The "Making Playoffs Means Mediocrity" Myth

[KingSpeed]

MM and some others will have you believe that if we make the playoffs and get eliminated by the Thunder in the first round, we'll be stuck in mediocrity and it would be better to get the 12th pick in a weak draft. But the TRUTH is that getting knocked out of the first round is often the first step towards greatness. The 2011 NBA Champs both got knocked out of the first round the year before they won the title. The 2008 Lakers reached the NBA Finals one year after losing in first round (EDIT). And the Thunder got knocked out of the first round two years before reaching the Finals.

If our team is good enough to compete for a playoff spot, and I believe the core is, we should be encouraging that and if a player like Kenyon Martin or Nate Robinson helps make the achievement of Lillard reaching the playoffs in his rookie year, we should be all for it. Look at Derrick Rose. His team reached the playoffs his first year and got knocked out in the first round. That was GREAT experience for him. Exactly two years later, he won MVP and reached the ECF. His team got the #1 seed again the following year.

Look, barring major injuries, our team is too talented to finish with 20-30 wins and compete for the #1 pick. We're gonna win at least 38 so the pick won't matter. Let's get Lillard and company into the playoffs and see how far they can go. You never know, maybe Durant gets hurt and we reach the second round like Philly did last year. It would be great experience for our guys. Then we sign some free agents and go for a longer run (WCF?) in 2014.

Go Blazers

 

[julius]

Um....the 2009 champs were in the finals in 2008.

Learn the game then post

 

[Mediocre Man]

Looking at Derrick Rose is perfect.

Rose was the 1ST PICK in the draft

In a weak eastern conference, they made the playoffs his first and second year

Then signed a top tier FA in Carlos Boozer and went to the ECF

Also in 2007, they were bad enough to draft Joakim Noah

So before they were real competitors, they had Rose, Noah and Boozer


You have to be bad before you can be good

 

[BlazerCaravan]

A couple of interesting questions out of that, MM2.0: we seem to have (from the last time we were bad), our Boozer (LMA) and half of a Noah (Batum). We currently have on a one year deal the other half of a Noah (JJ). Lillard should have been the number 2 pick in the draft, so he's our Rose. Granted, our setup is classic "poor man's version" material, but I like LMA vs Boozer, and JJcola Hicktum vs Noah. Lillard's ceiling is very likely much lower than Rose's but you never know; he's the type to tell ceilings to fuck off and get out of his way.

In short, we were bad before we got good, then bad again, and now we could be good if we get a bench. And a defensive coach. And a good ROI on Leonard. But we don't need more rookies (lord God no more five-rookie summers!), and we don't need (necessarily) a Home Run FA. We just need to play hard and get better to the point where our specific needs become more obvious (e.g., what kind of bench player, or which player to target).

 

[Natebishop3]

I think we're getting ready for a jump, but this summer will be crucial.

How will we spend our money?

Will we make any trades?

Will we keep our pick or will it go to Charlotte?

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

MM and some others will have you believe that if we make the playoffs and get eliminated by the Thunder in the first round, we'll be stuck in mediocrity and it would be better to get the 12th pick in a weak draft. But the TRUTH is that getting knocked out of the first round is often the first step towards greatness. The 2009 and 2011 NBA Champs both got knocked out of the first round the year before they won the title. And the Thunder got knocked out of the first round two years before reaching the Finals.

If we make the playoffs, fine. I think the line of thinking is that we are so devoid of quantity of talented players that to have a lottery pick is a much better way than overpaying vets to upgrade the quantity of talented players. To be sure we have to add 3 to 5 players better than what we have coming off the bench now. Maybe we can get 3 free agents, but if we added a top notch draft pick it makes the Free agent search easier.

If our team is good enough to compete for a playoff spot, and I believe the core is, we should be encouraging that and if a player like Kenyon Martin or Nate Robinson helps make the achievement of Lillard reaching the playoffs in his rookie year, we should be all for it. Look at Derrick Rose. His team reached the playoffs his first year and got knocked out in the first round. That was GREAT experience for him. Exactly two years later, he won MVP and reached the ECF. His team got the #1 seed again the following year.

