The best way to predict the future . . .

[42N8Bounce]

Rudy doesn't have any college stats that the program can compare him to, but I can tell you some of the matches it found for Will Barton -
Michael Redd, Mike Miller, Shane Battier, and Thaddeus Young.

I found it interesting how similar the stats were this year for Jeremy Lamb and Will Barton. People are talking a lot about Lamb, but not so much about Barton.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Yep. I couldn't believe they went with Nolan Smith. Still can't believe it. I'm a believer in what the player actually produces. I don't care if he's short, skin color, fat, etc. I'm not a big believer in potential. If he's producing, get him. The knock on Faried was that he was too short. Hmm...

I feel the same way this year with Bradley Beal and Thomas Robinson.

 

[THE HCP]

So it's safe to call The HCP the Kenneth Faried of S2?

 

[jlprk]

Jae Crowder is certainly the name that jumps out in that list. It found matches with - Ronnie Brewer, Doug Christie, Dan Majerle, and Scott Burrell.

Those players would go 2nd in this draft? Must be a bad year.

Rudy doesn't have any college stats that the program can compare him to, but I can tell you some of the matches it found for Will Barton -
Michael Redd, Mike Miller, Shane Battier, and Thaddeus Young.

Those players would go 7th in this draft? Weak draft.

 

[42N8Bounce]

I feel the same way this year with Bradley Beal and Thomas Robinson.

Agreed. I'm scared a bit that the Blazers might be looking at Drummond. This program compared him to Kelvin Cato, Scot Pollard and Brian Skinner. But look at the "Potential"...

 

[jlprk]

See HCP, I take care of your needs.

 

[42N8Bounce]

Those players would go 2nd in this draft? Must be a bad year.



Those players would go 7th in this draft? Weak draft.

In my opinion, I think we have one (Anthony Davis) or perhaps two future all stars in this draft, and quite a few solid starters. The strength of this years draft is in it's depth of solid starters.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

I think if Sullinger didn't some of the injury issues/scares (back, one leg being 1-inch shorter) he'd be a lock to go in the top 10.

In his two seasons he averaged a PER of 30 and his WS are on par with Anthony Davis.

 

[42N8Bounce]

Those players would go 2nd in this draft? Must be a bad year.



Those players would go 7th in this draft? Weak draft.

Another thing to consider with this program is that it not only finds a player that is similar, but it then compares the stats of the NBA player and says the college player is +X% better than that individual, and modifies the BdB score appropriately (I put in a 22.5% threshold). Overall, it tends to "smooth out" the scores. For example, if a player is a Tim Duncan quality, there are only so many Tim Duncans that the database can find before it starts to pull lesser player out, and the average tends to drop. Similar to players on the low side averaging them up a bit.

 

[42N8Bounce]

I think if Sullinger didn't some of the injury issues/scares (back, one leg being 1-inch shorter) he'd be a lock to go in the top 10.

In his two seasons he averaged a PER of 30 and his WS are on par with Anthony Davis.

His height and weight scare a lot of people. I think he's a safe pick.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

The same things were said about Kevin Love.

And their combine numbers are nearly identical:

6'7.75" w/o shoes | Love: 6'7.75"
8'11" standing reach | Love: 8'10"
10.7 BF% | Love: 12.9 BF%

 

[42N8Bounce]

The same things were said about Kevin Love.

And their combine numbers are nearly identical:

6'7.75" w/o shoes | Love: 6'7.75"
8'11" standing reach | Love: 8'10"
10.7 BF% | Love: 12.9 BF%

Good comparison. Both also entered the draft with "fitness" issues. I'm very impressed with Love's drive for improvement. I thought he would be good, but I didn't think this good. He seems to improve his game each year.

 

[jlprk]

Those tables are hard to center on the page so I can read them.

Good job, 42N8. Is that your waist size? Do your friends just call you BdB?

 

[LameR]

How does the school affect the rank? Is it based on conference strength or does it compare the player to previous players at that school. For instance, does Crowder benefit from Wade coming from Marquette, and does Rivers get knocked down because of Nolan Smith, Jay Williams, etc.?

 

[BlazerBeav5]

While I appreciate your effort, I don't see the effectiveness of the program that you claim it to be. Nor do I see your top 10 as anything close to what the actual results will be a few years down the line. Looking at all of your ranks, you might have gotten one or two no brainer picks right, a vast majority were wrong.

 

[LameR]

While I appreciate your effort, I don't see the effectiveness of the program that you claim it to be. Nor do I see your top 10 as anything close to what the actual results will be a few years down the line. Looking at all of your ranks, you might have gotten one or two no brainer picks right, a vast majority were wrong.

He's not saying it's how it'll turn out, just that by crunching numbers it's what happened. Kinda like some of the Hollinger team stats. It's all based on numbers.

 

[BlazerBeav5]

I thought it was a prediction of how the players will turn out in the NBA?

 

[42N8Bounce]

Those tables are hard to center on the page so I can read them.

Good job, 42N8. Is that your waist size? Do your friends just call you BdB?

42N8 = "fortunate"

Yeah, it wouldn't let me upload a spreadsheet, so those jpgs were the best I could do. Just let me know if you can't read something and I'll do the best I can to explain it.

 

[42N8Bounce]

How does the school affect the rank? Is it based on conference strength or does it compare the player to previous players at that school. For instance, does Crowder benefit from Wade coming from Marquette, and does Rivers get knocked down because of Nolan Smith, Jay Williams, etc.?

