The SEC Fix Is On

[ABM]

Well, it will be once Auburn eventually passes Oregon in the BCS standings.

Just watch.

 

[Natebishop3]

There's just no way. No way.

 

[ABM]

There's just no way. No way.

Probably not this week.

That said, the Ducks need a CONVINCING win over USC to win over those remaining doubters.......

 

[Natebishop3]

I'm not terribly worried about Auburn because they have to get past Alabama in their last game of the season. As long as the Ducks take care of business, Auburn shouldn't be a problem.

 

[Natebishop3]

Probably not this week.

That said, the Ducks need a CONVINCING win over USC to win over those remaining doubters.......

The Ducks are already ranked #1 in all the human polls and margin of victory isn't factored into the BCS so a convincing win over USC really doesn't make a difference.

 

[ABM]

The Ducks are already ranked #1 in all the human polls and margin of victory isn't factored into the BCS so a convincing win over USC really doesn't make a difference.

True dat.

That said, if both Auburn and Oregon run the table, I'd be concerned about the strength of schedules.............including that foreboding SEC bias.

 

[Natebishop3]

True dat.

That said, if both Auburn and Oregon run the table, I'd be concerned about the strength of schedules.............including that foreboding SEC bias.

If Oregon and Auburn both run the table, they will probably be facing off in the Championship game and ranking won't matter at that point.

 

[ABM]

If Oregon and Auburn both run the table, they will probably be facing off in the Championship game and ranking won't matter at that point.

Yet another very good point.

Thanks for that.

 

[Wheels]

I'm not terribly worried about Auburn because they have to get past Alabama in their last game of the season. As long as the Ducks take care of business, Auburn shouldn't be a problem.

Not only that they would have to get out of the SEC Championship game alive as well.

 

[Natebishop3]

Not only that they would have to get out of the SEC Championship game alive as well.

Yeah, and I'm still not convinced they will be able to get past Alabama in their final game of the season.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

It doesn't really matter. All that is important is the Ducks finish 2nd. That gets them to the national championship game.

Then they can earn the #1 ranking by winning the game.

 

[Natebishop3]

It doesn't really matter. All that is important is the Ducks finish 2nd. That gets them to the national championship game.

Then they can earn the #1 ranking by winning the game.

Pretty much.

 

[THE HCP]

I just don't want us to end up 3rd like last time!

 

[SlyPokerDog]

I just don't want us to end up 3rd like last time!

We shouldn't have chumped a home game. If we have taken care of bizniz we would have been in the championship game.

 

[rocketeer]

if auburn runs the table, they deserve to be ranked ahead of oregon. but oregon really has nothing to worry about. if they take care of their business, they will be in the title game.

 

[MickZagger]

I just don't want us to end up 3rd like last time!

We lost a home game to Stanford that year because of an onside kick in the 4th quarter. Flukey, but we still wouldn't have been in the title game had they gone undefeated that year.

 

[Wheels]

We lost a home game to Stanford that year because of an onside kick in the 4th quarter. Flukey, but we still wouldn't have been in the title game had they gone undefeated that year.

I dunno.. I dont remember who was 3rd in those rankings. But I would hope that an Undefeated Pac 10 team would have gotten in over a 1 loss Big XII team. I still hate that btw.. Nebraska who wasnt even champion of their own conference, got a chance to be champion of the nation.

 

[Natebishop3]

I dunno.. I dont remember who was 3rd in those rankings. But I would hope that an Undefeated Pac 10 team would have gotten in over a 1 loss Big XII team. I still hate that btw.. Nebraska who wasnt even champion of their own conference, got a chance to be champion of the nation.

They had two losses.

 

[Wheels]

They had two losses.

Nebraska did? I coulda swore they were undefeated till the Championship game then lost their last 2 games (including the Title game) So I meant 1 loss during the season sorry.

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

Well, it will be once Auburn eventually passes Oregon in the BCS standings.

Just watch.

It's not a fix, it's deserved and a product of Missouri beating Oklahoma and all of those Oklahoma #1 computer votes now sliding Auburn up to #1 in the computers while all of the human voters will replace Oklahoma with Auburn. So it is the same situation except Auburn gets even more votes because they had more room to go up with LSU also losing.

If Oklahoma had won, Auburn would have still been #2 in the computers and Oklahoma still #1 in the computers, and Oregon moving up to 0.93 with their computer rankings slowing going up now that they're playing through their Pac-10 schedule, they would have leapfrogged Oklahoma at 0.92. Now Auburn will be tied with Oregon at 0.93 and will likely deserve to win the percentage points due to beating a top 10 team while Oregon splattered yet another crappy team.