So long as the vets were adding are good enough to help bring along the lesser and younger players, fine. But to add any vets that are cancers (and I'm not saying the two you mention are) is counterproductive. So be careful what you wish for.

Look, barring major injuries, our team is too talented to finish with 20-30 wins and compete for the #1 pick.

Look, I know weed is now legal in Washington, but not LSD. This is a team destined for no more than 36 wins. Can we get to the 38 you mention? Maybe. But if so, that would be one hell of a season.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

I think we're getting ready for a jump, but this summer will be crucial.

How will we spend our money?

Will we make any trades?

Will we keep our pick or will it go to Charlotte?

I think this is in the correct order of importance. The pick is practically meaningless unless we get the first pick, which just isn't happening.

 

[Mediocre Man]

A couple of interesting questions out of that, MM2.0: we seem to have (from the last time we were bad), our Boozer (LMA) and half of a Noah (Batum). We currently have on a one year deal the other half of a Noah (JJ). Lillard should have been the number 2 pick in the draft, so he's our Rose. Granted, our setup is classic "poor man's version" material, but I like LMA vs Boozer, and JJcola Hicktum vs Noah. Lillard's ceiling is very likely much lower than Rose's but you never know; he's the type to tell ceilings to fuck off and get out of his way.

In short, we were bad before we got good, then bad again, and now we could be good if we get a bench. And a defensive coach. And a good ROI on Leonard. But we don't need more rookies (lord God no more five-rookie summers!), and we don't need (necessarily) a Home Run FA. We just need to play hard and get better to the point where our specific needs become more obvious (e.g., what kind of bench player, or which player to target).

I don't want to be misunderstood here. I don't think we are that far away, at all. We just aren't there yet. Also, don't forget that team went from Vinny D to Tom T. Their defensive rating went from 108.7 to 105.3 under Vinny to 100.3 under Tom

 

[Mediocre Man]

I think this is in the correct order of importance. The pick is practically meaningless unless we get the first pick, which just isn't happening.

I think a lot of people are undervaluing this drafts top 10. Portland will more than likely end up there, and should be able to land a very good player.

There seems to be 3 players in this draft that are consensus top 3 in Shabazz, Noel and Zeller. Gobert and Len seem to be in the next tier. Then you have guys like Poythress, McAdoo, Goodwin, McLemore, Smart, Porter, Robinson. All of those players are better than anyone we have on our bench right now

 

[Natebishop3]

I think a lot of people are undervaluing this drafts top 10. Portland will more than likely end up there, and should be able to land a very good player.

There seems to be 3 players in this draft that are consensus top 3 in Shabazz, Noel and Zeller. Gobert and Len seem to be in the next tier. Then you have guys like Poythress, McAdoo, Goodwin, McLemore, Smart, Porter, Robinson. All of those players are better than anyone we have on our bench right now

I'm hoping they draft BPA because right now we don't have a lot of holes. I'm hoping we can fill a need at shooting guard through free agency. Reddick would be ideal to me. I want a bomber from deep. Someone who is lights out that Lillard can kick to. Either that or go after Pekovic.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

fwiw noah was drafted at #10 i believe, prolly about where the blazers will be

and eventually, god willing...the team might get better.... its not something to fear

 

[Mediocre Man]

fwiw noah was drafted at #10 i believe, prolly about where the blazers will be

and eventually, god willing...the team might get better.... its not something to fear

9th actually, but yes, right in that area

 

[HailBlazers]

MM and some others will have you believe that if we make the playoffs and get eliminated by the Thunder in the first round, we'll be stuck in mediocrity and it would be better to get the 12th pick in a weak draft. But the TRUTH is that getting knocked out of the first round is often the first step towards greatness. The 2009 and 2011 NBA Champs both got knocked out of the first round the year before they won the title. And the Thunder got knocked out of the first round two years before reaching the Finals.

