The Jasmine Revolution is spreading

[maxiep]

Egypt has reportedly shut off the internet throughout the entire country. Mubarak doesn't look like he'll rule much longer.

 

[MARIS61]

What does the Yasmine Revolution have to do with Egypt and Mubarak?

Other than sand, I see no connection.[video]http://www.bing.com/videos/watch/vi...a610383-479602148317?q=yasmine bleeth[/video]

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

Parents were about to book to Egypt in May...glad they backed out. I sent them several articles regarding this and other problems (violence against coptic christians, etc).

 

[maxiep]

God, I hope this doesn't become another Iran. A stable and Western-leaning Egypt is critical for that region of the world.

 

[Eastoff]

What does the Yasmine Revolution have to do with Egypt and Mubarak?

Other than sand, I see no connection.[video]http://www.bing.com/videos/watch/vi...a610383-479602148317?q=yasmine bleeth[/video]

Wow. You of all people are making jokes about models when there is such violence and unrest in a political system?

 

[Eastoff]

God, I hope this doesn't become another Iran. A stable and Western-leaning Egypt is critical for that region of the world.

I am just realizing that the extreme right is in fact the ones revolting. This is not Tunisia. The biggest difference between the Tunisian protests and the Egyptian protests is... Gender equality. Count how many women, (if you can find any) in the pictures of the Egyptian protests.

 

[PapaG]

God, I hope this doesn't become another Iran. A stable and Western-leaning Egypt is critical for that region of the world.

The Muslim Brotherhood is behind this uprising, in part, and I think they will fill the power vacuum.

We're all in for a rough ride if Egypt turns into an Islamic state run by extremists.

 

[PapaG]

All people have been evacuated from the Israeli Embassy in Cairo by helicopter.

This isn't a movie. The Egyptian military has some of the best military weapons in the world, thanks to the US. For all of his faults, Mubarak's government was the foundation for the house of cards in that region.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

All people have been evacuated from the Israeli Embassy in Cairo by helicopter.

This isn't a movie. The Egyptian military has some of the best military weapons in the world, thanks to the US. For all of his faults, Mubarak's government was the foundation for the house of cards in that region.

Egypt has good weapons,

Israel has better.

 

[TradeNurkicNow]

God, I hope this doesn't become another Iran. A stable and Western-leaning Egypt is critical for that region of the world.

Egypt is a brutal (albeit semi-secretly) dictatorship that has been Western-leaning for decades, and their people are suffering. They have some major faults that I wish we wouldn't encourage. That being said, after this is all over, I hope we support Egypt (and Tunisia for that matter) if they take progressive steps towards human rights.

I am just realizing that the extreme right is in fact the ones revolting. This is not Tunisia. The biggest difference between the Tunisian protests and the Egyptian protests is... Gender equality. Count how many women, (if you can find any) in the pictures of the Egyptian protests.

It's not just the extreme right. In my opinion, the reason you're not seeing women in the pictures is because Egypt has a far more conservative culture than any country in North Africa. You just wouldn't expect Egyptian women to go out and protest in a way that the much more culturally Western Tunisian women do.

The Muslim Brotherhood is behind this uprising, in part, and I think they will fill the power vacuum.

We're all in for a rough ride if Egypt turns into an Islamic state run by extremists.

The Muslim Brotherhood is not behind this uprising. That is something that the Egyptian government has suggested, just as Ben Ali suggested that extremists were behind the uprising in Tunisia. Blaming extremists for popular revolts is a universal tactic among Arab governments, because it draws attention away from the actual problems that are being protested.

However, the Brotherhood does have a significant enough chance to fill the power vacuum if Mubarak is actually ousted to cause some concern.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Protest Planned at Pioneer Square to Support Protesters in Egypt

There's a gathering planned for Pioneer Courthouse Square in support of the protesters in Egypt on Saturday afternoon, Jan. 29.

The Egyptian Association for Change—a group of Egyptians and Egyptian Americans interested in the country's democratic, economic, political and social reform—is hosting a peaceful protest at the downtown Portland square from 2 pm to 5pm.

http://www.wweek.com/portland/blog-...er_square_to_support_protesters_in_egypt.html

Might be worth going, I've been trying to get the hook up on Egyptian cotton sheets for years.

 

[Wheels]

aww I was hopeing for some hot Disney Action when I clicked this thread

 

[SlyPokerDog]

aww I was hopeing for some hot Disney Action when I clicked this thread

You can find that here - http://www.google.com/imghp?hl=en&tab=wi

Just have to find the right words to enter.

