tl;dr article about what to do with Oden

[3RA1N1AC]

blargh, you would think that we would have at least put something out there..., although conley sr. is banking on a healthy season and a max deal i bet

 

[PapaG]

That's still conjecture on your part as to what happened last October, PapaG. Since none of us were party to the discussions, we have no way of knowing what was said and whether Greg felt he was slighted by the Blazers. All I know is that reports at the time were that both sides agreed not to enter into contract extension discussions because of the uncertainty of Greg's status coming back from a major injury. My reading is that the Blazers weren't comfortable then offering a max deal and Greg didn't want to settle for less than that, instead hoping to prove he was worth a max contract by his play this past season. Since both sides knew that the Blazers would have another chance to offer a max contract before June 30, I don't think that it's likely that Greg was particularly offended by putting it off until then. Unfortunately, another microfracture surgery put that scenario out of the picture. Still, I don't see any reason to believe that Greg is so offended by the turn of events that he'd pass on a max contract if one were offered. Since that's all conjecture on my part, I guess we'll just have to agree to wait and see how it plays out.

Mike Conley Sr. disagrees, though. That may be posturing on his part, but at this point, why does he even need to posture? Either the Blazers offer a Bird Rights contract after the Finals, or Oden accepts the Q.O. and becomes a UFA next summer, or Oden declines the Q.O. and becomes a RFA this summer. At this point, I don't see why Oden's agent would need to say anything, yet he put out that Greg was a bit stung by not being offered an extension.

I'll give Cho and the Gang the benefit of the doubt by thinking that Oden would be healthy last season, but in retrospect, it could be a very bad decision.

 

[Rhal]

I'm with whoever thinks "We should do anything to keep Oden". We are screwed Salary wise for at least the next 4 years and this would just screw us for the next 6 years if Oden doesn't pan out. I'v said it a few times and i'll say it again, I think without GO we will be middling Playoff team that never gets passed the second round. If you want to win a championship in the foreseeable future then keeping GO is a must.
We already have drafted the person who is considered the biggest bust of all time by a lot of the media (damnit Bowie!) so why don't we take on the mantle of "worst contract offer ever" and try and keep the only real shot at a championship in the next six years alive.

 

[magnifier661]

Mike Conley Sr. disagrees, though. That may be posturing on his part, but at this point, why does he even need to posture? Either the Blazers offer a Bird Rights contract after the Finals, or Oden accepts the Q.O. and becomes a UFA next summer, or Oden declines the Q.O. and becomes a RFA this summer. At this point, I don't see why Oden's agent would need to say anything, yet he put out that Greg was a bit stung by not being offered an extension.

I'll give Cho and the Gang the benefit of the doubt by thinking that Oden would be healthy last season, but in retrospect, it could be a very bad decision.

Okay so if Oden rejects the QO and becomes a RFA, then let's say Miami offers 12 mil for 3 years; we can match that and keep Oden for that amount of time?

 

[e_blazer]

Mike Conley Sr. disagrees, though. That may be posturing on his part, but at this point, why does he even need to posture? Either the Blazers offer a Bird Rights contract after the Finals, or Oden accepts the Q.O. and becomes a UFA next summer, or Oden declines the Q.O. and becomes a RFA this summer. At this point, I don't see why Oden's agent would need to say anything, yet he put out that Greg was a bit stung by not being offered an extension.

I'll give Cho and the Gang the benefit of the doubt by thinking that Oden would be healthy last season, but in retrospect, it could be a very bad decision.

I think that's a pretty accurate assessment of the options for this summer. I'm sure that Greg would prefer it if the Blazers had given him the golden ticket last fall. I'm also pretty sure that Cho thought he was just hedging his bets and knew that he'd have another shot this spring. Obviously, Greg's second injury removed any chance that the Blazers may have had to feel less at risk in offering a max deal to Oden this spring. If I were Greg's agent, I'd be doing everything I could right now to turn the heat up on Cho and push him to make a max offer in order to avoid the risk of playing the RFA market or having Greg take the risk on the 1 year qualifying offer in order to be a FA next year. Looks to me like that's what Conley is doing. These games of chicken are always interesting when viewed from the sidelines.

 

[Rhal]

Okay so if Oden rejects the QO and becomes a RFA, then let's say Miami offers 12 mil for 3 years; we can match that and keep Oden for that amount of time?

