The NBA’s Midseason Arms Race Is Upon Us (The Ringer)

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The trade he suggests is one I find hard not to do.

Two 2017 early 1st round picks plus Noel for CJ.

We would have FOUR 1st round picks, including our own and Cleveland's.

We would start Crabbe. Crabbe is no CJ on offense, but we actually played well in Dame's absence.
 
The trade he suggests is one I find hard not to do.

Two 2017 early 1st round picks plus Noel for CJ.

We would have FOUR 1st round picks, including our own and Cleveland's.

We would start Crabbe. Crabbe is no CJ on offense, but we actually played well in Dame's absence.
I think the Sac pick he mentions in the trade would be a 2019 Unprotected 1st round pick. Still 3 1st round picks this year.
 
It would be so tough to give up CJ, especially to a team like Philly were he could shoot all day. He would average 25-28ppg there and that would be tough to see on another team.
 
The trade he suggests is one I find hard not to do.

Two 2017 early 1st round picks plus Noel for CJ.

We would have FOUR 1st round picks, including our own and Cleveland's.

We would start Crabbe. Crabbe is no CJ on offense, but we actually played well in Dame's absence.
It was noel, their 2017, and Kings 2019. 3 picks this year
 
OK, 3 picks this year. It sure would be nice to get a top 3-5 kind of pick this year and again in 2019 when we're potentially contending to go deep in the playoffs.
 
If we had a pick in the 3-5 range, but no CJ, who would you take?
 
It would be so tough to give up CJ, especially to a team like Philly were he could shoot all day. He would average 25-28ppg there and that would be tough to see on another team.
He's already doing that here (25 ppg since the start of December). And yeah, it would suck to see him take it up a notch elsewhere.
 
Somebody should show Dame that video where every man he's guarding blows by for a layup. Damn, he looks atrocious.

Agreed, those videos were very damning!

That "damning" video is just a loop of the same three plays over and over and over and over again. I'm pretty sure you could make a similar video for every PG in the league that plays as many minutes as Damian Lillard.

I'm not saying Dame isn't a bad defender, just that cherry picking three plays out of an entire season is hardly damning evidence. Just ask HCP, it's easy to make a highlight video to make shit players look like superstars, or superstars look like shit - especially if that video is just looping on the same 3 plays.

BNM
 
yeah man, i mean im a rookie fetishist, but we would be lucky if one of those draft picks turns out to be as good as cj.
 
sixers might want to see if they have anything in simmons before cashing in on their draft picks anyways. if he isnt an all star they are gonna need them.
 
Makes zero logic on Portland's end to trade CJ for an injury prone(fully recovered or not) center and draft picks.
Well unless people indeed wish for Portland to become exactly like Phoenix.

Especially if you take into consideration Portland's contract situation.
 
If we had a pick in the 3-5 range, but no CJ, who would you take?

BPA if I had to. Much rather trade it for something we need. Top six picks are PG or SF, our positions of strength--arguably.

Or, use it to scrap the whole thing and pick the best PG defender available at that point and start over with PG, Harkless, Nerlens etc. Not my first choice, but you could start building with better defenders. Olshey and Stotts would be looking for new jobs.
 
The trade he suggests is one I find hard not to do.

Two 2017 early 1st round picks plus Noel for CJ.

We would have FOUR 1st round picks, including our own and Cleveland's.

We would start Crabbe. Crabbe is no CJ on offense, but we actually played well in Dame's absence.

Actually Crabbe did not play well in Dame's absence, C.J. did. Crabbe, as a starter, saw his PER dip back below the magical 10.0 barrier. Now that's he's been moved back to the bench, his natural role given is limitations, he's raised his PER to 10.9.

C.J., on the other hand, absolutely flourished in Dame's absence:

"In 11 games without Lillard, McCollum averages 28.4 points, 5.6 assists, and 4.9 rebounds, which are pretty rare numbers (via StatMuse)."

It's funny that the author is trying to make a case for trading C.J., but the stats he quotes actually make a strong case for keeping C.J. and trading Dame. Here's another:

"as bad as Lillard and McCollum are together on D, the Blazers are even worse on defense when Lillard is on the floor without McCollum"

So, C.J. thrives on offense without Dame and Dame without C.J. on defense is even worse than the two of them together (another reason why I think trading C.J. and starting Crabbe next to Lillard would be a disaster).

There are very few players we could get in a trade that would make me consider trading Damian Lillard, but.... as part of a larger package, I'd look into it. The author proposes:

"The Blazers send McCollum to the Sixers for Noel, the Sixers’ unprotected 2017 first, the Kings’ unprotected 2019 first, and multiple second-round picks."

