The Blazers' Big Three: Roy, LMA, and Miller (For Now)

[ABM]

From: HoopsWorld

Very often, the difference between a good NBA team and an elite, championship-caliber team comes down to whether or not the given team has three All-Star caliber players. The San Antonio Spurs have Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili; the LA Lakers have Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom; the Boston Celtics have Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce . . .and so on. In each case, the teams who most often compete for an NBA championship have three players who can get their own shots and make big plays down the stretch of games to lift their teams to victory.

A couple of days ago, while discussing the Portland Trail Blazers' talks with LaMarcus Aldridge and his importance as the Blazers' second foundational piece behind Brandon Roy, the question came up of who the Blazers' all-important third option is going forward. There are many who believe (or is it hope?) that Greg Oden will be that piece. And who wouldn't want to see the story play out that way? Oden came into the league with loads of potential, was derailed by injuries, and is fighting his way back. But the question isn't what we would like to see happen; the question is what do we think is likely to happen?

What seems most likely is that for the next 2-3 years Andre Miller will be Portland's third option.

"I actually can't argue with you there," says HOOPSWORLD's Wendell Maxey, who covers the Portland Trail Blazers and knows them as well as anyone. "It's a combination of Brandon, LaMarcus and Andre. They've never viewed Greg as an offensive threat or option, and have not deterred from their game plan that Greg should be about defense."

Miller, on the other hand, is more than capable of getting his own points in the flow of the offense, even if he's not the first option. He showed in Denver that he's happy to defer, when necessary, as he averaged between 8-9 assists per game from 2005-2007, and he averaged over ten assists per game as a Cleveland Cavalier early in his career. When the Philadelphia 76ers needed more scoring from him he averaged between 16-17 points per game while still handing out more than six dimes. He averaged 21.2 points and 5.3 assists against Orlando in the playoffs last April and also pulled down 6.3 rebounds per game. In short, Miller's the kind of point guard who can content himself with setting up Roy, Aldridge, and even Oden as long as they have it going, but can then change gears and score the ball when the offense needs him to do that. The Blazers may have flirted with Hedo Turkoglu and Paul Millsap, but Miller seems to be exactly what they needed to take things to the next level.

As for Oden, he'll be a big part of the Blazers' success, it just won't be on the offensive end. He's expected to be the enforcer, protecting the rim and cleaning the glass. He'll get some points, certainly, but he's not going to be the go-to guy. Andre Miller can be the third go-to guy in Portland's attack, and the belief in Rip City is that the Blazers are a deep playoff team now that they have their established third option in place.............

 

[Natebishop3]

I don't agree about Oden. I think Greg can and will score. He just needs a guard capable of getting him the ball.

 

[Blazer_Mullet_Man]

Oden can score IF he stays out of foul trouble....

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Running an ISO for Greg on the block is pretty hard to watch.

We really should run the offense at him like Chandler (when in N.O.) and Howard - purely P&R.

 

[mook]

A better comparison to the Blazers than those "Big 3" teams might be the Chris Webber Kings. You've got one guy who is clearly leagues better than everybody else on the team (Roy/Webber), a limited but very dangerous center (Oden/Miller), a quality secondary scorer (Aldridge/Peja), a role-playing defender who shoots threes (Batum/Christie) and a high quality point guard who fills in the holes (Miller/Bibby).

So the formula is basically the Big One plus two second bananas and a top 10 or so center.

Ours is a better defensive team, but that Sacramento team was probably more deadly on offense.

Anyway, yeah, Andre Miller is probably our third best player next year. He certainly played better in the playoffs than anybody on our team except for Roy and Aldridge.

 

[Bosco]

A better comparison to the Blazers than those "Big 3" teams might be the Chris Webber Kings. You've got one guy who is clearly leagues better than everybody else on the team (Roy/Webber), a limited but very dangerous center (Oden/Miller), a quality secondary scorer (Aldridge/Peja), a role-playing defender who shoots threes (Batum/Christie) and a high quality point guard who fills in the holes (Miller/Bibby).

So the formula is basically the Big One plus two second bananas and a top 10 or so center.

Ours is a better defensive team, but that Sacramento team was probably more deadly on offense.

Anyway, yeah, Andre Miller is probably our third best player next year. He certainly played better in the playoffs than anybody on our team except for Roy and Aldridge.

