The myth of Lillard Time

[illmatic99]

This idea of isolating Dame up top to finish games is getting increasingly annoying. His stats indicate that his high USG in late game situations is not warranted. His shot late last night was another of many attempts that Terry gives Dame where Lillard has come up incredibly empty.

Here are the numbers.

In situations when we are up or down 3, with less than a minute left in the 4th or OT, here are Dame's numbers in his career (both regular season and playoffs).

Year 1: 6/17 -- 35% -- Our best was Aldridge at 10/21, Wes was 6/10
Year 2: 12/28 -- 43% -- he was BY FAR our best this year. Aldridge was 5/20
Year 3: 6/21 -- 29% -- Next closest guy with attempts was Aldridge. He had 8 and hit 4 all season.
Year 4: 6/17-- 35%-- 0/7 on threes, and counting. CJ is 4/10 overall.

So that's 30/83 in 4 seasons, or 36% FG with a healthy # of those attempts coming from 3. Enough sample size to indicate that Dame's clutch gene is more of a myth than reality. As a comparison, here are the best players in this situation this season: http://bkref.com/tiny/X8wYd

For a guy who seemingly believes in %'s and efficiency stats so much, Terry does very little to actually run a play in crunch time. Hell, even a little off-ball movement to move the defense around would do wonders. Instead, we get an iso again and again and 4 guys standing around. This would be OK if Dame actually came through nearly enough times to warrant this privilege.

Here are BRoy's numbers in that same situation:
Year 1: 10/22
Year 2: 7/23 -- Outlaw was 8/9 that season!
Year 3: 13/23
Year 4: 8/18
Year 5: 6/12

( I hope this thread comes up a few weeks/months from now and blows up in my face after Dame hits consecutive buzzer beaters).

(Sidebar 2: I really wish I could find points per possession stats in these situations. This doesn't take into account FTs and points generated overall, just FG%)

 

[blue32]

I miss BRoy...

 

[blazedanugz]

yeah why you gotta throw in Roy's stats.....(a single tear rolls down my cheek)

 

[illmatic99]

yeah why you gotta throw in Roy's stats.....(a single tear rolls down my cheek)

Just a comparison. Was looking through our team's recent history. Roy's #s really stand out.

 

[cardova08]

Wow, 0/7 from 3? I think if Dirk would have stayed in the game, they would have tried to switch to get Dirk on Dame and we would have most likely seen a better shot. I don't have a problem with letting your best player take a shot at the end of the game, almost every team in the NBA does the exact same thing. My problem is that the shot Dame took is such a low percentage shot in the first place, combined with the numbers posted above and it was a pretty disappointing way to end the game.
I think Dame is still in the process of learning how to become a leader. Remember all of those years when Lebron wasn't considered a clutch player? Then eventually he improved his game enough where he is a great 4th quarter player. I don't think that the clutch gene is something that you either have or you don't so I'm not worried that he won't improve late in games.

 

[illmatic99]

http://www.csnnw.com/blazers/not-his-watch-damian-lillard-says-he-wont-allow-blazers-miss-playoffs

Tied with 13 seconds left, Lillard hoisted a straight-on three pointer that missed, a gift to Dallas in that he made only his man guard him. It was the same scenario in December against the Mavericks, when a final play with six seconds left again resulted in Lillard taking a long three pointer that put zero pressure on the defense.

“That’s a shot I’m really comfortable making,’’ Lillard said.

Coach Terry Stotts in both instances defended his play call, or lack thereof, saying it has become NBA norm to put the ball in your best player’s hands and let them create. While more Blazers fans would probably rather see an actual play, with Lillard attacking the rim to enhance the opportunity -- to get fouled, get a closer shot, or find an open teammate -- it is clear the team’s trust and belief in Lillard will forever trump logic.

Think with your brain, Terry. Not your heart.

 

[Natebishop3]

I think part of the problem is that we just don't have very many threats on the floor and the other team KNOWS he's going to be the guy to put up shots at the end. He can't get his own shot in the same way that Roy could. BRoy could just post up or rise above his defender. Dame has to create separation to get his shot off, which isn't always easy.

 

[Tunchi]

I agree with this thread. Good job

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

This is like when people pulled up the stats "oh yeah, Kobe isn't clutch".

Most prime time franchise players probably aren't because they are volume shooters if the game is close. Won't be too worried about this, overall its usually a net positive.

 

[ChadWick]

I'm so sick of it.

I love Lillard, but man anytime I sit and think about it. I just miss the fuck out of B Roy. One of favorite players to watch ever.

*tears stream down face* lol

 

[Natebishop3]

 

[Natebishop3]

Seriously though.... this fanbase sometimes....

 

[KingSpeed]

Why don't people understand this? It is basic strategy to make sure you shoot at the buzzer in that situation. Win or OT. So Lillard runs down clock and shoots at the buzzer. This is better than running a play and scoring and/or missing with time left on the clock, giving the other team a chance to win in regulation. Stotts is making the right call here. Has nothing to do with 'Dame Time" (hitting 5 threes in a row vs OKC) and everything to do with good clock management. Learn the game, then post.

