The Oden Factor . . .

[Shooter]

I haven't made a pro-Oden post like this in a long, long time, but it's worth at least thinking about. The guy is chronically injured, and fragile as they come, but . . .

IF Oden comes back and plays like a dominant big man again, we'll forget all about this disappointing 2011 draft. In fact, if Oden can play a full season without injuries, and get his confidence back, we can win an NBA title. I have no doubt about that.

Right now, without Oden, our roster looks fairly unimpressive. WITH Oden, however, it's a pretty darn amazing roster. We will have a complete team that is very intimidating and hard to deal with.

But all of that depends on getting a healthy Oden again . . .

 

[Boise Blazer]

Amazing but true Shooter. There are very few players in this league that have that type of impact if they are healthy/hurt. To take a fringe playoff team to a legit title contender says a lot about his potential impact.

(fingers crossed ...)

 

[PapaG]

I haven't made a pro-Oden post like this in a long, long time, but it's worth at least thinking about. The guy is chronically injured, and fragile as they come, but .. . .

So, when are you going to post a pro-Oden post?

 

[Mediocre Man]

And IF Roy comes back healthy
And IF Felton is great
And IF Nate learns to coach in the playoffs
And IF Aldridge continues to play at an all NBA level
And IF our back up PG duties are well covered
And IF we can add an NBA level player at the back up 4
And IF Camby can stay relatively healthy
And IF
And IF
And IF

 

[glazeduck]

Right now, without Oden, our roster looks fairly unimpressive...

Does it? Maybe unimpressive is the right word to use, but I feel like there's a certain disappointment with things around here lately... At worst, I'd say our roster has some question marks...

PG - Felton, 27 yrs old. Playing the best ball of his life right now. Even if he simply maintains the same level of production that Dre was giving us, he should have at least 5 or 6 more years at that level (far more than Dre does). I really, really REALLY want to be skeptical about the Nolan Smith pick, but something has me thinking it might work out. No question we've been scouting PGs extremely hard these last few years and we reached on Smith to take him over Reggie Jackson, Norris Cole, Selby, Mack, etc. Don't get me wrong, I don't think he'll be what Ty Lawson was for the Nuggets, but if he can come in and play solid D, not make mistakes on offense and give us 10 pts a night, isn't that what we've been wanting from our backup PG? To me, It's hard not to feel optimistic about this position and feel like we're at least closer to not having to worry about the "PGOTF" for another 5 years or so.

SG - I feel confident about SG as long as each guy can learn his role on the team. Wesley looks like our unquestioned starter now. He needs to learn that he's not a combo guard, he's strictly a SHOOTing guard. Hard to keep in mind that last year was only his 2nd year in the league. Brandon is a tragic story, but (hopefully, health permitting) one that doesn't have to end in the death of our hero (or in this case, his career). Brandon is still a terrific basketball player, it appears his health will just be limiting what he can do from here on out. Ideally, BRoy can figure out how to play below the rim, setting up his teammates, working with his disabilities, and figuring out how to be effective and efficient with what he has left. Elliot Williams is intriguing because he's such a phenomenal athlete. Hopefully his knees will get back to 100% and he'll be able to provide the exact opposite of what BRoy will - energy and athleticism as our 4th or 5th guard off the bench. Diebler, while strictly a 3pt specialist, could stick with this team if he comes in as advertised.

SF - Crash and Batum, does it get more solid than that?

PF - One of the best in the league with no backup. GAPING HOLE HERE.

C - Camby is one of the best veteran big men we've had (for players at the end of their career - that is), possibly ever, in that everything he does makes us more efficient. I think his ankle injury derailed any scoring he potentially provides, so hopefully that'll be regained this season. Behind him, I think Chris Johnson represents a lot of potential with limited risk if you take him for what he is - a disrupter who can plays with energy and passion - just needs to get the mental part down.

All in all, aside from backup PF - which I fully expect us to try to address in a big way, I feel pretty good about our roster even w/out GO. I see almost everyone being in a high ceiling, high floor (ie. low "bust" factor) situation.

I'm as anxious as the next guy for Greg to come back healthy, but feel ok even if we have to keep waiting.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Assuming a healthy Oden...

And IF Roy comes back healthy

Would be nice, but not necessary

And IF Felton is great

Felton would simply need to be adequate, not "great"

And IF Nate learns to coach in the playoffs

Healthy Oden makes coaching easier

And IF Aldridge continues to play at an all NBA level

Healthy Oden makes Aldridge's life easier

And IF our back up PG duties are well covered

Smith simply needs to be passable

And IF we can add an NBA level player at the back up 4

Healthy Oden makes it possible for Wallace/Batum to cover all SF minutes and backup PF minutes

And IF Camby can stay relatively healthy

THIS, IMO, is the most legitimate "IF" in your list. Healthy Oden + Healthy Camby = everything else being easier for everyone else.

 

[Shooter]

So, when are you going to post a pro-Oden post?

