The Trail Blazers, and the promise and peril of 'pretty good'

[Strenuus]

With the 3rd-highest payroll, we should have the 3rd-best team in the NBA, not a "pretty good" team. Olshey accomplished nothing special.

By that logic, the yankees and dodgers should always have the best teams.

And we should have been worst than Philly... by your logic.

 

[BlazerWookee]

Good Read - the thing that stood out for last years team and holds true for this years team, is, - "THEIR WHOLE WAS BIGGER THAN THE SUM OF IT'S PARTS"

And what holds true for Mr. and Mrs. HCP is that "HER HOLE IS BIGGER THAN SOME OF HIS PARTS!"

 

[jlprk]

By that logic, the yankees and dodgers should always have the best teams.

And we should have been worst than Philly... by your logic.

By the logic of you guys--judging Olshey's giant July giant raises merely on their potential years from now--the Dodgers and Yankees should get the most praise each year of all teams simply because they spend so much. Instead, the Olshey praise should wait till he earns it.

 

[Strenuus]

By the logic of you guys--judging Olshey's giant July giant raises merely on their potential years from now--the Dodgers and Yankees should get the most praise each year of all teams simply because they spend so much. Instead, the Olshey praise should wait till he earns it.

Thanks for lumping me in there without even hearing my side of it and just assuming I think that. Really, though, well done.

 

[HailBlazers]

This third highest payroll thing is a farce. It's a really superficial way of looking at things.

Wait a year or two until the league normalizes to the new cap. It was just coincidental that we had so many RFAs come up for new contracts in the same year.

Take next season for example, UTA (currently at 84 mil) will max out Hayward, Gobert, and Favors. George Hill will get over 15 mil/yr. And they still will be paying over 10 mil each to a decrepit Joe Johnson and oft injured Alec Burks. That will bring them to 110 mil for just 6 guys on a mostly mediocre roster.

UTA is just an example. Minny, BOS, OKC, CHA, etc etc etc will all be in the same boat. MEM committed almost 150 mil to Parsons and Conley alone. This idea that salaries define expectations would be fine were it not for this massive jump in the cap. It distorts the perceptions a bit.

Chicken Dinner. Man I can't wait for the season to start.

 

[Denny Crane]

When and if that happens, praise Olshey then, not now.

I'll praise him for giving us the best possible chance, given the circumstances. There's not much more we can ask.

The guy who writes the checks seems to be fine with it.

 

[Cippy91]

By the logic of you guys--judging Olshey's giant July giant raises merely on their potential years from now--the Dodgers and Yankees should get the most praise each year of all teams simply because they spend so much. Instead, the Olshey praise should wait till he earns it.

Tunchi and you live together or something? I smell pessimism

 

[Denny Crane]

Would we be worse off without Turner and Ezeli?

Durant wasn't coming here. That's not on NO.

 

[Strenuus]

Would we be worse off without Turner and Ezeli?

Durant wasn't coming here. That's not on NO.

It's probably some of the same people who think the Aaron Afflalo trade was horrible because they knew Wes, our Iron Man, was going to get hurt.

 

[BonesJones]

With the 3rd-highest payroll, we should have the 3rd-best team in the NBA, not a "pretty good" team. Olshey accomplished nothing special.

You're wrong, because timing of free agency played a big part.

We had many free agents this summer, which meant they got large contracts due to the cap boom. Other teams have guys under contracts based off a lesser salary cap.

Had AC, Harkless, Meyers, Dame and Turner signed contracts under last year's cap, our payroll wouldn't be top 5. Once other teams have to resign their players, their payroll will catch up too.

 

[Strenuus]

You're wrong, because timing of free agency played a big part.

We had many free agents this summer, which meant they got large contracts due to the cap boom. Other teams have guys under contracts based off a lesser salary cap.

Had AC, Harkless, Meyers, Dame and Turner signed contracts under last year's cap, our payroll wouldn't be top 5. Once other teams have to resign their players, their payroll will catch up too.

Exactly.

 

[Denny Crane]

If the Blazers don't lower their salaries by a year from this next trade deadline, they will be paying well into the LT.

