OT The West’s top three teams...

[hoopsjock]

But it's not just the bench. Nurkic has improved so much this season. His PER is up from 19.2 last year to 23.3 this year. Harkless was injured last year in the playoffs and ET was banged up. Aminu is up in PER from 12 to 13.2.

PER doesn't really account for defense. Last year the Blazers were around 7th in defensive rating. This year they are 15th. To me that cancels out the offensive uptick.

 

[Orion Bailey]

So glad I started this thread. Im getting some major learnt here. Thanks guys for diving so deep into the numbers. Enjoying the reading.

 

[Hoopguru]

It's pretty common knowledge that to win in the playoffs you need a bench.
That teams who rely on their starters alone don't do so well.
Clippers, Portland(aldridge & Lillard eras), Bulls(Drose era), Thunder, Bucks, Memphis.
Where teams that have a bench, or bench players who can be relied on to score do well.
Rockets, GSW, Spurs(Duncan era), Lakers(Shaq & Kobe), etc.
Hell you look @ prime LBJ/Wade/Bosh. Miller and old man Ray Allen played huge scoring roles for those teams in the playoffs on the way to the ring.

History has shown that going into the playoffs where teams rely on their starters too much for scoring. Those teams fail, where teams with depth succeed.

Now it's an entirely different argument on if I think Kanter/Layman/Curry/Turner/Collins/Hood provide that punch.
I will say that Portland hasn't had players like Kanter/Hood in quite some time. They still don't move my needle.

Disclaimer. I haven't read this thread nor have I read any posts except the two I responded of yours eric.

Great observation and I would add a little experience helps too.

 

[e_blazer]

Pelicans strategy: Take out Dame, make anyone else on the Blazers beat us INCLUDING CJ.

@hoopsjock 's point: That strategy was/is super effective as CJ played well and it didn't matter one bit. I don't think teams can win deep into the playoffs if their best player is a shell of what he is in the regular season.

@e_blazer's point: When you combine Dame and CJ they did fine!

If the Blazers would've been more competitive in that series then I could maybe see your point. You can't include CJ's stats with Dame's when the other team didn't care that CJ was playing hero ball. The Pelicans strategy worked to perfection! Dame doesn't do well when blitzed/doubled out of the pick and roll, whether it's AD or a mediocre defender. AD's skills of course are much tougher to adjust to but the Blazers have literally done nothing different when teams double Dame this year. It doesn't matter what the role players do if Dame is torn down to that level of play again.

The score is the score. When a defense commits to holding your two starters under their season averages by 4 total points, somebody else has to make that up. The Blazers didn't have the horses to make that happen.

 

[Hoopguru]

Overstating? The Pelicans whole game plan was to shut down Dame at all costs. They didn't really care about CJ going off so they let him get his and we still didn't win a game.

Dame in that series:
FG: 35.2% (Regular Season 43.9%)
3P: 30.0% (Regular Season 36.1%)
PPG: 18.5 (Regular Season 26.9)
APG: 4.75 (Regular Season 6.6)
TO PG: 4.0 (Regular Season 2.8)
AST to TO ratio: 1.19 (Regular Season 2.33)
Points per Shot: 1.04 (Regular Season 1.39)

That is being shut down, like completely. I don't even see how you can argue otherwise. Dame scored 68% of what he averaged int he regular season. His shooting numbers were terrible as he scored 74 points on 71 shots. He was forced into way more turnovers, assisted less. and had horrible efficiency.

He ran into one the best D guards in the league, plus I believe some of his focus was with mom and kid.

 

[Hoopguru]

Wow, I'm flabbergasted. So if the 2015-16 Blazers had a strong bench they could've taken down the Warriors or the Cavs? You say the bench matters and then list a bunch of teams that had less star power than the team they lost to which proves my point. Look at the Heat the two years LeBron struggled in the Finals where they lost to the Mavs and the Spurs. You need your stars to step up. Yes, having a bench and good role players for sure helps make it easier to advance or win a title but they can't carry a team in the playoffs when your best player is a shell of what he normally is.

Thats what separates the super stars from all stars. IMO, Dame is an all star and not a super star, yet anyway.

