The Official CJ McCollum Thread

[Scalma]

As a small market team you have to believe in it.

What’s up Neil?

 

[Labinot41]

Bill Simmons ranked CJ 29th in his trade value rankings. He should bring in more than Otto freaking Porter.

Durant has consistently called him one of the toughest players to guard one on one. He's in a slump. He'll bust out of it.

I want us to trade the guy but he's a lot better than some of you think he is.

That's a very long slump.. At some point you have to realize this is what you get from him most of the Time

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Bill Simmons ranked CJ 29th in his trade value rankings. He should bring in more than Otto freaking Porter.

Durant has consistently called him one of the toughest players to guard one on one. He's in a slump. He'll bust out of it.

I want us to trade the guy but he's a lot better than some of you think he is.

Among others, Simmons has Klay, Kyrie, Middleton, and Tobias Harris below CJ in those rankings. That seems crazy to me.

If CJ can return a lot more in trade than I think...great. Doesn't change the fact that I think we'd be better as a team if (for example) we swapped him and Harkless for Otto Porter and Jeremy Lamb. Or him and Aminu for Blake Griffin and Reggie Bullock. Or...who knows what other combo of a decent off-ball SG and above average starting forward might be available. Point is, I have no doubt that a CJ trade can lead to the team being more effective and balanced.

 

[blue9]

I said My problem/s with the team were mostly ET and Stotts.
Not that Id be against trading CJ if it was the right deal.

I was just using your quote to make a point about defense/CJ in the CJ thread, not arguing a point with ya! One of the major gripes about CJ is his defense (and rightfully so), but if we actually had a good coach maybe his shortcomings (pun intended) could be mitigated? Maybe not. I'd just like to see our players under a different/better coach so we have a better idea of what they're capable of before we go trading them. Defense is far more dependent on 5 players working as a single unit than it is about individuals doing it on their own.
CJ is a great player - it'd be a shame to not get full value in a trade.

 

[bobf]

I like CJ and want to keep him. But I do think CJ is unfortunately a bit overrated. His defense is terrible and he is a bit of a black hole once he gets the ball. While he is normally more efficient scorer than Dame on offense and can get his own shot more easily, he is still no where near Dame overall on offense because he doesn't really make other players better. Nevertheless, at the end of games where we have the lead, CJ provides a steady stream efficient 2-point scoring. In other words CJ does fulfill a role that compliments Dame to some extent.

 

[Bruno_Sabino]

lol... i just cant believe how much a lof of you guys same bs about CJ. Cj is a excelent scorer, he's a very good ball handle, and he's still adjusting himself into a new role on the team. He's not gonna be trade this season. Simple.

 

[Hoopguru]

CJ has the third best FG% for shooting guards.
Even his 3pt % as low as it is currently is higher than guys like Mitchell form Utah.
His FT shooting is decent as compared to many others.
I think he will and IS improving passing the ball.

 

[wizenheimer]

While he is normally more efficient scorer than Dame on offense and can get his own shot more easily

you're going to need to define "scorer", because the way I look at it, whether you call it scoring efficiency or shooting efficiency, Dame has been better in each of the last 4 seasons

TS%

2015-16: CJ .544....Dame .560
2016-17: CJ .585....Dame .586
2017-18: CJ .536....Dame .594
2018-19: CJ .542....Dame .595

points/FGA

2015-16: CJ 1.16....Dame 1.27
2016-17: CJ 1.27....Dame 1.36
2017-18: CJ 1.15....Dame 1.39
2018-19: CJ 1.16....Dame 1.38

clearly, Dame is more efficient

I'm also not sure what you mean by saying CJ can get his own shot more easily. He doesn't do it more efficiently though. Blazers Edge had an article at the end of last year that compared Dame and CJ by shot types using Synergy data. Dame tended to beat CJ in a lot of areas

points/possession

pick and roll: CJ 0.92.....Dame 1.07
isolation: CJ 1.00.....Dame 1.05
transition: CJ 0.96.....Dame 1.07
handoff: CJ 0.81.....Dame 1.14
off screen: CJ 0.96....Dame 1.04

