Further
Guy
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According to Courtside, Nate has said that he plans on a ten man rotation. The rotation would include Miller, Blake, Roy, Rudy, Batum, Webster, LMA, Outlaw, Oden and Przybilla. Regardless of who he decides will be starters, these are the players that Nate is currently planning on giving consistent minutes.
But, as time goes on and the season progresses, I expect this rotation to become more and more lopsided in favor of certain players, and eventually some may even find themselves on the outside of the rotation. I could see Nate slowly moving more towards a nine man rotation and even eight when the team is really gearing up for the playoffs. Very few teams are able to run a 10 man rotation over a long period of time because it often results in fewer minutes for everyone, and the more talented and deserving players feel they are getting screwed.
So as we analyze which play will be squeezed out over the course of the season, I want to start by ordering these ten players in two ways. 1) most to least talented today. 2) most to least expected talent. As Nate decides who to play, he will not only be deciding based on who is best at the moment, but also which players he sees as keys to the future of the Blazers.
You may agree or disagree with my ordering, but this is how I see those two lists.
1) most to least talented today
Roy
LMA
Miller
Oden
Rudy
Przybilla
Batum
Outlaw
Blake
Webster
2) most to least expected talent
So this is ordering the players based on where I think their talent would be in a year or two.
Roy
Oden
LMA
Batum
Rudy
Miller
Webster
Outlaw
Przybilla
Blake
When I look at those two lists, I notice that Blake is one of our lesser talented players at the moment without much of an upside. Blake is very worthy of playing BU PG and could be a very good BU PG. But the problem becomes that the minutes that are available may force Nate to try to find more talented (current or expected) players more minutes, and the question is, where do those minutes come from.
This will not apply to the very start of the season, but I think as time progresses, we will see more and more of Blakes minutes being reduced. Here's why. When Nate is looking for a good distributor, he will go with Miller. But when he is looking for the things that Blake is best at like shooting, I think he will start to opt for Rudy. If Nate is to play Roy at SG for 35mpg which should be guaranteed, then that only leaves 13mpg for Rudy as BU SG. And Batum and Webster both have height and length that rudy does not have making SF a difficult position for Rudy. Also, Batum and Webster are both still young with a lot of upside, so taking their minutes will also cause problems and potentially stunt a future major contributor. But at PG, Rudy can already shoot the ball and spread the floor incredibly well, and between he and Roy, they should be able to pull stints without a true PG. When a true PG is needed, in comes Miller.
Blake is just in a position where he is one of the lesser talented players at the moment with little future value. It will be more important to keep other players happy and more likely to produce wins to play other players. I say the big squeeze will happen to Blake.
But, as time goes on and the season progresses, I expect this rotation to become more and more lopsided in favor of certain players, and eventually some may even find themselves on the outside of the rotation. I could see Nate slowly moving more towards a nine man rotation and even eight when the team is really gearing up for the playoffs. Very few teams are able to run a 10 man rotation over a long period of time because it often results in fewer minutes for everyone, and the more talented and deserving players feel they are getting screwed.
So as we analyze which play will be squeezed out over the course of the season, I want to start by ordering these ten players in two ways. 1) most to least talented today. 2) most to least expected talent. As Nate decides who to play, he will not only be deciding based on who is best at the moment, but also which players he sees as keys to the future of the Blazers.
You may agree or disagree with my ordering, but this is how I see those two lists.
1) most to least talented today
Roy
LMA
Miller
Oden
Rudy
Przybilla
Batum
Outlaw
Blake
Webster
2) most to least expected talent
So this is ordering the players based on where I think their talent would be in a year or two.
Roy
Oden
LMA
Batum
Rudy
Miller
Webster
Outlaw
Przybilla
Blake
When I look at those two lists, I notice that Blake is one of our lesser talented players at the moment without much of an upside. Blake is very worthy of playing BU PG and could be a very good BU PG. But the problem becomes that the minutes that are available may force Nate to try to find more talented (current or expected) players more minutes, and the question is, where do those minutes come from.
This will not apply to the very start of the season, but I think as time progresses, we will see more and more of Blakes minutes being reduced. Here's why. When Nate is looking for a good distributor, he will go with Miller. But when he is looking for the things that Blake is best at like shooting, I think he will start to opt for Rudy. If Nate is to play Roy at SG for 35mpg which should be guaranteed, then that only leaves 13mpg for Rudy as BU SG. And Batum and Webster both have height and length that rudy does not have making SF a difficult position for Rudy. Also, Batum and Webster are both still young with a lot of upside, so taking their minutes will also cause problems and potentially stunt a future major contributor. But at PG, Rudy can already shoot the ball and spread the floor incredibly well, and between he and Roy, they should be able to pull stints without a true PG. When a true PG is needed, in comes Miller.
Blake is just in a position where he is one of the lesser talented players at the moment with little future value. It will be more important to keep other players happy and more likely to produce wins to play other players. I say the big squeeze will happen to Blake.