Five teams paid $10M+ in LT last season. Three more paid < $5M in LT.

So compared to the old tax/cap, we're in the top third

More like top 5.

 

[riverman]

With the 3rd-highest payroll, we should have the 3rd-best team in the NBA, not a "pretty good" team. Olshey accomplished nothing special.

Try to take into account that accounting has no X factor or mojo and it will make more sense...you're just bummed we dumped the Stampede...we'll find another D league affiliate down the road. I just hope they are based in Eugene where they'll fill an arena with fans

 

[PDXFonz]

This third highest payroll thing is a farce. It's a really superficial way of looking at things.

Wait a year or two until the league normalizes to the new cap. It was just coincidental that we had so many RFAs come up for new contracts in the same year.

Take next season for example, UTA (currently at 84 mil) will max out Hayward, Gobert, and Favors. George Hill will get over 15 mil/yr. And they still will be paying over 10 mil each to a decrepit Joe Johnson and oft injured Alec Burks. That will bring them to 110 mil for just 6 guys on a mostly mediocre roster.

UTA is just an example. Minny, BOS, OKC, CHA, etc etc etc will all be in the same boat. MEM committed almost 250 mil to Parsons and Conley alone. This idea that salaries define expectations would be fine were it not for this massive jump in the cap. It distorts the perceptions a bit.

Ding! Ding! Ding!

DING!!!

 

[jlprk]

You're wrong, because timing of free agency played a big part. We had many free agents this summer, which meant they got large contracts due to the cap boom. Other teams have guys under contracts based off a lesser salary cap...Once other teams have to resign their players, their payroll will catch up too.

I agree. You are saying that Olshey didn't deserve the praise he got last year for a low payroll. It was the timing of when contracts expire that caused last year's low payroll, and this year's high one.

Bring back Bob!

 

[BonesJones]

I agree. You are saying that Olshey didn't deserve the praise he got last year for a low payroll. It was the timing of when contracts expire that caused last year's low payroll, and this year's high one.

Bring back Bob!

Where the hell did I say that? You love putting words in other peoples mouths.

I'm talking about how you act like payroll should correlate exactly to how good the team is.

 

[riverman]

Where the hell did I say that? You love putting words in other peoples mouths.

I'm talking about how you act like payroll should correlate exactly to how good the team is.

jlprk loves trader Bob...until we fire Olshey, this will continue to be an ongoing theme....jlprk actually doesn't love putting words in people's mouths...he uses words to make people use more words....sort of multiplying responses by design...very effective.

 

[jlprk]

You're wrong, because timing of free agency played a big part. We had many free agents this summer, which meant they got large contracts due to the cap boom. Other teams have guys under contracts based off a lesser salary cap...Once other teams have to resign their players, their payroll will catch up too. Olshey didn't deserve the praise he got last year for a low payroll. It was the timing of when contracts expire that caused last year's low payroll, and this year's high one. Bring back Bob!

Don't you even read what you write?

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Don't you even read what you write?

I try not to.

 

[riverman]

Don't you even read what you write?

with all the extensive research I do...especially in my kitchen...it's not necessary ....a good actor doesn't need to see his own films after he's made them...unless you're Elvis or Howard Hughes

 

[Boob-No-More]

I really don't buy into the whole remarkable health stuff. Yeah, we didn't have any major injuries to our top players, but who in West (that mattered) did outside of MEM (pretty much everyone) and the Clippers (Blake Griffin in the regular season and playoffs and CP3 in the playoffs).

You can't predict injuries, but certain factors played in our favor. We were the youngest team to make the playoffs. Age, in general, plays a factor in the likely hood of injury and also the recovery time. Of course there are exceptions both ways - young players that are injury prone and old geezers like Kareem and Karl Malone that seem to play forever.

Smaller players are also less injury prone that larger players. Again there are exceptions, but in general smaller players suffer less wear and tear on their lower bodies than big men that carry around an additional 50 - 100 lbs. Our top 4 players in terms of minutes played weighed between 195 and 215 lbs.

