The Five Mistakes Clinton Made

[huevonkiller]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ May 9 2008, 09:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>http://americanresearchgroup.com/ev/

You might start with the 2004 results and see which states you think will flip for Obama and for Hillary.</div>

Ah well, thanks for that sir.

 

[Denny Crane]

Here's the Democrats' new flag (only 48 stars for the 48 states they think count):

 

[Denny Crane]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May09.html
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clin...Maps/May09.html

That site is run by a staunch democratic party supporter.

 

[huevonkiller]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ May 9 2008, 09:55 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May09.html
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clin...Maps/May09.html

That site is run by a staunch democratic party supporter.</div>

Yep that's exactly what I meant about this year.

 

[Денг Гордон]

I have:

Alabama- McCain (9)
Alaska- McCain (3)
Arizona- McCain (10)
Arkansas- McCain (6)
California- Obama (55)
Colorado- Obama (9)
Conneticut- Obama (7)
Delaware- Obama (3)
Florida- McCain (27)
Georgia- McCain (15)
Hawaii- Obama (4)
Idaho- McCain (4)
Illinois- Obama (21)
Indiana- Obama (11)
Iowa- Obama (7)
Kansas- McCain (6)
Kentucky- McCain (8)
Louisiana- McCain (9)
Maine- Obama (4)
Maryland- Obama (10)
Massachusetts- Obama (12)
Michigan- Obama (17)
Minnesota- Obama (10)
Mississippi- McCain (6)
Missouri- McCain (11)
Montana- McCain (3)
Nebraska- Obama (5)
Nevada- Obama (5)
New Hampshire- McCain (4)
New Jersey- Obama (15)
New Mexico- Obama (5)
New York- Obama (31)
North Carolina- McCain (15)
North Dakota- Obama (3)
Ohio- McCain (20)
Oklahoma- McCain (7)
Oregon- Obama (7)
Pennsylvania- McCain (21)
Rhode Island- Obama (4)
South Carolina- McCain (8)
South Dakota- Obama (3)
Tennessee- McCain (11)
Texas- McCain (34)
Utah- McCain (5)
Vermont- Obama (3)
Virginia- McCain (13)
Washington- Obama (11)
West Virgnia- McCain (5)
Wisconsin- Obama (10)
Wyoming- McCain (3)
DC- Obama (3)

So that would make it: Obama 280 vs. McCain 258

 

[huevonkiller]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BG7 Lavigne @ May 9 2008, 09:58 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I have:

Alabama- McCain (9)
Alaska- McCain (3)
Arizona- McCain (10)
Arkansas- McCain (6)
California- Obama (55)
Colorado- Obama (9)
Conneticut- Obama (7)
Delaware- Obama (3)
Florida- McCain (27)
Georgia- McCain (15)
Hawaii- Obama (4)
Idaho- McCain (4)
Illinois- Obama (21)
Indiana- Obama (11)
Iowa- Obama (7)
Kansas- McCain (6)
Kentucky- McCain (8)
Louisiana- McCain (9)
Maine- Obama (4)
Maryland- Obama (10)
Massachusetts- Obama (12)
Michigan- Obama (17)
Minnesota- Obama (10)
Mississippi- McCain (6)
Missouri- McCain (11)
Montana- McCain (3)
Nebraska- Obama (5)
Nevada- Obama (5)
New Hampshire- McCain (4)
New Jersey- Obama (15)
New Mexico- Obama (5)
New York- Obama (31)
North Carolina- McCain (15)
North Dakota- Obama (3)
Ohio- McCain (20)
Oklahoma- McCain (7)
Oregon- Obama (7)
Pennsylvania- McCain (21)
Rhode Island- Obama (4)
South Carolina- McCain (8)
South Dakota- Obama (3)
Tennessee- McCain (11)
Texas- McCain (34)
Utah- McCain (5)
Vermont- Obama (3)
Virginia- McCain (13)
Washington- Obama (11)
West Virgnia- McCain (5)
Wisconsin- Obama (10)
Wyoming- McCain (3)
DC- Obama (3)

So that would make it: Obama 280 vs. McCain 258</div>

Ah good, there's still hope.

