The Narrative that Trent is a Good Defender is False

[Natebishop3]

Though he was a really good point guard?

He isn't a dynamic scorer. They don't have a dynamic scorer in their backcourt.

 

[wizenheimer]

I wasn't saying the stats were underestimating Covington or making a point in relation to Aminu. I was saying that while 35% three-point shooting isn't hugely efficient itself, it's the shooting percentage of someone defenses don't want to leave open because someone who shoots 35% on all shots is likely to hit 40% or better if left alone.



You were disputing that Covington can "keep defenses honest," which to me means that the player's defender can't leave them to zone up or drift into a soft double-team elsewhere on the court. I think Covington definitely merits enough defensive attention that his defender isn't generally going to leave him--when he's shooting at his career norms, anyway.



I think 35% is sufficient threat for the reason I mentioned above--35% overall means a very efficient three-point shooter if left open. For spacing, you need guys who can't be left. I think that Covington actually needs to get back to being that guy, as his slump is killing the team. Now, if somehow Covington has simply lost the ability to shoot permanently, then he's a pure liability.

again...did Aminu keep defenses "honest"? and would he have kept defenses honest if the other forward was a career 16% three-shooter on about 1 attempt every 7 or 8 games?

maybe we should define honest defense. To me it means that a defense doesn't hedge off any opposing player. And I'm not saying that defenses won't pay attention to RoCo, rather that RoCo is not enough of a threat to take pressure off Dame when he's on the floor with Simmons. A healthy Klay Thompson they'd be honest with; same for guys like Joe Harris or Joe Ingles or Davis Bertrans or Paul George or Jayson Tatum or Duncan Robinson. Those guys would stress a defense. Not RoCo IMO, and an added issue is RoCo isn't that good at putting the ball on the floor in dribble-drive situations and shoot-pass options

what Portland needs isn't more open shots for RoCo...they need more open shots for Dame, and I can't see RoCo ever creating that kind of space. But then, CJ as hot as he was to start the season wasn't able to create more space for Dame. But maybe that's because the Blazers didn't have a 2nd great shooter at one of the forward positions

 

[Minstrel]

again...did Aminu keep defenses "honest"? and would he have kept defenses honest if the other forward was a career 16% three-shooter on about 1 attempt every 7 or 8 games?

Aminu is a worse three-point shooter. He's a career 33% three-point shooter and that's basically off a couple unusually strong years. Much of his career, he's been below a 30% three-point shooter. I think his rep is quite different than Covington's, despite being somewhat close in career percentage.

If your contention is that Covington doesn't stress a defense, I agree with that. But those types of shooters aren't that common. Covington was never valuable as a shooter who has the type of gravity to create for everyone else--he's valuable (at least prior to this season) as someone who's a good defender and shoots well enough to hold a defender out at the three-point line, creating space for other shot-creators. He defends and doesn't muck up spacing. Guys who can't shoot get ignored out at the three-point line, which creates congestion in the paint, preventing players like Lillard, Curry, Harden, etc, from being able to slash as effectively, whether to score or to pass.

That's what I meant by "keeping the defense honest" (and what I assumed Nate meant). Stressing the defense is a much higher standard, one that Covington doesn't meet. But guys who do meet that standard and play good defense are among the most valuable players in the league apart from superstar shot-creators.

 

[Hoopguru]

He isn't a dynamic scorer. They don't have a dynamic scorer in their backcourt.

They got Docs son in law...

 

[Natebishop3]

They got Docs son in law...

I imagine they'd pair them up. CJ would play point guard.

 

[wizenheimer]

Aminu is a worse three-point shooter. He's a career 33% three-point shooter and that's basically off a couple unusually strong years. Much of his career, he's been below a 30% three-point shooter. I think his rep is quite different than Covington's, despite being somewhat close in career percentage.

If your contention is that Covington doesn't stress a defense, I agree with that. But those types of shooters aren't that common. Covington was never valuable as a shooter who has the type of gravity to create for everyone else--he's valuable (at least prior to this season) as someone who's a good defender and shoots well enough to hold a defender out at the three-point line, creating space for other shot-creators. He defends and doesn't muck up spacing. Guys who can't shoot get ignored out at the three-point line, which creates congestion in the paint, preventing players like Lillard, Curry, Harden, etc, from being able to slash as effectively, whether to score or to pass.

