The future's not what it was

[Ed O]

I haven't cared much about the season in a while... I, too, was pretty optimistic. Even though I didn't care for the Boston deal (at least as far as I can recall... I know I liked the first part of the trade and still am fine that we traded Lillard), was not a big Ayton guy, and I thought bringing Grant and Thybulle back was ridiculous, I thought we'd be "meh" rather than "blah" this year because the team had invested so much in veterans, rather than doing a full teardown.

But there's been so much "blah" and "blech" this year that it's hard to care. We don't have enough young talent to justify being this bad. We should be accumulating former first rounders, in my opinion, who were drafted for upside but didn't have a chance to show it at their previous stops. Camara and Banton, who have both showed some promise and are still young, are like that approach, but watered down and it's just hard for me to get excited about their upside in the long run.

Cronin continues to be a disaster at GM, and I gotta think that at almost every franchise in the NBA both he and Billups would be dead men walking in their jobs, but with Portland there doesn't appear to be any heat on them at all.

 

[blazerkor]

Nate Duncan and Danny Larue ranked their top young cores in the nba (age 25 or under), they had Portland as a middle of the pack young core:

Weird considering who is on our list of players that Tou isn't on there. We could have a much better young core if we draft well and if we turn Jerami and Malcolm into players in that window between Scoot and Deandre.

 

[wizenheimer]

Two guys where I think the Blazers made great moves acquiring them for very little: Camara and Banton. Both are going to be keepers in my book.

Two guys that I think have All-Star potential but are going to need 2-3 years to get there: Scoot and Sharpe. Scoot’s game will open up dramatically if he can improve his outside shot this summer. Sharpe just needs to stay healthy and get PT.

Two guys I think stick next year who will be largely unpopular with this board: Ant and Ayton. They both have deficiencies in their games, but also have talents the team needs.

Two guys I think will be gone next year: the Boston duo - Williams and Brogdon. Both are likely to be coveted by other GMs on contenders and can bring back other picks and/or players.

Two things I believe that will piss off many around here: Cronin will make moves to acquire young vets via trade, possibly using first round picks plus players, and has no intention of the Blazers being a lottery team next year; and Chauncey is going to stick as coach for at least a couple more seasons.

what you're describing is an SF=PP team...straddle fences=perpetual play-in.

if Cronin has no intention of Portland being a lottery team next season, he's dumb as a fucking rock

 

[julius]

Patience is a virtue that so many of you severely lack

 

[THE HCP]

Interesting how a few on here looked at this roster in October and chose to be optimistic. Maybe that's why I'm not that bent about how things are going....kinda saw it coming.

 

[Predator]

Cooper Flagg or Ace Bailey are our only hope to be “good” in the next 3-5 years.

 

[riverman]

Patience is a virtue that so many of you severely lack

Kings fans said that for almost 2 decades. At 70 I don't know if I have 2 decades to be that patient. I think the draft, fantasy projections are for young folks who follow college ball and still like it more than the NBA game. The lottery becomes the Oscar award show for college players. I honestly believe playoff experience is how you become a contender for young players and coaches...it's a shame our young talent has never sniffed the playoffs other than Banton. That's a school all of its own. Same for the coaching staff. Every possession counts in the playoffs.

 

[PCmor7]

Take me out to pasture and shoot me

Finally, something to do instead of watching the game.

 

[Whyachi]

Nate Duncan and Danny Larue ranked their top young cores in the nba (age 25 or under), they had Portland as a middle of the pack young core:

I question any rating system that puts Washington ahead for any reason. These guys sound like closet Wizards fans

 

[Strenuus]

Re-upped my season tickets yesterday when my rep called and I was in a good mood. Will regret that next season.

You just made their day because I can't imagine the amount of "no thanks" they have heard this year.

