Time to start Collins

[Scalma]

Remember this thread?

I say we revisit it. My thoughts haven’t really changed.

Collins the last 15 games /36:

13.7 PPG
9.6 RPG
1.5 BPG
1.2 SPG
2.8 APG
47% FG
50% 3PT

Yet he’s only averaging 16 minutes a game. Yes, he also averages near 6 fouls/36 but I also don’t think we’re putting him in the best position to succeed. He’s splitting time or sharing the court with Meyers, neither of which is ideal.

If we were to play him with the starters, I think we’d get more out of him. I also think it’d make our offense a lot less predictable. Aminu doesn’t offer much besides an inconsistent outlet shot. Zach has flashed post ability all season. Let’s use his skill set. With how often teams go small, he’d be matched against smaller players, especially if he’s sharing the court with Nurkic. Nurk and Collins have only shared the court for 20 minutes this season, even though they’ve graded out positively on both ends. Limited sample but our best rebounding unit involves both of them.

I’m pretty sure we didn’t trade up into the lottery to draft a backup center. Olshey has ONLY compared Zach to power forwards. I get why Meyers and Zach don’t really work, but look at how well the Zach/Davis pairing worked last year. Why couldn’t we try the Nurk/Zach pairing more?

Dame
CJ
Layman
Collins
Nurk

That should be our starting 5 imo. At least give it a shot Terry! Or just keep doing the same shit over and over again and maybe get fired, your call dog.

 

[blue9]

Nurk and Collins have only shared the court for 20 minutes this season

This is so damning.

 

[Scalma]

And this isn’t even me knocking Aminu. I just think Collins is a better fit with the starters. And we should also prioritize his development. Having him in and out of the lineup and sharing the court with a defensive liability like Meyers isn’t prioritizing development. This sounds backwards, but put him with the starters and I’d bet money his job would get easier.

Shit, the second unit would probably get better as well. With Turner, Hood, Moe, Aminu, and Meyers they could just get out and run.

 

[wizenheimer]

In real life, people that suck at defense foul a lot.

in real life, players who are good at defense foul a lot too...they are just a lot smarter about how, and when, to foul

 

[Scalma]

Another interesting stat:

When Zach has a defender within 2-6ft of him on three point attempts, he shoots 46%. It’s when he’s “wide open” (6+ ft) that he has his struggles (32%)

By comparison, 2-6ft Aminu shoots 30%, and 36% on 6ft+.

What I’m getting at is Collins is probably a better shooter than his percentages indicate, while Aminu is the opposite. It’s much easier to believe the percentages on those wide open looks will improve than the ones that are more closely contested. Collins is probably just trying too hard. When he’s guarded more closely, he has less time to think.

 

[James lamphear]

Remember this thread?

I say we revisit it. My thoughts haven’t really changed.

Collins the last 15 games /36:

13.7 PPG
9.6 RPG
1.5 BPG
1.2 SPG
2.8 APG
47% FG
50% 3PT

Yet he’s only averaging 16 minutes a game. Yes, he also averages near 6 fouls/36 but I also don’t think we’re putting him in the best position to succeed. He’s splitting time or sharing the court with Meyers, neither of which is ideal.

If we were to play him with the starters, I think we’d get more out of him. I also think it’d make our offense a lot less predictable. Aminu doesn’t offer much besides an inconsistent outlet shot. Zach has flashed post ability all season. Let’s use his skill set. With how often teams go small, he’d be matched against smaller players, especially if he’s sharing the court with Nurkic. Nurk and Collins have only shared the court for 20 minutes this season, even though they’ve graded out positively on both ends. Limited sample but our best rebounding unit involves both of them.

I’m pretty sure we didn’t trade up into the lottery to draft a backup center. Olshey has ONLY compared Zach to power forwards. I get why Meyers and Zach don’t really work, but look at how well the Zach/Davis pairing worked last year. Why couldn’t we try the Nurk/Zach pairing more?

Dame
CJ
Layman
Collins
Nurk

That should be our starting 5 imo. At least give it a shot Terry! Or just keep doing the same shit over and over again and maybe get fired, your call dog.