Perhaps it's just a coincidence, but the two players in our rotation that missed the most games due to injury were our oldest (Gerald Henderson) and our biggest (Meyers Leonard).

None of that changes much this year. Evan Turner replaces Henderson, but is two years younger. Festus Ezeli is now our biggest player, and we all know his injury history. I think most people are only expecting to get about 60 games at about 17 MPG out of him and we have other bigs that can cover for him if necessary.

When it comes to players that actually matter, GSW was even healthier than we were. Their top three players, in terms of scoring, missed a total of 6 games. Those three players accounted for 58% of their scoring. The rest of their scoring was divided between a whole slew of role players. Losing a role player to injury was no big deal for them as they had plenty of other equally talented role players that could pick up the slack.

Our top three scorers missed 10 games and accounted for 54% of our scoring. Our bench wasn't nearly as deep as theirs. So, losing a role player, hurt us more than them.

OKC's top three scorers missed a combined 16 games and accounted for 58% of their scoring. Their bench wasn't as deep as GSW's but they did have a guy coming off the bench that played in all 82 games and averaged 12.7/8.1.

I already mentioned LAC with one significant injury (plus suspension) during the regular season and two during the playoffs.

You can't really judge SAS as the majority of their DNPs were coach's decision (planned rest days). Besides, they won 67 games. It's not like injuries cost them a ton of wins.

In any case, we are still young and our best players are still smaller than league average. We're not relying on a Sam Bowie, Bill Walton or Greg Oden to take us to the promised land. Sure, a freak injury can strike any player at any time, but that's true for every team in the league - more so for those with older rosters (like DAL and MEM).

BNM

 

[jlprk]

I really don't buy into the whole remarkable health stuff. Yeah, we didn't have any major injuries to our top players, but who in West (that mattered) did outside of MEM (pretty much everyone) and the Clippers (Blake Griffin in the regular season and playoffs and CP3 in the playoffs).

The Opening Post article lists other injured Western playoff contenders which you missed:

Yes, there were mitigating factors that help explain why Portland wound up in Round 2 rather than the lottery. At the top of the list: the myriad injuries and spates of inconsistency that knocked one 2014-15 playoff team (the New Orleans Pelicans) out of the bracket, helped keep one hopeful (the Utah Jazz) out of the top eight, and dropped several incumbents (the Dallas Mavericks, Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets) in the standings. Terry Stotts’ club, meanwhile, ranked among the healthiest teams in the NBA in terms of total player games lost to injury, according to Jeff Stotts of In Street Clothes*, with only one member of Portland’s 10-man rotation (floor-spacing big man Meyers Leonard) missing more than seven games. The Blazers also got the benefit of injury luck in the playoffs, as the Los Angeles Clippers lost both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin to season-ending injuries in Game 4 of their quarterfinal matchup.

*That paragraph cites another article, with a graph. In the graph, note that the Blazers are in the lower left corner, ranking 2nd- or 3rd-fewest injuries. Your response would be that in the West, most injuries were to minor players, while the graph covers all injuries.

http://instreetclothes.com/2016/06/21/reviewing-injury-totals-2015-16-nba-season/

Smaller players are also less injury prone that larger players...Our top 4 players in terms of minutes played weighed between 195 and 215 lbs...the two players in our rotation that missed the most games due to injury were our oldest (Gerald Henderson) and our biggest (Meyers Leonard)...we are still young and our best players are still smaller than league average.

That's an interesting little factoid.

 

[jlprk]

By the way, it was grammatically painful to read. Who not that, Boob. Who not that.

I really don't buy into the whole remarkable health stuff. Yeah, we didn't have any major injuries to our top players, but who in West (that mattered) did outside of MEM (pretty much everyone) and the Clippers (Blake Griffin in the regular season and playoffs and CP3 in the playoffs).

You can't predict injuries, but certain factors played in our favor. We were the youngest team to make the playoffs. Age, in general, plays a factor in the likely hood of injury and also the recovery time. Of course there are exceptions both ways - young players that are injury prone and old geezers like Kareem and Karl Malone that seem to play forever.

