The Current Blazers Dark Ages

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There's a lot of mileage difference between 25 year old Banton and 25 year old Ant as well as 24 year old Deni vs 24 year old Murray using my used car method of scouting players.
 
42N8Bounce said:
I put this together a few years ago -

View attachment 69742

Ages 25 -28 are the most productive for an NBA player.

Here's a look at this year's Blazers:
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The average age of the Blazers is below the peak 4 years of productivity. Hopefully this is an indication of fruitful years to come...
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I'm curious about that top chart

was that based upon all NBA players?....drafted players?...1st round?

I know it would have been crunching way too much data, but what would make that chart more revealing is a comparison between PG's-Wings-Bigs to see if those prime years might be more of a sliding scale than fixed scale. Maybe by height as well. For example, I'd think a 20 year old 6'3 player would be more advanced along that prime-year scale than a 20 year old 7 footer
 
wizenheimer said:
I'm curious about that top chart

was that based upon all NBA players?....drafted players?...1st round?

I know it would have been crunching way too much data, but what would make that chart more revealing is a comparison between PG's-Wings-Bigs to see if those prime years might be more of a sliding scale than fixed scale. Maybe by height as well. For example, I'd think a 20 year old 6'3 player would be more advanced along that prime-year scale than a 20 year old 7 footer
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It's been a few years since I crunched those numbers, but if I remember correctly it was based on all nba players (with a minimum number of minutes played).

Yeah, interesting. I would be curious if that prime range does fluctuate based on position or height. With the way the nba is moving, classifying position is getting more and more difficult. So many players slide between 2-3 positions now. Height might be a bit more direct to calculate...
 
Phatguysrule said:
The biggest obstacle between us and winning is talent.

Being the worst team now gives us the best odds of adding the most talent.

There are no guarantees.
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No guarantees is for sure. The ping-pong balls can screw you, and the 'bust' specter can haunt you.

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Being in the top 5 certainly helps. The odds drop off significantly after 10. But there are always gems sprinkled into the late first round and into the second...
 
42N8Bounce said:
No guarantees is for sure. The ping-pong balls can screw you, and the 'bust' specter can haunt you.

View attachment 69751

Being in the top 5 certainly helps. The odds drop off significantly after 10. But there are always gems sprinkled into the late first round and into the second...
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Absolutely. And I would advocate for us having the best possible draft crew to find those gems.

I would absolutely not count on finding them as a part of my talent acquisition plan.

If we're able to find and develop those guys into contribitors or stars that's a bonus, IMO.
 
42N8Bounce said:
No guarantees is for sure. The ping-pong balls can screw you, and the 'bust' specter can haunt you.

View attachment 69751

Being in the top 5 certainly helps. The odds drop off significantly after 10. But there are always gems sprinkled into the late first round and into the second...
Click to expand...

Some just scoot on in.
 
BlazerWookee said:
A high draft pick should be small consolation for a losing season, not a goal.

Fuck the draft. Play to win, period.
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I agree, from a coach and player perspective.

From a management perspective, in the currwnt NBA, if you fuck the draft you are playing to lose.
 
barfo said:
"The "Dark Ages" are generally considered to have lasted around 900 years"

Seems about right.

barfo
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False. The Dark Ages were from the 5th to the 10th centuries.
 
riverman said:
I always say it's not the years, it's the miles....Banton is like buying a car several years old with 2k miles on it. I also believe Camara is a better player today than Scoot, Murray, Clingan and Sharpe so I'll stick to the idea that a bottom of the barrel 2nd round pick can be more NBA ready than many 1st round lottery picks...Ayton was a first round pick. This draft has a lot of good options, sure. Being the worst team though now doesn't guarantee you get Cooper Flagg and like everyone I'd love to get Flagg next draft but won't hold my breath that we will. after their rookie season we'll be able to better gauge how good this upcoming draft class translates to the Wemby joining the NBA or how many become Adam Morrison
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but you know what the narrative will be? That Cronin should be fired because if we would have lost a few more games, we coulda had Flagg…
 
Unfortunately we're nowhere close. I was way more optimistic in the Juan Dixon era.

The Wizards are about the only worse roster than us and they even have better picks - as well as committed to a direction.

Of course getting a stud in the draft one of these years would help a ton, I was hoping Scoot or Sharpe might be that but they're not. Every year I always hope there's a chance, but odds are probably against us in 2025 especially since we already have a dozen wins.

Even with a stud we need another great pick and we need to build up assets to trade for that final piece. We have zero of those three items needed to build a playoff winner. All we have are role players, overpaid vets, and young guys with "potential". But we don't have that elite stud potential. We have the guys a hometown fan roots for and the rest of the league disregards.

My fear is ownership gets impatient and we basically become a West version of what the Bulls were the last half decade, certainly not winning but no longer even getting good picks.

I'd guess 2032 is about the break even year of when we'll likely win a playoff series again. It was what 15 year from Sheed to Dame so if things go bad if might be closer to 2035 or later.

The poor ownership is the single biggest factor but of course GM, talent, lack of draft assets, market are all factors too.

Just a very dark era to be a fan of this franchise and I often question why I even bother.
 
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SharpesTriumph said:
Unfortunately we're nowhere close. I was way more optimistic in the Juan Dixon era.

The Wizards are about the only worse roster than us and they even have better picks - as well as committed to a direction.

Of course getting a stud in the draft one of these years would help a ton, I was hoping Scoot or Sharpe might be that but they're not. Every year I always hope there's a chance, but odds are probably against us in 2025 especially since we already have a dozen wins.

Even with a stud we need another great pick and we need to build up assets to trade for that final piece. We have zero of those three items needed to build a playoff winner. All we have are role players, overpaid vets, and young guys with "potential". But we don't have that elite potential, we have the guys a hometown fans roots for and the rest of the league disregards.