Sorry, PapaG, but that's about as positive as I can be about Oden.

 

[Shooter]

Assuming a healthy Oden...

Would be nice, but not necessary
Felton would simply need to be adequate, not "great"
Healthy Oden makes coaching easier
Healthy Oden makes Aldridge's life easier
Smith simply needs to be passable
Healthy Oden makes it possible for Wallace/Batum to cover all SF minutes and backup PF minutes
THIS, IMO, is the most legitimate "IF" in your list. Healthy Oden + Healthy Camby = everything else being easier for everyone else.

Absolutely right. I've seen enough glimpses from Oden over the last 4 years to realize what kind of a "difference-maker" he can be if he's healthy. As Boise Blazer said, Oden is one of the few players in the league who can make up for deficencies in some of our other players.

 

[craigehlo]

Oden wasn't "dominant" in the NBA before his last injury, so I'm not sure of there's cause for optimism for that now. He was foul prone and had the offensive fluidity of Frankenstein's monster.

I can see him contributing like Bynum possibly. I think any Blazer fan would take that.

 

[Minstrel]

Oden's had the equivalent one year in the NBA. So, viewed in that prism, Oden was pretty damn dominant for a rookie center. He was a defensive difference-maker for the entire team defense, an incredible rebounder and an extremely efficient scorer who drew consistent double-teams (though he wasn't a go-to scorer). Not bad for his first 80 or so games in the league.

He needs to stay healthy and reduce the number of unnecessary fouls. If he does those two things, I think he'll develop into a superstar big man. The first one I have no way of ascribing odds to. If the first happens, I consider the second pretty likely as foul troubles are pretty common for rookie big men but they decrease as the player adapts to the NBA speed and game.

 

[Nikolokolus]

He'll have been out of basketball for 2 full years when he finally returns to the court ... God knows what we'll see even if he's healthy.

 

[Targus]

I'd love nothing more than to see Oden on the court - dominating in the paint. We don't need him to be a scorer, but desperately need him to rebound and play defense.

It's just not going to happen. We're not dealing with an injury prone player it really is - his body just support any level of consistent play. It's been beaten like a dead horse, but factor his physical challenges with the mental aspect of being fearful of continued injury with every jump, bump, blockout, contact - and we're left with less than IF's - we're left with only the thoughts and dreams of "what if's" (what his healthy career would have meant to our franchise).

 

[mook]

I'm hoping Oden has a Walton or Sabonis-like career. Both seem pretty reasonable hopes (although unreasonable expectations).

If he goes Walton on us, he gives one or two years of utterly fantastic, league-dominating center play. That combined with what we're already getting from Aldridge and a pretty good supporting cast, and we're a favorite to make the finals. Then something gets out of whack and we all count ourselves lucky to behold a shooting star of greatness.

If he goes Sabonis on us, we'll get 7-9 years of high quality, limited minute center play, interspersed with injury after injury after injury. Sabonis was so good that you just had to live with it, and Oden would be too.

There is, of course, at least one other direction he could go. It's the one the media always compares him to. I'll just use initials. SB. Crossing my goddamned fingers.

People focus on #3, because of all the history around this franchise, and to make fun comparisons to Jordan/Durant.

But nothing is set in stone. #3 may indeed be the most likely, but both #1 and #2 are certainly in the realm of possibility. And that's enough to keep me hoping.

 

[Blazinaway]

I'm getting brain dead on the Oden subject, part of me wants to cut ties and thinks we are just wasting our time with Greg, added to that I am beginning to think he wants out of POR no matter what next summer - so why bother?

Then there is that faint flicker of "hope" that he maybe, just maybe, he can come back and stay healthy, and be re-signed and make us a contender - "false hope" most likely but it's hard to let go

 

[BlazerBeav]

Again, if we can get him out on the court this season, no team will have improved themselves as much as we will have. It won't even be close. He'll have a bigger impact than any other offseason acquisition in the league. The more negative types on here calling Portland a "fringe" playoff team don't want to accept that the NBA champs had a more difficult time dealing with our "fringe" team than with most of the other teams they faced - and that was without Oden. How does Dallas match up with a low post threat? Like LaMarcus said - having Oden would force Dirk to defend LA instead of float around on defense saving energy for the other end.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

i think his biggest obstacle will be staying on the floor... he put up a great PER, but in only 23 mpg

if he can keep his PER above 20 WHILE playing 30 mpg..., beast mode

 

[STOMP]

Oden wasn't "dominant" in the NBA before his last injury, so I'm not sure of there's cause for optimism for that now. He was foul prone and had the offensive fluidity of Frankenstein's monster.

thats a mighty big half full glass you've got there. The last time Greg played he was the league leader in boards & blocks per minute. He had a gaudy Total Shooting % of 65% and a PER of 23.1. Sure he was a bit more foul prone then you'd prefer, but his rate wasn't that bad... if you project it out he was on pace to foul out after 36 minutes.

