The Miami Experiment

[BlazerCaravan]

Miami is going to fucking roll through the regular season, the only team that will give them trouble is maybe Orlando or the Lakers in the playoffs.

I honestly wonder if their dominance will basically suck the life out of the other 29 teams' fanbases. I mean, if it's so blatantly obvious they'll win... why even bother?

 

[Nikolokolus]

I honestly wonder if their dominance will basically suck the life out of the other 29 teams' fanbases. I mean, if it's so blatantly obvious they'll win... why even bother?

I guess I don't see it quite that way. I predict they'll win something like 60 wins, but they aren't quite going to be "96 Bulls" good. In any case, they'll make a great villain and if nothing else people will be drawn to the spectacle of seeing the super friends up close and personal. People lie* all the time about liking parity, but the fact is juggernauts generate interest.

*not really a lie, but more like a self delusion

 

[BlazerCaravan]

I guess I don't see it quite that way. I predict they'll win something like 60 wins, but they aren't quite going to be "96 Bulls" good. In any case, they'll make a great villain and if nothing else people will be drawn to the spectacle of seeing the super friends up close and personal. People lie* all the time about liking parity, but the fact is juggernauts generate interest.

*not really a lie, but more like a self delusion

At the very least, I'll be able to get some good scratch selling my tickets to the Miami game.

 

[Nate4Prez]

Who would you rather have?

Ray Allen, Paul Peirce, and Kevin Garnet
or
Wade, Bosh, James

Cause Allen, Pierce, and Garnett had pretty damn good chemistry their first year together. The Celtics went from the worst team in the league to NBA Champions. And Wade, Bosh, and James are all better at their positions right now in their NBA careers.

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

I guess I don't see it quite that way. I predict they'll win something like 60 wins, but they aren't quite going to be "96 Bulls" good. In any case, they'll make a great villain and if nothing else people will be drawn to the spectacle of seeing the super friends up close and personal. People lie* all the time about liking parity, but the fact is juggernauts generate interest.

*not really a lie, but more like a self delusion

That's probably closer to the way I really see it. I think yes, they have the talent to win a lot of games, but will they win 70-75? No chance, still too much parity in the league and the difference between KG, Pierce and Allen is still much closer to LeBron, Wade and Bosh than most people think. This isn't like the 24-hour fitness group their playing, a good Golden State team running the floor and hitting 70% on any given night could beat Miami by 20 pts.

My use of the FIBA games wasn't so much using those teams as an example as a team that could be Miami as much as showing how much chemistry really comes to play. We all know the rules and the location have some value, but in reality, Sacramento or the Nets would be rolling Spain, France and Brazil by 30+ pts because they are a team filled with the elite players in basketball playing a team filled with a couple of those elite players and some guys from the 24-hour fitness. So we see in these FIBA games how much value can be place in chemisty over individual talent on the roster. So don't be surprised if Miami only has a decent 60 win season and gets wiped out in a 7-game series against a team that is used to playing good team ball in the playoffs like Orlando or Boston and Miami is knocked out before they even knew what hit them.

 

[Luther]

Here's how it will play out....
2010-2011 Lakers
2011-2012 Heat
2012-2013 Blazers
2013-2014 Heat
2014-2015 Blazers

 

[RipCityInsider]

That's probably closer to the way I really see it. I think yes, they have the talent to win a lot of games, but will they win 70-75? No chance, still too much parity in the league and the difference between KG, Pierce and Allen is still much closer to LeBron, Wade and Bosh than most people think. This isn't like the 24-hour fitness group their playing, a good Golden State team running the floor and hitting 70% on any given night could beat Miami by 20 pts.

My use of the FIBA games wasn't so much using those teams as an example as a team that could be Miami as much as showing how much chemistry really comes to play. We all know the rules and the location have some value, but in reality, Sacramento or the Nets would be rolling Spain, France and Brazil by 30+ pts because they are a team filled with the elite players in basketball playing a team filled with a couple of those elite players and some guys from the 24-hour fitness. So we see in these FIBA games how much value can be place in chemisty over individual talent on the roster. So don't be surprised if Miami only has a decent 60 win season and gets wiped out in a 7-game series against a team that is used to playing good team ball in the playoffs like Orlando or Boston and Miami is knocked out before they even knew what hit them.

We can sit here and say all sorts of hypothetical situations. A strong Miami team can run Golden State out of the gym by hitting 71% of their shots and holding the Warriors to 30% on any given night as well.

