The Current Blazers Dark Ages

[42N8Bounce]

How long will these current Blazers Dark Ages last?

Looking at the cycles of a franchise, 'rebuilding' rarely takes just a couple of years.



So many questions:
- Have the Blazers hit bottom?
- When will they make the playoffs next?
- When will they have their next all-star?
- Will the Blazers win a championship in the lifetime of my grandkids?

I don't know if the Blazers can realistically get all of the pieces they need thru the draft. Tanking rarely builds a long term contender unless you get really lucky with the ping pong balls and don't select that bust that seems to be in every draft. Free agency has never been a successful route for Portland. Cronin has impressed me so far grabbing Camara and Deni thru trades.

I'm looking forward to the days when I stop saying 'that was a good loss'.

 

[Stevenson]

Between 3 shitty Covid years / crossing paths with 3 tanks, I think this is the last year of the worst. We get who we get in the draft (unlikely Flagg), and it's time to head back up with a very solid, albeit young, core.

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

Between 3 shitty Covid years / crossing paths with 3 tanks, I think this is the last year of the worst. We get who we get in the draft (unlikely Flagg), and it's time to head back up with a very solid, albeit young, core.

Thats how I'm seeing it as well.

 

[kjironman1]

They screwed up two years ago and got nuthin last year. Sharpe might pan out to be a decent player. They have literally blown the tank by keeping some veterans way too long. Now the value of those vets has dropped significantly.
I don’t know? This doesn’t even seem like bottom yet. They still need to fire the coach. Fire the GM and sell the team.
You ain’t seen nothing yet!

 

[42N8Bounce]

They screwed up two years ago and got nuthin last year. Sharpe might pan out to be a decent player. They have literally blown the tank by keeping some veterans way too long. Now the value of those vets has dropped significantly.
I don’t know? This doesn’t even seem like bottom yet. They still need to fire the coach. Fire the GM and sell the team.
You ain’t seen nothing yet!

Not since the Blazers first 4 seasons (1971-74) has the team had 4 consecutive 33 or less win seasons (40.2%). This year it looks like the Blazers will tie that mark. And unfortunately there are very few indicators that the Blazers won't set the record and make it 5 next year (ugh).

I'm excited about Sharpe. I love it that he's stayed healthy and has shown good progress this year. He's fun to watch.

I'm excited about Avdija. He may not be a classic star player, but I love what he does on the court. He fills the stat sheet and seems to be a great team player doing whatever it takes to help the team win.

I'm excited about Camara. With him coming into the league at 23 yo, he's show great year-2 progress. That tells me he's got a solid work ethic and may continue to show improvement over the coming years. And he comes to play with 100% effort every night.

After that, it's all youth and potential. And a couple vets that aren't going to bring the team to the next level.

 

[KingSpeed]

We’ll be fine. We’re not even all that bad. We’ve won like 4 of our last 10. Sharpe is definitely a future All Star. OKC tanked three years in a row and now they’re on pace for a 70 win season. Rockets rebounded from Harden trade quickly. We could be the Pistons next year. Mavs picked up Luka by tanking as Dirk retired. Sixers haven’t gotten to the promised land but they did draft an MVP by tanking multiple years. Be patient. It’s coming together for us. I’d rather be us than Phoenix or GS right now. Phoenix really blew it.

 

[KingSpeed]

The Future:

 

[Foxx]

We’ll be fine. We’re not even all that bad. We’ve won like 4 of our last 10. Sharpe is definitely a future All Star. OKC tanked three years in a row and now they’re on pace for a 70 win season. Rockets rebounded from Harden trade quickly. We could be the Pistons next year. Mavs picked up Luka by tanking as Dirk retired. Sixers haven’t gotten to the promised land but they did draft an MVP by tanking multiple years. Be patient. It’s coming together for us. I’d rather be us than Phoenix or GS right now. Phoenix really blew it.

You get it. We are also building a nice chest of draft picks that hopefully will be supplemented by some of these vets that are just sitting around collecting checks. We’re in good shape, just need to keep building and chipping away at building a complete roster.

The teams given the vets ample chance to show if they’re worth keeping around as well. Clearly Timelord (the most tradeable) also fits in the best, so we’ll just have to take what we can get for everyone.

 

[THE HCP]

Not since the Blazers first 4 seasons (1971-74) has the team had 4 consecutive 33 or less win seasons (40.2%). This year it looks like the Blazers will tie that mark. And unfortunately there are very few indicators that the Blazers won't set the record and make it 5 next year (ugh).