 

[ABM]

Walk Like A Egyptian...

They gots them some problems over there..

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110130/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_egypt_protest

Well, it's not like this hasn't been prophesied as such:

He [Ishmael - father of the Arab nation] will be a wild donkey of a man; his hand will be against everyone and everyone's hand against him, and he will live in hostility toward all his brothers."

~Genesis 16:12

BTW, typo on my part. Title should be Walk Like "An" Egyptian. FWIW................

 

[Eastoff]

Re: Walk Like A Egyptian...

this should probably be merged with the jasmine thread

 

[ABM]

Re: Walk Like A Egyptian...

Probably so. I hadn't noticed that thread.

Thanks.

 

[TradeNurkicNow]

Mubarak just kicked Al-Jazeera out of Egypt.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Mubarak just kicked Al-Jazeera out of Egypt.

That happened yesterday but speaking of Al-Jazeera I've been watching their coverage of this and it's been excellent. No anti-USA or Israel slant on chit, just straight news coverage.

 

[TradeNurkicNow]

So no phone service, no internet, no international press. Sounds like Mubarak is getting ready to quell the demonstrations once and for all.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I don't normally get to share stuff I look up with you guys, but this one's public. Just one man's view of the potential outcomes of the Egyptian demonstrations.

This report[/URL] may be forwarded or republished on your website with attribution
to www.stratfor.com

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110130-the-egypt-crisis-in-a-global-context-a-special-report[1/31/2011 11:56:42 AM]

The Egypt Crisis in a Global Context: A Special Report | STRATFOR
By George Friedman


It is not at all clear what will happen
in the Egyptian revolution. It is not a
surprise that this is happening.
Hosni Mubarak has been president for more than a quarter of a century, ever since the assassination of Anwar Sadat. He is old and has been ill. No one expected him to live Protesters wave the Egyptian flag in downtown Cairo much longer, and his apparent plan, on Jan. 30 which was that he would be replaced by his son Gamal, was not going to happen even though it was a possibility a year ago. There was no one, save his closest business associates, who wanted to see Mubarak’s succession plans happen. As his father weakened, Gamal’s succession became even less likely. Mubarak’s failure to design a credible succession plan guaranteed instability on his death. Since everyone knew that there would be instability on his death, there were obviously those who saw little advantage to acting before he died. Who these people were and what they wanted is the issue.

Let’s begin by considering the regime. In 1952, Col. Gamal Abdel Nasser staged a military coup
that displaced the Egyptian monarchy, civilian officers in the military, and British influence in
Egypt. Nasser created a government based on military power as the major stabilizing and
progressive force in Egypt. His revolution was secular and socialist. In short, it was a statist
regime dominated by the military. On Nasser’s death, Anwar Sadat replaced him. On Sadat’s
assassination, Hosni Mubarak replaced him. Both of these men came from the military as
Nasser did. However their foreign policy might have differed from Nasser’s, the regime
remained intact.

Mubarak’s Opponents

The demands for Mubarak’s resignation come from many quarters, including from members of
the regime — particularly the military — who regard Mubarak’s unwillingness to permit them to
dictate the succession as endangering the regime. For some of them, the demonstrations
represent both a threat and opportunity. Obviously, the demonstrations might get out of hand

and destroy the regime. On the other hand, the demonstrations might be enough to force
Mubarak to resign, allow a replacement — for example, Omar Suleiman, the head of
intelligence who Mubarak recently appointed vice president — and thereby save the regime.
This is not to say that they fomented the demonstrations, but some must have seen the
demonstrations as an opportunity.

This is particularly the case in the sense that the demonstrators are deeply divided among
themselves and thus far do not appear to have been able to generate the type of mass
movement that toppled the Shah of Iran’s regime in 1979. More important, the demonstrators
are clearly united in opposing Mubarak as an individual, and to a large extent united in opposing
the regime. Beyond that, there is a deep divide in the opposition.

Western media has read the uprising as a demand for Western-style liberal democracy. Many
certainly are demanding that. What is not clear is that this is moving Egypt’s peasants, workers
and merchant class to rise en masse. Their interests have far more to do with the state of the
Egyptian economy than with the principles of liberal democracy. As in Iran in 2009, the
democratic revolution, if focused on democrats, cannot triumph unless it generates broader
support.

