The First 25 Games

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wizenheimer

wizenheimer

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I hadn't really looked at the schedule until tonight. Those first 25 games look like a real gauntlet:

@ Los Angeles Clippers
Orlando Magic
@ Philadelphia 76ers
@ Toronto Raptors
@ Detroit Pistons
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies
@ Sacramento Kings
@ Los Angeles Lakers
@ Utah Jazz
Cleveland Cavaliers
Los Angeles Lakers
Oklahoma City Thunder
@ Phoenix Suns
Utah Jazz
@ Milwaukee Bucks
@ Indiana Pacers
@ Cleveland Cavaliers
@ Utah Jazz
@ Los Angeles Clippers
Utah Jazz
Dallas Mavericks
Golden State Warriors
Phoenix Suns
Washington Wizards

what do you think Portland's record will be 25 games into the season? I'm seeing 7-8 wins and I may be aiming a bit high?
 
Well I think maybe we could go 3/4 against the Jazz
 
When I look at that and think about our talent and experience versus those teams I think the logical conclusion is 3-22 but we know we'll take a few that we shouldn't but the funny thing about a team at this level (which is a starting level or low level) is that we could win a few of those losses but we might give back a couple of those wins.
 
blazerkor said:
When I look at that and think about our talent and experience versus those teams I think the logical conclusion is 3-22 but we know we'll take a few that we shouldn't but the funny thing about a team at this level (which is a starting level or low level) is that we could win a few of those losses but we might give back a couple of those wins.
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Team is young and at least somewhat talented. I’d bet you $50 we start better than 5-20
 
10 wins 15 losses is my prediction.

Schedule is tough but I think we pick up a few wins from other teams with older vets starting slow as well as opponents overlooking our squad.

Wouldn't be shocked if we have anywhere between 4 to 14 wins though. Small sample size can lead to some big variances. We have enough veterans and youth that may improve, we could certainly flirt with playing .500 ball for a stretch. Or we could get steamrolled.

I hope this team really focus' on playing hard and giving max effort from day 1, regardless of results. We don't want the losses to turn into a long term losing culture.
 
e_blazer said:
Does it matter? This season is about growth and figuring out which players belong with the team’s future.
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I doubt that posters at S2 playing around with win/loss predictions is going to impact the team's growth, so that's still on track

I was just struck by how many teams in those first 25 games are likely going to be a lot better than Portland. And a young team starting with 13 of their first 20 games on the road is a big challenge
 
Wizards, Jazz, Pistons, Raptors, Thunder, Mavs.

this might be the easy part of the schedule
 
Bring it. It will pound home the need to stay focused and prepared for road games.

Pressure makes diamonds.
 
wizenheimer said:
I doubt that posters at S2 playing around with win/loss predictions is going to impact the team's growth, so that's still on track

I was just struck by how many teams in those first 25 games are likely going to be a lot better than Portland. And a young team starting with 13 of their first 20 games on the road is a big challenge
Click to expand...

No doubt it's a tough row to hoe. I'd say that probably on paper at least 25 teams are better than the Blazers, at least if experience is factored in. Rebuilds are tough.
 
Good. No false confidence. We'll see the grit of our youngsters.
 
e_blazer said:
No doubt it's a tough row to hoe. I'd say that probably on paper at least 25 teams are better than the Blazers, at least if experience is factored in. Rebuilds are tough.
Click to expand...

what's funny about the schedule, and knowing what the level of the roster is likely to be: Over the years I'd look at the Blazer schedule and see 25-30 'should-win' games a year; and another 15-20 'decent-chance' games. The only season those values was reduced was when Olshey thought Whiteside-Bazemore-Hezonja-Tolliver were worthy replacements for Kanter-Aminu-Harkless-Curry-Turner-Meyers-Layman. (geeeeezuzzz!)

anyway, this year, I'm not sure I see any 'should-win' games. Just a bunch of 'decent-chance' games. And about 50 'Yikes!!' games
 
 
wizenheimer said:
I hadn't really looked at the schedule until tonight. Those first 25 games look like a real gauntlet:

@ Los Angeles Clippers
Orlando Magic
@ Philadelphia 76ers
@ Toronto Raptors
@ Detroit Pistons
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies
@ Sacramento Kings
@ Los Angeles Lakers
@ Utah Jazz
Cleveland Cavaliers
Los Angeles Lakers
Oklahoma City Thunder
@ Phoenix Suns
Utah Jazz
@ Milwaukee Bucks
@ Indiana Pacers
@ Cleveland Cavaliers
@ Utah Jazz
@ Los Angeles Clippers
Utah Jazz
Dallas Mavericks
Golden State Warriors
Phoenix Suns
Washington Wizards

what do you think Portland's record will be 25 games into the season? I'm seeing 7-8 wins and I may be aiming a bit high?
Click to expand...


Yikes! I will be optimistic and think our young guns and running style will shock a few teams 7-10 wins.
 
wizenheimer said:
what's funny about the schedule, and knowing what the level of the roster is likely to be: Over the years I'd look at the Blazer schedule and see 25-30 'should-win' games a year; and another 15-20 'decent-chance' games. The only season those values was reduced was when Olshey thought Whiteside-Bazemore-Hezonja-Tolliver were worthy replacements for Kanter-Aminu-Harkless-Curry-Turner-Meyers-Layman. (geeeeezuzzz!)

anyway, this year, I'm not sure I see any 'should-win' games. Just a bunch of 'decent-chance' games. And about 50 'Yikes!!' games
Click to expand...
Brother we haven’t had a “sure win” game in 4 years.
 
wizenheimer said:
what's funny about the schedule, and knowing what the level of the roster is likely to be: Over the years I'd look at the Blazer schedule and see 25-30 'should-win' games a year; and another 15-20 'decent-chance' games. The only season those values was reduced was when Olshey thought Whiteside-Bazemore-Hezonja-Tolliver were worthy replacements for Kanter-Aminu-Harkless-Curry-Turner-Meyers-Layman. (geeeeezuzzz!)

anyway, this year, I'm not sure I see any 'should-win' games. Just a bunch of 'decent-chance' games. And about 50 'Yikes!!' games
Click to expand...

To be fair, Portland has 22 games against teams that did not make the playoffs last season. That leaves 60 against teams in the play in and playoffs. In the east, Indy and Orlando might fight to get in the play in with Miami and Chicago most likely fighting to stay in. In the west Dallas and Utah will be fighting to get into the play in with Minny, OKC and New Orleans fighting to make the play in. As a percentage, Portland should win 50% of the winnable games in my estimation, which is 11. Then win maybe 20% of games they are clearly the underdogs, which is 12. By my math Portland should win 23 games. That is what the Dixon/Blake team won I believe. This team has much more talent than that team. I predicted 34 wins. To get to 34 they would have to win at a 33% clip against the better teams and win a couple extra against the bottom feeders. Portland won at a 40% clip last season.
 
KingSpeed said:
All I see is a list of flawed teams that we can beat on any given night. Where does the yikes come from?
Click to expand...
Blazers lineup will include rookie rookie rookie rookie rookie, sophmore sophmore sophomore. There probably will be some yikes.
 
KingSpeed said:
All I see is a list of flawed teams that we can beat on any given night. Where does the yikes come from?
Click to expand...
Most of those teams are playoff bound? That schedule looks pretty brutal to me and I also simultaneously think we will shock people, but mostly in the 2nd half based on this schedule.
 
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