It ranks each school with a strength of conference and adjusts the stats accordingly. For example, players in the ACC get a bit of a boost, and players in the Big Sky get a deduction.

 

[Blazinaway]

when we picked Oden was he #1 and Durant #2?

 

[42N8Bounce]

While I appreciate your effort, I don't see the effectiveness of the program that you claim it to be. Nor do I see your top 10 as anything close to what the actual results will be a few years down the line. Looking at all of your ranks, you might have gotten one or two no brainer picks right, a vast majority were wrong.

Stats certainly don't tell the entire story. You're right. And I don't claim that this program won't miss. It certainly will. But what I found interesting is that comparing it to the actual drafts, the GMs miss just as often.

Looking at the 2006 draft, the GMs picked (looking at college kids only) - LaMarcus Aldridge (80), Adam Morrison (20), Tyrus Thomas (40), Shelden Williams (30), Brandon Roy (90), Randy Foye (50), Rudy Gay (70), Patrick O'Bryant (10), JJ Redick (45), and Hilton Armstrong (20). My NBA success scores are in parenthesis. The talent the GMs got in their first 10 picks adds up to 455.

This program picked - Adam Morrison (20), Tyrus Thomas (40), Shelden Williams (30), Brandon Roy (90), LaMarcus Aldridge (80), Paul Millsap (70), Rajon Rondo (90), Kyle Lowry (55), Ronnie Brewer (50), and Paul Davis (15). The talent there adds up to 540. I think this program did a better job of picking talent in the top 10 than the GMs did. It missed Rudy Gay (ranked 13) and Randy Foye (ranked 38th), but the GMs missed Rajon Rondo (17th college kid picked) and Paul Millsap (38th college kid picked).

What we consider a "no brainer" pick today, certainly doesn't always turn out that way. The intent of this program is to give us another perspective. Take away many biases, and just give us the stats.

 

[42N8Bounce]

when we picked Oden was he #1 and Durant #2?

Here are the program picks for 2007 -

1. Greg Oden
2. Kevin Durant
3. Al Horford
4. Joakim Noah
5. Mike Conley, Jr.
6. Thaddeus Young
7. Brandon Wright
8. Jeff Green
9. Corey Brewer
10. Alando Tucker

Everyone at my work and home will tell you who I was personally rooting for that year. I made it well known. I was watching a game on tv (I can't even remember what game it was), and the color commentator was excellent. His analysis of the game was right on. He spoke with passion. At halftime I finally got a look at who it was. Kevin Durant was sitting in as a guest commentator. No question in my mind after that. That guy certainly knew the game, and was passionate about it. Well spoken.

Stats don't tell the whole story. But I certainly think they can get you pointed in the right direction.

 

[Mediocre Man]

So it's safe to call The HCP the Kenneth Faried of S2?

Well, Mrs HCP does say you are small, but a hard worker

 

[Mediocre Man]

As for he data.

It's obviously subjective because of injury, system and whatever made A_am fail as a pro. Still, great job

 

[42N8Bounce]

Some other names of note for this years draft -
* Dion Waiters at 16. Some rumors have Portland potentially giving him a promise, perhaps with the 11th pick. Not bad.
* Kendall Marshall at 21. Portland needs a point guard. This program shows him as a low end starter. Not bad for the 11th pick.
* Perry Jones at 27. I keep hearing the "Potential" work with this guy.
* Harrison Barnes at 40. That really surprised me. He looks better than that. This may be a miss on the program here.
* Royce White at 11. That guy has some interesting stats. 5 assist a game (3.8 turnovers), and 10.6 rebounds a game. The program compared him to David Lee and LaPhonso Ellis. I'm curious where he'll be drafted.

 

[42N8Bounce]

As for he data.

It's obviously subjective because of injury, system and whatever made A_am fail as a pro. Still, great job

I totally agree. If I've learned anything by creating the program, it's that there is more to these guys than just stats.

 

[Mediocre Man]

I totally agree. If I've learned anything by creating the program, it's that there is more to these guys than just stats.

I have been racking my feeble brain trying to figure out a way to determine why some bust and some break out. The stats method is good, but there is that one missing piece still.

 

[Nikolokolus]

His height and weight scare a lot of people. I think he's a safe pick.

I think he's safe from a talent/skill perspective, it's his projection for staying healthy that scares the fuck out of me.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Some other names of note for this years draft -
* Dion Waiters at 16. Some rumors have Portland potentially giving him a promise, perhaps with the 11th pick. Not bad.
* Kendall Marshall at 21. Portland needs a point guard. This program shows him as a low end starter. Not bad for the 11th pick.
* Perry Jones at 27. I keep hearing the "Potential" work with this guy.
* Harrison Barnes at 40. That really surprised me. He looks better than that. This may be a miss on the program here.
* Royce White at 11. That guy has some interesting stats. 5 assist a game (3.8 turnovers), and 10.6 rebounds a game. The program compared him to David Lee and LaPhonso Ellis. I'm curious where he'll be drafted.

If Royce White can get his fear of flying and his anxiety disorder under control I think he's going to be the steal of this draft (at around 20 or so where he's projected to go). Your system's assessment of Barnes makes me feel a little bit better about my own gut instincts with that guy. Just looks like another Marvin Williams or Martell Webster to me -- all hat and no cattle.

 

[DaLincolnJones]

Wow, this is some great stuff. Thank you for all of your time and effort to put this together, and for posting it on this board.