Exclusive The final week in the West

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PtldPlatypus

PtldPlatypus

Let's go Baby Blazers!
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With seeds 3-8 all within 2 games, the final week and final standings are all wildly unpredictable. Let's start with a visual depiction of the current situation.

upload_2025-4-9_7-6-31.png

My notes:
  • the #2 seeded Rockets have games against 3 of these 6 teams, so their willingness to play hard or not will be significant and impactful.
  • The Grizz have two games against other competing teams, so they arguably have more control over their destiny than any of the others.
  • Grizz also, inexplicably, had 1 fewer Western conference game in their schedule, having played Brooklyn 3 times this year.
  • Wolves have the easiest remaining schedule, facing two tankers, and one playoff team under an interim coach
  • Nuggets fired their coach just ahead of a 3 game season-ending road trip, all against playoff or play-in teams
My prediction for the final 3 games for each team and final standings
  • Lakers go 2-1, finish 50-32 (3-1 vs Warriors)
  • Warriors win out finish 50-32 (1-3 vs Lakers)
  • Wolves win out, finish 49-33
  • Grizzlies go 1-2, finish 48-34 (conf 27-24)
  • Clippers go 1-2, finish 48-34 (conf 27-25)
  • Nuggets go 1-2, finish 48-34 (conf 30-22)
 
Do I post my opinion HERE, in the Around the NBA or in the Race to the Bottom thread. I have no issue copy and pasting either.
 
THE HCP said:
Do I post my opinion HERE, in the Around the NBA or in the Race to the Bottom thread. I have no issue copy and pasting either.
Click to expand...
This thread and the "race to the bottom" thread are completely unrelated.

If you would like to comment/predict in this thread, that's perfectly reasonable.
 
Rockets making it clear they're not trying in these final 3 games, so the Clippers will clearly get the W tonight, and you can probably pencil in losses to the Lakers on Friday and the Nuggets on Sunday.

Lakers handled business tonight, and it seems the Nuggets will as well, while the Spurs are hanging surprisingly tough vs the Warriors. Things could get really interesting if the W's lose that game.
 
blazerfan11 said:
Looks like the Lakers won't need to win in Portland. LA's next game is Houston, and Houston is resting their starters.

The Lakers only need to win one of their last two games to secure the 3 seed.

The Lakers win the tie-breaker with Nuggets, Clippers, Grizzlies, and Warriors.
Click to expand...

That is an excellent note. Lakers are basically locked into the 3 seed now.
 
PtldPlatypus said:
That is an excellent note. Lakers are basically locked into the 3 seed now.
Click to expand...

pretty certain Lebron and Doncic won't play against Portland. Probably not Reaves either

Blazers need to have a 7 man rotation of Murray, Walker, Minaya, Reath, Rupert, McGowens, and Cissoko. Banton is too big a threat to have a great game
 
Harrison Effing Barnes for the win over his old team!
 
What happened to the days of “well we didn’t make it but let’s play spoiler”? We used to want to win these last two games.
 
Well, clearly I miscalculated on few things, but as I said, this final week will be wildly unpredictable. That loss to the Spurs dropped the Warriors from having a shot at the 3-seed to play-in positioning. Every game matters!! However, it also looks like the Blazers have in fact transitioned into tank mode, so that will help Curry & co tomorrow.

upload_2025-4-10_6-2-39.png

Updated predictons:
  • I still think the Wolves handle the Grizz tonight, making a 3-way tie for the 6 seed going into the final weekend
  • I expect all the teams above to win Friday, except Memphis who likely drops another on the second-half of a home-road back to back.
  • Sunday's Clippers-Warriors game will be prime viewing, with the loser likely being in the play-in, and the winner claiming 5 (Clippers) or 6 (Warriors). Bet the league would cream themselves over a Lakers/Warriors first-round matchup.
If things shake out the way I'd guess, we're looking at OKC-MEM; HOU-LAC; LAL-GSW; DEN-MIN.
 

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Wolves, Grizz, and Warriors all tied for 6th. I love this.
 
SlyPokerDog said:
Click to expand...

GoReiVjWwAAFGXt
 
Kinda screwed it up in another thread, but I want to lay out the scenarios correctly here:
  • Simple parts:
    • If DEN wins Sunday, they are #4 (wins tie with LAC if applicable)
    • If MIN loses Sunday, they are in the play-in (loses tie breaks to GSW and MEM [if applicable])
    • If GSW beats LAC, Clippers still have the H2H tie-break over GSW (3-1)
  • More complex scenarios:
    • GSW wins, DEN/LAC/MIN lose (3-way tie between DEN/LAC/GSW for 4)
      • LAC wins tie-break (5-3 among tied) and 4 seed, then DEN is 5 and GSW 6 (DEN 2-1 H2H vs GSW)
    • DEN/GSW/MIN win, LAC loses (3-way tie between LAC/GSW/MIN for 5)
      • MIN wins tie-break (4-3 among tied) and 5 seed, then LAC is 6 and GSW 7 (LAC 3-1 H2H vs GSW)
    • GSW/MIN win, DEN/LAC lose (4-way tie for 4)
      • MIN wins tie-break and 4 (8-3 among tied), then LAC gets 5, DEN 6, and GSW 7.
I would suggest that the most likely scenario has Denver beating Houston and claiming the 4 seed and Minnesota clobbering Utah, relegating the Warriors to the 7-seed and the play-in regardless of the result of their game with the Clippers.
 
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