The Nurk Effect: Point Differential

[e_blazer]

Looking at last year's stats, for the full season the Blazers averaged 107.9 ppg while allowing their opponents a whopping 108.5 ppg, for a net differential of -0.6 ppg. The offensive production was good for 5th in the West, while the points allowed was a horrible 11th in the conference. The net differential was only good for 9th best in the West.

All of that said, if you look at just the 19 games that Nurkic started, the scoring went up to 110.7 ppg while points allowed dropped to 106.3 ppg. The net difference of 4.4 would have placed 4th in the West had it been carried out over a full season. So, is the Nurk effect really worth an overall improvement of almost 5 ppg in net difference between points scored vs. points allowed? Some of the improvement was undoubtedly due to relative strength of schedule as that was a softer stretch of games. However, if you include the fact that Nurk was out of shape and didn't know the system, it seems reasonable to think that his impact next season could translate to an improvement of about that magnitude. Other teams got better in the West, so I'm not saying that the Blazers should be expected to finish 4th in the conference, but I do think that this points to the fact that the media are sleeping a bit on the Blazers in their pre-season predictions.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Nurk will be a difference maker. I rewatched some of his games over the weekend, and a couple things stand out:

1 - He has a nose for the ball and boxes out well. We improved our rebounding over Plumlee when we traded for Nurkic.

2 - his passing is Sabas-like in its accuracy, timing, and overall skill. This cannot be underestimated; as he works with his teammates, they will all improve because he's a threat to get you 6 assists any night.

3 - you can't double him, but you can't not double him either. Nurkic has enough low post loves that he'll score on single coverage, or get a lone defender into foul trouble. But because of his passing, doubling him is a bad idea.

It will come down to how many varied looks Nurkic gets each night to keep defenses on their toes. We had a couple of looks for Plumlee but he was too limited offensively to have four good looks. Nurk deserves six different plays that center on him, each run a couple times a night.

My estimate is that he'll get 18/12/6 a night, if his teammates can take advantage of the opportunities he gives them. If he can hit this numbers, we will win way more games than we lose.

 

[blue9]

However, if you include the fact that Nurk was out of shape and didn't know the system, it seems reasonable to think that his impact next season could translate to an improvement of about that magnitude.

I wonder if "not knowing the system" might actually have been a good thing, as the defense didn't know what to expect from him. Perhaps once Nurk becomes part of the system he becomes more predictable and therefore easier to guard. Not saying that I think this is the case, but rather a devil's advocate counter to the idea that not knowing the system is a hindrance to performance.

It's no secret that I don't think highly of Stotts. I will be curious to see what his offense looks like now that we have Nurk. I agree with BC that Nurk needs to be heavily featured, and touch the ball on most possessions. Because Dame isn't a natural passer (or maybe it's because Stotts' offense doesn't create good passing lanes for PGs?), I'd like to see Nurk used as a primary play-maker - a good inside/out offense, where Dame and CJ can play to their strengths as excellent catch/shoot players to provide Nurk with space and passing lanes. I'm not expecting terrific defense, but with our starting 5 we should have one of the top offenses in the league.

 

[e_blazer]

I wonder if "not knowing the system" might actually have been a good thing, as the defense didn't know what to expect from him. Perhaps once Nurk becomes part of the system he becomes more predictable and therefore easier to guard. Not saying that I think this is the case, but rather a devil's advocate counter to the idea that not knowing the system is a hindrance to performance.

It's no secret that I don't think highly of Stotts. I will be curious to see what his offense looks like now that we have Nurk. I agree with BC that Nurk needs to be heavily featured, and touch the ball on most possessions. Because Dame isn't a natural passer (or maybe it's because Stotts' offense doesn't create good passing lanes for PGs?), I'd like to see Nurk used as a primary play-maker - a good inside/out offense, where Dame and CJ can play to their strengths as excellent catch/shoot players to provide Nurk with space and passing lanes. I'm not expecting terrific defense, but with our starting 5 we should have one of the top offenses in the league.