 

[e_blazer]

PER doesn't really account for defense. Last year the Blazers were around 7th in defensive rating. This year they are 15th. To me that cancels out the offensive uptick.

I'd really like to hear what it is that Stotts could/should be doing differently. The offense is based on two high octane guards either using screens to get free for a shot or a dribble-drive to break the defense and score, get the ball to a big for a shot at the rim, or kick out to an open three point shooter. That's the basics in a single sentence. Stotts and Olshey have looked to improve the chances of that offensive scheme by getting better three point shooters and another interior scorer. It sounds to me like you (and many others) are saying that you want an offensive scheme that is totally different, at least when the other team commits to shutting down Dame. What exactly do you want to see happen?

 

[e_blazer]

PER doesn't really account for defense. Last year the Blazers were around 7th in defensive rating. This year they are 15th. To me that cancels out the offensive uptick.

Are you suggesting that Nurk's defense isn't improved as well, because his blocks and steals are both up over last year. I'd say a chunk of that defensive slide was Harkless missing so many games. These past few games when he's been playing well, you can see what a defensive stud he is.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

PER doesn't really account for defense. Last year the Blazers were around 7th in defensive rating. This year they are 15th. To me that cancels out the offensive uptick.

Mostly yeah, but our offensive uptick of 4.5 pts/100 has been larger than the defensive drop of 3.8/100, so our net rating is 0.7 higher than last year. Our SRS rating of 4.04 is quite a bit higher than last year's 2.6. Our pythagorean calc comes out 2 wins higher than last year's. All the metrics already indicate that this year's team overall is incrementally better than last year's, and that's before the most recent additions have been able to make much impact.

 

[hoopsjock]

The score is the score. When a defense commits to holding your two starters under their season averages by 4 total points, somebody else has to make that up. The Blazers didn't have the horses to make that happen.

You keep saying their "two" scorers. The Pelicans only committed to stopping Dame not CJ, yet you keep including him. Besides when someone has a 38 point game in a 4 game size it makes the numbers a lot closer than they appear.

Watch, I can do that too:
Since the Blazers scored 123 points in their last game they averaged 105.5 points per game for the season. In the regular season they averaged 105.6. So by your logic the rest of the team (other than Dame and CJ) actually had 4 points more output than they did in the regular season. So it's not like they disappeared, they were better in the playoffs. This once again proves that Dame being shut down was in fact the reason we lost because the rest of the team's output was fine.

 

[hoopsjock]

Mostly yeah, but our offensive uptick of 4.5 pts/100 has been larger than the defensive drop of 3.8/100, so our net rating is 0.7 higher than last year. Our SRS rating of 4.04 is quite a bit higher than last year's 2.6. Our pythagorean calc comes out 2 wins higher than last year's. All the metrics already indicate that this year's team overall is incrementally better than last year's, and that's before the most recent additions have been able to make much impact.

And I have stated numerous times that this team IS in fact better than last year's version. My argument all along is that the improvements are beneficial to regular season success and could potentially help in the playoffs but might not have a huge impact in the playoffs where teams are locked in on their strategies and stars like Dame need to at least come close to their regular season output to become an actual factor in the playoffs. If Dame only averages 18.5 points per game on 30% shooting with a horrible assist to turnover ratio it doesn't really matter what the rest of the team does. Now if he only averages 18.5 points per game super efficiently and is taking care of the ball then those role players could be a huge difference.

I don't know if I'm just not explaining it right but there is a massive discrepancy between Dame being taken out of a game by another team's defensive game plan and Dame not having to carry the team on his back.

 

[hoopsjock]

Are you suggesting that Nurk's defense isn't improved as well, because his blocks and steals are both up over last year. I'd say a chunk of that defensive slide was Harkless missing so many games. These past few games when he's been playing well, you can see what a defensive stud he is.

I don't think Nurk's defense is that much better than last year but that is because I thought he was great on defense last year too. He single-handedly changed our defense from a historically bad one to a top-10 one last year. He was good both years in my opinion.