 

[KingSpeed]

I think part of the problem is that we just don't have very many threats on the floor and the other team KNOWS he's going to be the guy to put up shots at the end. He can't get his own shot in the same way that Roy could. BRoy could just post up or rise above his defender. Dame has to create separation to get his shot off, which isn't always easy.

CJ hit the game tying shot vs Washington. Dame isn't the only option. CJ also won the game for us in Memphis this season. CJ Time is a thing.

 

[KingSpeed]

Also Roy never won a playoff series. Yes he was hurt at times but he was healthy in 2009, he had HCA (the only time since 2000) and a healthy LMA and Oden.

 

[Draco]

This idea of isolating Dame up top to finish games is getting increasingly annoying. His stats indicate that his high USG in late game situations is not warranted. His shot late last night was another of many attempts that Terry gives Dame where Lillard has come up incredibly empty.

Here are the numbers.

In situations when we are up or down 3, with less than a minute left in the 4th or OT, here are Dame's numbers in his career (both regular season and playoffs).

Year 1: 6/17 -- 35% -- Our best was Aldridge at 10/21, Wes was 6/10
Year 2: 12/28 -- 43% -- he was BY FAR our best this year. Aldridge was 5/20
Year 3: 6/21 -- 29% -- Next closest guy with attempts was Aldridge. He had 8 and hit 4 all season.
Year 4: 6/17-- 35%-- 0/7 on threes, and counting. CJ is 4/10 overall.

So that's 30/83 in 4 seasons, or 36% FG with a healthy # of those attempts coming from 3. Enough sample size to indicate that Dame's clutch gene is more of a myth than reality. As a comparison, here are the best players in this situation this season: http://bkref.com/tiny/X8wYd

For a guy who seemingly believes in %'s and efficiency stats so much, Terry does very little to actually run a play in crunch time. Hell, even a little off-ball movement to move the defense around would do wonders. Instead, we get an iso again and again and 4 guys standing around. This would be OK if Dame actually came through nearly enough times to warrant this privilege.

Here are BRoy's numbers in that same situation:
Year 1: 10/22
Year 2: 7/23 -- Outlaw was 8/9 that season!
Year 3: 13/23
Year 4: 8/18
Year 5: 6/12

( I hope this thread comes up a few weeks/months from now and blows up in my face after Dame hits consecutive buzzer beaters).

(Sidebar 2: I really wish I could find points per possession stats in these situations. This doesn't take into account FTs and points generated overall, just FG%)

Great job!

Taking into account FTs would be hard because intentional fouls should be excluded. There also should be a big difference with clutch plays inside of 24 seconds and the game tied. At that point the concern is about having the final shot and less about the quality of the shot. It's hard to quantify all those different situations.

 

[Draco]

Why don't people understand this? It is basic strategy to make sure you shoot at the buzzer in that situation. Win or OT. So Lillard runs down clock and shoots at the buzzer. This is better than running a play and scoring and/or missing with time left on the clock, giving the other team a chance to win in regulation. Stotts is making the right call here. Has nothing to do with 'Dame Time" (hitting 5 threes in a row vs OKC) and everything to do with good clock management. Learn the game, then post.

Obviously the team should try to get the last shot off in a tie game. But Dame can create his own shot from all over the court; a fading 3 pointer well behind the line isn't the best option at the end. He could've easily started driving and done a jab step just behind the free throw line and got a better midrange look. Usually you don't want to shoot long 2's because stand a step back and you get an extra point. At the end of a tie game that extra point is worthless.

In the heat of the moment Dame didn't make the best decision. Sometimes that happens. I expect him to learn from it. Its something he rightly can be criticized for. It doesn't make him a bad player or us bad fans it's just one play that didn't work out well.

 

[kjironman1]

That's It!
Trade Damian Lillard!
I just can't take it any more!

 

[SlyPokerDog]

He's the hero Portland deserves, but not the one we need right now.

 

[MarAzul]

This idea of isolating Dame up top to finish games is getting increasingly annoying. His stats indicate that his high USG in late game situations is not warranted. His shot late last night was another of many attempts that Terry gives Dame where Lillard has come up incredibly empty.

Here are the numbers.

In situations when we are up or down 3, with less than a minute left in the 4th or OT, here are Dame's numbers in his career (both regular season and playoffs).

Year 1: 6/17 -- 35% -- Our best was Aldridge at 10/21, Wes was 6/10
Year 2: 12/28 -- 43% -- he was BY FAR our best this year. Aldridge was 5/20
Year 3: 6/21 -- 29% -- Next closest guy with attempts was Aldridge. He had 8 and hit 4 all season.
Year 4: 6/17-- 35%-- 0/7 on threes, and counting. CJ is 4/10 overall.

So that's 30/83 in 4 seasons, or 36% FG with a healthy # of those attempts coming from 3. Enough sample size to indicate that Dame's clutch gene is more of a myth than reality. As a comparison, here are the best players in this situation this season: http://bkref.com/tiny/X8wYd

For a guy who seemingly believes in %'s and efficiency stats so much, Terry does very little to actually run a play in crunch time. Hell, even a little off-ball movement to move the defense around would do wonders. Instead, we get an iso again and again and 4 guys standing around. This would be OK if Dame actually came through nearly enough times to warrant this privilege.

