"The West got tougher so the Blazers will lose more" is a terrible argument.

[oldfisherman]

I don't believe using the Blazers 7 new players is a valid reason to predict our team will start the season slow against the other western teams. We are not the only team that made wholesale roster changes.

Here is the list of the western teams ranked fewest to most new players. The only playoff team returning a stable roster is the Nuggets.

Nuggets, 3 new players
Rockets, 5
Spurs, 5
Dallas, 6
OKC, 6
Blazers, 7
Clippers, 7
Kings, 7
Warriors, 9
Lakers, 10
Suns, 10
Minny, 11
Jazz, 11
Pelicans, 11
Grizz, 13

 

[Chris Craig]

I don't believe using the Blazers 7 new players is a valid reason to predict our team will start the season slow against the other western teams. We are not the only team that made wholesale roster changes.

Here is the list of the western teams ranked fewest to most new players. The only playoff team returning a stable roster is the Nuggets.

Nuggets, 3 new players
Rockets, 5
Spurs, 5
Dallas, 6
OKC, 6
Blazers, 7
Clippers, 7
Kings, 7
Warriors, 9
Lakers, 10
Suns, 10
Minny, 11
Jazz, 11
Pelicans, 11
Grizz, 13

Some of the Blazers new players know players on the team. Whiteside is CJ and Dames friend. Hezonja grew up with Nurkic.

 

[riverman]

I expect us to be right in the mix...but get no ink in the media

 

[hoopsjock]

Who will start ar the 4...Green? Eh

They're planning on starting Bogdanovic at the 4.

 

[riverman]

Offensive rebounds are cool.
But I hate the opportunity.

I love the second chance buckets...make the defense work twice as hard and hopefully still get a bucket...maybe draw a foul..use that clock...Big Ed brings that and Hassan brings that. Kantor brought it too.

 

[PHXBlazer1]

The media counts us out every year..expect about the same, 50-55 wins and homecourt. But a better chance to make the Finals IMO

 

[BonesJones]

has anybody really made that argument? I haven't seen it although I don't read every post in every thread. If the argument has been made it can't be by more than 1 or 2 people. Has anybody said 43 wins?...or even 45? ("8 to 10")

I'd say these teams will be better:

LAC - LAL - Utah - Denver....Sac - NOP- Dallas - Mem

these teams will be worse - OKC (but maybe better than expected) - GSW (the epitaphs have been premature - they still might be very good) - Suns (the clown car at the end of the train)

these teams will be about the same, but could slide up or down quite a bit:

Portland - Houston - Spurs - Minny

I expect the Blazers, like in the previous 4 seasons, to put together a long hot streak in the 2nd half of the season. The key will be the start they have over the first 28 games...that's a brutal schedule. The last time the Blazers had roster turnover like this summer (2015-16), they started the season 11-20. If they repeat that they'd have to go 39-12 just to hit the 50 game plateau. That's just not realistic.

Yeah, pretty sure we wont start 11-20. For that to be likely, we'd have to be a .500 at best ball club in terms of talent. If you think that, you're sleeping.

Also, members on this forum, national media outlets, and opposing fans have all made this claim. Ive heard it a lot. I dont know how you havent.

 

[BonesJones]

I don't believe using the Blazers 7 new players is a valid reason to predict our team will start the season slow against the other western teams. We are not the only team that made wholesale roster changes.

Here is the list of the western teams ranked fewest to most new players. The only playoff team returning a stable roster is the Nuggets.

Nuggets, 3 new players
Rockets, 5
Spurs, 5
Dallas, 6
OKC, 6
Blazers, 7
Clippers, 7
Kings, 7
Warriors, 9
Lakers, 10
Suns, 10
Minny, 11
Jazz, 11
Pelicans, 11
Grizz, 13

Yeah, its not like our team relies in a bunch of ball movement to be a good team. Not hard to run pick n roll, spot up, and make a basic backcut every now and then. We only run one defensive scheme too.

This will help us mesh faster, but it hurts us in the long-run.

 

[BonesJones]

I think Ed is starting at PF with Favors gone.

Nope.

 

[BonesJones]

Nurkic vs Whiteside - How big is the downgrade offensively?

How effective is Collins + Whiteside?

