The election results thread

[maxiep]

Oregon population: 3.825 million

Oregon votes counted as of around 10:30 PM, just over 1 million

Duds ahead 531,000 to 512,000 at 11:24pm (roughly)

Multnomah Co. population: 714, 567

If only 50% of Multnomah Co. is counted, that leaves: 357, 283 to count, at 72% turnout statewide (which is what I'm reading) means: 257,243 not counted in Multnomah Co. Let's say 70% of those votes are Dems, which might be low, Kitz is going to get another 180,000 votes, roughly. Yeah. Duds is dead. Please check my math, cuz I suck at it. Basic idea? If only 50% of Multnomah Co. votes are in, Duds is dead. Unless I made a huge error somewhere, which is possible. Because I really do suck at math.

I'm not going to check your math, but looking at the county reporting percentages, I'm inclined to agree with your conclusion: Dr. Kitzhaber, Medicine Governor.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

Re: Re: The election results thread

Wow, good luck California with Governor Moonbeam. That victory speech was a string of non-sequiors.

Basically alludes to green energy and letting illegals get grant money, resident tuition and spots in colleges. Yay moonbeam

 

[maxiep]

Rossi's pulled it to 50/50 with 62% counted

I've written that one off. He needed to be much further ahead before the King County Election Commission had a chance to work its magic.

It's Mike Bennet that sticks in my craw. He had his kids walking around with campaign signs during Halloween. That guy is a tool, but he's going to win.

 

[maxiep]

And Andy Levy from Red Eye drops the bomb!

 

[Natebishop3]

Are you kidding? Sizemore? Dudley? Yeah, they suck THAT bad.



Because of the national economy. Most other states are in shambles too.



And the last time we had a republican governor? Unemployment in OR was higher than it is today.



And your evidence for this is? [I'll admit, I'm being argumentative here - if you'd said they were great I'd argue that they sucked. But still, you should explain why you think they have no clue.]

barfo

Because they're politicians.... they all suck. Name me one good one? I dare you.

 

[Natebishop3]

And Andy Levy from Red Eye drops the bomb!

Salt, meet wound.

 

[Natebishop3]

It's a good thing so much of the state wants Kitzhaber.

 

[barfo]

Because they're politicians.... they all suck. Name me one good one? I dare you.

Well, you have a point there - but then that's no reason to replace one set with another set.

barfo

 

[barfo]

The state of Oregon has spoken! Your next Governor will be John Kitzhaber!!!!!!!!!!! Good thing the majority of the state wants him

If only we voted by acreage, like the old days, huh...

barfo

 

[Natebishop3]

If only we voted by acreage, like the old days, huh...

barfo

But..... there's people in them there hills!

 

[barfo]

But..... there's people in them there hills!

Them's not people. Them's raw ingredients for the Soylent Green factory.

barfo

 

[Natebishop3]

Them's not people. Them's raw ingredients for the Soylent Green factory.

barfo

Gotta feed our growing population of progressives SOMETHING or we'll all starve!

 

[barfo]

My current projections show Kitz winning by a mere 7000 votes. Margin of error on extrapolation is at least that large.

barfo

 

[Natebishop3]

John Kitzhaber (Democrat) 562,095 47.60%
Chris Dudley (Republican) 584,198 49.47%

This is from the Sec of State, as of 3:16 am.

 

[Natebishop3]

Duds is pulling away.

John Kitzhaber (Democrat) 562,901 47.57%
Chris Dudley (Republican) 585,626 49.49%

As of 3:22 am

 

[barfo]

John Kitzhaber (Democrat) 562,095 47.60%
Chris Dudley (Republican) 584,198 49.47%

This is from the Sec of State, as of 3:16 am.

With that update, I now have Duds winning by 32 votes: 698,597 to 698,629!

However, I'm now pretty concerned about the accuracy of the % reported figures, because that last update added a bunch of votes but didn't really change any of the % reporteds. This extrapolation depends entirely on which counties have votes left to count, and how many. Ah well.

But if Duds wins by exactly 32 votes, I expect some sort of medal anyway.

barfo

 

[Natebishop3]

With that update, I now have Duds winning by 32 votes: 698,597 to 698,629!

However, I'm now pretty concerned about the accuracy of the % reported figures, because that last update added a bunch of votes but didn't really change any of the % reporteds. This extrapolation depends entirely on which counties have votes left to count, and how many. Ah well.

But if Duds wins by exactly 32 votes, I expect some sort of medal anyway.

barfo

I don't know what to think anymore, because I keep hearing all these assurances that Kitzhaber will overtake Dudley, but Duds lead just keeps growing. Anyway, here's the link to the site where you can keep getting the updates.

http://egov.sos.state.or.us/division/elections/results/2010G/1314035914.html

 

[Natebishop3]

As of 3:50 am, Dudley is still pulling away.