I think that's actually a pretty good comparison honestly in skill set in a lot of ways, although I would hope everyone agrees the talent levels don't match up.... One would hope anyway. Plus even if they were similar.... Our bench DESTROYS what they kings had during that time period.

 

[BBert]

A better comparison to the Blazers than those "Big 3" teams might be the Chris Webber Kings. You've got one guy who is clearly leagues better than everybody else on the team (Roy/Webber), a limited but very dangerous center (Oden/Miller), a quality secondary scorer (Aldridge/Peja), a role-playing defender who shoots threes (Batum/Christie) and a high quality point guard who fills in the holes (Miller/Bibby).

So the formula is basically the Big One plus two second bananas and a top 10 or so center.

Ours is a better defensive team, but that Sacramento team was probably more deadly on offense.

Anyway, yeah, Andre Miller is probably our third best player next year. He certainly played better in the playoffs than anybody on our team except for Roy and Aldridge.

Nice analogy. Even though you are not suggesting the player pairs have similar games, (except maybe Batum/Christie), I of course can't help but think about which players I'd rather have. So, donning my thick Rose Garden colored glasses:

I'll take Andre Miller over Bibby (never been a Bibby fan). Miller won't choke in the finals.

Oden over Miller -- yes, I mean that, even this year and certainly in two. Different players but Oden is the law and he will surprise some people this season (If Nate decides to use him correctly and he stays out of foul trouble). I'll take the defensive and rebounding monster every time.

Roy v. Webber: Good players. I'll take Roy -- the man is a winner. Unstoppable in the clutch. Roy against the world.

Christie clearly better than Batum -- for now, but not later. (Christie is in my BBall hall of fame for his punch that ended Rick Fox's credibility; and in my shame hall of fame for being so totally whipped by his crazy wife.)

Aldridge v. Peja: Interesting. Peja could seriously light it up. Aldridge provides an extremely talented and well rounded PF game. I'm going big over smaller.

In short, this biased Blazers fan expects bigger things from these Blazers than that Sacto team.

Go Blazers!

 

[THE HCP]

So Rudy is our 5th option??? Man, my Blazers are siiiiiiiiiiiiiiick! We are going to tear this league up for the next 10 years!

 

[mook]

I think that's actually a pretty good comparison honestly in skill set in a lot of ways, although I would hope everyone agrees the talent levels don't match up.... One would hope anyway. Plus even if they were similar.... Our bench DESTROYS what they kings had during that time period.

Bobby Jackson and Hedo were pretty damned good coming off the bench for that team.

That was a really, really good team. If they don't get jobbed by the refs in the "Ralph Nader" sixth, they probably win a championship that year. They had 61 and 59 win seasons.

Given that I'm predicting we win 60 games this year, if our team is as good as they were at their peak, I'll be pretty happy with myself.

 

[oldmangrouch]

I don't agree about Oden. I think Greg can and will score. He just needs a guard capable of getting him the ball.

IMHO, Oden will never be an offensive force on par with Shaq/Hakeem/Ewing. He will be dependent on, as you say, having a team-mate who is willing and able to set him up.

Oden will never be more than a 3rd or 4th option...but the team needs him to be at least a complimentary player on offense.

(can you tell I am REALLY happy about adding Miller? )

 

[Natebishop3]

IMHO, Oden will never be an offensive force on par with Shaq/Hakeem/Ewing. He will be dependent on, as you say, having a team-mate who is willing and able to set him up.

Oden will never be more than a 3rd or 4th option...but the team needs him to be at least a complimentary player on offense.

(can you tell I am REALLY happy about adding Miller? )

Yeah, but they make it sound like he isn't really an option on offense at all. I think Oden can be a force. We just need to use him correctly.

 

[anonymous gambler]

I think it's too early to say how good Oden will be offensively. If he regains his prior physique, then we've got someone who is bigger and stronger than other centers and, who, was better than Durant in the agility drills. There is serious offensive potential here, in my opinion. It's unfair to judge him on the first season coming back from microfracture surgery- let's see how he looks this season. He might be our 2nd option.

 

[Natebishop3]

I think it's too early to say how good Oden will be offensively. If he regains his prior physique, then we've got someone who is bigger and stronger than other centers and, who, was better than Durant in the agility drills. There is serious offensive potential here, in my opinion. It's unfair to judge him on the first season coming back from microfracture surgery- let's see how he looks this season. He might be our 2nd option.

That's how I feel. It astonishes me that some people actually think that Oden has had ample time to prove himself in the NBA.

