Tom Haberstroh: "CJ McCollum is a garbage-time all-star"

[PtldPlatypus]

https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelp...arbage-time-all-stars?cid=NBAInsiderNorthwest

Fun fact: McCollum is a card-carrying member of the 50/40/90 shooting club -- as long as we’re talking about garbage time. (For those who don’t know, the 50/40/90 shooting club is reserved for those who shoot at least 50 percent from the floor, 40 percent from deep and 90 percent from the line. This is the elite of the elite). The Portland shooting guard is shooting 51 percent from the floor, 42 percent from deep and 91 percent from the charity stripe in these blowout situations. He fits the same profile as Thompson -- an elite shooter who rarely gets to the free-throw line. He’s also someone who, until last postseason, had struggled to put up the same caliber of numbers in the postseason as the regular season.

McCollum is still a super talented scorer in tighter situations (21.4 points per 36 minutes), but he finds himself on this list because both his usage and efficiency rise when the game’s stakes are lowest. This is best illustrated by his whopping 25.4 points per 36 minutes in garbage time. The Blazers would probably benefit by figuring out how to have McCollum more involved in crunchtime simply to lessen the burden on Damian Lillard and make the offense more democratic.

 

[B-Roy]

There is probably a correlation between the two. This may be anecdotal, but usually we blow teams out when CJ gets hot.

 

[Cugel]

The fact that he's on the same list as Klay and Russ says he's doing something right. Beal is no slouch either; Zach has never been on a decent team.

 

[jlprk]

There is probably a correlation between the two. This may be anecdotal, but usually we blow teams out when CJ gets hot.

The article says he gets hot when we blow teams out. Which comes first, the chicken or the egg? What is the direction of causation?

 

[e_blazer]

Pretty sure that the last game against the Clippers wasn't decided until CJ torched them in the 4th quarter.

 

[HailBlazers]

Yea, how does he, or one define garbage time?

 

[CupWizier]

https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelp...arbage-time-all-stars?cid=NBAInsiderNorthwest

Fun fact: McCollum is a card-carrying member of the 50/40/90 shooting club -- as long as we’re talking about garbage time. (For those who don’t know, the 50/40/90 shooting club is reserved for those who shoot at least 50 percent from the floor, 40 percent from deep and 90 percent from the line. This is the elite of the elite). The Portland shooting guard is shooting 51 percent from the floor, 42 percent from deep and 91 percent from the charity stripe in these blowout situations. He fits the same profile as Thompson -- an elite shooter who rarely gets to the free-throw line. He’s also someone who, until last postseason, had struggled to put up the same caliber of numbers in the postseason as the regular season.

McCollum is still a super talented scorer in tighter situations (21.4 points per 36 minutes), but he finds himself on this list because both his usage and efficiency rise when the game’s stakes are lowest. This is best illustrated by his whopping 25.4 points per 36 minutes in garbage time. The Blazers would probably benefit by figuring out how to have McCollum more involved in crunchtime simply to lessen the burden on Damian Lillard and make the offense more democratic.

So, McCollum is an all star then.

 

[wizenheimer]

kind of a strange premise, but interesting I guess. This may also have something to do with the notion that Stotts tends to leave his starters in longer in blow-out situations; and CJ may be more inclined to go iso when possessions aren't as important

probably something to it because CJ ranks 7th on the team in winshares/48 and 8th in BPM. He shouldn't be that low considering he takes about 30% of the FGA's of the starters

 

[stampedehero]

CJ is a hard worker (when he wants to).

 

[Cugel]

In order for this statistic to be informative you would have to know:
1) The score when CJ entered last the game
2) His performance during this period
3) The score after he left the game
This article makes it sound like Stotts puts CJ in during "garbage" time which we know is not true.

 

[blue9]

McCollum is still a super talented scorer in tighter situations (21.4 points per 36 minutes), but he finds himself on this list because both his usage and efficiency rise when the game’s stakes are lowest. This is best illustrated by his whopping 25.4 points per 36 minutes in garbage time.

So, his PP36 increase by a whopping 4 points in garbage time vs the rest of the time he plays? Fucking amazing. Get this guy a basketball analysis award for this paradigm-shifting insight.