Chris Dudley (Republican) 590,532 49.56%
John Kitzhaber (Democrat) 565,805 47.49%

 

[barfo]

I don't know what to think anymore, because I keep hearing all these assurances that Kitzhaber will overtake Dudley, but Duds lead just keeps growing. Anyway, here's the link to the site where you can keep getting the updates.

http://egov.sos.state.or.us/division/elections/results/2010G/1314035914.html

I'm not sure either, but it does still appear that Multnomah County is very very slow at counting votes. At least their site seems to say that (at least) 280,000 votes were cast; they've counted a little over 180,000.

barfo

 

[Natebishop3]

I'm not sure either, but it does still appear that Multnomah County is very very slow at counting votes. At least their site seems to say that (at least) 280,000 votes were cast; they've counted a little over 180,000.

barfo

Maybe they're just wanting Dudley to get his hopes up so they can crush him like a bug.

 

[Natebishop3]

Are you sure on that number?

This link says there was only BALLOTS CAST - TOTAL. . . . . . . 190,864

http://www.co.multnomah.or.us/dbcs/elections/2010-11/results.shtml

 

[barfo]

Are you sure on that number?

This link says there was only BALLOTS CAST - TOTAL. . . . . . . 190,864

http://www.co.multnomah.or.us/dbcs/elections/2010-11/results.shtml

Look at the link to Voter Turnout near the top of the page.

barfo

 

[Natebishop3]

Look at the link to Voter Turnout near the top of the page.

barfo

People could still cast ballots until midnight, right?

 

[barfo]

People could still cast ballots until midnight, right?

No, just till 8, but I think what they are showing there is ballots that came in from remote ballot drops - naturally (some of) those are delivered to the courthouse or wherever they count votes after the polls close.

barfo

 

[Natebishop3]

4:15 am

Chris Dudley (Republican) 597,736 49.42%
John Kitzhaber (Democrat) 576,164 47.64%

 

[Natebishop3]

Dudley is losing ground now. Probably those Multnomah county ballots coming in finally.

 

[Denny Crane]

Well, you have a point there - but then that's no reason to replace one set with another set.

barfo

Yeah there is. When the car in D is heading toward the cliff, you better put it in R real quick.

 

[MrJayremmie]

Reps did well. So were these what we were expecting? I'm not sure. Did Republicans get best case scenerio? Or did they get about what they thought? Or worse than they thought? How bout Dems?

Info. is appreciated. Looks like country is headed for gridlock. Probably better than what has been happening recently, tbh.

 

[Mediocre Man]

It will be an embarrassment if Kitzhaber is voted in again after the shitty job he did before. That's right, Oregon, status quo seems to be working just fine. I mean why in the world would you want someone in office that wants to bring business to Oregon?

 

[Denny Crane]

Reps did well. So were these what we were expecting? I'm not sure. Did Republicans get best case scenerio? Or did they get about what they thought? Or worse than they thought? How bout Dems?

Info. is appreciated. Looks like country is headed for gridlock. Probably better than what has been happening recently, tbh.

It has been clear for at least a few weeks (since the most recent economics data) that a republican wave was in the making. The last-to-first type of turnaround in the House is the 2nd greatest in history, but some pundits have said that in these kinds of wave elections the party out of power typically gains both the house and senate. On the other hand, only 1/3rd of the senate is up for election every 2 years and republicans won 2/3 of those; they had to win an unprecedented 9 or 10 seat gain to take the senate.

For the Dems, their strategy was rather desperate. They poured their money and human resources (e.g. Clinton, Obama in person) into just a few races - enough to hold the senate. They were actually successful in that regard.

Though republicans were elected, I don't get the sense the election was FOR electing republicans as much as it was to throw out the existing crew and to repudiate the agenda undertaken to this point. A 2x4 to the collective foreheads of Washington to get their attention - pay attention to our pressing needs.

Republicans so far have mostly said the right things. It remains to be seen if they can deliver, and I'm dubious on that front.

Gridlock? I prefer it, frankly, but I'm not sure we're going to get it. More likely, the democrats who managed to keep their office will be far more willing to concede some authority to republicans (or face voter wrath again) and a lot of things will get passed and signed by Obama.

The bad news for all concerned (on a getting elected basis) is that 70% of the people feel the country is on the wrong track and 70% of the people see a lack of leadership in Washington. The latter is a reflection on Obama (he's supposed to lead!), but I don't exactly see anyone in the republican ranks who is going to make people want to salute when they walk in the room either.

The 2012 election cycle begins now. Obama will surely be his party's candidate unless he chooses not to run. If the status quo is simply maintained, vs. things getting worse or appearing to, republicans have 4 or 5 guys who could make a good go of it:

1) Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey, articulates the Tea Party principles extremely well and is a likable guy
2) Mitt Romney, former Governor (Executive Branch experience), smart, knowledgeable about finance
3) John Kasich, actually my favorite republican behind Ron Paul. If he leads a turnaround in Ohio, the people might want his magic worked at the Federal level again. He literally wrote the balanced budgets during the Clinton years.
4) Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York, nicknamed "America's Mayor." He seemed rather flat as a presidential candidate last time around, but he may be the most inspirational leader type in the country right now, along with Obama (when he's on his game).

(those are in no particular order)