If our team is good enough to compete for a playoff spot, and I believe the core is, we should be encouraging that and if a player like Kenyon Martin or Nate Robinson helps make the achievement of Lillard reaching the playoffs in his rookie year, we should be all for it. Look at Derrick Rose. His team reached the playoffs his first year and got knocked out in the first round. That was GREAT experience for him. Exactly two years later, he won MVP and reached the ECF. His team got the #1 seed again the following year.

Look, barring major injuries, our team is too talented to finish with 20-30 wins and compete for the #1 pick. We're gonna win at least 38 so the pick won't matter. Let's get Lillard and company into the playoffs and see how far they can go. You never know, maybe Durant gets hurt and we reach the second round like Philly did last year. It would be great experience for our guys. Then we sign some free agents and go for a longer run (WCF?) in 2014.

Go Blazers

Every once and a while you surprise Kingspeed! Solid post, prospective is everything. Repped.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Every once and a while you surprise Kingspeed! Solid post, prospective is everything. Repped.

Except it's completely wrong in every way

 

[HailBlazers]

Except it's completely wrong in every way

Your Perspective = Your Reality

 

[Mediocre Man]

Your Perspective = Your Reality

Actually history backs "my perspective" up pretty well

 

[Pinwheel1]

At some point we will all have to agree to disagree on this subject. No matter how many ways we look at it, there is no proven right way. There are many example of losing and never winning the big prize and there are examples of perennial lottery teams getting to the conference championships with the right pick.

The Blazers have been to the conference championship 4 times since 1990. Little of which was from being in the lottery.

Golden State, the Clippers, Memphis, Toronto, Milwaukee, Washington, have yet to be that lucky. The Clippers may this year, but it was a trade that bailed them out.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

Except it's completely wrong in every way

That's beside the point. We're trying to build his self esteem.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

At some point we will all have to agree to disagree on this subject.

I disagree.

 

[HailBlazers]

At some point we will all have to agree to disagree on this subject. No matter how many ways we look at it, there is no proven right way. There are many example of losing and never winning the big prize and there are examples of perennial lottery teams getting to the conference championships with the right pick.

The Blazers have been to the conference championship 4 times since 1990. Little of which was from being in the lottery.

This. There are waay too many ever changing variables to be one correct way, or to even "know" the right path. That's why having a competent and creative GM is so important, especially for a small market team.

 

[magnifier661]

I always think a team should always try to win a championship every year. That incroporated mentality only brings a winning culture and mindset. If we are playing to be competitive and get a lotto pick; the players won't have that "I want to win mentality". It's one thing if you just aren't good enough. It's entirely different if you have the talent to make it, with just a couple more vets, but you decide not to and fail to make the playoffs.

 

[Mediocre Man]

At some point we will all have to agree to disagree on this subject. No matter how many ways we look at it, there is no proven right way. There are many example of losing and never winning the big prize and there are examples of perennial lottery teams getting to the conference championships with the right pick.

The Blazers have been to the conference championship 4 times since 1990. Little of which was from being in the lottery.

Golden State, the Clippers, Memphis, Toronto, Milwaukee, Washington, have yet to be that lucky. The Clippers may this year, but it was a trade that bailed them out.

The Clippers traded lottery picks for a superstar

As for Portland and those teams, the players that were our best players were mostly lottery picks.

 

[Mediocre Man]

I always think a team should always try to win a championship every year. That incroporated mentality only brings a winning culture and mindset. If we are playing to be competitive and get a lotto pick; the players won't have that "I want to win mentality". It's one thing if you just aren't good enough. It's entirely different if you have the talent to make it, with just a couple more vets, but you decide not to and fail to make the playoffs.