the only area CJ bested Dame was in spot-up shots, where CJ had an elite 1.4 pts/possession (98th percentile) compared to Dame's anemic 0.98

https://www.blazersedge.com/2018/4/...all-hog-does-it-matter-portland-trail-blazers

seems like you're doing what a lot of CJ fans do and that's give him lots of credit for his one-on-one play when the truth is, he really isn't that good at it in terms of efficiency when compared to the rest of the league. CJ is only a little above average as a shooter and as a scorer (same thing?), but around Portland, apparently, there's a belief CJ is elite as a ball-handling scorer

 

[bobf]

you're going to need to define "scorer", because the way I look at it, whether you call it scoring efficiency or shooting efficiency, Dame has been better in each of the last 4 seasons

You're right. In terms of points efficiency Dame wins hands down. I should have said "shooter" instead of "scorer". C.J. is a more efficient shooter at any distance besides a layup. Dame more than offsets that by (a) getting fouled more (b) taking a higher ratio of 3's (c) more attacks to the rim.

Is C.J. really only slightly better than average when it comes to shooting efficiency at any distance? Or is it that he hardly gets fouled and takes too many mid-range compared to shots (layups and 3's) that would improve his points per shot?

 

[bobf]

I'm also not sure what you mean by saying CJ can get his own shot more easily.

It's just my "eye test" judgment watching them play... no stats to back that up. In an ISO situation where Blazers are down 1 point and one possession left, I might rather have C.J. than Dame take that shot. I feel like C.J. can create a step back 2 more easily. Really, neither of them seems good in that situation to my eye. Maybe even E.T. would do better. Also, C.J. seems like a choker whereas Dame is ice. Small sample but C.J. had been really bad in FT situations when it counted.

 

[oldmangrouch]

This is a big part of the reason I feel CJ and Dame don't compliment each other that well. Letting CJ dominate the ball doesn't make sense, as Dame is the more efficient scorer and superior playmaker. OTOH, if Dame dominates the ball, CJ has minimal value because he doesn't play well off the ball. How do you maximize their values if they are on the court together? This would be one of the advantages of making CJ the focal point of the second unit.

 

[hoopsjock]

This is a big part of the reason I feel CJ and Dame don't compliment each other that well. Letting CJ dominate the ball doesn't make sense, as Dame is the more efficient scorer and superior playmaker. OTOH, if Dame dominates the ball, CJ has minimal value because he doesn't play well off the ball. How do you maximize their values if they are on the court together? This would be one of the advantages of making CJ the focal point of the second unit.

But @wizenheimer just posted stats that show CJ is an elite spot up shooter. Shouldn't getting him set shots be the priority? That implies playing him off the ball. Maybe the problem is that he should be handling the ball less and just shooting off of passes rather than creating his own offense.

 

[dviss1]

Or like my trade proposal from earlier we could potentially have Porter, Mikal Bridges, and be able to use the full-MLE all while keeping our pick too. We'd also have the full bird rights on Wes so we would have an advantage in retaining him.

What was that? Link to the post?

 

[wizenheimer]

It's just my "eye test" judgment watching them play... no stats to back that up. In an ISO situation where Blazers are down 1 point and one possession left, I might rather have C.J. than Dame take that shot. I feel like C.J. can create a step back 2 more easily. Really, neither of them seems good in that situation to my eye. Maybe even E.T. would do better. Also, C.J. seems like a choker whereas Dame is ice. Small sample but C.J. had been really bad in FT situations when it counted.

I'm not sure how much weight to give the numbers, but 82games tracked clutch time stats for last season (4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points)...