The weird thing about last season was how badly the defense fell off a cliff with basically the same roster (until the Nurkic trade). In 2015 the Blazers allowed 104.3 ppg, but that shot up to 108.5 last year. Even with an improvement in offensive production from 105.1 in 2015-16 to 107.9 last year, the net difference fell from a positive 0.8 to a negative 0.6. If the Blazers can get back to the defense that they had year before last, they should challenge for 4th to 6th in the West.

 

[THE HCP]

Question on the original post. When collecting all those numbers, does it put into account strength of schedule? Like the numbers would be drastically different if one of those games was against the Magic instead of the Spurs? Does it work like that, or no?

 

[THE HCP]

I do know the spacing on the floor was night and day different once Nurk showed up. So much more spread out. Amazing what having a low post threat can do!

 

[e_blazer]

Question on the original post. When collecting all those numbers, does it put into account strength of schedule? Like the numbers would be drastically different if one of those games was against the Magic instead of the Spurs? Does it work like that, or no?

You'll have to get one of the advanced stat geeks to do that analysis for you. I just entered the points scored and allowed for those 19 games into a spreadsheet.

Here's the data:

Opponent Us Them
Orlando 112 103
Toronto 106 112
Detroit 113 120
Oklahoma 114 109
Brooklyn 130 116
Oklahoma 126 121
Philadelphia 114 108
Washington 124 125
Phoenix 101 110
New Orleans 77 100
San Antonio 110 106
Atlanta 113 97
Miami 115 104
Milwaukee 90 93
New York 110 95
Minnesota 112 100
LA Lakers 97 81
Denver 122 113
Houston 117 107

Average points scored: 110.7
Average points allowed: 106.3
Net difference: 4.4

 

[THE HCP]

I think 19 games is a good amount of stats to see a trend realistically.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

My estimate is that he'll get 18/12/6 a night, if his teammates can take advantage of the opportunities he gives them. If he can hit this numbers, we will win way more games than we lose.

That seems over-optimistic, particularly the rebounding (actually, the assists too). I think a lot will depend on whether or not he gets into foul trouble.

My guess: more like 15/10/3, provided he doesn't get injured.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

That seems over-optimistic, particularly the rebounding (actually, the assists too). I think a lot will depend on whether or not he gets into foul trouble.

My guess: more like 15/10/3, provided he doesn't get injured.

I'll split the difference with you: 15/10/5. I think Stotts really likes the high key "Point Center" configuration, and Nurk is better at it than Plumlee was, so we'll see it more often.

 

[riverman]

The weird thing about last season was how badly the defense fell off a cliff with basically the same roster (until the Nurkic trade). In 2015 the Blazers allowed 104.3 ppg, but that shot up to 108.5 last year. Even with an improvement in offensive production from 105.1 in 2015-16 to 107.9 last year, the net difference fell from a positive 0.8 to a negative 0.6. If the Blazers can get back to the defense that they had year before last, they should challenge for 4th to 6th in the West.

Gerald Henderson helped us

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Gerald Henderson helped us

Ed Davis did too; remember we had no backup center for like 2/3 of the season.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Logically, we should be quite a bit better. However, this is precisely the situation where we struggle. For example, I've seen the following many times:

• After a tough portion of our schedule...
• @HCP will point out how much easier our upcoming schedule is and predicts great things...
• Other posters will predict we'll win 12 of our next 14...
• @KingSpeed will predict 19 wins in 20 games...
• I'll get nervous...
• Blazers only win 7 of next 14...

Another Example:

• Blazers looking like they could finish top 3 in the West, maybe top 2...
• We trade for a highly skilled scorer (Afflalo)...
• What could go wrong....

Again:

• Blazers have the highest odds of getting the #1 overall pick...
• We should be getting the best player in the draft, or at least close to it...
• We end up with the 4th pick.

and Again:

• Blazers get lucky and get the #1 pick in the draft...
• A once in a generation center is available...
• We get him........