You see, I feel the EXACT same way. A team should always be trying to win a title. If not you get stuck where Portland has been for far too long. However, in order to compete for a championship, you have to have at least 1 superstar, or 2-3 major all-stars. Small market teams get those players in the draft. Look at our best players. Aldridge, Lillard, Batum all acquired through the draft, whether it be drafted or draft day trade. They didn't sign on initially to play in Portland

james/Wade/Bosh vs Durant/Westbrook
Dirk/Kidd/Chandler vs James/Wade/Bos
Kobe/Pau/Bynum vs Garnett/Allen/Pierce
Kobe vs Howard
Bos 3 vs Kobe
SA 3 vs James


All of those teams have at least 1 mega star on their team

 

[magnifier661]

You see, I feel the EXACT same way. A team should always be trying to win a title. If not you get stuck where Portland has been for far too long. However, in order to compete for a championship, you have to have at least 1 superstar, or 2-3 major all-stars. Small market teams get those players in the draft. Look at our best players. Aldridge, Lillard, Batum all acquired through the draft, whether it be drafted or draft day trade. They didn't sign on initially to play in Portland

james/Wade/Bosh vs Durant/Westbrook
Dirk/Kidd/Chandler vs James/Wade/Bos
Kobe/Pau/Bynum vs Garnett/Allen/Pierce
Kobe vs Howard
Bos 3 vs Kobe
SA 3 vs James


All of those teams have at least 1 mega star on their team

Lillard has the potential to be our superstar. Aldridge has already been an all star. Batum has the ability to make it there too. Then we already have the garbage player in hickson and a bench shooter in Babbitt. We have that defensive guard in Matthews; which only leaves us a couple vets to reach that next level.

In the playoffs; rotations are 8-9. Lillard, batum, Aldridge, Matthews, hickson, Babbitt, leanord are all good. Add two more vets (pg and sg) and we got all the necessary components.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Lillard has the potential to be our superstar. Aldridge has already been an all star. Batum has the ability to make it there too. Then we already have the garbage player in hickson and a bench shooter in Babbitt. We have that defensive guard in Matthews; which only leaves us a couple vets to reach that next level.

In the playoffs; rotations are 8-9. Lillard, batum, Aldridge, Matthews, hickson, Babbitt, leanord are all good. Add two more vets (pg and sg) and we got all the necessary components.

Leonard sucks at this point
Babbitt wouldn't see any time on a real team


Our next level is making the playoffs . Portland simply isn't close enough, IMO, to think they can compete now. We are still a good year away from the playoffs, and probably another 3 years from competing for home court in the playoffs. Unless of course Olshey pulls off a Chris Paul type trade, where he uses lotto picks to get a disgruntled star, that wouldn't mind going to a small market

 

[magnifier661]

Leonard sucks at this point
Babbitt wouldn't see any time on a real team


Our next level is making the playoffs . Portland simply isn't close enough, IMO, to think they can compete now. We are still a good year away from the playoffs, and probably another 3 years from competing for home court in the playoffs. Unless of course Olshey pulls off a Chris Paul type trade, where he uses lotto picks to get a disgruntled star, that wouldn't mind going to a small market

Craig Hodges on the Bulls saw time in Chicago just being a shooter off the bench. Leanord is a diamond in the rough. He's gonna need a couple years to get into the flow.

 

[Pinwheel1]

The Clippers traded lottery picks for a superstar

As for Portland and those teams, the players that were our best players were mostly lottery picks.

Exactly but they were not ours, (Other than Clyde at number #14) and Buck who we got for Bowie, we got them without having a high lottery pick. So there is an argument that can be made that we don't need to hit rock bottom in order to get to the top.

As for the Clippers, yes they traded lottery picks for Cp3, but I think we can all agree that we can't rely on another New Orleans situation to occur. Plus the LA market is a big part of him re-signing. (If he does)

 

[BlazerWookee]

Thing is, I think Lillard (and to a lesser extent Leonard) getting a taste of real playoff basketball adds significantly more long-term value than getting a little better chance at a higher draft pick. If we go one-and-done his first year, how much more driven do you think he'll be over the summer than he would be after coasting through to the end of a losing season?

 

[Mediocre Man]

Craig Hodges on the Bulls saw time in Chicago just being a shooter off the bench. Leanord is a diamond in the rough. He's gonna need a couple years to get into the flow.

My point exactly

 

[HailBlazers]

Thing is, I think Lillard (and to a lesser extent Leonard) getting a taste of real playoff basketball adds significantly more long-term value than getting a little better chance at a higher draft pick.

Word, some serious truth to that.