FG%: Turner .222....CJ .402....Dame .451
eFG%: Turner .278....CJ .446....Dame .522 (regular season eFG%: CJ .506....Dame .519)
draw foul rate: Turner 10.0%....CJ 8.0%....Dame 13.3%
points/FGA: Turner 1.0....CJ 1.17....Dame 1.44

sure doesn't look like CJ and Turner were better options at clutch time than Dame

how does Dame compare to other 'elite' players

points/FGA:

Chris Paul 2.29 !!!
Paul George 1.62 (assisted on 76% of his FG's vs Dame at 17%)
Greek Freak 1.61 (39% assisted)
Lebron 1.53 (same assist rate as Dame with a FG% of .558)
Dame 1.44
Harden 1.41
Kyrie Irving 1.41
Jimmy Butler 1.35
Westbrook 1.09

*****************************************

This is a big part of the reason I feel CJ and Dame don't compliment each other that well. Letting CJ dominate the ball doesn't make sense, as Dame is the more efficient scorer and superior playmaker. OTOH, if Dame dominates the ball, CJ has minimal value because he doesn't play well off the ball. How do you maximize their values if they are on the court together? This would be one of the advantages of making CJ the focal point of the second unit.

well, last season CJ was elite as a spot-up shooter...in the 98th percentile. So if he dribbled less and went off screens more to shooting spots, his efficiency would probably improve

but I agree that Dame and CJ just don't complement each other well at all. Think about the great complementary pairings: MJ & Pippen; Drexler & Porter; Shaq & Kobe; Duncan & Manu; Lebron & Wade; Lebron & Kyrie; Curry & Durant....even Westbrook and PG

each pair had much different players with a much wider variety of skill-sets than Dame & CJ. Those pairings also also had two players who had all-star level talent and in most cases, elite talent. Dame & CJ are just too redundant to complement each other well. The only small guard pairing that was successful was Dumars and IT and both of those guys were elite on the defensive end and weren't saddled with a funky roster like Portland's

 

[Scalma]

But @wizenheimer just posted stats that show CJ is an elite spot up shooter. Shouldn't getting him set shots be the priority? That implies playing him off the ball. Maybe the problem is that he should be handling the ball less and just shooting off of passes rather than creating his own offense.

There’s really no reason why he couldn’t be used like Klay offensively. It’s great that he can dribble, and it even has its uses, but on this team? No thanks.

 

[hoopsjock]

What was that? Link to the post?

Going back to a trade posted from a Dallas forum, I think I've broken the code. It involves 4 teams but part of it could be broken into smaller trades if necessary, it was just easier to show as one.

Dallas gets CJ and Turner

Washington gets Harrison Barnes and Aminu

Phoenix gets Dennis Smith Jr

Portland gets Otto Porter, Wes Matthews, and Mikal Bridges

Dallas fans wanted to do this because they thought CJ would be a much better fit with Luka than DSJ is. Washington gets two quality players and saves a ton of future money. Phoenix gets a PG upgrade.

Portland completely reshapes their wing rotation with Dame and Nurk still the main focus of the starting lineup. Our starting lineup becomes pretty dang good with Dame, Wes, Harkless, Porter, and Nurk. Then we have Mikal on the 2nd unit for now ready to take over a starting spot next season since Wes is expiring. That gives us all kinds of switchability on defense.

Or the new one from today:

What if instead of Otto Porter we put Blake Griffin into my Dallas trade?

Dallas gets CJ and ET

Phoenix gets Dennis Smith Jr

Detroit gets Harrison Barnes, Swanigan, and Aminu

Portland gets Blake Griffin, Wes Matthews, and Mikal Bridges

 

[bobf]

I'm not sure how much weight to give the numbers, but 82games tracked clutch time stats for last season (4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points)...

That's good stuff! Ok, forget Turner. I know Dame's clutch stats are great from just watching. But specifically that last play of the game, ISO ball situation, where the defense kind of knows it's all Dame... that's when I think it drops way off for him. They rarely will give him a foul call at the rim and he doesn't create a great shot for himself that well. Again, no stats for that, just what seems to me.

CP3... that's ridiculous! I think it's because he plays slow & keeps all his options open... floater.. layup... pull back.. alley oop... pass to shooter. Impossible to defend. Dame commits too much too early. But Dame is such a student of the game, high IQ, I think he will continue to figure these things out. Every year I think "this is Dame's ceiling" and every year he proves me wrong.

