The trade exception

[hoopsjock]

Problem with that is teams probably wouldn’t be as motivated to dump a $6m contract as one closer to $13m, especially not someone that could actually help us.

I don't necessarily think that's true. If the Rockets have a chance at LeBron they are going to have to dump a bunch of people like a PJ Tucker at about $8 million or the 76ers will have to dump Bayless at $8.5 million. I know those aren't exactly great players but those are just two examples from the top of my head. Philly would probably include the 26th pick or give us TLC, Korkmaz, or Richaun Holmes with Bayless as incentive to take him. I'd probably take Bayless on for any of those.

I don't know, I just think there is room to be creative like this instead of just limiting it to a short list.

 

[illmatic99]

When you're stuck in a hole, the first thing to do is put down the shovel, not keep digging.

You don't double-down on a flawed team and hope to round it out with a high salary roster-reject, that somebody was dying to get rid of for cap relief -- that player is unlikely to solve the foundational problems that exist on this squad. Now on the other hand, if there are significant roster moves to fix those foundational issues (the CJ/Damian conundrum for instance) and then you use the TPE to take on the right kind of role-player, I'm all for it, but just taking on more salary, because, "Fuck it, why not" has disaster written all over it.

I'd rather follow the Rockets/Celtics/Raptors route for a retool rather than Philly's scorched earth approach.

 

[Nikolokolus]

How would it be a disaster? If we're already in the luxury tax the only thing it hurts is Allen's wallet. We're pretty much stuck with bad contracts for the next two seasons anyway. Most of the guys mentioned don't have more than a couple years left on their deals. If it helps us get an asset such as a draft pick or another rotational player. Sure, it probably won't lead to the missing piece but if we get an asset like a draft pick too with it then that could potentially help too.

Eventually, you'd like to give yourself the option of getting out of cap-hell, or at least give yourself more options for tweaking the roster as needed. So unless you are already vying for a title (which this team is clearly not), then adding huge salary obligations, limits your flexibility even more. Chrissakes, didn't we already go through this same fucking debate on the board two years ago during the "Summer of Turner and MyLe"? How do people forget these lessons so quickly?

 

[Nikolokolus]

I'd rather follow the Rockets/Celtics/Raptors route for a retool rather than Philly's scorched earth approach.

Fine. But what has that got to do with adding a player that some team is willing to jettison for simple cap relief, and putting yourself so far over the cap line that you almost guarantee you're going to have to dump players for nothing (or with picks attached) in a year or two, just to get back to a saner cap situation? The difference between the Blazers and those teams you mention is that they are right there pushing for a conference championship -- they're on the cusp, the Blazers are not (and they don't generally have as many negative assets as we do).

 

[hoopsjock]

I don't think they would do Middleton straight across for CJ, Middleton is very good, on a really nice contract and relatively young - would you do the trade you proposed if you were a Bucks fan?

To be fair, that post was made back when the Bucks were really struggling and Middleton was having a very down year.

 

[illmatic99]

Fine. But what has that got to do with adding a player that some team is willing to jettison for simple cap relief, and putting yourself so far over the cap line that you almost guarantee you're going to have to dump players for nothing (or with picks attached) in a year or two, just to get back to a saner cap situation? The difference between the Blazers and those teams you mention is that they are right there pushing for a conference championship -- they're on the cusp, the Blazers are not (and they don't generally have as many negative assets as we do).

Houston won 55 games last year and went to the WCSF, a single season after they were swept out of the playoffs as an 8th seed after getting back a more focused Harden, adding role players like Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson, along with a new coach. A 14 win jump is nothing to turn your nose up at. And it led to them getting CP3 the summer after. There are other ways to jump into the mix especially after seeing GS showing cracks this year. It's not easy to make the finals 4, 5, 6 years in a row.