Defending big wings / stretch 4's? Collins took a step back here last year. Hood is just ok on D and Bazemore is more of a 1/2 defender.

What are we going to get from Simons?

These questions / issues will have more of an affect on our record than anything else.

I do like our top 9 right now though and think this roster has good upside if things go right.

Even if we take a step back, a 29-23 record against the West isnt overachieiving. Wed have to take a step back AND underachieve to do worse in conference.

But claiming we may take a step back isnt illogical. Arguing that we'll lose many more games because the West is tough is.

 

[BonesJones]

I predict 54 wins...nobody is too positive for me when it comes to this team...riverman is a fan and with my annual 54 win predictions, we didn't cut it getting just 53 last season damnit!

Then you indirectly agree with me

 

[BonesJones]

Oh. Craig should be the starter over Barton. Barton lost his spot in the playoffs. He'll probably get it back though.

A bench is only as good as the 2nd best player at each position IMO.

 

[riverman]

Then you indirectly agree with me

I never disagreed with you bones...I just posted an opinion...

 

[Chris Craig]

They're planning on starting Bogdanovic at the 4.

Like we did with Aminu...makes sense

 

[hoopsjock]

Like we did with Aminu...makes sense

With the rest of their starting lineup being pretty damn good defensively I think they can get away with it pretty easily.

 

[Chris Craig]

With the rest of their starting lineup being pretty damn good defensively I think they can get away with it pretty easily.

The only issue is that leaves next to nothing for the bench

 

[borim69]

I really do not think there is a clear front runner in the west. It is a pretty safe bet to say Clippers and Denver or even Lakers and Clippers but would any person be surprised if the front runner would be Houston and Portland? The west got tougher does not mean Portland is the only team whos record is going to show different it is all the teams except for the Lakers there is no way they are going to have a worse record then last year. Most people think the Clippers are going to run away with the show. I do not think so. The west got tougher because the talent got spread around and playoff seeding gets started on game one not game one after the all star break

 

[BonesJones]

I never disagreed with you bones...I just posted an opinion...

Seemed like you were based on how it was written haha

 

[PtldPlatypus]

But claiming we may take a step back isnt illogical. Arguing that we'll lose many more games because the West is tough is.

I don't believe that the argument is that we'll lose more games solely because the west got tougher, but simply that that is one of a group of reasons to expect a worse record, along with Nurk being out for an extended stretch, presumed growing pains of young players thrust into significant roles, significant loss of roster continuity, belief that the overall record against the east was somewhat flukey, lack of Meyers' all-league towel-waving, etc.

Now, it's possible that none of those concerns impact the record, but it's not "illogical" to believe they might.

 

[mook]

I don't believe using the Blazers 7 new players is a valid reason to predict our team will start the season slow against the other western teams. We are not the only team that made wholesale roster changes.

Here is the list of the western teams ranked fewest to most new players. The only playoff team returning a stable roster is the Nuggets.

Nuggets, 3 new players
Rockets, 5
Spurs, 5
Dallas, 6
OKC, 6
Blazers, 7
Clippers, 7
Kings, 7
Warriors, 9
Lakers, 10
Suns, 10
Minny, 11
Jazz, 11
Pelicans, 11
Grizz, 13

I'd also add, how many of those teams implemented not just new players, but new top 2 players?

Adding Anthony Davis or Westbrook or Paul George or Porzingas or Conley are generally no-brainers in terms of talent injections to a team. But there's a massive ripple effect that these additions create:

• The coaches have to adapt their strategies and minutes to the new stars.
• Role players have to adapt their styles of play to the new stars.
• Existing stars have to figure out how to share the ball with the new stars.

All of this adjustment can be really hard, and it can lead to a lot of experimenting (and losing) early in the season. Throw in the injury history of these new stars and it only gets more complicated.

Think about the kind of adjustments Portland will be dealing with in adding their 7 new role players:

• Coaching: How does Stotts replace Harkless' minutes with Bazemore?
• Role Players: Can Collins get used to Simons hitting threes instead of Curry?
• Stars: Is Dame going to struggle to figure out how to share the ball with Whiteside?

These questions are a cakewalk.

