The NBA’s Midseason Arms Race Is Upon Us (The Ringer)

[Boob-No-More]

A historically bad (for the West) 16-23 has us in the #8 slot....on pace for a gruesome 33 wins. That is pathetically bad for a Playoff team. I think Portland will finish better than that but it shows how far the chaff are behind after the #7 seed.



....where we drafted Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. I totally agree, the Lottery can be a crap shoot and some teams are run better than others but the stars in this league usually come from the Lottery. Not that there aren't busts and you can hit on a player later in the draft but when you look through the All-NBA teams, the majority are Lottery players.

2015-16 All-NBA Teams:
1st Team
LeBron James #1
Stephen Curry #7
Kawhi Leonard #15
DeAndre Jordan #35
Russell Westbrook #4

Jordan is an anomaly as he certainly isn't one of the 5 best players in the NBA but because the Center position is so down, they had to put someone in there.

2nd Team
Kevin Durant #2
Draymond Green #35
DeMarcus Cousins #5
Chris Paul #3
Damian Lillard #6

Again, a 2nd round pick but this is much more legit than DeAndre Jordan. Green is a stud and a true diamond in the rough.

3rd Team
Paul George #10
LaMarcus Aldridge #2
Andre Drummond #9
Klay Thompson #11
Kyle Lowry #24

Out of 15 players, only 4 are not Lottery players and Jordan has no business being 1st team but they had to choose a center. Kawhi at #15 missed the Lottery by one pick so Green and Lowry are the only real outliers. Those three teams don't include this year Top-2 choice for MVP, James Harden (#3).

So if you put the much more deserving Harden in and take Jordan out, that is 12 of 15 which is 80% of the All-NBA came from the Lottery. They also represent the last 5 NBA champions and all 10 of the teams that have played for the Finals in those season.

The Lottery is no sure thing when selecting....but teams aren't winning championships without Lottery picks either.

I never claimed there wasn't great talent available in the lottery. If you go back to my original post, I clearly stated that I would not count on anyone we draft in 2017 being able to immediately step in and replace the production we'd lose by trading Dame or C.J. I also specifically said I can't think of a single player drafted in the last 3 years that has had a significant impact on his team's success.

Sure it happens, but CLE was right back in the lottery after LeBron's rookie year. Even the greatest player drafted in the last 20 years wasn't impactful enough to carry his team to the playoffs his rookie year - and there is no LeBron James or Tim Duncan in the 2017 draft.

Your list of All-NBA players confirms that it definitely takes players a while to reach that level of greatness. Of the 15 players you listed, not a single one of them was in their first 3 years in the league.

2015-16 All-NBA Teams:
1st Team
LeBron James #1 - 13th season
Stephen Curry #7 - 7th season
Kawhi Leonard #15 - 5th season
DeAndre Jordan #35 - 8th season
Russell Westbrook #4 - 8th season

2nd Team
Kevin Durant #2 - 9th season
Draymond Green #35 - 4th season
DeMarcus Cousins #5 - 6th season
Chris Paul #3 - 11th season
Damian Lillard #6 - 4th season

3rd Team
Paul George #10 - 6th season
LaMarcus Aldridge #2 - 10th season
Andre Drummond #9 - 4th season
Klay Thompson #11 - 5th season
Kyle Lowry #24 - 10th season

Again, I'm not saying top talent isn't available in the lottery, or that lottery picks don't have value (as either trading chips or for landing your future star player). My original point was, don't count on anyone we draft in 2017 to help this team win significantly more games within the next three years. If we trade Dame or C.J. we need to get proven talent in return, and not just draft picks, to help this team contend within the window of opportunity of Lillard's or McCollum's prime.

BNM

 

[TBpup]

Again, I'm not saying top talent isn't available in the lottery, or that lottery picks don't have value (as either trading chips or for landing your future star player). My original point was, don't count on anyone we draft in 2017 to help this team win significantly more games within the next three years. If we trade Dame or C.J. we need to get proven talent in return, and not just draft picks, to help this team contend within the window of opportunity of Lillard's or McCollum's prime.

BNM

I don't think Lotto picks help get a team a lot more wins in their first few years either unless they are a junior/senior like Dame CJ where they can have more of an immediate impact. What I do think is picks will be assets to help in a trade and also help reset the cap issues that we have right now. POR is way over the Salary Cap and right up against the Lux tax which limits flexibility.

Since this team is doing so poorly as it is, getting more assets (needed by anyone's definition) to be able to make other moves with more cap flexibility seems like a good idea.

 

[Boob-No-More]

I don't think Lotto picks help get a team a lot more wins in their first few years either unless they are a junior/senior like Dame CJ where they can have more of an immediate impact. What I do think is picks will be assets to help in a trade and also help reset the cap issues that we have right now. POR is way over the Salary Cap and right up against the Lux tax which limits flexibility.

Since this team is doing so poorly as it is, getting more assets (needed by anyone's definition) to be able to make other moves with more cap flexibility seems like a good idea.