Well it kind surprised to me if Stotts think he was going be our future 4 I we think he would tinker with it more to see if it would work. I know when they both was the floor earlier it was successful especially on the defense side.

 

[Propagandist]

in real life, players who are good at defense foul a lot too...they are just a lot smarter about how, and when, to foul

True true, but I'm not thinking that's what Zach's up to...

 

[B-Roy]

RI’m pretty sure we didn’t trade up into the lottery to draft a backup center. Olshey has ONLY compared Zach to power forwards. I get why Meyers and Zach don’t really work, but look at how well the Zach/Davis pairing worked last year. Why couldn’t we try the Nurk/Zach pairing more?

I'm curious, where is this? I've only heard Olshey compare Zach to centers when Zach was first drafted.

My speculation is this:

Zach was brought in to be Nurk's replacement, Olshey envisions the prototypical center to be quick, lengthy, and can shoot jumpers.

Then Nurk showed he's way better than they thought, which throws a wrench in the plans to develop Collins into the future starter.

 

[Scalma]

I'm curious, where is this? I've only heard Olshey compare Zach to centers when Zach was first drafted.

My speculation is this:

Zach was brought in to be Nurk's replacement, Olshey envisions the prototypical center to be quick, lengthy, and can shoot jumpers.

Then Nurk showed he's way better than they thought, which throws a wrench in the plans to develop Collins into the future starter.

What centers has Olshey ever compared Zach to? The only names I’ve heard were Sheed, McHale, and Aldridge.

 

[Hoopguru]

Wouldn't do any good. Nurk has lost his confidence and/or interest. Collins is thrashing around like a manatee run down by nuclear sub. In both cases, Stotts must shoulder the bulk of the blame. When was the last time he did any actual coaching? Neither one of them will ever be the player they should have been as long as Stotts is here.

I’d say that Nurk has played well under Stotts.

 

[B-Roy]

What centers has Olshey ever compared Zach to? The only names I’ve heard were Sheed, McHale, and Aldridge.

He doesn't compare them to players specifically, it's just what he says implies that they see him as more of a 5. Add to the fact that they drafted a guy who can only play the PF in the same draft.

https://www.nbcsports.com/northwest...ing-neil-olshey-was-sold-zach-collins-january

The plan is to play Collins as a backup to Jusuf Nurkic, and perhaps at times alongside Nurkic against bigger lineups.

Collins says he doesn’t want to pigeon-hole himself as a center or a power forward, he just wants to play, improve, and mostly, win. Other than that, he says he doesn’t know much about the team outside of the latest players who Olshey had a “feeling” about -- Lillard and McCollum.

“He is everything you wanna look for in a big man in our league today. This is about the next 12-15 years. He is a franchise-level building block to join guys we already have on this roster. He fits their career arc. He does some things we really need but more than anything we are trying to build the roster the right way. If we can accelerate this, we would accelerate it, but if we are not going to accelerate it, we need to make the best and the most of the model that we are under right now.”

 

[swish3]

It will be interesting to see what Blazer offense can be mounted when we play Nurk with Zach and Enes as forwards. Blazer rebounding dominance might equal a powerful winning strategy.

 

[Propagandist]

It will be interesting to see what Blazer offense can be mounted when we play Nurk with Zach and Enes as forwards. Blazer rebounding dominance might equal a powerful winning strategy.

When I read your posts I hear a robot voice in my head.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Not until Aminu is gone at the end of the season. He will be our starter to open next season though.

 

[TBpup]

Not until Aminu is gone at the end of the season. He will be our starter to open next season though.

Hopefully that is the case. Collins needs to really take a step up in season 3 if the Blazers are going to take a next step.

 

[H.C.]

I’d say that Nurk has played well under Stotts.

No, No. We need a big man coach.
Our bigs are shit and with one they'd be amazing.
Stotts and co don't develop players EVER.

 

[blue9]

Seemed like the Kanter thread was kinda veering off topic so figured I'd dredge this one up to talk about Collins.