 

[e_blazer]

what you're describing is an SF=PP team...straddle fences=perpetual play-in.

if Cronin has no intention of Portland being a lottery team next season, he's dumb as a fucking rock

Spoken as a true fan. Cronin no doubt wants to achieve success, but he also has to answer to owners who are interested in filling vacant seats. What part of the past decade makes you think that Jody and the Vulcans are willing to commit to what may be a decade long tanking streak in search of the elusive draft pick who can be the unicorn that leads to playoff nirvana?

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Coming from someone who does not like to blow things up because of the uncertainty of the draft year to year........this whole dooms day thread is both pathetic and laughable at the same time. Things in the NBA can change in a hurry.

Yeah, like when Walton destroyed his ankle. Or Oden blew out his knee (for the nth time). Or Roy's cartilage evaporated.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Nate Duncan and Danny Larue ranked their top young cores in the nba (age 25 or under), they had Portland as a middle of the pack young core:

Kind of discouraging that teams already doing well like Boston, MN and New Orleans, have better young cores than us.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I question any rating system that puts Washington ahead for any reason. These guys sound like closet Wizards fans

Coulibaly is a huge question mark, but Avdija is suddenly looking very good. But yes, even I would not have said Washington had a less crappy future than us.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Grant and Simons and Ayton are all three really good players, but somehow I enjoy watching the team without them.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Cooper Flagg or Ace Bailey are our only hope to be “good” in the next 3-5 years.

Those are clearly made-up names. You know, like Johnny Utah or Joe Montana.

 

[wizenheimer]

Spoken as a true fan. Cronin no doubt wants to achieve success, but he also has to answer to owners who are interested in filling vacant seats. What part of the past decade makes you think that Jody and the Vulcans are willing to commit to what may be a decade long tanking streak in search of the elusive draft pick who can be the unicorn that leads to playoff nirvana?

I don't how you assumed what you seemed to assume about my post

I've been saying for years here I think Jody and the Vulcans are fucking terrible owners. Cash flow is their holy grail, not contending or satisfying die-hard fans

and yes, I'm sure they give Cronin directives. I'm also sure they weren't insisting he re-sign Grant for 160M; make Ant the 'face' of the team; trade for the overpaid Ayton; add Timelord's knees to the honor roll of broken Blazer big men; and stand pat at the trade deadline

the Blazers are in a deep hole, and for me your "two things" post was all about not learning from mistakes and instead, digging even deeper. That very well may be the direction Portland chooses because it's about the worst direction they could go from where they are

 

[KingSpeed]

For God's sake find a second example. I almost suspect that the reason we haven't fired Chauncey is so we can point to him as a sign of hope for Scoot's future.

There are many examples of great players who sucked or underwhelmed in their rookie years: Dirk, Giannis, Kobe, Nash, KG to name 5 more. Scoot is averaging more points and assists than Jokic in his rookie year.

 

[KingSpeed]

Kings fans said that for almost 2 decades. At 70 I don't know if I have 2 decades to be that patient. I think the draft, fantasy projections are for young folks who follow college ball and still like it more than the NBA game. The lottery becomes the Oscar award show for college players. I honestly believe playoff experience is how you become a contender for young players and coaches...it's a shame our young talent has never sniffed the playoffs other than Banton. That's a school all of its own. Same for the coaching staff. Every possession counts in the playoffs.

There’s a middle ground. No one said “wait 20 years”. How about “wait 4 years”?

 

[e_blazer]

I don't how you assumed what you seemed to assume about my post

I've been saying for years here I think Jody and the Vulcans are fucking terrible owners. Cash flow is their holy grail, not contending or satisfying die-hard fans

and yes, I'm sure they give Cronin directives. I'm also sure they weren't insisting he re-sign Grant for 160M; make Ant the 'face' of the team; trade for the overpaid Ayton; add Timelord's knees to the honor roll of broken Blazer big men; and stand pat at the trade deadline

the Blazers are in a deep hole, and for me your "two things" post was all about not learning from mistakes and instead, digging even deeper. That very well may be the direction Portland chooses because it's about the worst direction they could go from where they are

My post was simply a statement of what I expect to happen. My opinions, and that’s what they are, reflect what I have seen from this organization since PA died. I don’t expect any commitment to a long losing period because I don’t think there’s enough organizational direction to suffer through that. I don’t think that changes until ownership changes. I think Cronin has to do the best he can within the constraints of that reality.