If that's what McCollum is worth, Lillard should be worth even more, especially since PHI's biggest need is PG. Not sure how much more we could get from PHI, but maybe start getting 3rd or 4th teams involved. As you mentioned, that would give us 4 first round picks, including one that's likely to be in the top 3 and another in the top 10. Those picks (plus ours and CLE's) are very valuable assets in a deep draft - especially one that is top heavy in PGs and combo guards.

We could try to draft a bigger PG/SG who can defend to better pair with C.J., or we could move some of those assets on to a 3rd or 4th team to land us proven players. Maybe get ORL, IND or CHI involved and see if we can come up with the right combination of high draft picks and players to land a solid 2-way player like Serge Ibaka, Paul George or Jimmy Butler. I think Ibaka at the 4 would be a perfect fit next to Noel at the 5. Likewise, Butler at the 2 next to C.J. at the 1 would address our defensive weakness in the back court, without negatively impacting our scoring. Paul George would be a great fit next to anyone.

I'm not proposing any specific trades, I haven't given it that much thought, but if we get Noel and a couple more very high draft picks, while only giving up one player (either C.J. or Dame), we'd have a ton of assets to package in additional trades. With Crabbe playing like he did last night, he's only increasing his trade value. Plumlee and Harkless also have high value to the right teams. Those kind of combined assets gets us in the conversation for the kind of 2-way superstars you build a championship contender around.

I've never been a fan of tanking. Losing to lose is a loser attitude. However, I'm all for taking advantage of others' suckage and ineptitude. That's how we got both Brandon Roy and Damian Lillard.

In the very recent past, I've been opposed to breaking up the Dame/C.J. Dynamic Duo, but that's before I started hearing things about multiple unprotected high lottery picks and superstars being available. Those kind of assets are what we could use to retool this team without deliberately losing and hoping for a kind bounce from the ping pong balls. Add a young rim protector like Nerlens Noel and a 2-way superstar like Butler, George or Ibaka AND still have a couple draft picks left over and now it becomes ease to make minor tweaks to add role players and strengthen your bench.

I started a thread a couple weeks ago that I thought Noel + Ibaka + Bogut would be a great front court rotation. In the article the author mentions Bogut is available cheap. He wouldn't have to start here, but would be a great back up center to come in, grab some boards, shut down the paint and set some killer (moving) screens.

If we did trade Dame and moved C.J. to starting PG, I'd even make a play for Ricky Rubio, another player who is supposedly available on the cheap. I've been a huge critic of Rubio ever since MIN drafted him. The problem is, as a starting PG, he's less than useless. His atrocious shooting more than negates his passing and defense. Because of his reluctance to even take a shot combined with his inability to actually make one, means you absolutely cannot have him on the court with the game on the line. That said, he wouldn't be as he would be coming off the bench backing up C.J. He'd be great running with the second unit, and you could even run him in for defensive possessions late in the game.

Anyway, those are just a few ideas, but the goal should be to get Noel for as little as possible (Crabbe + pick). If we have to give up more to get him (C.J. or Dame), get as much as possible from PHI in return and try to flip some of those assets for an established 2-way player, then fill out the bench with proven role players and remaining draft picks.

BNM
 
BPA if I had to. Much rather trade it for something we need. Top six picks are PG or SF, our positions of strength--arguably.

Or, use it to scrap the whole thing and pick the best PG defender available at that point and start over with PG, Harkless, Nerlens etc. Not my first choice, but you could start building with better defenders. Olshey and Stotts would be looking for new jobs.
Jackson can be a SG.
 
Did anyone see the look on CJ's face when he and Dame were sitting on the bench in favor of a more defensive team at the end of the game and the OT? I don't know if this is going to be a new trend in crunch time or Stotts was just trying something new.
 
Did anyone see the look on CJ's face when he and Dame were sitting on the bench in favor of a more defensive team at the end of the game and the OT? I don't know if this is going to be a new trend in crunch time or Stotts was just trying something new.

It was the right move on Stotts part. Neither of them can play 'D'.
 
Actually Crabbe did not play well in Dame's absence, C.J. did. Crabbe, as a starter, saw his PER dip back below the magical 10.0 barrier. Now that's he's been moved back to the bench, his natural role given is limitations, he's raised his PER to 10.9.

BNM

Another straw man.

I didn't say Crabbe played well or better.

I said the TEAM did.

But whatever.
 
It also sends a clear message to everyone on the team. Play D or have a seat, doesn't matter who you are or how much you make.

BNM
As a Dame homer at first I thought, "What the hell ..." But then I quickly realized it was the right move. I was just initially shocked to see it. I hope they also realize it was the right move and if they don't unfortunately that might say a lot.
 
It also sends a clear message to everyone on the team. Play D or have a seat, doesn't matter who you are or how much you make.