Yep, we can match any offer that Oden is given as long as we have offered him the QO

 

[e_blazer]

Okay so if Oden rejects the QO and becomes a RFA, then let's say Miami offers 12 mil for 3 years; we can match that and keep Oden for that amount of time?

Yup. The only real risk is if Greg accepts the qualifying offer, plays out next season and becomes an unrestricted free agent the following summer.

 

[Rhal]

Yup. The only real risk is if Greg accepts the qualifying offer, plays out next season and becomes an unrestricted free agent the following summer.

We can offer him an extension with his bird rights intact if he takes the QO I believe.

 

[RR7]

For the simple reason that it's good for a few owners, but not for them all. Ask Herb Kohl, the Maloof brothers or Dan Gilbert how they feel about their current situation. I bet their argument would be that the NFL should be the model, which gets record ratings by having great teams in places like Green Bay and Pittsburgh. You don't need the Giants, Jets, Bears to go far in the playoffs or even a franchise in LA to dominate professional sports. The last thing the NBA owners want to see is what's happened to MLB; where smaller franchises are just farm teams for the glamour franchises.

Big problem with comparing it to the NFL is it is simple to have one giant TV contract for the NFL, with all of their games on the same two days. It's unrealistic for there to be one giant all encompassing TV deal for the NBA, or MLB, and so it isn't an equal comparison.

As for the MLB critique, it seems to me there is just as much, if not mroe variation of MLB teams winning as there is in the NFL. It's not "always the Yankees and Red Sox", people just like to complain as if it is.

 

[PapaG]

We can offer him an extension with his bird rights intact if he takes the QO I believe.

True, but the Blazers los ethe right to match at that point. Which means the only benefit is another year and more money on a deal very near the max. So ... if that's what Oden ends up with, then the Blazers should have just offered a max extension last summer and saved the team a year. It would have been viewed at the time as bidding against themselves, but at this point, the only real plus (Bird Rights) if Oden accepts the Q.O. isn't a realistic option, and if it is, then the team goofed by not offering the 5-year max deal that they offered Brandon Roy, or the LMA extension, at the very least.

 

[PapaG]

Big problem with comparing it to the NFL is it is simple to have one giant TV contract for the NFL, with all of their games on the same two days. It's unrealistic for there to be one giant all encompassing TV deal for the NBA, or MLB, and so it isn't an equal comparison.

As for the MLB critique, it seems to me there is just as much, if not mroe variation of MLB teams winning as there is in the NFL. It's not "always the Yankees and Red Sox", people just like to complain as if it is.

I can't speak for Gilbert or Kohl, but the Maloofs seem to be coming out ahead on their deal even if they stay in Sacto, just as Clay Bennett came out ahead with the Sonics. As for Kohl and Gilbert, thre are always going to be struggling franchises, even in the NFL. The real barometers are attendance and TV ratings, and both have increased sigificantly since the "Superteam" was constructed last summer. I just don't see how the players would accept any deal that restricts player movement/free agency.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Okay so if Oden rejects the QO and becomes a RFA, then let's say Miami offers 12 mil for 3 years; we can match that and keep Oden for that amount of time?

No. He has to actually sign it. And for that Amt, why not just sign the 9m qo and be ufa next yr?

 

[e_blazer]

No. He has to actually sign it. And for that Amt, why not just sign the 9m qo and be ufa next yr?

I agree he'd pass on the 3 year, $12 mil offer, but nobody's going to low ball him like that. He's going to get bigger offers than that as a RFA and the Blazers could match whatever one he signs. Passing up on those offers for the prospect of being a UFA next year, you'd think he'd have to be at least a bit worried about another injury (or an inability to come back from the last one at a star level), not to mention the prospect of a hard cap, that might make passing on a deal this summer look pretty dumb.

 

[BBert]

I don't want to, and am not ready to, give up on Greg. So, I asked myself 'why?' I can't remember a single other player who ever gave me "a basketball woody" the way Greg Oden did when he was on the court. Or a player who made me watch the game, anxiously and excitedly waiting for him to go onto the court. That's one reason.

The second reason: Greg's vaunted size, strength, talent and ability. I'll leave the per and all the offensive and defensive statistics for others to cite, but Greg Oden isn't a man, he's a Manster.