That's what I meant by "keeping the defense honest" (and what I assumed Nate meant). Stressing the defense is a much higher standard, one that Covington doesn't meet. But guys who do meet that standard and play good defense are among the most valuable players in the league apart from superstar shot-creators.

I get that. It's a valid general argument but I was specifically talking about a Simmons/RoCo pairing in Portland. I think that would make RoCo's average 3 point shooting (assuming he ever gets back to that level) more of a problem

it's an academic argument anyway. The 76ers were extremely reluctant to trade Simmons for Harden. No way they'd trade Simmons for CJ. And if by some alignment of alternate realities they were willing, Olshey would turn it down anyway

 

[BonesJones]

as a stathead, I'mm make a couple of observations:

* one is that winshare numbers, other than winshares/48 is a cumulative number. The more total minutes played, the higher the winshare will be

* for a bench player, especially one averaging 25 minutes or less, DBPM and OBPM need the context of rotations. Otherwise there's too much noise. For instance, if Trent spends a lot of minute with Kanter at C instead of Nurkic, or Melo at PF instead of RoCo, he's going to have a lower DBPM

one defensive gauge I think is mostly valid (with some caveats) is comparing a player's individual defensive rating to that of the team. Last year, Portland had a D Rating of 114.8 while Trent was at 117. This year, the team had a D Rating of 114.4 (hard to believe this team is only 0.4 points better on defense than last year's disaster) while Trent is at a team worst 121. Now, while this can have a similar rotational skew as DBPM, those numbers are kind of hard to ignore and just credit to circumstance. And Last year, Trent was in the bottom half of the league among SG's in DRPM

I don't think Trent is a good defender. He's not as bad as his numbers tend to indicate either, but he's certainly got an undeserved reputation as a good defender. Maybe people are confusing intensity and effort with results.

I'd say this: he's solid. Not necessarily good. But he has all the tools to be extremely good, and the areas he struggles in are fixable for him. The areas he struggles in are also areas the rest of the team struggles in, and are a constant on this team. I have a feeling I'd you traded him to a place like Miami, he'd become a great defender.

 

[handiman]

Because like us, they're stagnant.

Great take, as usual. Philly has a new coach and front office, and is leading the East. Most teams would love to be that stagnant.

 

[handiman]

again...did Aminu keep defenses "honest"? and would he have kept defenses honest if the other forward was a career 16% three-shooter on about 1 attempt every 7 or 8 games?

Aminu absolutely did not keep defenses honest. He was generally dared to shoot, with defenses willing to give up an occasional hot game to him in exchange for all the clanks the rest of the time. If he was guarded tighter, he probably would have been well under 30%. Let him shoot and keep the ball out of the hands of better shooters. It's a very sound strategy.

That's where a direct comparison of stats fails.

 

[beast blazer]

Doesn't matter. Olshey will give him the max

 

[RoseCityRebel]

He sure can shoot though. So much confidence. If he can figure out defensive positioning with the same effort he gives now, but more channeled to a scheme, he’ll male good money. Reminds me of a potential Danny Young.

 

[GDiama]

This graph not very good

 

[Zach Collins Enthusiast]

Gary Trent is awful, passing is totally not a part of his game

 

[Pinwheel1]

Because like us, they're stagnant.

Simmons is only 24 though. I think it would be stupid to move him just because they are "stagnant".
He has a skill that most other players his size do not possess. Not saying he does not possess deficiencies, (especially at the end of games) but if I am Philly I keep him.....assuming he has a good attitude and is willing to work on his weaknesses.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I've come to the conclusion that Gary Trent is our Kyle Kuzma.

 

[Natebishop3]

Simmons is only 24 though. I think it would be stupid to move him just because they are "stagnant".
He has a skill that most other players his size do not possess. Not saying he does not possess deficiencies, (especially at the end of games) but if I am Philly I keep him.....assuming he has a good attitude and is willing to work on his weaknesses.

If I'm Philly, I think I would be trying to put together the right combo to win right now. Their main piece is Embiid and you just have no idea how long a center will be playing at their peak. Any number of injuries could derail his career. So the window could be really short or potentially long.

Really their goal should be to pair a dynamic scorer with Simmons and Embiid, the problem is that Harris isn't really that valuable. At least not to us. We need a PF that can defend. Or a small forward that can defend and shoot threes.