BNM

IDK for as much as Crabbe had a career night scoring.
He seemed to me to get burnt by Jackson over and over again last night. Especially in the 4th.
Admittedly I only watched the last 2 minutes of the forth, and two OT's closely.
Imo if Stotts wanted to send a message, it would have been putting Turner or Harkless in for Crabbe before he went to the anyone under 6"6 sit the ef down.
Even Lillard stayed in front of Jackson better than Crabbe did late in the game. Jackson just got away with an obvious push off to get the jumper off on Lillard.
 
With all this talk of multiple high draft picks, one thing I want to point out - you absolutely cannot depend on any player you draft, even if you have the first pick in the 2017 draft, to help you win more games in the next three years.

That sounds harsh, and there are exceptions, but as a rule, it takes young players, even the most talented ones, that log to adjust to the NBA game and provide significantly improved team performance. There is no Lebron James (14 years ago) or Tim Duncan (20 years ago) in the 2017 draft.

Everyone drools over MIN's talent. With Wiggins and Townes, they had two consecutive N0. 1 overall picks than netted them two consecutive ROYs. That looks great, until you look at their won:loss record. The year before they got Wiggins, their record was 40-42. They swapped Kevin Love for Andrew Wiggins, Wiggins wins ROY and their record plummets to 16-66. That gets them the No. 1 pick, they draft Townes, he wins ROY and they improve to 29-53. Wiggins is now in his third year and Townes in his second and they are on pace to win 30 games and go back to the lottery for the 14th year in a row.

You can't even blame the usual "incompetent management" in this case, they got the two best players in those drafts and are STILL losing.

You could say the same for CLE in the non-LeBron years. LeBron was gone for 4 years, CLE had 6 top 4 draft picks in those 4 years, including 3 No. 1 overall picks, and if LeBron wouldn't have returned, they would STILL be in the lottery.

Honestly, I'm not even going to look (that's kind of the point), but I can't think of a single player drafted in the last three years that has had a significant positive impact on his team's won:loss record, let alone actually led them to the playoffs. The only one that comes to mind is Porzingis, but even that is dubious, at best. The Knicks added him, brought in a shit ton of vets to surround their superstar, and they are still irrelevant and headed back to the lottery, yet again.

So, don't get too excited about landing the franchise savior with one of those high picks. You might get lucky, like we did with Dame, but even then, we only won five more games Dame's rookie year than the year before and were right back in the lottery. Those high draft picks have value, they are GREAT assets, but all this talk about who we can draft to take the place of Dame or C.J. is ridiculous. If that's the plan, don't expect to be back in the playoffs anytime soon.

Now, if we want to actually improve, while Dame or C.J. (whichever we keep) are still in their prime, those draft picks can land the kind of proven talent that immediately turns a team around. That's the real reason to get excited about those draft picks. Sure, if we have more than one high draft pick, trade one and use the other to take a young player you can bring off the bench initially, who may someday be as good as Dame or C.J. Just don't expect them to be that good (if ever) until at least the 2019-20 season.

BNM
 
IDK for as much as Crabbe had a career night scoring.
He seemed to me to get burnt by Jackson over and over again last night. Especially in the 4th.
Admittedly I only watched the last 2 minutes of the forth, and two OT's closely.
Imo if Stotts wanted to send a message, it would have been putting Turner or Harkless in for Crabbe before he went to the anyone under 6"6 sit the ef down.
Even Lillard stayed in front of Jackson better than Crabbe did late in the game. Jackson just got away with an obvious push off to get the jumper off on Lillard.

Oh, I agree. Crabbe has length, but he's not a good defender. It's all relative, he looks better than Dame because it's harder to shoot over him, but I actually think C.J. is a better defender, and the stats agree.

It's weird the way labels work. C.J. is part of the worst defending starting back court in the league, so it's automatically assumed he's a pathetic defender. I'm not saying he's a good defender, but he's actually not THAT bad.

Crabbe is called a 3 & D guy, because that's a cute term for guys who lack the skills to do anything with the ball other than catch and shoot, but he's actually a horrible defender. In Mediocre Man speak, I believe that makes a Crabbe a 3 & _ guy.

BNM
 
I think the Sac pick he mentions in the trade would be a 2019 Unprotected 1st round pick. Still 3 1st round picks this year.
And an unprotected SAC pick!?! I don't care how deferred it is - that could be GOLD!
 
It would be so tough to give up CJ, especially to a team like Philly were he could shoot all day. He would average 25-28ppg there and that would be tough to see on another team.
It would also be tough in a couple years when PHI is in the ECF and we're still struggling to get to the 2nd round. CJ/Embiid/Simmons could wreck the Leastern Conference if LBJ starts to follow the career trajectory of Wade.
 
BPA if I had to. Much rather trade it for something we need. Top six picks are PG or SF, our positions of strength--arguably.
As much as I like Harkless, I do not consider SF a position of strength. Being that, IMO, SF and SG are the two most important positions to have top quality talent at we could definitely use an upgrade. A star SF (and adequate PF or C) is exactly what this team needs. Harkless will never be a star.
 

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