As for Harkless, he only played in 59 games last year and only started in 36. So sorry but your theory that him being out of the lineup this year is the reason for the down slide can easily be dismissed.

 

[hoopsjock]

I'd really like to hear what it is that Stotts could/should be doing differently. The offense is based on two high octane guards either using screens to get free for a shot or a dribble-drive to break the defense and score, get the ball to a big for a shot at the rim, or kick out to an open three point shooter. That's the basics in a single sentence. Stotts and Olshey have looked to improve the chances of that offensive scheme by getting better three point shooters and another interior scorer. It sounds to me like you (and many others) are saying that you want an offensive scheme that is totally different, at least when the other team commits to shutting down Dame. What exactly do you want to see happen?

We've discussed this ad nauseam since the sweep last spring.

Play Dame off the ball.

Play through Nurk at the high post.

Run pick and rolls on the side.

Run pick and rolls with someone other than who their best defender is guarding.

Run pick and rolls in areas where you have a passing lane to a designated player who can quickly turn that double team into a 4-on-3 advantage.

Run picks off the ball instead of on it.

Play both Kanter and Nurk and punish teams physically by posting up whichever one has a smaller defender.

Let a bigger guard like Hood run the pick and roll where he can pass out of it easier.

I could go all day with this. There are teams that have been effective in blitzing Dame this year and we've done nothing scheme wise to adjust to it. This should have been the top priority in the off season. Fortunately for us for some reason most teams don't do it very often in the regular season. I guarantee we see it in the playoffs though.

 

[e_blazer]

And I have stated numerous times that this team IS in fact better than last year's version. My argument all along is that the improvements are beneficial to regular season success and could potentially help in the playoffs but might not have a huge impact in the playoffs where teams are locked in on their strategies and stars like Dame need to at least come close to their regular season output to become an actual factor in the playoffs. If Dame only averages 18.5 points per game on 30% shooting with a horrible assist to turnover ratio it doesn't really matter what the rest of the team does. Now if he only averages 18.5 points per game super efficiently and is taking care of the ball then those role players could be a huge difference.

I don't know if I'm just not explaining it right but there is a massive discrepancy between Dame being taken out of a game by another team's defensive game plan and Dame not having to carry the team on his back.

The point that I made which you have conveniently ignored is there being a lack of teams having the defensive guards and a mobile big of AD's quality needed in order to effectively implement the defense the Pelicans employed against the Blazers last year. People always complain when others (myself included) note that last year was a matchup nightmare for the Blazers. Please explain which team we should be so in fear of this year.

 

[CupWizier]

The point that I made which you have conveniently ignored is there being a lack of teams having the defensive guards and a mobile big of AD's quality needed in order to effectively implement the defense the Pelicans employed against the Blazers last year. People always complain when others (myself included) note that last year was a matchup nightmare for the Blazers. Please explain which team we should be so in fear of this year.

I agree and another factor is, that Pelican team doesn't even exist anymore and likely not to make the playoffs so there is no history of another team scheming as effectively. Last year is last year this will be a new playoff series.

 

[hoopsjock]

The point that I made which you have conveniently ignored is there being a lack of teams having the defensive guards and a mobile big of AD's quality needed in order to effectively implement the defense the Pelicans employed against the Blazers last year. People always complain when others (myself included) note that last year was a matchup nightmare for the Blazers. Please explain which team we should be so in fear of this year.

This whole conversation started talking about the Rockets being a good matchup for us. Paul and Capela (and Faried) would absolutely be effective in doing a similar thing to us. Just this year OKC has done it with George and Adams/Grant which has been effective too. The Kings in one of the games did it effectively with Fox and Cauley-Stein. The Lakers have Rondo and LeBron who would be similar to AD. The Warriors have Klay, Durant, and Green who could all effectively do it. The Nuggets could do it with Harris and Millsap. The Jazz could do it with Rubio and Gobert.

That leaves the Spurs and the Clippers as the only two that might not be able to. The Clippers just made a bunch of changes, who knows. The Spurs are fading fast and are in danger of not making the playoffs.