 

[riverman]

I'm not sure how much weight to give the numbers, but 82games tracked clutch time stats for last season (4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points)...

FG%: Turner .222....CJ .402....Dame .451
eFG%: Turner .278....CJ .446....Dame .522 (regular season eFG%: CJ .506....Dame .519)
draw foul rate: Turner 10.0%....CJ 8.0%....Dame 13.3%
points/FGA: Turner 1.0....1.17....Dame 1.44

sure doesn't look like CJ and Turner were better options at clutch time than Dame

how does Dame compare to other 'elite' players

points/FGA:

Chris Paul 2.29 !!!
Paul George 1.62 (assisted on 76% of his FG's vs Dame at 17%)
Greek Freak 1.61 (39% assisted)
Lebron 1.53 (same assist rate as Dame with a FG% of .558)
Dame 1.44
Harden 1.41
Kyrie Irving 1.41
Jimmy Butler 1.35
Westbrook 1.09

*****************************************



well, last season CJ was elite as a spot-up shooter...in the 98th percentile. So if he dribbled less and went off screens more to shooting spots, his efficiency would probably improve

but I agree that Dame and CJ just don't complement each other well at all. Think about the great complementary pairings: MJ & Pippen; Drexler & Porter; Shaq & Kobe; Duncan & Manu; Lebron & Wade; Lebron & Kyrie; Curry & Durant....even Westbrook and PG

each pair had much different players with a much wider variety of skill-sets than Dame & CJ. Those pairings also also had two players who had all-star level talent and in most cases, elite talent. Dame & CJ are just too redundant to complement each other well. The only small guard pairing that was successful was Dumars and IT and both of those guys were elite on the defensive end and weren't saddled with a funky roster like Portland's

in ref to IT and Dumars...they could hand check back then and IT used to stand on the guy he was guarding's toe when defending him so he couldn't explode to the rim.....he'd hide that move...they got away with playing a lot more physical defense than today's game allows. Hard to compare those eras

 

[wizenheimer]

in ref to IT and Dumars...they could hand check back then and IT used to stand on the guy he was guarding's toe when defending him so he couldn't explode to the rim.....he'd hide that move...they got away with playing a lot more physical defense than today's game allows. Hard to compare those eras

yeah...it may be that those Pistons teams were the first to really go all in on the 'if-you-foul-all-over-the-floor-on-every-single-possession-on-and-off-the-ball-the-officials-stop-calling-it' defense.

 

[riverman]

I really want him as a big man coach

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

We need an APB on Mr. McCollum.

 

[Labinot41]

Fuck this brick Machine. I'm so done with him

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

He's a clone of Monta Ellis right now.

 

[Scalma]

He's a clone of Monta Ellis right now.

I wish. Ellis never made $25m.

 

[Scalma]

Honest question, what has CJ improved since his most improved season?

 

[craigehlo]

There’s really no reason why he couldn’t be used like Klay offensively.

Klay is 6' 7" and CJ is 6' 3". This is the reason he struggles against halfway decent defenses. We could use him like Klay, but he would still be meh.

He's a shorter Jamal Crawford making max money.

 

[craigehlo]

He's a clone of Monta Ellis right now.

Ellis had athleticism that CJ never had. Maybe he's Ellis after a couple knee surgeries.

 

[Scalma]

Klay is 6' 7" and CJ is 6' 3". This is the reason he struggles against halfway decent defenses. We could use him like Klay, but he would still be meh.

He's a shorter Jamal Crawford making max money.

JJ Redick then.

Points is, off the ball.

 

[craigehlo]

JJ Redick then.

Points is, off the ball.

If only he could shoot like JJ. We wouldn't be having this thread.

 

[CupWizier]

I wish. Ellis never made $25m.

How many players made 25 mil back when Ellis was playing in his prime? That's like comparing apples to oranges. Also, McCollum is a better player than Ellis.