 

[mook]

That's how I feel. It astonishes me that some people actually think that Oden has had ample time to prove himself in the NBA.

It's pretty ridiculous, isn't it.

I'd say Zach Randolph and Amare Stoudemire were probably around 80% of their true selves the year after microfracture.
Zach Randolph season following MF: 18.9 PER
One season later: 23.9 PER

Amare in season following MF: 23.1
One season later: 27.6

Those are pretty big jumps.

Greg Oden last season: 18.1

If he follows the pattern of Amare and Zach, he could be around 22-23. Kevin Durant, by way of comparison, had a PER of 20.8 last year.

He may not take that big of a leap. Those were pretty established players. But I'm looking for Oden to stay on the court longer by avoiding fouls, and I'm looking for him to be even more productive in his minutes. He's a legit MIP candidate.

 

[BBert]

Exactly mook. Plus those two were already established players. They'd alread paid some dues and learned on the NBA hardwood. Greg had his ROOKIE season WHILE recovering from the surgery, AND suffering another injury to start the season. I do expect him to improve at the same levels those guys did the following season, if not more. And he'll have more room to improve the year after. (Barring injury, of course.)

 

[Mediocre Man]

It's sad that one of our big three is a bench player.

 

[Funk-Tastic]

I think Andre Miller is an excellent addition to the team. When we signed him, I went to the Philly boards, and found some information on him. It seems as if the really educated philly fans wanted him to re-sign, but the not-so-ones, wanted Lou Williams to take over PG duties. Really, the problem is their management of the team, not the players. The "Ed's". LOL. Apparently, Philly fans can't stand the "Ed's".

As for Miller fitting in with our PTB's, I think he was the right fit. I almost thought he was the missing piece, but that missing piece is the improvement of anyone of these dudes: Batum, Oden, Webster. Anyone of those guys take off, just one, and that's the missing piece. I really hope all three can improve,and if they all do, we may be contenders.

Andre Miller should develop the team in the right mindset. He is Hungry too. And, I think he will also develope Roy's game.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

It'd be great if Andre can play at a high level for the next two/three years. When his contract expires and as he further declines hopefully we'll have a young replacement in place ready to take over.

 

[Natebishop3]

It'd be great if Andre can play at a high level for the next two/three years. When his contract expires and as he further declines hopefully we'll have a young replacement in place ready to take over.

I think he buys us a couple years to figure out our future at the point. Hopefully he can show KP how much we need an actual point guard.

 

[BIG Q]

Nice analogy. Even though you are not suggesting the player pairs have similar games, (except maybe Batum/Christie), I of course can't help but think about which players I'd rather have. So, donning my thick Rose Garden colored glasses:

I'll take Andre Miller over Bibby (never been a Bibby fan). Miller won't choke in the finals.

Oden over Miller -- yes, I mean that, even this year and certainly in two. Different players but Oden is the law and he will surprise some people this season (If Nate decides to use him correctly and he stays out of foul trouble). I'll take the defensive and rebounding monster every time.

Roy v. Webber: Good players. I'll take Roy -- the man is a winner. Unstoppable in the clutch. Roy against the world.

Christie clearly better than Batum -- for now, but not later. (Christie is in my BBall hall of fame for his punch that ended Rick Fox's credibility; and in my shame hall of fame for being so totally whipped by his crazy wife.)

Aldridge v. Peja: Interesting. Peja could seriously light it up. Aldridge provides an extremely talented and well rounded PF game. I'm going big over smaller.

In short, this biased Blazers fan expects bigger things from these Blazers than that Sacto team.

Go Blazers!

I didn't read all of the posts, but come on, Miller did not play with Webber. Divac was the center during Webbers run in Sactown.

 

[Public Defender]

I tend to agree that the Blazers are not a traditional "Big Three" team, yet. Andre Miller is solid, and a borderline All-Star, but if he were on the Celtics, or the Lakers, I don't think anyone would say he'd be even with Paul Pierce or Pau Gasol.

I don't know what the Blazers' winning formula is. Maybe it's more like the '99 Spurs, with a defensive stalwart in the middle in David Robinson (Greg Oden) and an emerging offensive stud in Tim Duncan (LaMarcus Aldridge). Where that breaks down is that the Spurs didn't have anyone who compares to Brandon Roy.

Or, maybe the Blazers are more like the Kings, as someone else mentioned, except the comparison mixes and matches different positions, and is sort of a weak analogy as a result.