The story of the Blazers just seems like the tale of the Zen Master in the movie Charlie Wilson's war:

 

[dviss1]

Nurk will be a difference maker. I rewatched some of his games over the weekend, and a couple things stand out:

1 - He has a nose for the ball and boxes out well. We improved our rebounding over Plumlee when we traded for Nurkic.

2 - his passing is Sabas-like in its accuracy, timing, and overall skill. This cannot be underestimated; as he works with his teammates, they will all improve because he's a threat to get you 6 assists any night.

3 - you can't double him, but you can't not double him either. Nurkic has enough low post loves that he'll score on single coverage, or get a lone defender into foul trouble. But because of his passing, doubling him is a bad idea.

It will come down to how many varied looks Nurkic gets each night to keep defenses on their toes. We had a couple of looks for Plumlee but he was too limited offensively to have four good looks. Nurk deserves six different plays that center on him, each run a couple times a night.

My estimate is that he'll get 18/12/6 a night, if his teammates can take advantage of the opportunities he gives them. If he can hit this numbers, we will win way more games than we lose.

I think you are a bit high in the assist area. I can see him flirting with triple doubles on some nights but I don't see him averaging more than 4. I hope he gets to 6!!

 

[blue9]

I think you are a bit high in the assist area. I can see him flirting with triple doubles on some nights but I don't see him averaging more than 4. I hope he gets to 6!!

Agreed. I've found myself falling into that thinking, though. There's no reason Nurk can't average 6apg - but I just don't see it happening. I think the ball will still primarily be in Dame's (and CJ's, and Turner's) hands. Also, Nurk does like to score - he'd have to focus almost entirely on play-making, at the expense of shooting, in order to average 6apg. I'd like to see him balance his offense between scoring and passing because the scoring is going to increase the foul rate of the defense, which benefits the entire team.

If Nurk can average 4.5apg that'll help make up for Dame's pedestrian assist numbers. If the two of them can combine for 11+apg that would be pretty good.

 

[Boob-No-More]

My estimate is that he'll get 18/12/6 a night, if his teammates can take advantage of the opportunities he gives them. If he can hit this numbers, we will win way more games than we lose.

I have pointed this out before...

Predicting Nurk will average 6 assists per game is insanely optimistic. A center has only averaged => 6.0 apg twice in the history of the NBA. Both times it was Wilt. The last time he did it was 50 years ago. Keep in mind:

a) It was Wilt
.
.
.
.
.
y) The game was different then
z) He averaged 46.8 mpg

Only twice since 1980 has a center even averaged => 5.0 apg. Joakim Noah averaged 5.4 apg in 2013-14 and Vlade Divac averaged 5.3 apg in 2003-04.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but also keep in mind those guys were all veterans that had been starters for several years before they accomplished those numbers. Wilt was 31, Noah was 28 and Vlade was 35. Expecting that kind of production from a 23-year old who has never even been a full time starter for a full season is highly unrealistic.

Last year, in his 20 games as a Blazer, Nurk averaged 15.2/10.4/3.2 with 1.9 bpg in 29.3 mpg. Honestly, I'd be thrilled with 75 games of that level of production. His per-36 numbers as a Blazer were 18.7/12.8/3.9/2.3.

I doubt if he averages 36 mpg, he's never come close and I'd much rather have him fresh for the playoffs than worn out from playing too many minutes during the regular season. So, I think something like 16.5/11.0/3.5/2.0 in 32 mpg would be pretty damn fabulous.

BNM

 

[BlazerCaravan]

I have pointed this out before...

