The imaginary connection between tax rates and GDP

Welcome to our community

Be a part of something great, join today!

MARIS61

Real American
Joined
Sep 12, 2008
Messages
28,007
Likes
5,012
Points
113
...
Proponents of lowering this rate argue that higher marginal tax rates retard productivity for the highest earners, since they are reluctant to work as hard if the bulk of their income is taxed at too high of rate. Lower the rate, the thinking goes, and the rich are incentivized to earn more, thus increasing the total tax revenue and putting more money into the economy.

Democrats point to studies like that of the Congressional Budget Office, which found that cutting income tax by 10 percent would reduce revenues by $466 billion in five years and another $775 billion in the next five years. Under the most optimistic estimates, the benefits of putting more money in people's pockets would offset 22 percent of the losses in the first five years and 32 percent in the next five, for a net loss of almost $900 billion.

We decided to look at what the data say about the correlation between marginal tax rates and the economy. Here's a simple comparison of the marginal tax rate--that on the highest income brackets--and the rate of GDP growth or decline.

Top-Marginal-Tax-Rate-and-GDP-Growth.png


Top Marginal Tax Rate and GDP Growth
Sources: BEA and Tax Policy Center of Urban Institute and Brookings Institute

As is clear, GDP growth, the all-important measure of economic strength, does not correlate with the marginal tax rate at all. GDP growth has been both strong and weak with very high and low tax rates.

There is no question that people change their earning behavior when marginal returns vary. Right now we tax the marginal capital gain at 15 percent, a full 20 points lower than the rate for traditional income. Thus, people substitute initiatives that lead to capital gains f0r initiatives that lead to regular income. In short, the highest earners in the country are more likely to shift income between tax categories than they are to actually substitute leisure for work.
...
But the data are very clear on the point that a lower tax margin for the wealthiest earners does not positively affect the GDP in any obvious way.


http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/does-28-top-marginal-tax-rate-mean-175706337.html
 
I saw a similar graph that had belief in god as the blue line and actual reality as the red line.

No correlation there, either.
 
The Republican party represents the rich class, and the Democrats everyone else. My next door neighbor, an Air Force sergeant, told me that in the 60s, and it has been common knowledge at least since the Depression.

Rich conservatives contribute to politicians whom they expect will earn them a return on investment. The creative Republican politicians make up rationalizations, e.g. cutting taxes on the rich will get the rich to hire people, and they won't buy any foreign goods or take foreign vacations with the money saved.
 
The Republican party represents the rich class, and the Democrats everyone else. My next door neighbor, an Air Force sergeant, told me that in the 60s, and it has been common knowledge at least since the Depression.

Rich conservatives contribute to politicians whom they expect will earn them a return on investment. The creative Republican politicians make up rationalizations, e.g. cutting taxes on the rich will get the rich to hire people, and they won't buy any foreign goods or take foreign vacations with the money saved.

Then why do so many wealthy people monetarily support the dems and poorer people the GOP?
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top