 

[hoopsjock]

Eventually, you'd like to give yourself the option of getting out of cap-hell, or at least give yourself more options for tweaking the roster as needed. So unless you are already vying for a title (which this team is clearly not), then adding huge salary obligations, limits your flexibility even more. Chrissakes, didn't we already go through this same fucking debate on the board two years ago during the "Summer of Turner and MyLe"? How do people forget these lessons so quickly?

But not using it doesn't get us out of cap-hell, we are still in cap-hell whether we use it or not. What options do you get by not using it? Aminu is the only player of significance whose contract ends next year so all of the big contracts are here for two years anyway. Like I mentioned, the longest contract possible would be three years but most likely one or two.

 

[hoopsjock]

Fine. But what has that got to do with adding a player that some team is willing to jettison for simple cap relief, and putting yourself so far over the cap line that you almost guarantee you're going to have to dump players for nothing (or with picks attached) in a year or two, just to get back to a saner cap situation? The difference between the Blazers and those teams you mention is that they are right there pushing for a conference championship -- they're on the cusp, the Blazers are not (and they don't generally have as many negative assets as we do).

All of those guys and our bad contracts come off the books in two years. There will be no doomsday scenario like you present.

 

[illmatic99]

But not using it doesn't get us out of cap-hell, we are still in cap-hell whether we use it or not. What options do you get by not using it? Aminu is the only player of significance whose contract ends next year so all of the big contracts are here for two years anyway. Like I mentioned, the longest contract possible would be three years but most likely one or two.

Exactly. Getting a 2 yr player with 25 or so mil left on his deal, and one that expires along with Dame/CJ is not the same as signing ET to a 70 mil deal for 4 yrs

 

[Nikolokolus]

All of those guys and our bad contracts come off the books in two years. There will be no doomsday scenario like you present.

Presumably Nurkic is going to get paid this summer correct? Ed Davis? Etc.?

 

[tester551]

Houston won 55 games last year and went to the WCSF, a single season after they were swept out of the playoffs as an 8th seed after getting back a more focused Harden, adding role players like Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson, along with a new coach. A 14 win jump is nothing to turn your nose up at. And it led to them getting CP3 the summer after. There are other ways to jump into the mix especially after seeing GS showing cracks this year. It's not easy to make the finals 4, 5, 6 years in a row.

And how did they add Gordon/Anderson? That's right - they had cap space to do so.
The situations are not comparable.

 

[tester551]

But not using it doesn't get us out of cap-hell, we are still in cap-hell whether we use it or not. What options do you get by not using it? Aminu is the only player of significance whose contract ends next year so all of the big contracts are here for two years anyway. Like I mentioned, the longest contract possible would be three years but most likely one or two.

The difference is the cost to the 'business' finances of the Blazers.

You're thinking like a fan - not a business owner. People love to spend everyone else's money.

 

[hoopsjock]

Presumably Nurkic is going to get paid this summer correct? Ed Davis? Etc.?

So you are already assuming those will be bad signings? Why can't we sign Ed to a one to three year deal or make a move that replaces him? How about a four year deal for Nurk with the 4th year a team option?

 

[hoopsjock]

The difference is the cost to the 'business' finances of the Blazers.

You're thinking like a fan - not a business owner. People love to spend everyone else's money.

Dude, that wasn't even the point of the conversation. He said not using it gives us more options and flexibility to tweak the roster and get out of cap hell. You have failed to provide an example of how.

 

[tester551]

Dude, that wasn't even the point of the conversation. He said not using it gives us more options and flexibility to tweak the roster and get out of cap hell. You have failed to provide an example of how.

You were arguing that we ought to use it. I'm pointing out the major benefit for not using the TPE is financial. Cost ALWAYS enters into the equation when talking about flexibility.

An owner may say no to several moves strictly because of finances (hindering flexibility). Your argument is that we're in cap hell, so why not be in further cap hell ignores the ownership finances. If we take on more salary for a questionable move now, there's a high likelihood that ownership will shoot down chances at other opportunities in the future.

 

[hoopsjock]

You were arguing that we ought to use it. I'm pointing out the major benefit for not using the TPE is financial. Cost ALWAYS enters into the equation when talking about flexibility.