 

[ABM]

It's not a fix, it's deserved and a product of Missouri losing to Oklahoma and all of those Oklahoma #1 computer votes now sliding Auburn up to #1 in the computers while all of the human voters will replace Oklahoma with Auburn. So it is the same situation except Auburn gets even more votes because they had more room to go up with LSU also losing.

If Oklahoma had won, Auburn would have still been #2 in the computers and Oklahoma still #1 in the computers, and Oregon moving up to 0.93 with their computer rankings slowing going up now that they're playing through their Pac-10 schedule, they would have leapfrogged Oklahoma at 0.92. Now Auburn will be tied with Oregon at 0.93 and will likely deserve to win the percentage points due to beating a top 10 team while Oregon splattered yet another crappy team.

Oh, I hear ya. I was just relating to a seemingly ongoing perception................a certain, dare I say, bias emanating from the southeast, and the conference thereof. Trust me, I saw it in person the 12 years I lived in Atlanta.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

if auburn runs the table, they deserve to be ranked ahead of oregon. but oregon really has nothing to worry about. if they take care of their business, they will be in the title game.

No they don't. We'll have played every bit as tough a conference schedule. That leads me to the non conference schedule and Oregon traveled to TN (an SEC team) and kicked the living crap out of them. So let's see who Auburn played non conference- Arkansas State at home, Louisiana-Monroe at home and Chattanooga at home. Nope, UO will have a better strength of schedule even with PSU.

 

[oldmangrouch]

I think the handwriting is on the wall - or computer screen. Even if the Ducks run the table, the BCS isn't letting them have a whiff of the championship bowl.

Think I'm kidding?

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/columns/story?columnist=schlabach_mark&id=5724137

 

[ABM]

I think the handwriting is on the wall - or computer screen. Even if the Ducks run the table, the BCS isn't letting them have a whiff of the championship bowl.

Think I'm kidding?

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/columns/story?columnist=schlabach_mark&id=5724137

I've always liked the Sagarin's.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt10.htm


BTW, Blazers are 10th in the NBA...

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba1011.htm

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

I think the handwriting is on the wall - or computer screen. Even if the Ducks run the table, the BCS isn't letting them have a whiff of the championship bowl.

Think I'm kidding?

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/columns/story?columnist=schlabach_mark&id=5724137

Won't happen if the Ducks win out because,

1) they only have to get into the top 2 in order to make the championship, and when you're #1 in 2/3rds of the power of the BCS in the human polls, you're pretty much a lock to be in the top 2 by the end of the season when the computers and their statistical anamolies early in the season starts to balance itself out. And,

2) The Ducks actually only deserve to be 3-4 because they've been double-digit favorites for all but one of their games so far due to a BSU-like schedule thus far. So they should be undefeated right now. The fact of the matter is that 3 of their 4 toughest games are coming up in the next 4 weeks, so up until now Cal was the only game that was a single digit point spread. Now their schedule is harder than Auburn and Michigan State from here on out, so they'll either pass those teams on the computers or move up from 8th to 2nd or 3rd and pretty much blow everyone else out since they're leading the human polls. So the BCS is a problem for Missouri, Michigan State, TCU and BSU since those guys don't have schedules that will allow them to catch the Ducks or Auburn.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Won't happen if the Ducks win out because,

1) they only have to get into the top 2 in order to make the championship, and when you're #1 in 2/3rds of the power of the BCS in the human polls, you're pretty much a lock to be in the top 2 by the end of the season when the computers and their statistical anamolies early in the season starts to balance itself out. And,

2) The Ducks actually only deserve to be 3-4 because they've been double-digit favorites for all but one of their games so far due to a BSU-like schedule thus far. So they should be undefeated right now. The fact of the matter is that 3 of their 4 toughest games are coming up in the next 4 weeks, so up until now Cal was the only game that was a single digit point spread. Now their schedule is harder than Auburn and Michigan State from here on out, so they'll either pass those teams on the computers or move up from 8th to 2nd or 3rd and pretty much blow everyone else out since they're leading the human polls. So the BCS is a problem for Missouri, Michigan State, TCU and BSU since those guys don't have schedules that will allow them to catch the Ducks or Auburn.

It's very possible--check the math.