A third reason is my belief/understanding that Greg's specific injuries are not of the career threatening kind. He has had two microfracture surgeries. There is no known reason why he can't come back from those and play up to his potential. He broke a bone (kneecap). Bones heal. This isn't a Brandon Roy situation, where the man is a shell of his former self and cannot be rehabilitated. Logically, Greg should recover from his injuries/surgeries and be almost good as new. Maybe better, and certainly pain free.

Now the down side: Greg "seems" to be "injury prone." He "seems" to have some kind of structural problem that increases his liklihood of these injuries. There is a body of statistical fact to back up that thesis. That's the risk.

Right now, using Paul Allen's money, I'm willing to take that risk. Bill Walton got us a championship on one of his rare good years. Greg Oden can do the same. On the flip side: No Greg Oden = No Championship, maybe in my lifetime. I guess that's a fourth reason.

I vote: Make a deal and sign the man. It's worth the gamble.

 

[Rhal]

I agree he'd pass on the 3 year, $12 mil offer, but nobody's going to low ball him like that. He's going to get bigger offers than that as a RFA and the Blazers could match whatever one he signs. Passing up on those offers for the prospect of being a UFA next year, you'd think he'd have to be at least a bit worried about another injury (or an inability to come back from the last one at a star level), not to mention the prospect of a hard cap, that might make passing on a deal this summer look pretty dumb.

I remember a lot of talk a few months back about minny trying to land Oden with a HUGE offer. There was talk of Khan being willing to offer 5Y 68M and bonuses to up it to almost 75 mill.

 

[Rhal]

Is there anyway to structure the Max 6 year deal to be something like 60 Mill guaranteed but the other 50 Mill come in easy and hard to get incentives, like you play 50-60-70 games a year each one of those nets you 1 more mill, if we get to the playoffs 1 more mill, finals 3 mill, ect?

 

[maxiep]

Big problem with comparing it to the NFL is it is simple to have one giant TV contract for the NFL, with all of their games on the same two days. It's unrealistic for there to be one giant all encompassing TV deal for the NBA, or MLB, and so it isn't an equal comparison.

You can equal it out through full revenue sharing.

As for the MLB critique, it seems to me there is just as much, if not mroe variation of MLB teams winning as there is in the NFL. It's not "always the Yankees and Red Sox", people just like to complain as if it is.

Tell that to the Royals and A's who have given up their best prospects because they couldn't afford them.

 

[maxiep]

I just don't see how the players would accept any deal that restricts player movement/free agency.

Easy. The owners after a long lockout which strain player finances offer them a ridiculously low BRI with current player movement/free agency or they offer a much higher BRI take but a franchise tag. The players care about cash money first and foremost. They'll flush the player movement for more shekels.

 

[SnakeOiler]

We'd be the laughing stock of the league. There is a pretty stark difference between paying what it takes to keep him, and giving him the max.

Why the fuck do you care who laughs at you?!!! Fuck them laugh all you want. Do what is right.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Whatever happens I'm just nervous as hell that Rich Cho and Larry Miller are spearheading these talks with Conley, Sr.

 

[RR7]

You can equal it out through full revenue sharing.



Tell that to the Royals and A's who have given up their best prospects because they couldn't afford them.

Who has KC lost? They suck because of pure awful management, nothing else.

 

[Draco]

Giving Greg a max offer would be retarded. Some of you are so paranoid about any chance of Oden leaving the team you're willing to do anything possible to stop that from happening. RELAX.

If you give Oden a 6yr $60mil offer I bet he takes it. Theres no need to spend an extra $30mil+ that could potentially hamstring this franchise down the road.

This team will never be able to compete if we have to give every potential impact player double the contract as other teams. We hastily gave huge contracts to Zach, Damon, Miles, and Theo Ratliff out of the same paranoia. Those type of contracts set a team back years. As long as we offer more money to Oden than other teams he will take it, there is no need to go overboard and potentially end up with one of the worst contracts in the NBA.

 

[e_blazer]

Giving Greg a max offer would be retarded. Some of you are so paranoid about any chance of Oden leaving the team you're willing to do anything possible to stop that from happening. RELAX.