The other element in this uprising is the Muslim Brotherhood. The consensus of most observers
is that the Muslim Brotherhood at this point is no longer a radical movement and is too weak to
influence the revolution. This may be possible, but it is not obvious. The Muslim Brotherhood
has many strands, many of which have been quiet under Mubarak’s repression. It is not clear
who will emerge if Mubarak falls. It is certainly not clear that they are weaker than the
democratic demonstrators. It is a mistake to confuse the Muslim Brotherhood’s caution with
weakness. Another way to look at them is that they have bided their time and toned down their
real views, waiting for the kind of moment provided by Mubarak’s succession. I would suspect
that the Muslim Brotherhood has more potential influence among the Egyptian masses than the
Western-oriented demonstrators or Mohamed ElBaradei, the former head of the International
Atomic Energy Agency, who is emerging as their leader.

There is, of course, the usual discussion of what U.S. President Barack Obama’s view is, or
what the Europeans think, or what the Iranians are up to. All of them undoubtedly have thoughts
and even plans. In my view, trying to shape the political dynamics of a country like Egypt from
Iran or the United States is futile, and believing that what is happening in Egypt is the result of
their conspiracies is nonsense. A lot of people care what is happening there, and a lot of people
are saying all sorts of things and even spending money on spies and Twitter. Egypt’s regime
can be influenced in this way, but a revolution really doesn’t depend on what the European
Union or Tehran says.

There are four outcomes possible. First, the regime might survive. Mubarak might stabilize the
situation, or more likely, another senior military official would replace him after a decent interval.
Another possibility under the scenario of the regime’s survival is that there may be a coup of the
colonels, as we discussed yesterday. A second possibility is that the demonstrators might force
elections in which ElBaradei or someone like him could be elected and Egypt might overthrow
the statist model built by Nasser and proceed on the path of democracy. The third possibility is
that the demonstrators force elections, which the Muslim Brotherhood could win and move
forward with an Islamist-oriented agenda. The fourth possibility is that Egypt will sink into
political chaos. The most likely path to this would be elections that result in political gridlock in
which a viable candidate cannot be elected. If I were forced to choose, I would bet on the
regime stabilizing itself and Mubarak leaving because of the relative weakness and division of
the demonstrators. But that’s a guess and not a forecast.


Geopolitical Significance

Whatever happens matters a great deal to Egyptians. But only some of these outcomes are
significant to the world. Among radical Islamists, the prospect of a radicalized Egypt represents
a new lease on life. For Iran, such an outcome would be less pleasing. Iran is now the emerging
center of radical Islamism; it would not welcome competition from Egypt, though it may be
content with an Islamist Egypt that acts as an Iranian ally (something that would not be easy to
ensure).

For the United States, an Islamist Egypt would be a strategic catastrophe. Egypt is the center of
gravity in the Arab world. This would not only change the dynamic of the Arab world, it would
reverse U.S. strategy since the end of the 1973 Arab-Israeli war. Sadat’s decision to reverse his
alliance with the Soviets and form an alliance with the United States undermined the Soviet
position in the Mediterranean and in the Arab world and strengthened the United States
immeasurably. The support of Egyptian intelligence after 9/11 was critical in blocking and
undermining al Qaeda. Were Egypt to stop that cooperation or become hostile, the U.S.
strategy would be severely undermined.

The great loser would be Israel. Israel’s national security has rested on its treaty with Egypt,
signed by Menachem Begin with much criticism by the Israeli right. The demilitarization of the
Sinai Peninsula not only protected Israel’s southern front, it meant that the survival of Israel was
no longer at stake. Israel fought three wars (1948, 1967 and 1973) where its very existence was
at issue. The threat was always from Egypt, and without Egypt in the mix, no coalition of powers
could threaten Israel (excluding the now-distant possibility of Iranian nuclear weapons). In all of
the wars Israel fought after its treaty with Egypt (the 1982 and 2006 wars in Lebanon) Israeli
interests, but not survival, were at stake.

If Egypt were to abrogate the Camp David Accords and over time reconstruct its military into an
effective force, the existential threat to Israel that existed before the treaty was signed would re-
emerge. This would not happen quickly, but Israel would have to deal with two realities. The first
is that the Israeli military is not nearly large enough or strong enough to occupy and control
Egypt. The second is that the development of Egypt’s military would impose substantial costs
on Israel and limit its room for maneuver.