 

[CupWizier]

This whole conversation started talking about the Rockets being a good matchup for us. Paul and Capela (and Faried) would absolutely be effective in doing a similar thing to us. Just this year OKC has done it with George and Adams/Grant which has been effective too. The Kings in one of the games did it effectively with Fox and Cauley-Stein. The Lakers have Rondo and LeBron who would be similar to AD. The Warriors have Klay, Durant, and Green who could all effectively do it. The Nuggets could do it with Harris and Millsap. The Jazz could do it with Rubio and Gobert.

That leaves the Spurs and the Clippers as the only two that might not be able to. The Clippers just made a bunch of changes, who knows. The Spurs are fading fast and are in danger of not making the playoffs.

Heck, i guess we should go into tank mode and get the best pick we can. You painted a doom and gloom picture.

 

[e_blazer]

This whole conversation started talking about the Rockets being a good matchup for us. Paul and Capela (and Faried) would absolutely be effective in doing a similar thing to us. Just this year OKC has done it with George and Adams/Grant which has been effective too. The Kings in one of the games did it effectively with Fox and Cauley-Stein. The Lakers have Rondo and LeBron who would be similar to AD. The Warriors have Klay, Durant, and Green who could all effectively do it. The Nuggets could do it with Harris and Millsap. The Jazz could do it with Rubio and Gobert.

That leaves the Spurs and the Clippers as the only two that might not be able to. The Clippers just made a bunch of changes, who knows. The Spurs are fading fast and are in danger of not making the playoffs.

Paul isn’t nearly tall enough to keep Dame from getting his shot. Capela and Faried don’t have AD’s length. Your other suggestions are a real reach. Adams is plodding compared with AD. The Warriors have never attempted that defensive scheme in any of our regular season games or the two series we had with them. Could they, maybe but I think they take too much pride in their individual defense. LeBron and Rondo? Sure for short spurts, but it would be insane to ask LeBron to put out that much defensive effort for a whole series at his age. They may not even make the playoffs. The Kings? No. Not for a series.

And the question still exists: if the Blazers are as weak because of this chink in their armor as you suggest, what should Stotts do about it? Or are we DOOOOOMED!?

 

[hoopsjock]

Paul isn’t nearly tall enough to keep Dame from getting his shot. Capela and Faried don’t have AD’s length. Your other suggestions are a real reach. Adams is plodding compared with AD. The Warriors have never attempted that defensive scheme in any of our regular season games or the two series we had with them. Could they, maybe but I think they take too much pride in their individual defense. LeBron and Rondo? Sure for short spurts, but it would be insane to ask LeBron to put out that much defensive effort for a whole series at his age. They may not even make the playoffs. The Kings? No. Not for a series.

And the question still exists: if the Blazers are as weak because of this chink in their armor as you suggest, what should Stotts do about it? Or are we DOOOOOMED!?

Maybe you missed this whole post.

We've discussed this ad nauseam since the sweep last spring.

Play Dame off the ball.

Play through Nurk at the high post.

Run pick and rolls on the side.

Run pick and rolls with someone other than who their best defender is guarding.

Run pick and rolls in areas where you have a passing lane to a designated player who can quickly turn that double team into a 4-on-3 advantage.

Run picks off the ball instead of on it.

Play both Kanter and Nurk and punish teams physically by posting up whichever one has a smaller defender.

Let a bigger guard like Hood run the pick and roll where he can pass out of it easier.

I could go all day with this. There are teams that have been effective in blitzing Dame this year and we've done nothing scheme wise to adjust to it. This should have been the top priority in the off season. Fortunately for us for some reason most teams don't do it very often in the regular season. I guarantee we see it in the playoffs though.

 

[hoopsjock]

Heck, i guess we should go into tank mode and get the best pick we can. You painted a doom and gloom picture.

For fuck's sake Cup, not once in this thread have I said anything about us not being better than last year. My point from the very beginning has been that in the regular season they don't get teams taking away Dame like teams have been able to do in the playoffs. The Blazers better be prepared with an answer to combat it when it pops up this post season. Simply hoping this year will be different because we aren't playing AD is fucking stupid and any coach who even thinks for a split second like that doesn't deserve to coach in the NBA. So I really hope they've been working on a solution.