Wer'e on the same page. I said exactly the same thing in my original post:

"Now, if we want to actually improve, while Dame or C.J. (whichever we keep) are still in their prime, those draft picks can land the kind of proven talent that immediately turns a team around. That's the real reason to get excited about those draft picks. Sure, if we have more than one high draft pick, trade one and use the other to take a young player you can bring off the bench initially, who may someday be as good as Dame or C.J. Just don't expect them to be that good (if ever) until at least the 2019-20 season."

BNM

 

[TBpup]

Yes, those are the easy games that Portland should win. But saying that these 5-7th seeded teams will keep up their current pace when they've been building that pace against weaker opponents and will start to face stronger opponents in the future, is wrong. They're pace, due to the soft early schedule and tougher-later schedule means that a current winning percentage of .600 means that they're ON PACE to finish around .550, just due to strength of schedule.

Mike Barrett.....is that you? Just teasing, but he always made it sound like everyone else in the league had an easier schedule than the Blazers at almost any time throughout the year. It can't only be Portland that's' had a tough schedule and naturally it all evens out in the end. There might be a slight difference but Portland is 7 wins behind the closest above .500 game after just 39 games.....and that is the worst of the over .500 crowd. SoS might mean a couple of games but they are almost half of their win total behind the closest target.

That is a significant difference.

 

[blue9]

@Orion Bailey ....so take the next 30 games. If the #7 seed (currently the Thunder) continue at their current pace, they would win 18 of those games. That would make them 41-28. Portland would have to go 25-5 over the same period to get to the same 41 wins. Sure, anything is possible but Portland would have to play insanely better than they have so far or OKC is going to have to decline quite a bit. Even if they were to just go .500 (which would be much less than they are doing now) that would put them at 38-31. Portland would then have to go 22-8 over the same stretch.

I just don't see that happening. It is too much of a departure from who they have been so far. Bad teams just don't get that hot unless they were without a star due to injury and they come back. Even then, that would be a monstrous improvement.

So there are 43 games left. If whomever is #7 were just to play .500 ball, they get 44-45 wins. Right now the #4-7 seeds are averaging over .600 with just 2.5 games separating them. To catch them by season's end (if the #7 seed plays worse), Portland has to win 28-29 games out of 43. If they play at their current pace, Portland would have to win 32-33 out of 43 remaining games.Does anyone see them doing that?

Thanks for breaking this down. It makes my want to make the POs even less than I already did. Making the POs is the worst possible thing we could do this season (other than trading away both Dame AND CJ).

 

[TBpup]

Thanks for breaking this down. It makes my want to make the POs even less than I already did. Making the POs is the worst possible thing we could do this season (other than trading away both Dame AND CJ).

It sucks to be in a position where you come to the realization you need more help than what getting drilled in the Playoff would provide from an experience standpoint. This team was in 2 rounds of the Playoffs last year and it seemingly had no impact on this season.

This team needs additional assets, better talent and cap space and making the #8 seed as a below .500 team accomplishes very little on that list. If somehow they found themselves or a player broke out and helped make a difference, that would be one thing. But sadly, this team seems to be what it is. Yes, they started like this last year but if they are doing that again this year, that wipes out the progress they had in the 2nd half and the Playoffs and we are back to the wrong side of purgatory.

If they can make the Playoffs and compete, I'm all for that but right now, teams like GS and SA are destroying them where at least last year when they did lose, it was a close, competitive game in many cases.

 

[Cippy91]

Tunchi is smiling this season. I can hear him saying "told you, should just tank and hit the lottery". As much as I disliked tunchi he had a couple points. Not saying tanking is one but he had some points

 

[TBpup]

I'm not for actively tanking but if WITH Dame playing league leading mpg we are at a .410 winning percentage, why not try developing the younger players a bit more if for not other reason than to find out what you have. It's not like it can hurt a lot at this rate.

 

[blue9]

I'm not for actively tanking but if WITH Dame playing league leading mpg we are at a .410 winning percentage, why not try developing the younger players a bit more if for not other reason than to find out what you have. It's not like it can hurt a lot at this rate.

Seriously, if we're losing AND playing like crap, we might as well throw major minutes at Vonleh in an attempt to salvage that dumpster fire of a trade.

 

[TBpup]

Seriously, if we're losing AND playing like crap, we might as well throw major minutes at Vonleh in an attempt to salvage that dumpster fire of a trade.

Vonleh and Layman. There are few players in the league that can do what Jake did in his first ever quarter of NBA play. Of course that was garbage time and he got ridiculously hot, but to even get that hot is a rarity regardless of circumstances. Would be nice to see if there is more where that came from besides just 2 minutes at the end of a game.

 

[oldfisherman]

If they can make the Playoffs and compete, I'm all for that but right now, teams like GS and SA are destroying them where at least last year when they did lose, it was a close, competitive game in many cases.

This 10x over.
Last season, it felt like the Blazers had a good chance to beat any team in the league, and sometimes they did beat the best.
This season, we hold our breaths hopping our guys do not embarrass themselves against the bottom dwellers.

 

[Cippy91]

I'm not for actively tanking but if WITH Dame playing league leading mpg we are at a .410 winning percentage, why not try developing the younger players a bit more if for not other reason than to find out what you have. It's not like it can hurt a lot at this rate.