My fear is ownership gets impatient and we basically become a West version of what the Bulls were the last half decade, certainly not winning but no longer even getting good picks.

I'd guess 2032 is about the break even year of when we'll likely win a playoff series again. It was what 15 year from Sheed to Dame so if things go bad if might be closer to 2035 or later.

The poor ownership is the single biggest factor but of course GM, talent, lack of draft assets, market are all factors too.

Just a very dark era to be a fan of this franchise and I often question why I even bother.
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Agree on all accounts.
Except I don't wonder why I'm a fan. I have spent too much time and emotions with too many ups and downs with this team to stop caring.

I'll always want them to do well and be excited when they do.

I just can't invest a ton of time or money in them.
 
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42N8Bounce said:
No guarantees is for sure. The ping-pong balls can screw you, and the 'bust' specter can haunt you.

View attachment 69751

Being in the top 5 certainly helps. The odds drop off significantly after 10. But there are always gems sprinkled into the late first round and into the second...
Click to expand...
That 8th pick sure has it's problems.
Weird how that second pick drops so drastically.
 
SharpeScooterShooter said:
but you know what the narrative will be? That Cronin should be fired because if we would have lost a few more games, we coulda had Flagg…
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If they are in the bottom 4 at the end what else could he have actually done? It's the 27 wins that end up with the 8th pick that would hurt.
 
I'll get excited when they give me something exciting.

Right now, short or long term none of it is exciting. And that sucks. But they'll be back and I'll be back. How the world turns.
 
Strenuus said:
That'd be a disingenuous narrative though. It's a lottery for a reason.
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I never said I agreed, but ive been here long enough to know what will be the narrative for some. “Four more losses and we would have had four more percent to get him! Major Cronin snd Chauncey fail!”
 
kjironman1 said:
If they are in the bottom 4 at the end what else could he have actually done? It's the 27 wins that end up with the 8th pick that would hurt.
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27 wins can net us the first pick. See last years draft.
Four more wins not being losses will be at the center of some people’s outrage.
 
What I see is Joe is doing what Joe said he was going to do. Rebuild as quickly as possible. If the Blazers get the #1 pick this year it probably will be sooner than if they continue to get 6th and 7 th picks. Thing is he can only control so much?
 
kjironman1 said:
What I see is Joe is doing what Joe said he was going to do. Rebuild as quickly as possible. If the Blazers get the #1 pick this year it probably will be sooner than if they continue to get 6th and 7 th picks. Thing is he can only control so much?
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I don't see how having overpaid vets like Ayton, Ant, Grant, Thybulle earning 10-35 million each provides any benefit to doing a "rebuild as quickly as possible".
 
Strenuus said:
I think that's pretty fair? We haven't shown anything to warrant being nothing but a borderline play in team at best, have we not?
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Sure we have. We’ve won 4 of our last 10 games. We have promising young players. We’ll get another one this year. Look at how the Pistons were a couple years ago. Look at how they are now.
 
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riverman said:
I'm not saying you don't draft well...Camara is a late second round pick...he's way better than guys picked ahead of him. I'm saying you trade well and scout chemistry and yes...that tanking is not a winning philosophy...not many folks think it's gambling like I do but I like sure bets. Ant was a draft pick and Jerami was signed to put talent around Dame and I'll tell you this much, I'd trade Scoot to the Bucks for Dame tomorrow and enjoy the playoffs year after year. I don't want to go the Kings route to winning. I think we build a winner through team chemistry and good coaching. I'm old Eric....at 70 the future for me is a smaller window than the future for you my friend. I want Ant gone...I like the guys we have but they're not building winning habits in the 4th quarter of games and the vets are always injured as it is. Four years of tanking isn't impressing me much so far. Our trades have been pretty good recently though after the Dame assets were moved around. I think we have the best bench we've had in a long time. For what it's worth, the stat loving arm chair GMs amongst the fan base all agree with you. Nice thing about being old and retired is I actually do get to bash tanking in basketball ..choices
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If you want to see a good team soon, we must stay the course. Dame ain’t coming back and if he did, we still wouldn’t be a winning team. Don’t worry. We’ll have a really good team in about two years. You’re only 70. I’m 50. We have no idea when we die so there is no set window.
 
BlazerWookee said:
A high draft pick should be small consolation for a losing season, not a goal.

Fuck the draft. Play to win, period.
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Cleveland’s goal was LeBron
San Antonio’s goals were Duncan and VW
Dallas’ goal was Luka
 
SharpesTriumph said:
Unfortunately we're nowhere close. I was way more optimistic in the Juan Dixon era.

The Wizards are about the only worse roster than us and they even have better picks - as well as committed to a direction.

Of course getting a stud in the draft one of these years would help a ton, I was hoping Scoot or Sharpe might be that but they're not. Every year I always hope there's a chance, but odds are probably against us in 2025 especially since we already have a dozen wins.

Even with a stud we need another great pick and we need to build up assets to trade for that final piece. We have zero of those three items needed to build a playoff winner. All we have are role players, overpaid vets, and young guys with "potential". But we don't have that elite stud potential. We have the guys a hometown fan roots for and the rest of the league disregards.

My fear is ownership gets impatient and we basically become a West version of what the Bulls were the last half decade, certainly not winning but no longer even getting good picks.

I'd guess 2032 is about the break even year of when we'll likely win a playoff series again. It was what 15 year from Sheed to Dame so if things go bad if might be closer to 2035 or later.

The poor ownership is the single biggest factor but of course GM, talent, lack of draft assets, market are all factors too.

Just a very dark era to be a fan of this franchise and I often question why I even bother.
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You’ve given up on Scoot and esp Sharpe way too quickly.
 
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