You keep insinuating the three of them are incapable of playing team ball and continue to not acknowledge that they won a gold medal together. What makes the three of them not capable?

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

We can sit here and say all sorts of hypothetical situations. A strong Miami team can run Golden State out of the gym by hitting 71% of their shots and holding the Warriors to 30% on any given night as well.

You keep insinuating the three of them are incapable of playing team ball and continue to not acknowledge that they won a gold medal together. What makes the three of them not capable?

That's a good point on Golden State, I should state both sides of the equation. My point was we could (and will) have many of these hypothetical situations where Miami gets run out of the gym by Golden State (or vice-versa), or Atlanta will just not let themselves lose two in a row at home when Miami happens to be that unfortunate victim. Parity works itself out and it keeps teams from winning 70+ in the modern era, so that's what I was saying there.

And I don't want to say those three can't play together. My point again was that chemistry accounts for something long-term (as well as the short term I'll admit they'll get in 82 games). But I'm not insinuating that the three CAN'T play together, I'm stating that MJ and Pippen, Shaq and Kobe, for any half dozen times top 10 players have gotten on the same team in history, very few won an immediate championship. Most take up to four years, and Boston was the one crazy example I can ever remember in the history of the game of getting great all-stars on one team and having them get enough chemistry to win a ring. I'm not saying they can't, I'm just saying odds are not in their favor.

 

[BGrantFan]

Wilt, Jerry West, and Elgin Baylor failed.

Shaq, Kobe, Karl Malone, and Gary Payton tanked

Over-stuffed, jam-packed 2000 era Blazers choked

Just sayin....

Garnett, Allen, and Pierce have been to 2 out of 3 Finals, and won one.

The Lakers with Malone failed in part because Malone was injured and didn't play well/much in the Finals. Plus, Malone and Payton were fucking OLD. The Mailman was a 40 year-old!!!

Wilt, Jerry , Elgin did win a title, it just happened to be the year that OLD MAN Elgin retired a few games into the season. He was 37 years old at the time.

LOL at your post.

 

[BGrantFan]

I think the Shaq/Kobe Lakers is a pretty good comparison. LeBron/Wade and Shaq/Kobe, with Bosh in the Glen Rice role.

Another one is the second three-peat Bulls. Jordan, Scottie and Rodman. Jordan was a little better than LeBron, Scottie was a little worse than Wade, and Rodman wasn't as good as Bosh.

On paper, it seems like LeBron plays the facilitator role that Pippen played, Wade plays the primary offensive weapon, and Bosh...well, there's probably the big problem with that comparison. Rodman's game was perfectly suited for doing everything but scoring. Bosh's isn't.

At some point I think they'll have to parlay one of these guys into better-suited role players. But I think they can make it work for a year.

From what I've read, James seems more than happy to be the athletic version of Magic Johnson I've always thought he is with teammates like Wade and Bosh to receive the ball. The Jordan comparisons have never made sense to me with James.

I can see James being a 19/9/9 player, with Wade averaging close to 30 and Bosh getting 24 a night.

 

[axs88]

From what I've read, James seems more than happy to be the athletic version of Magic Johnson I've always thought he is with teammates like Wade and Bosh to receive the ball. The Jordan comparisons have never made sense to me with James.

I can see James being a 19/9/9 player, with Wade averaging close to 30 and Bosh getting 24 a night.

I agree with James being happy as a more athletic Magic, but I think he's such a matchup nightmare for the whole league that there's no way he will (or should) score less than Bosh. I see it shaking out more like this:
James: 25/8/8
Wade: 25/5/5
Bosh: 20/10

 

[HailBlazers]

Miami is going to fucking roll through the regular season, the only team that will give them trouble is maybe Orlando or the Lakers in the playoffs.

No Doubt, it could be the same story all over again for LBJ. Roll through the regular season and get stopped short in the playoffs due to lack of depth/or chemistry of the team.

 

[Natebishop3]

No Doubt, it could be the same story all over again for LBJ. Roll through the regular season and get stopped short in the playoffs due to lack of depth/or chemistry of the team.

Their depth isn't bad. Really the biggest hole is point guard, but if LBJ plays point forward, they will probably be okay. I could see a lineup of Wade, LeBron, Miller, Bosh, Haslem. Tell me that isn't a scary team.

 

[crandc]

Actually when Clyde first arrived in Houston it did disrupt the team, at first. A lot of Rockets players publicly said they did not like the trade. Houston finished #6 seed. But they sure pulled it together in the playoffs.