An owner may say no to several moves strictly because of finances (hindering flexibility). Your argument is that we're in cap hell, so why not be in further cap hell ignores the ownership finances. If we take on more salary for a questionable move now, there's a high likelihood that ownership will shoot down chances at other opportunities in the future.

Nope, still doesn't provide an answer. You're also assuming the TPE move would be questionable and that the future move would be better and more cost effective.

 

[Nikolokolus]

So you are already assuming those will be bad signings? Why can't we sign Ed to a one to three year deal or make a move that replaces him? How about a four year deal for Nurk with the 4th year a team option?

I didn't say "bad" but once you add them in to the equation of the team's cap, the sum total could be crippling for the next couple of years, and the window to contend is shrinking as Damian approaches thirty and the end of his current deal.

It's starting to come down to timing: An increasingly impatient Damian mixed with a capped out team that has failed to compete in the playoffs the past couple of seasons, with few avenues for making significant improvement -- They're not one piece away, and definitely not from the pool of players likely to be available in a salary dump.

 

[hoopsjock]

I didn't say "bad" but once you add them in to the equation of the team's cap, the sum total could be crippling for the next couple of years, and the window to contend is shrinking as Damian approaches thirty and the end of his current deal.

It's starting to come down to timing: An increasingly impatient Damian mixed with a capped out team that has failed to compete in the playoffs the past couple of seasons, with few avenues for making significant improvement -- They're not one piece away, and definitely not from the pool of players likely to be available in a salary dump.

No one said they were one piece away (except maybe Kingspeed ha ha) but lets look at it from a flexibility standpoint:

Summer of 2018: Already over the cap with 4 free agents. re-signing Nurk makes luxury tax a foregone conclusion. This is a good thing in our situation. The last two years we've been so concerned about staying out of the luxury tax that it has completely limited our situation. We weren't able to use the MLE last summer or make many moves because they wanted to stay under that line. Staying under that line, short of a miracle trade, isn't an option this year. You mentioned wanting to appease Dame. I believe Allen will do so by going into the tax for him. There are a couple of things that stay the same whether we use the TPE or not and that is that we'd have the tax-MLE to sign a free agent and the 24th pick in the draft. Trades can happen under either scenario. So that leaves using the TPE's as simply adding more money to this year but could be the difference in making this team better or remaining relatively the same.

Summer of 2019: Once again assuming Nurkic is re-signed and no miracle trades to get out of bad contracts are made, we are still over the cap. We have our 2019 1st round pick, a 2nd rounder (via whichever pick is better between Minnesota and LA Lakers), and the tax-MLE. Aminu is the only major free agent. If we don't use the TPE this summer it doesn't give us more options this summer, once again it just puts us further into the tax then we would have (unless we used it on a guy that only has one year left on his deal in which case he'd be off the books then). So where am I missing that next summer would have better options if we didn't use the TPE? We still have our picks and the tax-MLE available in either scenario. The contracts of Turner, Leonard, and Harkless all would have one more year left which may make them more valuable during the season as expiring contracts. If we just put Courtney Lee in as our TPE trade then he would also have one more year left at this point.

Summer of 2020: Lee, Turner, Leonard, and Harkless are now all off the books. If Olshey planned things similar to the summer of 2015 where most/all trades and signings lined up to end this season (for example re-sign Davis in 2018 to a two year deal) we'd still have Dame, CJ, Nurk, Collins, Swanigan, and our 2018 and 2019 draft picks on the team and would be back to having as much flexibility as possible when two players like Dame and CJ make over $60 million. Using the TPE's back in 2018 did nothing to change flexibility at any point in this process.

 

[Sarni]

Courtney Lee
Wilson Chandler
Terrence Ross
Danny Green
Alec Burks
Jordan Clarkson
Jeremy Lin
Tony Snell

That’s pretty much the list for the Crabbe TPE.

That’s an incredibly grim read and I would be very disappointed if we acquired any of them thinking that it would make us much better.