If you give Oden a 6yr $60mil offer I bet he takes it. Theres no need to spend an extra $30mil+ that could potentially hamstring this franchise down the road.

This team will never be able to compete if we have to give every potential impact player double the contract as other teams. We hastily gave huge contracts to Zach, Damon, Miles, and Theo Ratliff out of the same paranoia. Those type of contracts set a team back years. As long as we offer more money to Oden than other teams he will take it, there is no need to go overboard and potentially end up with one of the worst contracts in the NBA.

Here's the thing: you're operating under the assumption that the Blazers will be able to operate in trying to re-sign Oden under the same set of rules as exist in the current CBA. If the reports about what the owners are pushing for the new CBA are at all correct, that may be totally unrealistic. A hard cap at less of a salary cap than what exists now may preclude the Blazers being able to offer Greg a new deal at all. The reports that there may be no sign-and-trade provisions may make it so that there's no way they can even get any value for him if he goes to another team. I doubt that it ends up being that restrictive, but the point is that we have no idea what the new CBA will and won't allow. Sitting back and passing on Oden before June 30th could really bite the Blazers in the butt.

 

[maxiep]

Who has KC lost? They suck because of pure awful management, nothing else.

Zack Greinke, Mike Sweeney, Mike MacDougal, Jermaine Dye, Johnny Damon, etc., etc.

 

[Draco]

Here's the thing: you're operating under the assumption that the Blazers will be able to operate in trying to re-sign Oden under the same set of rules as exist in the current CBA. If the reports about what the owners are pushing for the new CBA are at all correct, that may be totally unrealistic. A hard cap at less of a salary cap than what exists now may preclude the Blazers being able to offer Greg a new deal at all. The reports that there may be no sign-and-trade provisions may make it so that there's no way they can even get any value for him if he goes to another team. I doubt that it ends up being that restrictive, but the point is that we have no idea what the new CBA will and won't allow. Sitting back and passing on Oden before June 30th could really bite the Blazers in the butt.

OMG we don't know exactly what the CBA will look like so give Greg a max deal ASAP or he may leave!!!

 

[BrianFromWA]

Wrong. Giving Oden a max deal means there is NO CHANCE that he leaves without compensation. Not doing it means that you probably only get one more year out of him, and he leaves with no compensation.

It's odd to me that people who are complaining about "an extra 30M" aren't worried about the 4 years + QO that we've given so far, but worried about paying a high-producing 7' player in his absolute prime 4-5 years from now.

 

[Denny Crane]

Wrong. Giving Oden a max deal means there is NO CHANCE that he leaves without compensation. Not doing it means that you probably only get one more year out of him, and he leaves with no compensation.

It's odd to me that people who are complaining about "an extra 30M" aren't worried about the 4 years + QO that we've given so far, but worried about paying a high-producing 7' player in his absolute prime 4-5 years from now.

You pay him, you might get to watch him play 20 games next year and get you drooling over how great he's going to be... before the next injury.

It's a HUGE gamble, so I think you let him go get his max offer and decide to match it or not. As an RFA.

 

[PapaG]

Which teams are under the cap this summer and could offer Oden a big contract if he chooses to become a RFA?

 

[3RA1N1AC]

Zack Greinke, Mike Sweeney, Mike MacDougal, Jermaine Dye, Johnny Damon, etc., etc.

carlos beltran

 

[RR7]

Zack Greinke, Mike Sweeney, Mike MacDougal, Jermaine Dye, Johnny Damon, etc., etc.

Mike Sweeney? They actually SHOULD have traded Sweeney, when they could have gotten value for him. he left KC when he was 33 years old, and washed up. Nice try. And, he went to Oakland. Funny, since they can't get anyone, as they were mentioned along with KC in your original post.

MacDougal? Again, see, poor management. If he was their top prospect, the issue wasn't being able to hold onto guys, but who their top prospects were. Dye also went to Oakland, which is funny. Since they are another cheap team as you said. And they paid him well. And the White Sox got a good deal on him. They easily could have kept him at the 5 a year Chicago paid. And etc. etc. etc.? Bullshit. That's about the only good players KC has had in the last 20 years. I'll give you Damon, beltran and Greinke.
Of course, it happens to every team. Should the Cubs bemoan the structure of MLB because they lost Greg Maddux as a free agent?