The election results thread

[PtldPlatypus]

The 2012 election cycle begins now. Obama will surely be his party's candidate unless he chooses not to run. If the status quo is simply maintained, vs. things getting worse or appearing to, republicans have 4 or 5 guys who could make a good go of it:

1) Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey, articulates the Tea Party principles extremely well and is a likable guy
2) Mitt Romney, former Governor (Executive Branch experience), smart, knowledgeable about finance
3) John Kasich, actually my favorite republican behind Ron Paul. If he leads a turnaround in Ohio, the people might want his magic worked at the Federal level again. He literally wrote the balanced budgets during the Clinton years.
4) Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York, nicknamed "America's Mayor." He seemed rather flat as a presidential candidate last time around, but he may be the most inspirational leader type in the country right now, along with Obama (when he's on his game).

(those are in no particular order)

Bobby Jindal is not considered a viable candidate? I thought he was one of the hot names in the Republican party.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Dudley is losing ground now. Probably those Multnomah county ballots coming in finally.

Sad part for Dudley is that when all is said and done, he will easily be able attribute his defeat to the presence of the minor party candidates. As of now, 35,000 votes statewide went to a Constitution Party and Libertarian candidate. In their absence, I'd bet 65-70% of those votes would have gone Republican. Same thing that happened to Gordon Smith two years ago.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Abraham Lincoln was a tall republican.

 

[barfo]

Bobby Jindal is not considered a viable candidate? I thought he was one of the hot names in the Republican party.

They gave him a chance to make a national speech, and he sort of muffed it. One bad speech shouldn't kill your career of course, he can recover, but that tended to take him off of people's hotlists. I expect he's "underrated" at the moment.

barfo

 

[mook]

It's a bad day to be a Democrat, but it's a good day to be an American. I'm hopeful that with a more even divide in power between the two parties, there will be a much greater temptation for both to reach compromises that are better for the country.

Hopefully this is all a replay of the Clinton administration, where the first two years were completely stagnant even though the Democrats were running everything, you then had the sweeping midterm election, then the shutdown, and then several years of really pretty good divided government with rising prosperity and budget surpluses. Hey, a guy can dream.

 

[maxiep]

They gave him a chance to make a national speech, and he sort of muffed it. One bad speech shouldn't kill your career of course, he can recover, but that tended to take him off of people's hotlists. I expect he's "underrated" at the moment.

barfo

I think we've learned not to vote for the guy that can give a good speech. Jindal would be a tremendous VP. I'm keeping an eye on Mitch Daniels.

 

[maxiep]

It's a bad day to be a Democrat, but it's a good day to be an American. I'm hopeful that with a more even divide in power between the two parties, there will be a much greater temptation for both to reach compromises that are better for the country.

Hopefully this is all a replay of the Clinton administration, where the first two years were completely stagnant even though the Democrats were running everything, you then had the sweeping midterm election, then the shutdown, and then several years of really pretty good divided government with rising prosperity and budget surpluses. Hey, a guy can dream.

That's when both parties were trying to capture the center. Now both parties are trying to capture their exteme wings. I'm pretty pessimistic about the state of the country right now. At least we stepped on the brakes, however.

 

[maxiep]

Alex Sink concedes in FL. She was fucked by what the Democrats tried to do to Kendrick Meeks.

LaPage (R) wins the governorship in ME.

CT, VT, IL, MN and OR are still outstanding. If Obama can keep IL, it will be very good news for him. However, losing the Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio governorships was worse for Obama than losing the House. 2012 is going to present him with a very different re-election landscape.

 

[barfo]

Yeah there is. When the car in D is heading toward the cliff, you better put it in R real quick.

The recommended method is to use the brakes. Putting it in R suddenly tends to destroy the transmission and then the car isn't drivable anymore.

barfo

 

[ABM]

The recommended method is to use the brakes. Putting it in R suddenly tends to destroy the transmission and then the car isn't drivable anymore.

barfo

It's even worse when the car has been tricked-out with every bell & whistle in the book, coupled with the way overpriced extended warranty plan that (uh oh) doesn't even cover the drive train/transmission.

 

[mook]

That's when both parties were trying to capture the center. Now both parties are trying to capture their exteme wings. I'm pretty pessimistic about the state of the country right now. At least we stepped on the brakes, however.

I look at it differently. I think 1994, much like now, signifies the end to some major fights. In the years preceding these two points, the objective for Republicans was always to accumulate power more than it was to govern. Just become relevant again. The way they went about that both times was to fight everything every step of the way to the best of their ability, and drum up as much support as they could on the far right of the party. They tried continuing that on after achieving real power with the shutdown, but soon realized it just wasn't a popular way to govern. So both parties worked hard at reforms that were good for the country (balancing the budget, welfare reform).

I think the Tea Party movement is in for some real disappointments in the coming years. At some point politicians of all stripes get tired of not accomplishing anything (but scoring political points for their fringe) and want to get down to the business of actually governing. So they have to compromise. From what I've seen of the Tea Party, and from friends I have who are active in it, "compromise" is just not what they are into.

On the left I already see it happening. I know a lot of lefties who are still fuming over the lack of a single payer option in Obama's health care reform. That's a small example where the party had to ignore the fringe because they wanted to actually govern while they had the chance.