I'll happily settle for more of the same IF there is a season

STOMP

 

[Boise Blazer]

Again, if we can get him out on the court this season, no team will have improved themselves as much as we will have. It won't even be close. He'll have a bigger impact than any other offseason acquisition in the league. The more negative types on here calling Portland a "fringe" playoff team don't want to accept that the NBA champs had a more difficult time dealing with our "fringe" team than with most of the other teams they faced - and that was without Oden. How does Dallas match up with a low post threat? Like LaMarcus said - having Oden would force Dirk to defend LA instead of float around on defense saving energy for the other end.

I wasnt really referring to the quality of our team when using the term "fringe". I meant in the more statistical sense that we were only 2 games out of the 8 spot. But really it doesnt matter because I agree we had a good team without Oden. But there is no way I could ever consider us serious championship contenders last season even if we did play the eventual champs tough. And since was the first person to agree that Oden would make us so much better Im not really sure why you didnt seem to like my post. Seems like we pretty much agree.

 

[craigehlo]

He had a gaudy Total Shooting % of 65% and a PER of 23.1.

He was solid for sure, but I remember 1 single game against the Bulls where I would call his performance "dominant." His PER was great, but it didn't exactly translate into having Dwight Howard patrolling the paint in the real world. This team wasn't a contender with him before his most recent surgery. I fail to see how adding yet another microfracture is going to make him any better or suddenly elevate them into contenders.

 

[Targus]

I'm not holding out for much hope on this one, but imagine the Oden/Wallace/LA dynamic - how they compliment - and the matchup challenge it would pose for any team. I can't think of any team who could reasonably matchup.

Batum off the bench...

WM and Felton at the guard positions - are you kidding me?? Sick!! The defense! The rebounding! The physical, yet finesse play....

Oden truly is the X factor. Dang it all, it just seems little to none chance of happening.

 

[MickZagger]

He'll have been out of basketball for 2 full years when he finally returns to the court ... God knows what we'll see even if he's healthy.

Size is enough for me.

 

[oldmangrouch]

The Oden factor: a built in excuse to tread water. "We don't have to make big changes, we'll be fine once Oden returns and saves us!"

 

[Shooter]

The Oden factor: a built in excuse to tread water. "We don't have to make big changes, we'll be fine once Oden returns and saves us!"

In reality, Oden probably won't save us. He's just too fragile. However, IF he could ever get and stay healthy, he would be the magic elixir that we need, for sure.

 

[e_blazer]

The Oden factor: a built in excuse to tread water. "We don't have to make big changes, we'll be fine once Oden returns and saves us!"

And just exactly what would you have the Blazers do? They have no cap space. Their highest paid player is untradeable because of his knees. There's at least a reasonable chance that Oden will be able to play again at a high level and, if that happens, the Blazers have a shot at being a contender. Would you have them dump that chance in favor of a total rebuild?

 

[jaspitzer]

Oden or BUST!


.... An amnesty clause could help too

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Oden or BUST!


.... An amnesty clause could help too

Yep--there's our formula for success.

1) Oden gets healthy
2) Roy removed via amnesty clause
3) Felton & Wallace party like it's 2009
4) ...
5) Profit!!

 

[STOMP]

He was solid for sure, but I remember 1 single game against the Bulls where I would call his performance "dominant." His PER was great, but it didn't exactly translate into having Dwight Howard patrolling the paint in the real world. This team wasn't a contender with him before his most recent surgery. I fail to see how adding yet another microfracture is going to make him any better or suddenly elevate them into contenders.

did you happen to catch 38 year old micro-fracture recipient Jason Kidd in the playoffs and finals? The Mavs don't make it out of the first round without him. The bad thing about MF surgery is that it keeps the athlete out for a long period of rehab. The good thing is that the fix typically doesn't take away from the athlete's physical ability.

In the real world the last time Greg was playing he was sharing the center PT with Joel. For his time on the court, he was rebounding, blocking shots, and shooting the ball at a higher rate then 2009-10 All-NBA 1st teamer Dwight Howard. Of course GO was coming off of a summer where he'd worked out very hard and was in solid Bball shape, where as when he comes back this fall he'll have some work to do to reach that same level. But I expect that if he's on the court he will be a major force like he's always been... dude has a lot of advantages to work with.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

What's the holdup on picking up his option?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

What's the holdup on picking up his option?

Who says his knee doesn't spontaneously combust during a workout tomorrow?

Best to wait until the last possible second, just in case.

 

[PapaG]

Who says his knee doesn't spontaneously combust during a workout tomorrow?

Best to wait until the last possible second, just in case.

Even if that happens, some people still won't give up on him.

The delay is a bit odd, though, as is Buchanon saying management is going to meet again today to make a final decision.

Here is the decision, IMO. Just do it, because if you don't and Oden suddenly emerges as a player somewhere else without the Blazers even offering a Q.O., Paul Allen may as well just sell the team.