I'm excited about Sharpe. I love it that he's stayed healthy and has shown good progress this year. He's fun to watch.

I'm excited about Avdija. He may not be a classic star player, but I love what he does on the court. He fills the stat sheet and seems to be a great team player doing whatever it takes to help the team win.

I'm excited about Camara. With him coming into the league at 23 yo, he's show great year-2 progress. That tells me he's got a solid work ethic and may continue to show improvement over the coming years. And he comes to play with 100% effort every night.

After that, it's all youth and potential. And a couple vets that aren't going to bring the team to the next level.

View attachment 69721

Here is @THE HCP ’s nightly check list while watching a game….
He walks away happy IF the following occurs…
-Shae is aggressive and puts up some good numbers
-Scoot plays well
-Clingan looks halfway good rebounding, setting screens and blocking shots. And looks like he will be a serviceable starting center in the league in a couple years in the way Steven Adams WAS
-Camara continues to grow on both ends
-BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY WE LOSE!!!!!!!!

 

[42N8Bounce]

Here is @THE HCP ’s nightly check list while watching a game….
He walks away happy IF the following occurs…
-Shae is aggressive and puts up some good numbers
-Scoot plays well
-Clingan looks halfway good rebounding, setting screens and blocking shots. And looks like he will be a serviceable starting center in the league in a couple years in the way Steven Adams WAS
-Camara continues to grow on both ends
-BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY WE LOSE!!!!!!!!

Wow. Very well stated.
I agree with everything up to the last line. I don’t mind loses, but I’m always rooting for the Blazers to win.

 

[riverman]

Don't believe for a second in tanking to get better...it sucks the joy out of competitive sports if you see an obvious tank job. The greatest all star prep there is is making the playoffs...that's where the greatness is achieved. This is for me the worst stretch of Blazer ball I can remember. Problem is, we have talent, just not leadership. The draft is not the answer ...Zion has zero rings if I'm not mistaken. Ayton was a number one pick and zero rings as well. The new cap rules have stopped the trader Joe allstar swap meet that was happening in the past...most teams aren't taking on big money deals anymore. We have an inexperienced coach with no playbook and no endgame and a culture of losing big. There's no guarantee even with the worst record in the league that you'll get the number one pick anymore..see Atlanta last year.

 

[Phatguysrule]

Don't believe for a second in tanking to get better...it sucks the joy out of competitive sports if you see an obvious tank job. The greatest all star prep there is is making the playoffs...that's where the greatness is achieved. This is for me the worst stretch of Blazer ball I can remember. Problem is, we have talent, just not leadership. The draft is not the answer ...Zion has zero rings if I'm not mistaken. Ayton was a number one pick and zero rings as well. The new cap rules have stopped the trader Joe allstar swap meet that was happening in the past...most teams aren't taking on big money deals anymore. We have an inexperienced coach with no playbook and no endgame and a culture of losing big. There's no guarantee even with the worst record in the league that you'll get the number onee pick anymore..see Atlanta last year.

Championships are won by all Stars. The vast majority of all stars are picked high in the draft (we've gone over these numbers in the past. You something like twice as likely to pick an all-star in the top five picks as you are in the next 15 picks). In today's NBA a non-destination teen can only add to it's talent level via the draft (or by getting lucky and fleecing a team in a trade).

I agree, that coaches should not be making subs to lose games. Players should also not be trying to lose games.

Management should be guaranteeing that we don't have enough vets who are just good enough to win games against bad teams. That should be priority number one.

Trading those vets for more draft picks and talent should be priority number two. If we can't get draft picks and young talent out of those players then you need to trade them anyway.

You have to get those guys out of the way of our young guns.

I'm not rooting them for to lose in any game. But at this point winning games hurts us more than it helps.

 

[riverman]

Championships are won by all Stars. The vast majority of all stars are picked high in the draft (we've gone over these numbers in the past. You something like twice as likely to pick an all-star in the top five picks as you are in the next 15 picks). In today's NBA a non-destination teen can only add to it's talent level via the draft (or by getting lucky and fleecing a team in a trade).

I agree, that coaches should not be making subs to lose games. Players should also not be trying to lose games.

Management should be guaranteeing that we don't have enough vets who are just good enough to win games against bad teams. That should be priority number one.