Let's just suppose, for a moment, that Oregon, Auburn, Missouri, Michigan State and TCU all make it through their seasons undefeated (very possible). Then let's also suppose that Oregon is a unanimous #1 in the coaches and Harris polls at season's end, and Auburn and Missouri split the #2 & #3 votes. In this situation, there would be solid possibility that Oregon could average fifth or lower in the computer rankings--especially if Ohio State also wins out. So, theoretically, we could have something like:

Team...Coaches...Harris...Comp...Average
Auburn---.950---.950---.970---.957
Mizzou---.930---.930---.990---.950
Oregon---1.00---1.00---.840---.947

Nothing here--short of Oregon being a unanimous #1--is unreasonable. In fact, Auburn & Missouri will probably take some of Oregon's #1 votes if they continue undefeated, further strengthening the possibility of Oregon being #1 in the polls and #3 in the BCS rankings. Oh well--Ducks-Spartans will be a pretty good Rose Bowl.

 

[tlongII]

Won't happen if the Ducks win out because,

1) they only have to get into the top 2 in order to make the championship, and when you're #1 in 2/3rds of the power of the BCS in the human polls, you're pretty much a lock to be in the top 2 by the end of the season when the computers and their statistical anamolies early in the season starts to balance itself out. And,

2) The Ducks actually only deserve to be 3-4 because they've been double-digit favorites for all but one of their games so far due to a BSU-like schedule thus far. So they should be undefeated right now. The fact of the matter is that 3 of their 4 toughest games are coming up in the next 4 weeks, so up until now Cal was the only game that was a single digit point spread. Now their schedule is harder than Auburn and Michigan State from here on out, so they'll either pass those teams on the computers or move up from 8th to 2nd or 3rd and pretty much blow everyone else out since they're leading the human polls. So the BCS is a problem for Missouri, Michigan State, TCU and BSU since those guys don't have schedules that will allow them to catch the Ducks or Auburn.

The Ducks haven't played Cal yet.

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

The Ducks haven't played Cal yet.

Oops. My bad, their sister school Stanford was who I was thinking of there. Obviously the only decent school UO has played thus far so it was pretty easy to figure out.

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

It's very possible--check the math.

Let's just suppose, for a moment, that Oregon, Auburn, Missouri, Michigan State and TCU all make it through their seasons undefeated (very possible). Then let's also suppose that Oregon is a unanimous #1 in the coaches and Harris polls at season's end, and Auburn and Missouri split the #2 & #3 votes. In this situation, there would be solid possibility that Oregon could average fifth or lower in the computer rankings--especially if Ohio State also wins out. So, theoretically, we could have something like:

Team...Coaches...Harris...Comp...Average
Auburn---.950---.950---.970---.957
Mizzou---.930---.930---.990---.950
Oregon---1.00---1.00---.840---.947

Nothing here--short of Oregon being a unanimous #1--is unreasonable. In fact, Auburn & Missouri will probably take some of Oregon's #1 votes if they continue undefeated, further strengthening the possibility of Oregon being #1 in the polls and #3 in the BCS rankings. Oh well--Ducks-Spartans will be a pretty good Rose Bowl.

The only problem I'd have with that is you're assuming Auburn and Mizzou could have a .970 and .990 in the computers, which means Mizzou is ranked #1 in every poll but 2 and are #2 in those and Auburn is #1 in those 2 and then #2 in the other 4. It's like coming up with a scenario where we get CP3 and Melo in a 5 team deal where somehow the salaries and team needs all line up.

While I can see those two teams up near the top as one scenario, you're also now saying Oregon is only going to move up to .840, which means they're like 5th in the computer rankings. They're 8th because they've had Portland State, New Mexico and WSU as half of their season to go on and only one decent team in Stanford.

Auburn played 3 top-15 schools so far and have their cakewalk games coming up (like Chattanooga). Mizzou only plays one more ranked team in Nebraska and then maybe someone decent in their Big-12 championship game. But neither their schedules or the other teams that are in those 3rd-7th computer polls have schedules like Oregon. So Oregon should move way up from here and start biting into many of those computers. Therefore they really do control their own destiny, but there are stranger things that could happen (like people putting Auburn #1 over Oregon in the human polls just because).

 

[rocketeer]

No they don't. We'll have played every bit as tough a conference schedule. That leads me to the non conference schedule and Oregon traveled to TN (an SEC team) and kicked the living crap out of them. So let's see who Auburn played non conference- Arkansas State at home, Louisiana-Monroe at home and Chattanooga at home. Nope, UO will have a better strength of schedule even with PSU.

oregon has a tougher nonconference schedule. auburn has a far tougher complete schedule. auburn has beaten 4 teams that are currently ranked. oregon has beaten one. then auburn still has a road game against alabama and the sec title game while oregon has usc and arizona. i just don't see how oregon even has an argument if we're comparing what they've done thus far. if auburn wins out, there's nothing oregon could do to be more impressive.

and like i said, no one has a shot at catching oregon for #2, so it really doesn't even matter.