 

[MrDraftGuy]

Personally, this is exactly why I wanted Amen, instead, as it properly prepared the Blazers for a rebuild that would be more like Roy-Oden-LMA-Batum, where multiple positions are covered within three years and defense is secured at 3/5 positions (a minimum for championship squads, historically), rebounding is secured, and there is a variety of different pieces moving that they compliment one another (shooting opens up for twin towers, LMA can play at mid-range or inside, Oden can feast inside, Roy was 3 level scorer, front court defense covers back court, etc).

Short PGs are useful but building around short PGs doesn't really win championships (Steph is GOAT shooter, Zeke is exception) so this notion to chase a Dame replacement was a foolish one, to begin with.

As a caveat, one of the reasons I started this account and a few others like it is to document my picks. Once upon a time, I found myself in awe of the late 2000s Blazers and how hopeful that era was. When Roy and Oden went away, it made me desperate to find a way to replace it. I remember wanting Portland to trade LMA for Harden back in 2012 because I absolutely knew Harden was a superstar SG like Roy would've been and felt he would fit well next to Dame, a PG whose workout apparently mirrored KD's.

Harden's profile and traits matched as such. Ideally, LMA would be closer to Texas and KD probably would've done better with LMA+Russ. Everyone would've been happy.

Then, in the next draft, I wanted Giannis and Gobert.

Dame-Harden-Batum-Giannis-Gobert would be a legitimate team, don't you think? Kyle Anderson (my 2014 guy for Portland to acquire) would've come off the bench, too.

My point here is not to brag. My point is that, I think I've might've unlocked a way of viewing things over the years that could lead to NBA success and again, I wanted to document it. I appear to be correct on Sharpe. He looks like he could be the star we want and fits the SG archetype that Wade, Kobe, Harden, Roy, Carter, Edwards does.

And I might be correct on Amen over Scoot (and even over Miller) if Amen pans out to become who I thought he'd be, which is a top tier defensive wing with Giannis-lite traits. Again, I spotted Giannis in the past, I know I'll spot another one....which Amen is not 100% the same but he has traits that could propel him to be a 23/8/5 forward who can play lockdown defense.

I do think Cody Williams and Zach Edey (or Donovan Clingan, if you think his foot is okay) are the way to go, in this draft. Then, rebuilding in 2025 and maybe 2026, at the latest, is the path for Portland to secure what the OKC Thunder currently are.

If we do not go that route, then, I'll say you should worry and place your future investments in something else other than the current Blazer brass, not because this particular draft matters over others but moreso that it's indicative of a front office/ownership that is more like what the Kings were for years rather than one that knows how to win championships.

 

[CJ_is_Gone]

Personally, this is exactly why I wanted Amen, instead, as it properly prepared the Blazers for a rebuild that would be more like Roy-Oden-LMA-Batum, where multiple positions are covered within three years and defense is secured at 3/5 positions (a minimum for championship squads, historically), rebounding is secured, and there is a variety of different pieces moving that they compliment one another (shooting opens up for twin towers, LMA can play at mid-range or inside, Oden can feast inside, Roy was 3 level scorer, front court defense covers back court, etc).

Short PGs are useful but building around short PGs doesn't really win championships (Steph is GOAT shooter, Zeke is exception) so this notion to chase a Dame replacement was a foolish one, to begin with.