 

[Minstrel]

If I'm Philly, I think I would be trying to put together the right combo to win right now. Their main piece is Embiid and you just have no idea how long a center will be playing at their peak. Any number of injuries could derail his career. So the window could be really short or potentially long.

Really their goal should be to pair a dynamic scorer with Simmons and Embiid, the problem is that Harris isn't really that valuable. At least not to us. We need a PF that can defend. Or a small forward that can defend and shoot threes.

If we could get Harris (and maybe a pick, to account for CJ's recent performance jump) for CJ, I'd consider strongly playing Harris as a stretch power forward. He's 6'8'' and shoots decently from three--it'd be a small lineup, but with hopefully Nurkic to take the biggest opponent on defense, it could work well. Few teams play two really big players.

 

[Natebishop3]

If we could get Harris (and maybe a pick, to account for CJ's recent performance jump) for CJ, I'd consider strongly playing Harris as a stretch power forward. He's 6'8'' and shoots decently from three--it'd be a small lineup, but with hopefully Nurkic to take the biggest opponent on defense, it could work well. Few teams play two really big players.

Does Harris play defense?

 

[Minstrel]

Does Harris play defense?

I would say he plays average but versatile defense at his best, below average defense at times. His advanced stats suggest he's around average.

 

[Natebishop3]

I would say he plays average but versatile defense at his best, below average defense at times. His advanced stats suggest he's around average.

Done and done

 

[Minstrel]

Done and done

View attachment 37208

If the 76ers would do that, I'd do that. But I also consider Seth Curry a pretty major get. In that case, I don't think the 76ers would part with a first rounder, but hey...shoot for the moon!

Plus we get rid of Melo. Too good to be true.

 

[Natebishop3]

Plus we get rid of Melo. Too good to be true.

A boy can dream

 

[Pinwheel1]

A boy can dream

This is actually one of the few trade proposals I think is realistic.
I bet Melo would be OK going to Philly with CJ. Close to NY. I also think Philly would do it.

I personally would miss CJ's mid-range game. He is one of the best at it. (Certainly not a duplication of anyone else on the team for that skill set) But I do like getting a 41% 3 pt shooter at PF who can defend the perimeter

 

[Natebishop3]

This is actually one of the few trade proposals I think is realistic.
I bet Melo would be OK going to Philly with CJ. Close to NY. I also think Philly would do it.

I personally would miss CJ's mid-range game. He is one of the best at it. (Certainly not a duplication of anyone else on the team for that skill set) But I do like getting a 41% 3 pt shooter at PF who can defend the perimeter

Dame/Simons
Trent/Curry
RoCo/DJJ/Nas
Harris/RoCo
Kanter/???

 

[Minstrel]

Dame/Simons
Trent/Curry
RoCo/DJJ/Nas
Harris/RoCo
Kanter/???

You're cutting Nurk in this scenario? He wasn't in your trade proposal.

 

[Natebishop3]

You're cutting Nurk in this scenario? He wasn't in your trade proposal.

I didn't include Collins either. They're both out until.... who knows?

 

[Pinwheel1]

Dame/Simons
Trent/Curry
RoCo/DJJ/Nas
Harris/RoCo
Kanter/???

I am warming up to your Simmons possibility. Maybe if Morey thought Maxey was the future at PG and Thybulle could replace Simmons defense......I would include Little in that trade if needed.

 

[blazerkor]

Done and done

View attachment 37208

Wait can I sign a petition or something to make this happen?

 

[wizenheimer]

Philly, reportedly, wouldn't trade Simmons for Harden; hard to imagine CJ and spare parts would be enough

the problem I have with CJ for Harris is that Harris is not significantly better than CJ, but is quite a bit more expensive. Instead of paying a non-all-star level talent 33m/year, Portland would be paying 37M/year. Blazers would still be locked into the same inflexible box they currently are just to complete a lateral move

fit would be a little better though

 

[Natebishop3]

I am warming up to your Simmons possibility. Maybe if Morey thought Maxey was the future at PG and Thybulle could replace Simmons defense......I would include Little in that trade if needed.

I would love to add him. I think he's the missing piece. His defense and passing make him the perfect partner for Dame. Ultimately I would love to add Simmons and move Nurk for someone who isn't a walking injury report. I want to punt all of our injury prone players.