 

[CupWizier]

For fuck's sake Cup, not once in this thread have I said anything about us not being better than last year. My point from the very beginning has been that in the regular season they don't get teams taking away Dame like teams have been able to do in the playoffs. The Blazers better be prepared with an answer to combat it when it pops up this post season. Simply hoping this year will be different because we aren't playing AD is fucking stupid and any coach who even thinks for a split second like that doesn't deserve to coach in the NBA. So I really hope they've been working on a solution.

Fer criss sakes hj, it was a "fucking" joke. Did you not notice the devils wink?

 

[BonesJones]

For the record, I'm not trying to rip Dame here. I just don't think having a couple better players off the bench solves all our problems.

Definitely doesn't. We'll still (likely) have to deal with a trap, which we've shown no answer for.

We had Aminu shooting an insane percentage on volume during that Pels series yet fans seem to still blame not having a "good enough shooter at the PF spot" as the reason we couldn't handle the trap.

Well if our PF shot over 43%, then that's obviously not the reason. Having a low-post scoring C off the bench and an inconsistent scoring SG/SF doesn't fix that either.

 

[BonesJones]

Heck, i guess we should go into tank mode and get the best pick we can. You painted a doom and gloom picture.

Absolutely ridiculous.

 

[BonesJones]

Maybe you missed this whole post.

I'd have more confidence in us gameplanning against the trap than Stotts. For some reason he can't handle it. He runs more high pick n roll when teams are effectively trapping. Makes no sense.

 

[LayneStaley]

Mwhich is one of the better matchups for us.

In an absolute perfect scenario the Clippers would keep winning, they are only 1 game out of 6th. If we pass OKC, which I think we will, I don’t see anyway we would lose to the Clippers in a first round matchup, in fact I would consider betting on a sweep.

First round - Clippers(6)
Second round - Nuggets(2)
WCF - Warriors(1)

I could see us making it to the WCF if that unfolded, or at least going the distance in the Denver series.

 

[e_blazer]

Maybe you missed this whole post.

I did miss that. Sorry.

I assumed that you were a good enough X’s and O’s guy to come up with something like that. Now, here’s my follow-up: You’re way too smart to actually think that Stotts and his seasoned group of NBA assistants haven’t discussed and considered everything on your list and more. They have way more basketball knowledge and experience than anyone here and their jobs depend on getting results. So, given that, why do you think that we haven’t seen more use of those things? Are there legitimate reasons why a coach would not want to make some of those changes during a series given the roster, the opposition, the amount of time it takes to change an offense?

 

[CupWizier]

Absolutely ridiculous.

Yes, your response is absolutely ridiculous as it was already explained it was a joke and yet you insist on trying to instigate.

 

[oldmangrouch]

The point that I made which you have conveniently ignored is there being a lack of teams having the defensive guards and a mobile big of AD's quality needed in order to effectively implement the defense the Pelicans employed against the Blazers last year. People always complain when others (myself included) note that last year was a matchup nightmare for the Blazers. Please explain which team we should be so in fear of this year.

Heat 118 - Blazers 108. Similar scheme with lesser players = same result.

 

[oldmangrouch]

I did miss that. Sorry.

I assumed that you were a good enough X’s and O’s guy to come up with something like that. Now, here’s my follow-up: You’re way too smart to actually think that Stotts and his seasoned group of NBA assistants haven’t discussed and considered everything on your list and more. They have way more basketball knowledge and experience than anyone here and their jobs depend on getting results. So, given that, why do you think that we haven’t seen more use of those things? Are there legitimate reasons why a coach would not want to make some of those changes during a series given the roster, the opposition, the amount of time it takes to change an offense?

You see this from coaches in every sport. Do you admit you made a mistake and change the gameplan - or do you stick with the plan and blame the players for not executing?

 

[e_blazer]

You see this from coaches in every sport. Do you admit you made a mistake and change the gameplan - or do you stick with the plan and blame the players for not executing?

I think I missed the part where Terry blamed anyone. He also doesn’t seem to me to be a “my way or the highway” kind of guy.