Trading those vets for more draft picks and talent should be priority number two. If we can't get draft picks and young talent out of those players then you need to trade them anyway.

You have to get those guys out of the way of our young guns.

I'm not rooting them for to lose in any game. But at this point winning games hurts us more than it helps.

I disagree...losing and missing the playoffs does not help develop your rookies and jump start their allstar chances or build a culture of winning...it produces paycheck coaches and paycheck players who won't sacrifice to win. Teams that give the bag to all-stars have guys like Banton buried on the bench...that's where you can build a roster if you are not a player destination market aka Portland. Our best two players were traded for in Camara and Avdija

 

[KingSpeed]

riverman- first, the players are trying to win and I’m rooting for them to win. I even pay attention to how close we are to making the play-in. BUT, when we do lose, it’s better for our future. You say we can’t build a winner through the draft? Then how do propose we DO build a winner? You don’t get to bash tanking while also rooting for Shaedon, Scoot, and Clingan. How do you think we got those guys? Cuban flat out told his team it was better to lose in 2018 and guess what they got? Luka Doncic and a trip to the 2024 NBA Finals! No, we can’t control getting the #1 pick, but let’s get a good chance at it. There is more than one future All Star in this draft. If we shut everyone down in March, that is why. Or would you prefer we give Shaedon, Scoot, and Clingan back to the basketball Gods and try to win a title with Ant and Jerami? That ain’t happening no matter how many times you fire the coach.

 

[Phatguysrule]

I disagree...losing and missing the playoffs does not help develop your rookies and jump start their allstar chances or build a culture of winning...it produces paycheck coaches and paycheck players who won't sacrifice to win. Teams that give the bag to all-stars have guys like Banton buried on the bench...that's where you can build a roster if you are not a player destination market aka Portland. Our best two players were traded for in Camara and Avdija

Most all stars miss the playoffs their first couple years. That's just kinda the way it goes unless you get a hall of famer.

Neither Camara or Avdija are leading any team to a championship if they are the best players.

 

[Strenuus]

I'm just hoping to make a playoff (not just make it into the play in) by the end of the decade and the ways things is going i don't know.

"Telll meeee whyyyy are weee, so bliiiind to see, that the oneeees they hurt, are yoooou and me."

Sorry, I had to.

 

[Hoopguru]

I'm just hoping to make a playoff (not just make it into the play in) by the end of the decade and the ways things is going i don't know.

"Telll meeee whyyyy are weee, so bliiiind to see, that the oneeees they hurt, are yoooou and me."

Sorry, I had to.

end of the decade?

 

[Hoopguru]

WE could still end up bottom 5 or so. Lot of season left...

 

[Strenuus]

end of the decade?

I think that's pretty fair? We haven't shown anything to warrant being nothing but a borderline play in team at best, have we not?

 

[Phatguysrule]

WE could still end up bottom 5 or so. Lot of season left...

Fingers crossed

 

[riverman]

riverman- first, the players are trying to win and I’m rooting for them to win. I even pay attention to how close we are to making the play-in. BUT, when we do lose, it’s better for our future. You say we can’t build a winner through the draft? Then how do propose we DO build a winner? You don’t get to bash tanking while also rooting for Shaedon, Scoot, and Clingan. How do you think we got those guys? Cuban flat out told his team it was better to lose in 2018 and guess what they got? Luka Doncic and a trip to the 2024 NBA Finals! No, we can’t control getting the #1 pick, but let’s get a good chance at it. There is more than one future All Star in this draft. If we shut everyone down in March, that is why. Or would you prefer we give Shaedon, Scoot, and Clingan back to the basketball Gods and try to win a title with Ant and Jerami? That ain’t happening no matter how many times you fire the coach.

I'm not saying you don't draft well...Camara is a late second round pick...he's way better than guys picked ahead of him. I'm saying you trade well and scout chemistry and yes...that tanking is not a winning philosophy...not many folks think it's gambling like I do but I like sure bets. Ant was a draft pick and Jerami was signed to put talent around Dame and I'll tell you this much, I'd trade Scoot to the Bucks for Dame tomorrow and enjoy the playoffs year after year. I don't want to go the Kings route to winning. I think we build a winner through team chemistry and good coaching. I'm old Eric....at 70 the future for me is a smaller window than the future for you my friend. I want Ant gone...I like the guys we have but they're not building winning habits in the 4th quarter of games and the vets are always injured as it is. Four years of tanking isn't impressing me much so far. Our trades have been pretty good recently though after the Dame assets were moved around. I think we have the best bench we've had in a long time. For what it's worth, the stat loving arm chair GMs amongst the fan base all agree with you. Nice thing about being old and retired is I actually do get to bash tanking in basketball ..choices

 

[kjironman1]

Camara is a late second round pick...he's way better than guys picked ahead of him.