Maybe the Blazers are like the Sonics of the early '90s, with Brandon Roy playing the role of decision-maker, perimeter stopper and clutch shot-maker that was Gary Payton in his prime, and LaMarcus Aldridge is the Second Coming of Shawn Kemp (without the extra-marital kids and the late-career weight problems, I hope...). But the Sonics didn't have a powerhouse in the middle like Greg Oden.

Or, maybe the Blazers are a cleaner version of the '99-'01 Blazers, when the team was basically stacked at every position, and simply overpowered teams with talent. The big problems with those teams was a lack of consistent, clutch play at both ends, because of some mental weaknesses or non-superstars being asked to do superstar things.

I think that analogy actually works the best - with Andre Miller being this team's Greg Anthony (only better), Brandon Roy as this team's Steve Smith (mentally tough, savvy, and versatile, but B-Roy being far more athletic), Nicolas Batum as this team's Scottie Pippen (Batum is developing many of the defensive skills of Pip - which was Scottie's most important role as a Blazer), LaMarcus Aldridge is Rasheed Wallace (only with a little better psyche and not quite the shooting range), and Greg Oden is the behemoth in the middle (having superior athleticism to the aging Arvydas, but not the shooting touch or court vision).

So long as the current Blazers can solve the bugaboos of those earlier teams - mental toughness, clutch play, leadership, and limits to the egos - the current squad could take the same kind of overwhelming talent at multiple positions approach, but win a championship. Eventually.

 

[gatorpops]

So Rudy is our 5th option??? Man, my Blazers are siiiiiiiiiiiiiiick! We are going to tear this league up for the next 10 years!

You may not know much basketball, but you sure got this post right HCP. Go Blazers!!!!

 

[BBert]

I didn't read all of the posts, but come on, Miller did not play with Webber. Divac was the center during Webbers run in Sactown.

I may be old and senile, but that doesn't mean you aren't right! My bad. I was focused on comparing the players listed on the preceding post and didn't think about it. I certainly remember Vlade. And I clearly remember that team being completely RIPPED OFF when they played the Lakers. It was disgusting.

 

[STOMP]

I tend to agree that the Blazers are not a traditional "Big Three" team, yet. Andre Miller is solid, and a borderline All-Star, but if he were on the Celtics, or the Lakers, I don't think anyone would say he'd be even with Paul Pierce or Pau Gasol.

I don't know what the Blazers' winning formula is. Maybe it's more like the '99 Spurs, with a defensive stalwart in the middle in David Robinson (Greg Oden) and an emerging offensive stud in Tim Duncan (LaMarcus Aldridge). Where that breaks down is that the Spurs didn't have anyone who compares to Brandon Roy.

Or, maybe the Blazers are more like the Kings, as someone else mentioned, except the comparison mixes and matches different positions, and is sort of a weak analogy as a result.

Maybe the Blazers are like the Sonics of the early '90s, with Brandon Roy playing the role of decision-maker, perimeter stopper and clutch shot-maker that was Gary Payton in his prime, and LaMarcus Aldridge is the Second Coming of Shawn Kemp (without the extra-marital kids and the late-career weight problems, I hope...). But the Sonics didn't have a powerhouse in the middle like Greg Oden.

Or, maybe the Blazers are a cleaner version of the '99-'01 Blazers, when the team was basically stacked at every position, and simply overpowered teams with talent. The big problems with those teams was a lack of consistent, clutch play at both ends, because of some mental weaknesses or non-superstars being asked to do superstar things.

I think that analogy actually works the best - with Andre Miller being this team's Greg Anthony (only better), Brandon Roy as this team's Steve Smith (mentally tough, savvy, and versatile, but B-Roy being far more athletic), Nicolas Batum as this team's Scottie Pippen (Batum is developing many of the defensive skills of Pip - which was Scottie's most important role as a Blazer), LaMarcus Aldridge is Rasheed Wallace (only with a little better psyche and not quite the shooting range), and Greg Oden is the behemoth in the middle (having superior athleticism to the aging Arvydas, but not the shooting touch or court vision).

So long as the current Blazers can solve the bugaboos of those earlier teams - mental toughness, clutch play, leadership, and limits to the egos - the current squad could take the same kind of overwhelming talent at multiple positions approach, but win a championship. Eventually.

a younger version of the 2003-4 Pistons

STOMP