 

[KingSpeed]

That’s an incredibly grim read and I would be very disappointed if we acquired any of them thinking that it would make us much better.

Jeremy Lin is better than Napier
Danny Green is better than Pat C

 

[Scalma]

That’s an incredibly grim read and I would be very disappointed if we acquired any of them thinking that it would make us much better.

Literally all those guys would make our bench better. The only question is would it be worth the money for Paul, is the upgrade significant enough, or are there better players that’d also come cheaper in FA?

 

[hoopsjock]

Literally all those guys would make our bench better. The only question is would it be worth the money for Paul, is the upgrade significant enough, or are there better players that’d also come cheaper in FA?

Yeah, if we're looking at it realistically adding Courtney Lee and Wayne Ellington to the bench while re-signing Nurk and Davis would make our 2nd unit Baldwin/Lee/Ellington/Collins (or Aminu)/Davis.

That might be one of the best benches in the league.

 

[Scalma]

Yeah, if we're looking at it realistically adding Courtney Lee and Wayne Ellington to the bench while re-signing Nurk and Davis would make our 2nd unit Baldwin/Lee/Ellington/Collins (or Aminu)/Davis.

That might be one of the best benches in the league.

Yeah Ellington is my number one target but I feel like most playoff teams could use him as well. He’s really tight with Ed though so maybe that would help. Hezonja seems like an Olshey target too. He’s also close with Nurkic. Usually these relationships wouldn’t matter as much, but when you’re the Blazers, any advantage counts lol.

 

[CupWizier]

I would contact the Clippers and see if they are interested in trading Tobias Harris for our TPE and ? If they aren't interested then maybe see if Denver gets Wilson Chandler to opt in and then trade the TPE and ? for him. Either team would get huge tax relief and an asset or two. I would also look to try and sign Gerald Henderson to a reasonable contract. Adding Harris/Chandler along with Henderson would definitely help our bench and give the team a lot of flexibility.

 

[Labinot41]

Dame and Cj combined 60 Million in 2020, add Nurkic's Contract 12-15 probably, add Ed's Contract 8 probably and 5 Million from collins and Swanigan means we probably have a payroll around 85 million for 6 Players, Yeah good luck Neil

 

[hoopsjock]

I would contact the Clippers and see if they are interested in trading Tobias Harris for our TPE and ? If they aren't interested then maybe see if Denver gets Wilson Chandler to opt in and then trade the TPE and ? for him. Either team would get huge tax relief and an asset or two. I would also look to try and sign Gerald Henderson to a reasonable contract. Adding Harris/Chandler along with Henderson would definitely help our bench and give the team a lot of flexibility.

Tobias makes too much for the TPE and you can't combine it with anything salary wise to make it work, therefore no player making over $13 million can be had with the TPE no matter how you work the trade.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

I would try to trade it to a team that needs to clear space to try to sign some big free agent. Trade it for a guy who only has one year left on his contract. In return the club that benefits makes a second trade; someone good to us for someone like Layman. Or if they are really good we give them a draft pick also.

 

[BonesJones]

Tobias makes too much for the TPE and you can't combine it with anything salary wise to make it work, therefore no player making over $13 million can be had with the TPE no matter how you work the trade.

I like that you will have pointed out people not understanding the CBA. It was mostly me last year. And now you do it too me..

Honest question: Is there any part of the CBA you don't know?

 

[CupWizier]

Tobias makes too much for the TPE and you can't combine it with anything salary wise to make it work, therefore no player making over $13 million can be had with the TPE no matter how you work the trade.

then Chandler is the target. Makes more sense than taking Faried as he serves no real purpose and they supposedly have been trying to off load him for the past couple seasons

 

[CupWizier]

I like that you will have pointed out people not understanding the CBA. It was mostly me last year. And now you do it too me..

Honest question: Is there any part of the CBA you don't know?

all you need to do is go to CBAFAQ and it's all there to be had. I use to spend a lot of time researching it but it became old after awhile and not that important to me.