IMO, like everyone else nothing but my opinion to go on, I think it will work, this year. They will all be on good behavior, they will get every possible and impossible call. But I really don't see Miami winning a string of 5 or 6 titles. IMHO, the egos will break out after the first championship.

 

[THE HCP]

The crazy thing is, even if they don't gel and win it all next year, they aren't going anywhere! They are only gonna get better playing together. That's scary!

 

[handiman]

What everyone seems to forget about in the "chemistry" debate is that these guys chose to play together. And in their primes, no less. I doubt that has ever happened before (I certainly can't think of any examples), so throw all historical counter-examples out the window. There is nothing to compare this Miami team to that is of any relevance.

 

[Natebishop3]

What everyone seems to forget about in the "chemistry" debate is that these guys chose to play together. And in their primes, no less. I doubt that has ever happened before (I certainly can't think of any examples), so throw all historical counter-examples out the window. There is nothing to compare this Miami team to that is of any relevance.

Good point. Repped.

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

I think this Miami team will be unstoppable! Sorry, but 'Bron and Wade are so heads and above better then everybody else it's silly! Channing Frye told me once that playing against LeBron is like playing against a high school kid when your in 5th grade! These guys are going to just toy with other squads. Sorry, but I am one the believes an over abundance of talent can make up for a lack of chemistry! New School way of thinkin' I guess!

Admittedly, this might have some holes because I haven't really thought it all the way through, but I also question this theory of having THREE REALLY GREAT players. Why does it matter if you have three of the best players in the league instead of one? I think we all universally agree that having two future hall-of-famers (like Magic/Kareem, MJ/Pippen, Shaq/Kobe, etc.) provides more than the teams that simply have one of these guys. So you can't argue the fact that two is better than one. But how much value is there if you have three LeBron or even five LeBrons on a team for that matter?

What I'm getting at is the fact that you only have one ball and one guy actually creating a scoring opportunity. I think it's safe to say that Rudy without the ball is just about as effective as LeBron without the ball. Rudy runs around and creates defenders to move off their man and creates many alley-oop opportunities from losing his defender, etc. So movement without the ball isn't a "top 5" skill, it's something a lot of guys do. How much difference will it matter to have LeBron and Bosh on the floor when Wade is simply walking the ball up the court? How much value is added for Wade and LeBron watching from the wings when the Chalmers is simply passing the ball into Bosh at the post and he's backing a guy down? At the end of the day, each possession is just one of these players getting the ball and creating their shot, much like Roy, or Kobe, or CP3 or some other player would be doing for their team. The other 4 guys are basically bystanders just watching - whether their names are Adam Morrison or LeBron James.

Then that is only half of the time on the clock. Let's not foget the other side of the ball in defense. You have to ask yourself how these great scorers who are known for having passable defense really make much of a difference over teams that have defensive specialist. Miami even with their three greats is still going to give up at least their 90 ppg. None of these guys are top 10 in the league because they're defensive stoppers. It's for their offensive prowess. So it begs the question how much will it really impact this team. Oh, they'll be 60-win good as we've all mentioned, but I'm not convinced yet that even having five Kobes or Lebrons make much of a difference than having two really good all-stars to take the pressure off each other, as this league has has seen a number of times.

 

[THE HCP]

I think having 3 superstars creates problems by having to double team them. Each one of the big 3 will demand a double and I believe this will help the NON stars on the squad like Mike Miller. Do you know how many open 3's he's gonna get?!?! Miami did an amazing job filling out that roster! After THE DECISION, I thought there was no way they could land quality role players, but they proved me wrong.

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

I think having 3 superstars creates problems by having to double team them. Each one of the big 3 will demand a double and I believe this will help the NON stars on the squad like Mike Miller. Do you know how many open 3's he's gonna get?!?! Miami did an amazing job filling out that roster! After THE DECISION, I thought there was no way they could land quality role players, but they proved me wrong.

I agree on the role players. I didn't think they'd even have enough money to fill the roster, but they managed. But you're right that it will allow guys to be more open than they would have been given another situation. You can still only score so many ways. I don't think anyone in today's modern era can be efficient enough to score 120ppg, even if you have 5 LeBron on your team creating mismatches and shooting at some type of .600 rate. So that's where I'm going with that. For the limited number of possession you have in a game, they will only have one ball to put into one of their hands at any given moment and can only score so often (just like no batter hits .500).