There is thus a scenario that would potentially strengthen the radical Islamists while putting the
United States, Israel, and potentially even Iran at a disadvantage, all for different reasons. That
scenario emerges only if two things happen. First, the Muslim Brotherhood must become a
dominant political force in Egypt. Second, they must turn out to be more radical than most
observers currently believe they are — or they must, with power, evolve into something more
radical.

If the advocates for democracy win, and if they elect someone like ElBaradei, it is unlikely that
this scenario would take place. The pro-Western democratic faction is primarily concerned with
domestic issues, are themselves secular and would not want to return to the wartime state prior
to Camp David, because that would simply strengthen the military. If they win power, the
geopolitical arrangements would remain unchanged.

Similarly, the geopolitical arrangements would remain in place if the military regime retained
power — save for one scenario. If it was decided that the regime’s unpopularity could be
mitigated by assuming a more anti-Western and anti-Israeli policy — in other words, if the
regime decided to play the Islamist card, the situation could evolve as a Muslim Brotherhood
government would. Indeed, as hard as it is to imagine, there could be an alliance with the
Muslim Brotherhood designed to stabilize the regime. Stranger things have happened.


When we look at the political dynamic of Egypt, and try to imagine its connection to the
international system, we can see that there are several scenarios under which certain political
outcomes would have profound effects on the way the world works. That should not be
surprising. When Egypt was a pro-Soviet Nasserite state, the world was a very different place
than it had been before Nasser. When Sadat changed his foreign policy the world changed with
it. If the Sadat foreign policy changes, the world changes again. Egypt is one of those countries
whose internal politics matter to more than its own citizens.

Most of the outcomes I envision leave Egypt pretty much where it is. But not all. The situation is,
as they say, in doubt, and the outcome is not trivial.

 

[Rodolfo]

Talked to a guy from Alexandria the other day. Says his whole family is protesting with everyone else. Also mentioned that they live right next to a police station. Or they did because it was burned to the ground(probably with the help of his family members). The guy was very much in favor of Mubarak being removed.

 

[TradeNurkicNow]

Big ups to youtube for this

http://www.youtube.com/citizentube

 

[PapaG]

Talked to a guy from Alexandria the other day. Says his whole family is protesting with everyone else. Also mentioned that they live right next to a police station. Or they did because it was burned to the ground(probably with the help of his family members). The guy was very much in favor of Mubarak being removed.

It's usually not a good idea to burn down your own police protection, even if you despise it. Is Egypt basically lawless at this point?

 

[Ed O]

I really fear that moderate Egyptians are taking themselves from the frying pan into the fire.

In a vacuum, the most willful and organized entity generally steps in.

The Muslim Brotherhood has specific goals and they have been forced into organizational efficiencies after years of being persecuted by the present/past regime. They have little incentive to share power after Mubarak is removed... and who is going to stop them from taking it?

Ed O.

 

[MARIS61]

So no phone service, no internet, no international press. Sounds like Mubarak is getting ready to quell the demonstrations once and for all.

Or die trying.

The achille's heel with tyrants is they're too arrogant to realize when it's time to gather the money and run.

 

[MARIS61]

I really fear that moderate Egyptians are taking themselves from the frying pan into the fire.

In a vacuum, the most willful and organized entity generally steps in.

The Muslim Brotherhood has specific goals and they have been forced into organizational efficiencies after years of being persecuted by the present/past regime. They have little incentive to share power after Mubarak is removed... and who is going to stop them from taking it?

Ed O.

The CIA, MOSSAD...

I expect we'll be reading about some key assassinations in the very near future.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

It's crackin' now! 2 million protesters in Cairo, the military says it will not harm or try to stop them.

Fascinating to watch!

http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

 

[maxiep]

Mubarak is saying he won't run again. Too little, too late.

It's my hope the military takes control and then elections are held with the MB still outlawed from participating.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I'm definitely not as familiar with Egypt as many...I tend to deal with West Africa. But is Al-Baradei (former IAEA who couldn't find nukes and didn't think Iran is making nuclear weapons, right?) someone who, while espousing democracy and peoples' rights, is in bed with those who he's been protecting from his UN position? Or is he above board as a Nobel-winning public servant?

It's not a leading question. I just don't know. But on first sniff, my hackles are a bit raised.

 

[TradeNurkicNow]

El Baradei is a far better choice than Mubarak. True, he's got some issues, but as long as he doesn't stay in power after his term is up, I'd support him.

I have a feeling the Brotherhood won't win any elections.