Predicting Nurk will average 6 assists per game is insanely optimistic. A center has only averaged => 6.0 apg twice in the history of the NBA. Both times it was Wilt. The last time he did it was 50 years ago. Keep in mind:

a) It was Wilt
.
.
.
.
.
y) The game was different then
z) He averaged 46.8 mpg

Only twice since 1980 has a center even averaged => 5.0 apg. Joakim Noah averaged 5.4 apg in 2013-14 and Vlade Divac averaged 5.3 apg in 2003-04.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but also keep in mind those guys were all veterans that had been starters for several years before they accomplished those numbers. Wilt was 31, Noah was 28 and Vlade was 35. Expecting that kind of production from a 23-year old who has never even been a full time starter for a full season is highly unrealistic.

Last year, in his 20 games as a Blazer, Nurk averaged 15.2/10.4/3.2 with 1.9 bpg in 29.3 mpg. Honestly, I'd be thrilled with 75 games of that level of production. His per-36 numbers as a Blazer were 18.7/12.8/3.9/2.3.

I doubt if he averages 36 mpg, he's never come close and I'd much rather have him fresh for the playoffs than worn out from playing too many minutes during the regular season. So, I think something like 16.5/11.0/3.5/2.0 in 32 mpg would be pretty damn fabulous.

BNM

I still see the assists going up to at least 4.5 because Stotts will maximize his skills; it's a bet I'm making with myself, because yeah many signs point to 3.5 being his natural ceiling. However, I'm also banking on improvement. 15/10/3 in 29 minutes, at the age of 22, when you're out of shape? I think we can improve all those numbers by 1 each in the same number of minutes, including assists; add 3 minutes a game to his shift and players looking for him? I think he gets up to 4.5, 5.0 maybe.

Yes, I'm being a total homer. I know and acknowledge this. But I think Nurk is special.

 

[handiman]

The fact that Hakeem isn't in the discussion during their championship runs, tells you how hard it is for a center to average those kind of assist numbers. It seemed like he was kicking it out to open 3-pt shooters a dozen times a game at least.

 

[dviss1]

The fact that Hakeem isn't in the discussion during their championship runs, tells you how hard it is for a center to average those kind of assist numbers. It seemed like he was kicking it out to open 3-pt shooters a dozen times a game at least.

He averaged 5.5 a game during that series.

 

[dviss1]

He averaged 5.5 a game during that series.

Drexler averaged almost 7 per game in that series!

 

[dviss1]

Jesus Shaq averaged 6.3 APG in those finals.

 

[blue9]

The thing that makes it seem like Nurk could average a higher number is that it seems like he could easily get 2 assists to Harkless and 2 assists to Vonleh every game. With the way Hark cuts and gets position around the basket it seems like 2 assists should be a sure thing. And then with Vonleh, the way Nurk pulls defenders away from Vonleh it again seems like he should be able to get two from Noah every night. And that doesn't take into account kick-outs for open 3s from CJ/Dame.

Again, I don't think this will happen - but it seems like it should. It's weird.

 

[Boob-No-More]

I still see the assists going up to at least 4.5 because Stotts will maximize his skills; it's a bet I'm making with myself, because yeah many signs point to 3.5 being his natural ceiling. However, I'm also banking on improvement. 15/10/3 in 29 minutes, at the age of 22, when you're out of shape? I think we can improve all those numbers by 1 each in the same number of minutes, including assists; add 3 minutes a game to his shift and players looking for him? I think he gets up to 4.5, 5.0 maybe.

Yes, I'm being a total homer. I know and acknowledge this. But I think Nurk is special.

As much as I'd love to see Nurk have an historic season (most assists by a center in 50 years), I'm going to stop short of expecting, or predicting, it. Keep in mind no one on our team, not even our starting PG, averaged 6 apg last season. Stotts' system relies on a lot of ball movement, which means the assists tend to get spread around. Nurk will get his share, but I don't think we'll see historic assist numbers from any one single player in the Stotts' system. And that's fine. As long as the team is creating lots of easy scoring opportunities, I'd don't care which individuals are getting the assists.