As a caveat, one of the reasons I started this account and a few others like it is to document my picks. Once upon a time, I found myself in awe of the late 2000s Blazers and how hopeful that era was. When Roy and Oden went away, it made me desperate to find a way to replace it. I remember wanting Portland to trade LMA for Harden back in 2012 because I absolutely knew Harden was a superstar SG like Roy would've been and felt he would fit well next to Dame, a PG whose workout apparently mirrored KD's.

Harden's profile and traits matched as such. Ideally, LMA would be closer to Texas and KD probably would've done better with LMA+Russ. Everyone would've been happy.

Then, in the next draft, I wanted Giannis and Gobert.

Dame-Harden-Batum-Giannis-Gobert would be a legitimate team, don't you think? Kyle Anderson (my 2014 guy for Portland to acquire) would've come off the bench, too.

My point here is not to brag. My point is that, I think I've might've unlocked a way of viewing things over the years that could lead to NBA success and again, I wanted to document it. I appear to be correct on Sharpe. He looks like he could be the star we want and fits the SG archetype that Wade, Kobe, Harden, Roy, Carter, Edwards does.

And I might be correct on Amen over Scoot (and even over Miller) if Amen pans out to become who I thought he'd be, which is a top tier defensive wing with Giannis-lite traits. Again, I spotted Giannis in the past, I know I'll spot another one....which Amen is not 100% the same but he has traits that could propel him to be a 23/8/5 forward who can play lockdown defense.

I do think Cody Williams and Zach Edey (or Donovan Clingan, if you think his foot is okay) are the way to go, in this draft. Then, rebuilding in 2025 and maybe 2026, at the latest, is the path for Portland to secure what the OKC Thunder currently are.

If we do not go that route, then, I'll say you should worry and place your future investments in something else other than the current Blazer brass, not because this particular draft matters over others but moreso that it's indicative of a front office/ownership that is more like what the Kings were for years rather than one that knows how to win championships.

What do you think of Kyshawn George?

I view him as the same type of player as Cody Williams... but probably a better shooter.

What are your top 10 in this draft?

Mine are:

I like this format best:

Tier 1 - Likely All-Star
None

Tier 2 - Quality Starters with upside
Sarr, Castle, Risacher, Holland

Tier 3 - Decent Starters
Sheppard, Holmes, Buzelis,

Tier 3a - High Variance Players (Boom/Bust)
George, Cody Williams, Topic, Hansen Yang, Chomche, Ivisic,

Tier 4 - Low End Starters, High Level Reserve Role Players
Edey, Walter, Missi, Dillingham, Salaun, Smith, Clingan, Furphy, Knecht, Dunn

 

[wizenheimer]

My post was simply a statement of what I expect to happen. My opinions, and that’s what they are, reflect what I have seen from this organization since PA died. I don’t expect any commitment to a long losing period because I don’t think there’s enough organizational direction to suffer through that. I don’t think that changes until ownership changes. I think Cronin has to do the best he can within the constraints of that reality.

ok, understood....seems like we're kind of in agreement then

the priorities out of Seattle don't match building a contender, and aren't even concerned with having a winning team that is a pretender

as for Cronin, I defended him at first when he was getting all the flak about dumping CJ-Powell-RoCo-Nance. I don't think he did enough in the 2022 of-season but maybe there weren't good opportunities available. What he did this last off-season was pretty bad, IMO

 

[julius]

Kings fans said that for almost 2 decades. At 70 I don't know if I have 2 decades to be that patient. I think the draft, fantasy projections are for young folks who follow college ball and still like it more than the NBA game. The lottery becomes the Oscar award show for college players. I honestly believe playoff experience is how you become a contender for young players and coaches...it's a shame our young talent has never sniffed the playoffs other than Banton. That's a school all of its own. Same for the coaching staff. Every possession counts in the playoffs.

I forgot to mention perspective

 

[MrDraftGuy]

What do you think of Kyshawn George?

What are your top 10 in this draft?

I view him as something akin to Anthony Black, as an archetype, but currently not as talented as Black was in college (and I preferred Jarace Walker and the Thompsons over Black).