Sorry river but no. He is not better than most of the lottery picks. The fact that he is 24 gives me pause to even say he is better than our 3rd pick.
I do agree you can find some gems in the second round obviously but banking on it would be insane. He certainly is not better than the lotto picks that will be taken in this years draft class.

 

[wizenheimer]

Sorry river but no. He is not better than most of the lottery picks. The fact that he is 24 gives me pause to even say he is better than our 3rd pick.
I do agree you can find some gems in the second round obviously but banking on it would be insane. He certainly is not better than the lotto picks that will be taken in this years draft class.

agreed...besides that, the Blazers didn't take Camara in the 2nd round, Phoenix did.

Since Olshey was named GM 13 years ago, the best player Portland has taken in the 2nd round has probably been Will Barton

not only that, Portland's success outside of the top-10 has been pretty limited over the last 15 years:

#22 - Victor Claver
#22 - Eliott Williams
#21 - Nolan Smith
#11 - Meyers Leonard
#26 - Caleb Swanigan
#24 - Anfernee Simons
#25 - Nassir Little
#23 - Kris Murray

doesn't instill a lot of confidence although you'd need to gauge by who else was available when those picks were made

 

[42N8Bounce]

Sorry river but no. He is not better than most of the lottery picks. The fact that he is 24 gives me pause to even say he is better than our 3rd pick.
I do agree you can find some gems in the second round obviously but banking on it would be insane. He certainly is not better than the lotto picks that will be taken in this years draft class.

You bring up some interesting points. I consider Shaedon and Avdija part of the Blazers future core. Let’s call that ‘tier 1’. I consider Camara right in that fringe. I then have Scoot and Clingan in the ‘show me’ tier 2 level..

I don’t give a lot of weight to potential. Where a guy was drafted only matters to me on draft night.

Yes, Camara’s age is a factor. But I’m also impressed that he put in the time in the off season and continued to improve his game. That’s a valuable character trait at any age.

 

[Foxx]

Only on the internet is being a 24 year old yet in his prime a bad thing

 

[Phatguysrule]

Only on the internet is being a 24 year old yet in his prime a bad thing

It's not bad. It just means that at his age and experience he probably doesn't have a ton of growth left.

There is nothing wrong with that, at all. Camara will just probably never be star player. He's fantastic and I'm personally incredibly pleased with him.

 

[kjironman1]

Only on the internet is being a 24 year old yet in his prime a bad thing

That's what you took from that?

 

[riverman]

I always say it's not the years, it's the miles....Banton is like buying a car several years old with 2k miles on it. I also believe Camara is a better player today than Scoot, Murray, Clingan and Sharpe so I'll stick to the idea that a bottom of the barrel 2nd round pick can be more NBA ready than many 1st round lottery picks...Ayton was a first round pick. This draft has a lot of good options, sure. Being the worst team though now doesn't guarantee you get Cooper Flagg and like everyone I'd love to get Flagg next draft but won't hold my breath that we will. after their rookie season we'll be able to better gauge how good this upcoming draft class translates to the Wemby joining the NBA or how many become Adam Morrison

 

[42N8Bounce]

Only on the internet is being a 24 year old yet in his prime a bad thing

I put this together a few years ago -



Ages 25 -28 are the most productive for an NBA player.

Here's a look at this year's Blazers:


The average age of the Blazers is below the peak 4 years of productivity. Hopefully this is an indication of fruitful years to come...

 

[Phatguysrule]

I always say it's not the years, it's the miles....Banton is like buying a car several years old with 2k miles on it. I also believe Camara is a better player today than Scoot, Murray, Clingan and Sharpe so I'll stick to the idea that a bottom of the barrel 2nd round pick can be more NBA ready than many 1st round lottery picks...Ayton was a first round pick. This draft has a lot of good options, sure. Being the worst team though now doesn't guarantee you get Cooper Flagg and like everyone I'd love to get Flagg next draft but won't hold my breath that we will.

The biggest obstacle between us and winning is talent.

Being the worst team now gives us the best odds of adding the most talent.

There are no guarantees.