Smaller players are also less injury prone that larger players. Again there are exceptions, but in general smaller players suffer less wear and tear on their lower bodies than big men that carry around an additional 50 - 100 lbs. Our top 4 players in terms of minutes played weighed between 195 and 215 lbs.

Perhaps it's just a coincidence, but the two players in our rotation that missed the most games due to injury were our oldest (Gerald Henderson) and our biggest (Meyers Leonard).

None of that changes much this year. Evan Turner replaces Henderson, but is two years younger. Festus Ezeli is now our biggest player, and we all know his injury history. I think most people are only expecting to get about 60 games at about 17 MPG out of him and we have other bigs that can cover for him if necessary.

When it comes to players that actually matter, GSW was even healthier than we were. Their top three players, in terms of scoring, missed a total of 6 games. Those three players accounted for 58% of their scoring. The rest of their scoring was divided between a whole slew of role players. Losing a role player to injury was no big deal for them as they had plenty of other equally talented role players that could pick up the slack.

Our top three scorers missed 10 games and accounted for 54% of our scoring. Our bench wasn't nearly as deep as theirs. So, losing a role player, hurt us more than them.

OKC's top three scorers missed a combined 16 games and accounted for 58% of their scoring. Their bench wasn't as deep as GSW's but they did have a guy coming off the bench that played in all 82 games and averaged 12.7/8.1.

I already mentioned LAC with one significant injury (plus suspension) during the regular season and two during the playoffs.

You can't really judge SAS as the majority of their DNPs were coach's decision (planned rest days). Besides, they won 67 games. It's not like injuries cost them a ton of wins.

In any case, we are still young and our best players are still smaller than league average. We're not relying on a Sam Bowie, Bill Walton or Greg Oden to take us to the promised land. Sure, a freak injury can strike any player at any time, but that's true for every team in the league - more so for those with older rosters (like DAL and MEM).

 

[BonesJones]

Don't you even read what you write?

You really put your own words into my quote? Wow.

 

[HailBlazers]

It's probably some of the same people who think the Aaron Afflalo trade was horrible because they knew Wes, our Iron Man, was going to get hurt.

Lol, so good.

 

[Boob-No-More]

It's probably some of the same people who think the Aaron Afflalo trade was horrible because they knew Wes, our Iron Man, was going to get hurt.

Wes was the straw that broke the camel's back, but we had several other injuries before that. Aldridge missed 11 games, as did Batum. Lopez missed 23 games and Freeland 34. Which fits in nicely with my thesis that older and bigger players are, in general, more likely to suffer injuries, and more likely to take longer to heal than younger, smaller players.

BNM

 

[Strenuus]

Wes was the straw that broke the camel's back, but we had several other injuries before that. Aldridge missed 11 games, as did Batum. Lopez missed 23 games and Freeland 34. Which fits in nicely with my thesis that older and bigger players are, in general, more likely to suffer injuries, and more likely to take longer to heal than younger, smaller players.

BNM

Yeah, but in my thesis, Wes' injury could not have been seen by anyone, making their argument that AA was a bad trade null and void, since he wasnt coming here to be a starter.

I think I'll turn that in to the professor!

 

[Cippy91]

Personally I wanna see a weekly podcast centered around the Blazers featuring Tunchi and Jlprk. Maybe Canzano could stop in every once and a while and be guest. Would be amazing

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Personally I wanna see a weekly podcast centered around the Blazers featuring Tunchi and Jlprk. Maybe Canzano could stop in every once and a while and be guest. Would be amazing

I would listen to that!

 

[Boob-No-More]

Yeah, but in my thesis, Wes' injury could not have been seen by anyone, making their argument that AA was a bad trade null and void, since he wasnt coming here to be a starter.

I think I'll turn that in to the professor!

Oh, I agree completely. No one expected our Iron Man to go down and take the season with him. Yep, Afflalo was brought in to strengthen our weak, low scoring bench. Wesley's injury forced Afflalo to start, which weakened both our bench and our stating line up and totally killed team morale.

BNM