I think that temptation to compromise is only going to get stronger and stronger in the coming years. It's easy to be uncompromising to your principles when you have no hope of getting anything you want achieved (Republicans until now), or you feel you have an overwhelming majority (Democrats until now). When the balance is this close, it's just natural to "give a little" so you can "get a little."

 

[barfo]

That's when both parties were trying to capture the center. Now both parties are trying to capture their exteme wings.

I don't know if it is fair to say the Dems are trying to be more extreme. They surely will be more extreme now, but that's because so many of the moderate Dems got ousted by Republicans last night. Whereas the Republicans chose, via primary, to nominate more extreme candidates.

barfo

 

[maxiep]

The story that is flying under the radar is what the GOP did at the state level and how it will impact reapportionment. Here's a decent recap of what went down:

http://www.redstate.com/erick/2010/11/03/the-tsunami/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

 

[maxiep]

I don't know if it is fair to say the Dems are trying to be more extreme. They surely will be more extreme now, but that's because so many of the moderate Dems got ousted by Republicans last night. Whereas the Republicans chose, via primary, to nominate more extreme candidates.

barfo

We likely have very different definitions of "extreme".

 

[barfo]

We likely have very different definitions of "extreme".

I'm sure that's true, but I don't see how it affects the analysis. In what way are the democrats trying to be more extreme? Did they nominate more extreme candidates than they had previously? It doesn't seem like it to me.

barfo

 

[SlyPokerDog]

That tweets on this page are hilarious, both sides going nuts!

http://gov.oregonlive.com/election/

 

[SlyPokerDog]

I'm sure that's true, but I don't see how it affects the analysis. In what way are the democrats trying to be more extreme? Did they nominate more extreme candidates than they had previously? It doesn't seem like it to me.

barfo

I heard that the Republicans are going to enact a law that makes all Democrats wear burkas, including the men.

 

[maxiep]

I'm sure that's true, but I don't see how it affects the analysis. In what way are the democrats trying to be more extreme? Did they nominate more extreme candidates than they had previously? It doesn't seem like it to me.

barfo

I would argue that anyone who voted for a health care bill that is going to simultaneously raise costs and lower the quality of care is "extreme". I would argue that anyone that would allow structural deficits of $1.3T is "extreme". I would argue that anyone who would wipe out bondholders to put unions in the front seat is "extreme". The Democrats have been presenting us with "extreme" candidates for years.

Like I said, we have different definitions.

 

[maxiep]

That tweets on this page are hilarious, both sides going nuts!

http://gov.oregonlive.com/election/

I like this exchange

andrewnishi Why does the smallest county and the county with the most people and money (by area) always take the longest to count? #ORelection

raubuch @andrewnishi ---because it takes a long time for 5 guys to fill out 20,000 ballots. #ORelection

 

[barfo]

I would argue that anyone who voted for a health care bill that is going to simultaneously raise costs and lower the quality of care is "extreme". I would argue that anyone that would allow structural deficits of $1.3T is "extreme". I would argue that anyone who would wipe out bondholders to put unions in the front seat is "extreme". The Democrats have been presenting us with "extreme" candidates for years.

Like I said, we have different definitions.

Yes, but you aren't being consistent. First you said that they were trying to be more extreme, now you say they've been extreme for years.

But my basic misunderstanding is that I thought you were talking about the election, whereas you were really talking about policy in the last few years.

barfo

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

FUCK, I can't believe that bitch Kamala Harris is ahead of Steve Cooley for California Attorney General. This was the only thing I voted for that I expected to win on. Harris is a wack job. Steve Cooley was endorsed by EVERY law enforcement agency in California and has been there. Harris' biggest accomplishment is maintaining SF as a sanctuary city and putting parents in jail if their kids skip school.

 

[maxiep]

I now have the television on in my office watching Obama speak about the election. Schadenfreude has rarely been more delicious.

 

[barfo]

I heard that the Republicans are going to enact a law that makes all Democrats wear burkas, including the men.

Finally, I won't be the only one anymore!

barfo

 

[maxiep]

Obama's tone signals he'll triangulate; his words signal he'll double down. I don't think he knows what he's going to do.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

I'm ashamed to be a Californian today.

 

[maxiep]

I'm ashamed to be a Californian today.

Your state is in denial. What's even worse is that these state election results puts CA on the superhighway to bankruptcy while the national elections make it much less likely that Congress will agree to fund a bailout for the state. In short, California is fucked.

 

[maxiep]

Jesus, Obama still thinks the problem is that we're too stupid to understand the brilliance of his policies.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

Your state is in denial. What's even worse is that these state election results puts CA on the superhighway to bankruptcy while the national elections make it much less likely that Congress will agree to fund a bailout for the state. In short, California is fucked.

Its not denial. I think California is wacked out of its mind. This AG shit was the final straw, Kamala Harris fucking sucks ass. This Global Warming Final Solutions Act is going to destroy the economy and raise energy prices. What happened yesterday is going to fuck this state over for DECADES. Its already at the bottom of US states so it really can't get any lower, but it will get worse.

Any suggestions on where to move to next?

 

[maxiep]

Obama once again stated that it would be "misreading the election" by thinking it had to do with re-examining the policies of the last two years. In other words, the voters are irrational and angry and don't know what's good for them.

He's not going to be Bill Clinton.

 

[barfo]

Any suggestions on where to move to next?

Somewhere in the middle of the country. Kansas? Oklahoma?

barfo