While everything you say is true, also keep in mind the sample size was 20 games. This year, teams will have film on Nurkic in the Blazer system to use for scouting and game planning. Most in-season scouting in the NBA is about taking away a players strengths and forcing them out of their comfort zone - especially for the top 3 players on each team. As good as Nurk was in those 20 games, he was not perfect. He was very turnover prone and shot a fairly low percentage within 10 feet of the basket. Look for teams to try to take away the passing lanes and force him to put the ball on the floor more.

In any case, he will be in better shape and will be more familiar with the system and his teammates - but the rest of the league will also be more familiar with Nurk in the Blazer system. He's not going to catch anyone by surprise or unprepared. And, it's an 82 game sample size, not 20 games. Any player can get hot and put up good numbers for 10 or 20 games, Sustaining that over the course of a full 82 game schedule is much harder.

So, as I said, I'd be happy with 75 games of production comparable to the 20 games we got last year and I'd be thrilled with a slight up tick in his numbers to 16.5/11/3.5/2. Those are still damn fine numbers for your 3rd option.

BNM

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Opposing team's fans at the end of next season:
"Nurk's #s aren't that great, our big guy's numbers are almost as good. It's that ALL of the other guys have stepped up their percentages and their defense, that's why the Blazers finished so well."

S2er: "Why do you think ALL of those guys are magically having career years? I'll tell you why: Ju-sef Nur-kic"

 

[BlazerCaravan]

The thing that makes it seem like Nurk could average a higher number is that it seems like he could easily get 2 assists to Harkless and 2 assists to Vonleh every game. With the way Hark cuts and gets position around the basket it seems like 2 assists should be a sure thing. And then with Vonleh, the way Nurk pulls defenders away from Vonleh it again seems like he should be able to get two from Noah every night. And that doesn't take into account kick-outs for open 3s from CJ/Dame.

Again, I don't think this will happen - but it seems like it should. It's weird.

Assists do require the other players on your team to hit shots, but yeah he should get 4 assists just dumping to cutters.

Aprorpos of nothing, you should get an assist if the shooter was fouled and makes both FTs.

 

[blue9]

As much as I'd love to see Nurk have an historic season (most assists by a center in 50 years), I'm going to stop short of expecting, or predicting, it. Keep in mind no one on our team, not even our starting PG, averaged 6 apg last season. Stotts' system relies on a lot of ball movement, which means the assists tend to get spread around.

Eh - not really. We ranked #23 is APG as a team. We haven't had a player who truly excels at passing since Dre, and Stotts' system is so reliant on hitting long jumpers (or ISO) that passes don't get translated into assists at a very good rate.

 

[blue9]

Aprorpos of nothing, you should get an assist if the shooter was fouled and makes both FTs.

Agreed.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Assists do require the other players on your team to hit shots, but yeah he should get 4 assists just dumping to cutters.

Aprorpos of nothing, you should get an assist if the shooter was fouled and makes both FTs.

"Apropos to Nothing" would be a great screen name, or band name for that matter

 

[BlazerCaravan]

In any case, he will be in better shape and will be more familiar with the system and his teammates - but the rest of the league will also be more familiar with Nurk in the Blazer system. He's not going to catch anyone by surprise or unprepared. And, it's an 82 game sample size, not 20 games. Any player can get hot and put up good numbers for 10 or 20 games, Sustaining that over the course of a full 82 game schedule is much harder.

What's the scouting report on Nurk, though? Do you double him or not? Do you fade off him at the top of the key knowing how well he drives to the hole? He's too good a passer to fully double, or even offer late help on because he can flip a pass at any point in his offensive motion; he's not like those guys (*cough*LMA*cough*) who stop interacting with the play when they begin their move.

He's going to cause a lot of teams a lot of problems.

 

[theprunetang]

What's the scouting report on Nurk, though? Do you double him or not? Do you fade off him at the top of the key knowing how well he drives to the hole? He's too good a passer to fully double, or even offer late help on because he can flip a pass at any point in his offensive motion; he's not like those guys (*cough*LMA*cough*) who stop interacting with the play when they begin their move.

He's going to cause a lot of teams a lot of problems.

I love you.