Especially compared to:

• Coaching: How does D'Antoni maximize the talents of both Harden and Westbrook?
• Role Players: How does Kuzma fit in when AD and LeBron both want to play power forward?
• Stars: How much ball handling will Mitchel get to do with Conley at PG? How will that fit his game?

Portland has new players, but not really a lot of new problems because their stars didn't change. New role players were hired to play existing roles.

You can change stars, coaches or role players. Changing role players is by far the least disruptive.

 

[CupWizier]

Offensive rebounds are cool.
But I hate the opportunity.

why would you hate the opportunity for offensive rebounds?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

why would you hate the opportunity for offensive rebounds?

Because a shot has to have been missed first? Maybe Marzy's of the "get it right the first time" mentality.

 

[CupWizier]

Because a shot has to have been missed first? Maybe Marzy's of the "get it right the first time" mentality.

so you are saying marzy expects the Blazers to never miss a shot? That might be great in fantasy land, but not realistic on a basketball court. I would much rather have a team that gets offensive rebounds and gets second chance points than a team that doesn't. No team is going to make every shot are they?

 

[wizenheimer]

Also, members on this forum, national media outlets, and opposing fans have all made this claim. Ive heard it a lot. I dont know how you havent.

I've heard the claim of a stronger West. I haven't heard it coupled with Portland only winning 43 games

 

[THE HCP]

The west got tougher does not mean Portland is the only team whos record is going to show different it is all the teams except for the Lakers there is no way they are going to have a worse record then last year. Most people think the Clippers are going to run away with the show. I do not think so. The west got tougher because the talent got spread around and playoff seeding gets started on game one not game one after the all star break

I don’t believe anybody is saying that Portland is the ONLY team who is going to lose more. Thats the whole point. There isn’t one super team anymore. There are 6 really good teams, thus why people think there will be more loses. I don’t have pie charts or graphs, just some common sense that when there are MORE quality teams, MORE loses are going to happen. Not that we are worse than last season, just tougher comp is all.

 

[THE HCP]

To tell you the truth, I think we lose more games this year, the competition is only part of it. I think Nurk being out and the fact that there are so many new players is probably more of a factor. Going to take a bit for that chemistry to kick in. Other teams will have to deal with their chemistry issues as well.....and guess what happens while this is happening.....more losses. Everybody is gonna be losing. I love it.

 

[riverman]

To tell you the truth, I think we lose more games this year, the competition is only part of it. I think Nurk being out and the fact that there are so many new players is probably more of a factor. Going to take a bit for that chemistry to kick in.

That's true for just about every team in the west though....seems to me we should be top 4 again..Lebron isn't dominating the West like he did the East from a small sample size. KD is gone..I think our window to success is better actually

 

[THE HCP]

That's true for just about every team in the west though....seems to me we should be top 4 again..Lebron isn't dominating the West like he did the East from a small sample size. KD is gone..I think our window to success is better actually

LeBron would have played the whole season last year had that team not shit the bed. He will be just fine and dominate like usual.

 

[illmatic99]

Nurkic vs Whiteside - How big is the downgrade offensively?

How effective is Collins + Whiteside?

Defending big wings / stretch 4's? Collins took a step back here last year. Hood is just ok on D and Bazemore is more of a 1/2 defender.

What are we going to get from Simons?

These questions / issues will have more of an affect on our record than anything else.

I do like our top 9 right now though and think this roster has good upside if things go right.

This is key.

The underlying assumption that @BonesJones is making is that we'll be as good or better than last year as a roster.

-Our bench is totally different, we have fewer shooters (Curry/Leonard), worse wing defense (Aminu/Harkless), and a different locker room (ET's absence). We're gonna be relying heavily on Zach and Simons who are both largely unproven, and Nurkic's absence could finally catch up to us.

We could just as easily be worse. All this is speculation obviously, but could happen.

 

[THE HCP]

This is key.

The underlying assumption that @BonesJones is making is that we'll be as good or better than last year as a roster.

-Our bench is totally different, we have fewer shooters (Curry/Leonard), worse wing defense (Aminu/Harkless), and a different locker room (ET's absence). We're gonna be relying heavily on Zach and Simons who are both largely unproven, and Nurkic's absence could finally catch up to us.

We could just as easily be worse. All this is speculation obviously, but could happen.

Be careful tossing around this common sense FAMS.