I thought I had seen some other pro-Obama tallies like that too.

 

[Denny Crane]

The popular vote is well represented.

Obama wins two states, California and New York, and gets 86 electoral votes, or 32% of all the votes needed to win the electoral college.

There's absolutely no way Obama wins if he loses Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. That'd put McCain near 300 electoral votes.

 

[huevonkiller]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ May 9 2008, 10:07 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>The popular vote is well represented.

Obama wins two states, California and New York, and gets 86 electoral votes, or 32% of all the votes needed to win the electoral college.

There's absolutely no way Obama wins if he loses Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. That'd put McCain near 300 electoral votes.</div>

Not measuring the magnitudes of wins and losses is dangerous.

He won't lose Penn, I heard he might even cover up for that state with the appropriate VP. Obama's surged in head to head match-ups against McCain for the last week.

 

[Denny Crane]

Click on the obama vs. mccain link. On that page, click on previous report.

 

[Денг Гордон]

Rasmussen has the Democrats having 260 leaning democrats to 240 leaning republican, with 4 toss up states (Nevada, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Colorado). Under this scenario, Ohio would be the best route, since that single state wins it. Then the second scenario to go after would be Colarado + 1. New Hampshire/Nevada or just Colorado would yield a freaking tie.

I would actually kind of want to see that NH/NV scenario happen, just to see how it plays out.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_con..._college_update

In the 4 tossups:

Colarado: Obama 46 McCain 43
Nevada: McCain 48 Obama 43
New Hampshire: McCain 51 Obama 41
Ohio: McCain 47 Obama 40

So they actually have the tie scenario playing out on Rasmussen right now! Although there is one fatal flaw in this. They have Nebraska as strongly Republican (they didn't do any polling for this set...I'm pretty sure it is not strongly rRepublican), but they ignore the fact that Nebraska chooses EC's by congressional district as well, and most polls show Obama winning 2 EC's out of Nebraska at least, so that would make Obama the winner, 271 to 267.

 

[Denny Crane]

Rasmussen is a great pollster, but his electoral vote calculations aren't based upon polling the voters.

 

[Денг Гордон]

From the "most accurate pollster" this election season.

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/03...280-mccain-258/

 

[Denny Crane]

They have Obama winning Ohio based upon a poll they did in February. In 5 of 6 polls done in Ohio since, McCain has led.

You think it's accurate still?

 

[huevonkiller]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ May 9 2008, 10:24 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>They have Obama winning Ohio based upon a poll they did in February. In 5 of 6 polls done in Ohio since, McCain has led.

You think it's accurate still?</div>

Wisconsin should still be for Obama. I disagree with that prediction.

 

[Real]

I definetly think New Jersey is in play for a McCain/Rice ticket. New Jersey voted Republican up until the 80's. New York would also definetly be in play with a McCain/Rice ticket.

 

[huevonkiller]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Real @ May 9 2008, 11:47 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I definetly think New Jersey is in play for a McCain/Rice ticket. New Jersey voted Republican up until the 80's. New York would also definetly be in play with a McCain/Rice ticket.</div>

They've both been horribly democratic states from what I've seen in every EC map recently.

 

[Denny Crane]

Obama's got really big leads over McCain in both NJ and NY.

 

[Denny Crane]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obam.../wisconsin.html

 

[huevonkiller]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

 

[Денг Гордон]

Since February, Rasmussen is the only pollster to have McCain beating Obama in Wisconsin. Strategic Vision, UofW, and Survey USA all have Obama winning. I think Rasmussen realizes there is some error in their Wisconsin polling, since they gave Wisconsin to Obama in their EC tracking. Wisconsin definitely will go Obama. He has tons of political machines behind him in the state, and has great organization in the state. Kerry didn't have much presence here in 2004, while Bush had a heavy presence, and Kerry still won. I think Obama will win easily. Kerry did horrible in Wisconsin. He lost Racine for goodness sake, and that city should be an easy Democrat win. Milwaukee carried Kerry to victory. Obama will probably do better in Milwaukee while doing better in the rest of the state.