As to double-teams, you can still only double-team the one star with the ball. I don't think you'll ever see a double-team off the ball. So Wade getting the ball at the top of the key might draw a double-team, but how is that different than Kobe getting the ball at the top of the key? How is that not making Pau get an easier opportunity just like it will Bosh or one of Miami's role players. How is Bosh getting the ball in the post and drawing a double-team and kicking it out to Wade any different than KG drawing one and dumping it out to Pierce or Ray Allen? I'd bet on a Ray Allen taking an open three before I'd bet on Wade out there taking an open shot.

 

[BGrantFan]

I'd bet on a Ray Allen taking an open three before I'd bet on Wade out there taking an open shot.

True, but I'd also bet on Wade getting the ball on the open side of the court and attacking the rim over Allen shooting a contested shot. At least in terms of efficiency, since Rondo is never doubled at the top of the key, and neither is Pierce.

 

[THE HCP]

I do believe Nate's style of offense will be the most effective against Miami. Limit their possessions and you might have a chance!

 

[MickZagger]

I don't think this Miami thing will work. There's only one basketball and everybody needs to put their ego's aside. I just don't think outside the top 3 they're a very well tounded team either. Mike Millers alright, everybody else is meh though.

 

[THE HCP]

I don't think this Miami thing will work. There's only one basketball and everybody needs to put their ego's aside. I just don't think outside the top 3 they're a very well tounded team either. Mike Millers alright, everybody else is meh though.

But Zags, what do you need besides those guys? Guys to set picks and rebound! They got that. They also have Miller/Jones/House to camp in the corners and bomb away!

 

[MickZagger]

But Zags, what do you need besides those guys? Guys to set picks and rebound! They got that. They also have Miller/Jones/House to camp in the corners and bomb away!

One of those guys could get injured then bam, your basically banking on a 2 horse team. Say Bosh gets hurt, who are they relying on down low? Joel Anthony? Juwan Howard? Big Z, but he's a perimeter player.

Lebron and Wade are most effective with the ball in their hands and creating things. I don't think either will flourish playing off the ball.

If I were Miami I would have rather signed Bosh, then use the money they used on Lebron to get 2-3 really solid but not spectacular players.

I just don't think its going to work.

 

[Minstrel]

There is some redundancy and each added superstar has decreased marginal value due to the limited number of shots. You can fully leverage one superstar, fairly close to fully leverage a second superstar and you probably won't come very close to fully leveraging a third superstar. I'd guess that a fourth and fifth superstar would really not bring anything near superstar or even star value.

Thus, I don't think they'll be a legendarily unstoppable force. I do think they'll be the best team in basketball, because they'll have the two superstar set-up and Bosh, even if not maximized, will still add more firepower, making them that much harder to defend. They aren't perfectly complimentary...there's no force inside and there isn't a ton of defensive presence. But good coaching should still yield a title favourite. They just have weaknesses that can be attacked and will let them down from time to time. So I think they'll be between 60-70 wins and it'll take a pretty amazing series from another great team to knock them out in the playoffs.

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

There is some redundancy and each added superstar has decreased marginal value due to the limited number of shots. You can fully leverage one superstar, fairly close to fully leverage a second superstar and you probably won't come very close to fully leveraging a third superstar. I'd guess that a fourth and fifth superstar would really not bring anything near superstar or even star value.

Thus, I don't think they'll be a legendarily unstoppable force. I do think they'll be the best team in basketball, because they'll have the two superstar set-up and Bosh, even if not maximized, will still add more firepower, making them that much harder to defend. They aren't perfectly complimentary...there's no force inside and there isn't a ton of defensive presence. But good coaching should still yield a title favourite. They just have weaknesses that can be attacked and will let them down from time to time. So I think they'll be between 60-70 wins and it'll take a pretty amazing series from another great team to knock them out in the playoffs.

Isn't that what I just said? LOL. Well Put!

 

[jlprk]

To be a great team, it would sure help to have a great coach.

 

[Minstrel]

Isn't that what I just said?

Was it? if so, we agree. I didn't read every post in the thread, I was largely responding to the idea that they aren't clear favourites because they will approximate the chemistry and redundancy of failed Olympic teams. I don't think that's going to be the case. But they certainly are unlikely to be three times as good as your typical one-star team.

 

[KingSpeed]

I hope the Heat fail but unlike the 2008-10 Celtics who also have three superstars and won a championship, the Heat have LOTS of time. They can afford to fail this season. They're young. And, depending upon the new CBA, they will be able to add a good quality basketball player each year with the MLE. I hope they fail, though.