Some people like Aminu. Cool. I don't. And I don't think the numbers say that Aminu should play 30mpg while Zach gets DNP-CD'd.

And to those who will point to the difference in ORtg, etc, I would say that those are probably highly influenced by who they are playing with:

Aminu plays 87% of his minutes with both Dame and Nurk, and 13% of his minutes with at least one of Dame/Nurk.
Collins plays 0% of his minutes with both Dame and Nurk, 36% of his minutes with one of Dame/Nurk, and 64% of his minutes with neither.

Something makes me think that Collins' advanced metrics would look a lot better if he played 87% of his minutes with the team's best players, rather than 64% of his minutes with the team's worst players. As it sits he still sports an equal Drtg. Let that sink in - the guy who hardly plays with Nurk and plays most of his minutes with Meyers has an equal Drtg to the guy who plays at least 87% of his minutes with Nurk.

 

[tlongII]

I’d say that Nurk has played well under Stotts.

I agree. And that makes me scratch my head a little bit.

 

[tlongII]

When I read your posts I hear a robot voice in my head.

I hear a commercial advertisement.

 

[Propagandist]

Seemed like the Kanter thread was kinda veering off topic so figured I'd dredge this one up to talk about Collins.

Some people like Aminu. Cool. I don't. And I don't think the numbers say that Aminu should play 30mpg while Zach gets DNP-CD'd.

And to those who will point to the difference in ORtg, etc, I would say that those are probably highly influenced by who they are playing with:

Aminu plays 87% of his minutes with both Dame and Nurk, and 13% of his minutes with at least one of Dame/Nurk.
Collins plays 0% of his minutes with both Dame and Nurk, 36% of his minutes with one of Dame/Nurk, and 64% of his minutes with neither.

Something makes me think that Collins' advanced metrics would look a lot better if he played 87% of his minutes with the team's best players, rather than 64% of his minutes with the team's worst players. As it sits he still sports an equal Drtg. Let that sink in - the guy who hardly plays with Nurk and plays most of his minutes with Meyers has an equal Drtg to the guy who plays at least 87% of his minutes with Nurk.


View attachment 25147

Have you no eyes?!?!?

Collins plays against bench talent and still looks lumbering and oft lost. Chief plays with sieves up front AND guards the elites. Chief is the glue.

At this point this is a careful-what-you-wish-for scenario. Besides, we've been playing good basketball without him, and 4th quarters against the Suns with him. Can't we just focus on winning and revisit Zach in a couple of seasons?

 

[Orion Bailey]

Seemed like the Kanter thread was kinda veering off topic so figured I'd dredge this one up to talk about Collins.

Some people like Aminu. Cool. I don't. And I don't think the numbers say that Aminu should play 30mpg while Zach gets DNP-CD'd.

And to those who will point to the difference in ORtg, etc, I would say that those are probably highly influenced by who they are playing with:

Aminu plays 87% of his minutes with both Dame and Nurk, and 13% of his minutes with at least one of Dame/Nurk.
Collins plays 0% of his minutes with both Dame and Nurk, 36% of his minutes with one of Dame/Nurk, and 64% of his minutes with neither.

Something makes me think that Collins' advanced metrics would look a lot better if he played 87% of his minutes with the team's best players, rather than 64% of his minutes with the team's worst players. As it sits he still sports an equal Drtg. Let that sink in - the guy who hardly plays with Nurk and plays most of his minutes with Meyers has an equal Drtg to the guy who plays at least 87% of his minutes with Nurk.


View attachment 25147

Thats not a fair analogy. Aminu is covering some of the best players in the game while collins gets minutes agaisnt second units and scrubs.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Have you no eyes?!?!?

Collins plays against bench talent and still looks lumbering and oft lost. Chief plays with sieves up front AND guards the elites. Chief is the glue.

At this point this is a careful-what-you-wish-for scenario. Besides, we've been playing good basketball without him, and 4th quarters against the Suns with him. Can't we just focus on winning and revisit Zach in a couple of seasons?

Be me to it.

 

[THE HCP]

I hear a commercial advertisement.

When I read the German or Brazilian guys posts, I always read them in Borat's voice!

