Game Thread The NBA 2020 Finals! Heat vs Lakers

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Who is officially the favorite? I don't know or understand how the Vegas stuff works.
 
THE HCP said:
Will the most talented team win regardless of what all the pinwheel blinded nut jobs say?
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The most talented team usually wins a 7 game series. But we all know injuries can have an impact except when we talk about Portland or Portland coaching.
 
THE HCP said:
Who is officially the favorite? I don't know or understand how the Vegas stuff works.
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The Lakers are huge favorites to win the series.

ODDS TO WIN 2020 NBA FINALS (11/12/20)
Los Angeles Lakers -450
Miami Heat +375

That means in order to win $100 dollars you need to bet $450 on the Lakers winning the series. Whereas to win $375 you only have to bet $100 on the Heat. Maybe an easier way to explain it is just telling you what you would win if you bet $100 dollars on each team. Like I said if you bet $100 on the Heat to win and they did you would win $375 but if you bet the same $100 dollars on the Lakers and they won you would win just $22.22. So very obviously the Vegas bookmakers are pretty damn sure the Lakers will win, they're begging people to bet on the Heat and making it a suckers bet to bet on the Lakers.
 
KSF-ERIC said:
Lakers -4.5 for Game 1
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Yeah that's just the point spread but when someone like @THE HCP asks who the favorite is, it's probably better to give them the money line because that reflects the odds of which team will win, instead of how much the favorite is supposed to win by. The money line on game one is a -185 for the Lakers and a +165 for the Heat. That makes the Lakers a big odds on favorite for tonight's game as far as Vegas is concerned. Obviously Vegas is confident the Lakers will win this game because they are trying to entice people to bet on the Heat by saying if you bet $100 on the Heat you'll win $165 while if you bet $100 on the Lakers you'll only win $54.05, that's a pretty clear endorsement of a Lakers win.
 
blazerkor said:
So very obviously the Vegas bookmakers are pretty damn sure the Lakers will win, they're begging people to bet on the Heat and making it a suckers bet to bet on the Lakers.
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I take issue with this line of reasoning. I believe it's more accurate to say that the bookmakers believe the public is pretty damn sure the Lakers will win, and feel they need the odds to be that badly lopsided in order for the wagers to come in at a level on each side such that they profit either way. To put it another way, for the bookmakers to be assured a profit regardless of the outcome, with the odds set where they are, they essentially need about 4 times as much money to be bet on the Lakers than on the Heat, and they're saying that that's going to happen, even with that much larger payout if the Heat win.

Long story short--Vegas says bettors are gonna LOVE the Lakers.
 
PtldPlatypus said:
I take issue with this line of reasoning. I believe it's more accurate to say that the bookmakers believe the public is pretty damn sure the Lakers will win, and feel they need the odds to be that badly lopsided in order for the wagers to come in at a level on each side such that they profit either way. To put it another way, for the bookmakers to be assured a profit regardless of the outcome, with the odds set where they are, they essentially need about 4 times as much money to be bet on the Lakers than on the Heat, and they're saying that that's going to happen, even with that much larger payout if the Heat win.

Long story short--Vegas says bettors are gonna LOVE the Lakers.
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I disagree, the entire art of bookmaking is playing the odds and the truth is the bookmakers set the odds that the Lakers are a 3 to 1 favorite over the Heat tonight and about an 18 to 1 favorite to win the series. Sportsbooks aren't pitting bettors against bettors. Make no mistake about it, it's the house against the bettors and the house is decidedly picking the Lakers tonight and overwhelmingly picking them to win the series. Those lines can move to hedge the bookmakers' bet as more money comes in on one side or the other but these are the risks the bookmakers are willing to take which is a clear statement of who they think will win.
 
blazerkor said:
Yeah that's just the point spread but when someone like @THE HCP asks who the favorite is, it's probably better to give them the money line because that reflects the odds of which team will win, instead of how much the favorite is supposed to win by. The money line on game one is a -185 for the Lakers and a +165 for the Heat. That makes the Lakers a big odds on favorite for tonight's game as far as Vegas is concerned. Obviously Vegas is confident the Lakers will win this game because they are trying to entice people to bet on the Heat by saying if you bet $100 on the Heat you'll win $165 while if you bet $100 on the Lakers you'll only win $54.05, that's a pretty clear endorsement of a Lakers win.
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Thank you sir
 
I'm really surprised "old LeBron" has been able to get to the finals.
 
THE HCP said:
I'm really surprised "old LeBron" has been able to get to the finals.
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Screen-Shot-2019-07-17-at-7.09.55-AM-e1563372822175-1280x720.jpg
 
Rastapopoulos said:
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I can't stand LeBron hate and don't get it at all, the guy is seriously the nicest all time great the league has ever seen, with the exception of Bill Russell (Tim Duncan doesn't count because having no personality doesn't equal being nice). That being said this post is hilarious... so funny.
 
blazerkor said:
I disagree, the entire art of bookmaking is playing the odds and the truth is the bookmakers set the odds that the Lakers are a 3 to 1 favorite over the Heat tonight and about an 18 to 1 favorite to win the series. Sportsbooks aren't pitting bettors against bettors. Make no mistake about it, it's the house against the bettors and the house is decidedly picking the Lakers tonight and overwhelmingly picking them to win the series. Those lines can move to hedge the bookmakers' bet as more money comes in on one side or the other but these are the risks the bookmakers are willing to take which is a clear statement of who they think will win.
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You're right that it's the house against the bettors--and the house's main concern is that the house pays out less than the bettors pay in. All they care about is making a profit. It would be unwise business to set the lines in any manner than that which will lead to a profit regardless of circumstance.

Bettors gamble; casinos eliminate their risk.
 
PtldPlatypus said:
You're right that it's the house against the bettors--and the house's main concern is that the house pays out less than the bettors pay in. All they care about is making a profit. It would be unwise business to set the lines in any manner than that which will lead to a profit regardless of circumstance.

Bettors gamble; casinos eliminate their risk.
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Agreed and they are fare more risk averse when it comes to paying out on the Lakers, therefore they obviously believe the Lakers are going to win. They are begging gamblers to bet on the Heat and pissing on people who want to bet on the Lakers. Which way does it seem the bookmakers want the bettors to bet? It really is that simple.
 
blazerkor said:
Which way does it seem the bookmakers want the bettors to bet? It really is that simple.
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If it really is that simple, why wouldn't they make the odds 100/1 against the Heat? Quite simply--because they would risk loss.

They put the line where they don't risk loss. It really is that simple.
 
PtldPlatypus said:
If it really is that simple, why wouldn't they make the odds 100/1 against the Heat? Quite simply--because they would risk loss.

They put the line where they don't risk loss. It really is that simple.
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If you were trying to get me you should have put the bold on the word "that" not "is" but besides that we can just agree to disagree. I see odds making as a clear monetized endorsement while you think there is a lot more to it than that. I think we're both in agreement that after the initial odds or line is set all of the changes after that are nothing more than gamesmanship. Also I think your argument is far more accurate when it comes to the spread and over/under than when we're talking about the odds and money line.

Edit: Actually I don't disagree with your assertion at all, not at all. For the sports books it's just about making money and mitigating losses, you are right. That being said, I am also right. Where they set the odds is an obvious indication of what they think the outcome will be.
 
blazerkor said:
If you were trying to get me you should have put the bold on the word "that" not "is"
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Yeah, I was debating which. If I were speaking, I would have emphasized both in different ways. I considered going italic on the "is", and then bold on the "that".

Lack of tone is and always will be the downside of online forums.

:cheers:
 
The Heat have so many shooters
 
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