 

[BBert]

One thing that jumps out at me in this article, is that "garbage time" as the author defines it can happen at any time during a game, not merely the end of a 4th quarter of a blowout. So for example, when CJ goes on a hot streak in the first quarter (or any quarter) and pushes the lead to 20 or more points, this article defines that as garbage time. Umm...yeah.

 

[handiman]

He’s also someone who, until last postseason, had struggled to put up the same caliber of numbers in the postseason as the regular season.

I question the accuracy of that premise. CJ's per-36 numbers aren't much lower in the playoffs than in the regular season.

FG%: 0.456
3PT%: 0.402
FT%: 0.841
REB: 3.8
AST: 3.5
PTS: 21.5

FG%: .438
3PT%: .396
FT%: .822
REB: 5.0
AST: 3.0
PTS: 27.0

Shooting percentages and assists are down slightly, while scoring and rebounds are way up. You'd expect some drop in everyone's stats when a team loses 10 straight, so I look at those numbers as CJ elevating his game significantly in the playoffs, barely being brought down efficiency-wise by the struggles of everyone around him.

Also, last year's playoffs helped his 2PT% avg a lot, but not much impact on overall shooting or scoring. So, not only does he not struggle in the playoffs, the last postseason isn't even the saving grace like stated.

 

[RR7]

One thing that jumps out at me in this article, is that "garbage time" as the author defines it can happen at any time during a game, not merely the end of a 4th quarter of a blowout. So for example, when CJ goes on a hot streak in the first quarter (or any quarter) and pushes the lead to 20 or more points, this article defines that as garbage time. Umm...yeah.

Thanks for pointing that out. That's just moronic

 

[CupWizier]

One thing that jumps out at me in this article, is that "garbage time" as the author defines it can happen at any time during a game, not merely the end of a 4th quarter of a blowout. So for example, when CJ goes on a hot streak in the first quarter (or any quarter) and pushes the lead to 20 or more points, this article defines that as garbage time. Umm...yeah.

Yeah, that seems a bit strange and then to label it garbage time. When I first saw the headline it looked like it might be an article about players padding stats.

 

[kjironman1]

Like @B-Roy said. There is a huge benefit to CJ having a good game. When he scores well this team is very tough to beat. It's not the other way around. The Blazers create "Garbage Time" by being very very hard to beat when three players are effective. When CJ is hitting shots they cannot guard Dame and Nurk. That is just the way it is.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Like @B-Roy said. There is a huge benefit to CJ having a good game. When he scores well this team is very tough to beat. It's not the other way around. The Blazers create "Garbage Time" by being very very hard to beat when three players are effective. When CJ is hitting shots they cannot guard Dame and Nurk. That is just the way it is.

Isnt that kind of true for Moe, Layman, Aminu, Hood, etc. Anytime you have someone who isnt your 1st option playing well it helps everybody else.

 

[B-Roy]

I question the accuracy of that premise. CJ's per-36 numbers aren't much lower in the playoffs than in the regular season.

FG%: 0.456
3PT%: 0.402
FT%: 0.841
REB: 3.8
AST: 3.5
PTS: 21.5

FG%: .438
3PT%: .396
FT%: .822
REB: 5.0
AST: 3.0
PTS: 27.0

Shooting percentages and assists are down slightly, while scoring and rebounds are way up. You'd expect some drop in everyone's stats when a team loses 10 straight, so I look at those numbers as CJ elevating his game significantly in the playoffs, barely being brought down efficiency-wise by the struggles of everyone around him.

Also, last year's playoffs helped his 2PT% avg a lot, but not much impact on overall shooting or scoring. So, not only does he not struggle in the playoffs, the last postseason isn't even the saving grace like stated.

CJ averages 19.6 points per 36 in the playoffs. You're taking per 100 possessions.

 

[BBert]

Thanks for pointing that out. That's just moronic

In fact, what I should have said is any time CJ is in the game while we push the lead beyond 15 points (not 20). He refers to such an event as the game being out of hand and defines a 15 point lead as therefore garbage time. Which is nonsense. Teams routinely go up by 15 or more points, and the other team routinely goes on a run to even the game back up. The only time a 15 point lead in the NBA is garbage time, is when there is mathematically not enough time in the game to make a full comeback. And that is never during the first 3 quarters.