Here are BRoy's numbers in that same situation:
Year 1: 10/22
Year 2: 7/23 -- Outlaw was 8/9 that season!
Year 3: 13/23
Year 4: 8/18
Year 5: 6/12

( I hope this thread comes up a few weeks/months from now and blows up in my face after Dame hits consecutive buzzer beaters).

(Sidebar 2: I really wish I could find points per possession stats in these situations. This doesn't take into account FTs and points generated overall, just FG%)

Do you think Damian plays the game as Stotts would have it? Or his he calling the shots because of his privileged position?

 

[Trackjack]

A need of a 3rd scorer is a real need this off season. Will dame still take the last shot properly.

 

[KingSpeed]

A need of a 3rd scorer is a real need this off season. Will dame still take the last shot properly.

We don't need more scoring. That's not our problem. We have plenty of people who can score. We scored 110 in San Antonio. The problem is defense and that is what needs to be addressed.

 

[jlprk]

First you say it's obvious that Lillard should hog the shots at the end of the game. Then you say he shouldn't.

Why don't people understand this? It is basic strategy to make sure you shoot at the buzzer in that situation. Win or OT. So Lillard runs down clock and shoots at the buzzer. This is better than running a play and scoring and/or missing with time left on the clock, giving the other team a chance to win in regulation. Stotts is making the right call here. Has nothing to do with 'Dame Time" (hitting 5 threes in a row vs OKC) and everything to do with good clock management. Learn the game, then post.

We don't need more scoring. That's not our problem. We have plenty of people who can score. We scored 110 in San Antonio. The problem is defense and that is what needs to be addressed.

 

[H.C.]

You should change the thread name. to the Mythic of 1-4 iso late in games. or Hero ball.
But it is also team strat. If Stotts said in the huddle.
"Okay guys heres the play, 1-4 iso and Lillard is going to get the look. Lillard make sure you shoot to give the team no time left."
Then it's kind of on Stotts no matter what happens. He put Lillard in the 1-4 iso. Could Lillard get a better shot than a fadeaway 28ft three? Certainly, but don't blame Lillard for coaching decisions to 1-4 iso the best player on the team.

Over watching the Blazers I remember more late game makes by Lillard that were play designs than putting him in a 1-4 iso situation.

 

[Cippy91]

I think people look into this to much. Numbers don't lie, I get that. Dame time more originated through his scoring sprees in the 4th quarter as well as buzzer beaters he has had the last two years. Obviously game six is one. I remember he had back to back away at Detroit than Cleveland. Okc he had one last year I believe. It just became something fun people said. Some of dames best quarters I have seen have come in the 3rd or 4th. Now obviously it doesn't happen every time but this might be taken a little to literal

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Yeah when you define Lillard Time as "shots to end a game", you're intentionally not counting the work he does earlier in the quarter. This seems like a false argument.

 

[BBert]

Remember that TV commercial where Michael Jordan talked about how many game winners he MISSED.

Yeah.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Right. But Dame is a chucker and will not learn anymore. Wont get any better because you know. He has a sorry ass work ethic... zero pride and his discipline is for shit. Yep. What you see now is what we will always have... because we just want to see what happened yesterday and too soon forget the past...

I just hope him and some others don't read this board because the way we turn on players and just bitch without discussing the big picture kinda makes me sick...

IF I was him and I read all this flip flopping crap, id be like... Fuck Portland... Best fans? HA!!!!

Crazy fans might be more like it.




I think there is one thing us fans seem to forget about team sports. You have your guys back... through thick and thin. You have thier back.
However, we turn your back on him/them when they don't do well/ make a mistake. You support through positive reinforcement and proper reprimanding with a silver lining....

 

[Natebishop3]

Personally I feel that it's because this is a new role for Dame this season, and he is still learning when to take over a game. To me, it has been obvious that he presses when the team is losing in the 4th. He tries to do too much. He thinks he has to carry the entire load on his shoulders. That's just youth and a guy who is learning how to be the leader of a team. He's still only 25 years old, which is pretty young in the grand scheme of things. If he was still having this problem at 28, I would maybe be concerned, but he has been carrying this team since the All-Star break. I'm not going to cherry pick some stats because I know for a fact that this team wouldn't be where it is right now without him.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Personally I feel that it's because this is a new role for Dame this season, and he is still learning when to take over a game. To me, it has been obvious that he presses when the team is losing in the 4th. He tries to do too much. He thinks he has to carry the entire load on his shoulders. That's just youth and a guy who is learning how to be the leader of a team. He's still only 25 years old, which is pretty young in the grand scheme of things. If he was still having this problem at 28, I would maybe be concerned, but he has been carrying this team since the All-Star break. I'm not going to cherry pick some stats because I know for a fact that this team wouldn't be where it is right now without him.

Exactly!!!1... Ten likes for you sir!!!


ON the side.. If someone posts that they want to like 10 times, the mods should be able to go into that persons account and add those 9 other likes...

Except when that person is a mod!!!


Someone say I deserve a million likes for this... PLEASE?