 

[Natebishop3]

I just really wish we hadn't wasted so many assets to draft a huge project. It's super annoying.

It was like Neil was saying, "hmmmm..... it didn't work with Meyers when I drafted him at 11.... but it will SURELY work this time when I draft this other extremely raw white guy big man at 10!"

 

[bobf]

Seemed like the Kanter thread was kinda veering off topic so figured I'd dredge this one up to talk about Collins.

Some people like Aminu. Cool. I don't. And I don't think the numbers say that Aminu should play 30mpg while Zach gets DNP-CD'd.

Zach's offensive ORPM is about -1.9 points/48 worse than Chief's. Just as a benchmark that means if Zach took all 36 minutes from Chief it would cost us about 4 games on the season.

But it should not be Zach vs Aminu. I'm all for Zach getting lots of minutes. Just not Aminu's minutes. Take them from Kanter. I wouldn't even mind trying to start Zach just so long as Aminu gets his full share of minutes. Maybe Zach will mesh better with the starters and Aminu will do fine with the backup unit. Aminu is a top 12-18 starter at his position for the past 5 years. You don't take his minutes just to experiment with Zach.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Zach's offensive ORPM is about -1.9 points/48 worse than Chief's. Just as a benchmark that means if Zach took all 36 minutes from Chief it would cost us about 4 games on the season.

But it should not be Zach vs Aminu. I'm all for Zach getting lots of minutes. Just not Aminu's minutes. Take them from Kanter. I wouldn't even mind trying to start Zach just so long as Aminu gets his full share of minutes. Maybe Zach will mesh better with the starters and Aminu will do fine with the backup unit. Aminu is a top 12-18 starter at his position for the past 5 years. You don't take his minutes just to experiment with Zach.

I'm all over the place with Zach, probably the guy on the team I have the most conflicted feelings for so if you dig you could probably find me saying something else lol.
I think it depends on if they really think Zach is the future or not. If they really believe in Zach then I think wasting the end of this year on Kanter and Aminu two guys who will probably be gone seems like a very short-sighted play. If they think Zach "might" be the future but isn't ready then I guess this is ok. I really liked the hood signing, I'm not really sure about Kanter, I think he "can" help the offense for the 2nd unit and get 2nd chance points, but his defense is really bad, also he doesn't seem that impactful on the offensive end when being posted up, it just slows down everyone and makes the 2nd unit stagnate. The Kanter signing (@BonesJones got it right this time heh), takes away development time from Zach to me and that's the worst part of it.

 

[James lamphear]

I am big fan of Zach but I know he not ready to start right now. Now at times he has shown what he capable of doing but he has to that all the time. But he he is young so he got time. But I like to see a big jump next year. So this off season I like to see him shooting coach and continue to get stronger.

 

[BonesJones]

I'm all over the place with Zach, probably the guy on the team I have the most conflicted feelings for so if you dig you could probably find me saying something else lol.
I think it depends on if they really think Zach is the future or not. If they really believe in Zach then I think wasting the end of this year on Kanter and Aminu two guys who will probably be gone seems like a very short-sighted play. If they think Zach "might" be the future but isn't ready then I guess this is ok. I really liked the hood signing, I'm not really sure about Kanter, I think he "can" help the offense for the 2nd unit and get 2nd chance points, but his defense is really bad, also he doesn't seem that impactful on the offensive end when being posted up, it just slows down everyone and makes the 2nd unit stagnate. The Kanter signing (@BonesJones gotta right this time heh), takes away development time from Zach to me and that's the worst part of it.

I gotta right? What if I wanna left?

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

I gotta right? What if I wanna left?

lol, well I got the signing Kanter part right.

 

[BonesJones]

I just really wish we hadn't wasted so many assets to draft a huge project. It's super annoying.

It was like Neil was saying, "hmmmm..... it didn't work with Meyers when I drafted him at 11.... but it will SURELY work this time when I draft this other extremely raw white guy big man at 10!"

I don't Neil considers race when drafting. Outside of that, any big man at that point in the draft can usually be considered "raw".