 

[handiman]

CJ averages 19.6 points per 36 in the playoffs. You're taking per 100 possessions.

Ah shoot, you're right. Clicking on the anchor links on basketball-reference.com jumps to a spot where the nav banner covers that section's header, and I scrolled down one section on the playoff stats without noticing it.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mccolcj01.html#all_per_minute
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mccolcj01.html#all_playoffs_per_minute

So, the percentages were right but the pts/rebs/ast numbers were off. CJ's scoring (per-36) drops from 21.5 to 19.6 in the playoffs. Still not enough to say he's struggled.

 

[CupWizier]

Isnt that kind of true for Moe, Layman, Aminu, Hood, etc. Anytime you have someone who isnt your 1st option playing well it helps everybody else.

Isnt that kind of true for Moe, Layman, Aminu, Hood, etc. Anytime you have someone who isnt your 1st option playing well it helps everybody else.

Sure, but to a much smaller extent. Those guys getting 15 points or so is nice but not near as nice as a guy that averages around 21ppg and can frequently hit 30's for you

 

[kjironman1]

Isnt that kind of true for Moe, Layman, Aminu, Hood, etc. Anytime you have someone who isnt your 1st option playing well it helps everybody else.

Absolutely. When Aminu or Moe hit shots this team is very tough. You have watched Layman and Hood turn a game into a blowout.

 

[jlprk]

One thing that jumps out at me in this article, is that "garbage time" as the author defines it can happen at any time during a game, not merely the end of a 4th quarter of a blowout. So for example, when CJ goes on a hot streak in the first quarter (or any quarter) and pushes the lead to 20 or more points, this article defines that as garbage time. Umm...yeah.

The writer should emulate my Shakespearian-quality writing style. When we had Aldridge, I wrote the same thing.

I used to write in response to his fanboys that Aldridge pads his points, which I defined as--most of his points come in the low-pressure cruising moments of the game, not when clutch points are needed. The turning points, instead of the bulk stretches, of the game were when Roy or Lillard shone.

 

[riverman]

low-pressure cruising moments of the game, not when clutch points are needed.

Nobody noticed because that's when they are busy ordering nachos, going for a smoke or peeing out that last beer...although really it was JJ Hickson' claim to fame more than Aldridge's

 

[jlprk]

Bring back Hickson, Oden, Sergio, and Khryapa. Gone too soon.

 

[e_blazer]

I guess I must be missing something because I thought points scored during the regular flow of the game counted the same as those during “crunch time”, however that’s defined. On a team that has Lillard, is it surprising that CJ’s production during the final 30 seconds isn’t as strong as during the rest of the game? Stotts, rightfully, puts the ball in Dame’s hands if the game is on the line then. And that’s another stupid thing about the article, are all last 30 seconds the same? Some are truly pressure situations, but much of the time the game is already decided.

This article reads like the author is a closet Clippers fan who wanted to do a hatchet job on CJ after he destroyed the Clips with that monster 4th quarter.

 

[B-Roy]

I guess I must be missing something because I thought points scored during the regular flow of the game counted the same as those during “crunch time”, however that’s defined. On a team that has Lillard, is it surprising that CJ’s production during the final 30 seconds isn’t as strong as during the rest of the game? Stotts, rightfully, puts the ball in Dame’s hands if the game is on the line then. And that’s another stupid thing about the article, are all last 30 seconds the same? Some are truly pressure situations, but much of the time the game is already decided.

This article reads like the author is a closet Clippers fan who wanted to do a hatchet job on CJ after he destroyed the Clips with that monster 4th quarter.

Not really....CJ isn't the only player named in the article. The analysis isn't very well thought out, but it doesn't really seem like there's any personal bias.

 

[riverman]

Bring back Hickson, Oden, Sergio, and Khryapa. Gone too soon.

How could you leave Sasha Pavlovic off the list though?

 

[BBert]

Not really....CJ isn't the only player named in the article. The analysis isn't very well thought out, but it doesn't really seem like there's any personal bias.

Or value