The way I see it, this is a very normal and average draft, especially compared to how spoiled we've been in the last few. In average drafts, we tend to see 4-5 All Stars rather than the 6+ in an above average to good draft (and the 3 in a bad draft). Additionally, you have to factor in that we've seen an international All-Star just about every year since Giannis got drafted, with two All-Stars every couple of years. That means it's less likely we'll ever see a 2000 or even 2013 ever again.

Should be 4-5 All Stars in this draft.

Tier 0 - Perennial All-Star/Superstar

Tier 1 - All-Star
Williams, Risacher, Castle, Clingan (if healthy)

Tier 2 - Borderline All-Star
Sheppard, Holland, Edey (like a Draymond, the right role could put him up a tier), Topic

Tier 3 - Starters/Roleplayers
Sarr, Buzelis, Missi, Collier

Tier 4 - Roleplayers/Bench/Journeymen
Dillingham, Knecht, Furphy, George

I expect a few of these players might go up or down a notch as their careers progress but that's how I currently see them, in terms of tiers.

 

[HailBlazers]

The futures so bright I gotta wear shades

 

[e_blazer]

ok, understood....seems like we're kind of in agreement then

the priorities out of Seattle don't match building a contender, and aren't even concerned with having a winning team that is a pretender

as for Cronin, I defended him at first when he was getting all the flak about dumping CJ-Powell-RoCo-Nance. I don't think he did enough in the 2022 of-season but maybe there weren't good opportunities available. What he did this last off-season was pretty bad, IMO

I see Joe as a placeholder until the franchise is sold. I can't imagine him lasting under a new ownership group that's interested in winning.

 

[wizenheimer]

I see Joe as a placeholder until the franchise is sold. I can't imagine him lasting under a new ownership group that's interested in winning.

apparently, mentioning Jody Allen's motivation for NOT selling the team rankles a couple of people. But it's out there anyway. She's specified as the executor by PA's will and the executor is guaranteed a "reasonable" annual fee for managing the estate. I am not sure it's specified anywhere what 'reasonable' is, and if not, who determines that rate. In the state of Washington an appropriate fee is considered in the 2-5% range. If Jody is the one who determines what the fee is, she could say it's 5%. last year the Blazers were valued at 3B. If Jody said reasonable was 5% she could be 'earning' 150M/year as the executor....which is pretty substantial reason to slow-walk any sale

I think the Blazers will be stuck in the Vulcan purgatory for a lot of years

 

[e_blazer]

apparently, mentioning Jody Allen's motivation for NOT selling the team rankles a couple of people. But it's out there anyway. She's specified as the executor by PA's will and the executor is guaranteed a "reasonable" annual fee for managing the estate. I am not sure it's specified anywhere what 'reasonable' is, and if not, who determines that rate. In the state of Washington an appropriate fee is considered in the 2-5% range. If Jody is the one who determines what the fee is, she could say it's 5%. last year the Blazers were valued at 3B. If Jody said reasonable was 5% she could be 'earning' 150M/year as the executor....which is pretty substantial reason to slow-walk any sale

I think the Blazers will be stuck in the Vulcan purgatory for a lot of years

Yeah, I've read similar information elsewhere. I don't remember exactly where, but it makes total sense. Obviously, we don't know what she gets out of the sale as an heir, but assuming it's not much, then stringing this out for years is a smart play on her part. Just sucks for Blazers fans.

 

[Natebishop3]

Cronin hasn't done a good job of re-stocking it yet...

I don't understand how you can feel this way.

We have a ton of young prospects that have shown promise. Shaedon, Scoot, Rupert, Murray, Camara, Jabari Walker, Banton, etc.

We have brought in some promising picks from the Bucks and Warriors. Considering what our cupboards looked like a couple years ago, I think Joe has done a damn fine job of restocking them in just a short period of time.