I don't know about vonleh,that's the thing. He has potential but how long will that take?

 

[TBpup]

I don't know about vonleh,that's the thing. He has potential but how long will that take?

Now seems like a good opportunity to find out.

 

[blue9]

I don't know about vonleh,that's the thing. He has potential but how long will that take?

The thing is, we'll never know until we give it a try. What's the worst that happens - we lose to shitty teams? Welp, that's happening now and Vonleh is a total mystery. Maybe Neil is hoping that some other sucker of a GM will take what's behind Door #3, rather than letting them see that it's just some big doofus?

 

[Cippy91]

The thing is, we'll never know until we give it a try. What's the worst that happens - we lose to shitty teams? Welp, that's happening now and Vonleh is a total mystery. Maybe Neil is hoping that some other sucker of a GM will take what's behind Door #3, rather than letting them see that it's just some big doofus?

I'm down to try if we aren't winning which we aren't but I'm not stotts.

 

[TBpup]

Find out what you've got as you know improvements need to be made. They went from the #8 pick in the Lottery to #15 with one win over the Lakers and a couple of SAC losses. Quite a difference.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Three Trail Blazers who signed huge offseason deals will become eligible to be traded on Sunday. Keep an eye on whether Portland tries to unload some of the salary it committed to Allen Crabbe, Maurice Harkless and Meyers Leonard.

Crabbe has kicker.
Hark is a keeper.

Meyers is the one who could be traded.

 

[RR7]

Three Trail Blazers who signed huge offseason deals will become eligible to be traded on Sunday. Keep an eye on whether Portland tries to unload some of the salary it committed to Allen Crabbe, Maurice Harkless and Meyers Leonard.

Crabbe has kicker.
Hark is a keeper.

Meyers is the one who could be traded.

So the one with the least trade value. Well, don't expect much in return then.

 

[Dougnsalem]

So the one with the least trade value. Well, don't expect much in return then.

A ball boy/Gatoraide getter, is fine with me

 

[oldfisherman]

Paying Crabbe’s kicker this season would be waaaaayyyyy less than paying LT next season on Plumlee’s RFA contract.

 

[Shaboid]

A ball boy/Gatoraide getter, is fine with me

I was thinking equivalent value would be a used Motorola Razr.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Paying Crabbe’s kicker this season would be waaaaayyyyy less than paying LT next season on Plumlee’s RFA contract.

If Crabbe gets traded on Sunday, the first day he is eligible, his trade kicker would be $9.8 million (15% of the remaining value of his contract). After that, the trade kicker goes down by $33,481 (0.15*$18,500,000/82) for every game he plays for the Blazers.

In addition to the trade kicker, Crabbe also has veto power over any trade between the 15th and July 1. Plus the value of the trade kicker does not count as outgoing salary to POR, but does count as incoming salary for any team acquiring Crabbe. So, if we want to trade Crabbe, we need to find a trading partner than can absorb his salary + trade kicker that Crabbe wants to play for. And, that partner can't be BRK, at least not until July 1.

BNM

 

[oldfisherman]

If Crabbe gets traded on Sunday, the first day he is eligible, his trade kicker would be $9.8 million (15% of the remaining value of his contract). After that, the trade kicker goes down by $33,481 (0.15*$18,500,000/82) for every game he plays for the Blazers.

In addition to the trade kicker, Crabbe also has veto power over any trade between the 15th and July 1. Plus the value of the trade kicker does not count as outgoing salary to POR, but does count as incoming salary for any team acquiring Crabbe. So, if we want to trade Crabbe, we need to find a trading partner than can absorb his salary + trade kicker that Crabbe wants to play for. And, that partner can't be BRK, at least not until July 1.

BNM

Would Crabbe’s trade kicker be paid in one lump sum, and count against the incoming team’s cap for only for this season? Or, is it spread out over the length of his contract?

If it is spread out, we are talking about slightly less than $3 million additional per season against the other teams cap space. As far as when PA has to pay it, it probably would come out of petty cash, and does not matter.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Would Crabbe’s trade kicker be paid in one lump sum, and count against the incoming team’s cap for only for this season? Or, is it spread out over the length of his contract?

If it is spread out, we are talking about slightly less than $3 million additional per season against the other teams cap space. As far as when PA has to pay it, it probably would come out of petty cash, and does not matter.

I believe the former, paid as one lump sum, but only 15% of his current salary would count as incoming salary for cap purposes. That would make his outgoing trade value $18.5 million and his incoming trade value $21.275 million.

BNM

 

[Orion Bailey]

Three Trail Blazers who signed huge offseason deals will become eligible to be traded on Sunday. Keep an eye on whether Portland tries to unload some of the salary it committed to Allen Crabbe, Maurice Harkless and Meyers Leonard.

Crabbe has kicker.
Hark is a keeper.

Meyers is the one who could be traded.

Sorry man, Many around here know I was a HUGE Meyers fan, but you had some great points until that last line. It made me laugh so hard.
There is such a BIG difference in meaning between could and should.