Top-10 C's

[wizenheimer]

with Nurk's free agency I thought it would be interesting to try and rank the top-10 C's in the league and where Nurk fits on the list. So then....

unquestioned top-10:

Embiid
Jokic
Abedayo
KAT
Gobert

more deserving than Nurkic:

Jarret Allen
Valanciunas
Steven Adams

arguably as good with more upside:

Wendall Carter Jr.
Evan Mobley
Robert Williams
Deandre Ayton
Myles Turner

open for debate (maybe a lot):

Nikola Vucevic
Clint Capela
Mitchel Robinson
Isaiah Hartenstein
Richaun Holmes
Jakob Poeltl

I think the last group may be mostly influenced by individual contracts. For instance, I think I'd rather have Poeltl at 9M than Nurkic at 18M

 

[Mediocre Man]

Great post

 

[HailBlazers]

Yay, more Nurk hate

 

[Sheldon Shape]

Steven Adams is more deserving than Nurk? Myles Turner?

In what world?

 

[wizenheimer]

Steven Adams is more deserving than Nurk? Myles Turner?

In what world?

I didn't say Turner was more deserving

I did say Adams is and I believe it

Yay, more Nurk hate

please explain where the "hate" is.

 

[e_blazer]

Which version of Nurk are we comparing to; Bosnian Beast, post broken leg out of shape Nurk, or recovered Nurk from the end of last season?

 

[wizenheimer]

Which version of Nurk are we comparing to; Bosnian Beast, post broken leg out of shape Nurk, or recovered Nurk from the end of last season?

he's almost 28 and has been in the NBA for 8 seasons; he's played 427 games and started 81% of the games he's played. How small a sample size do you want to isolate?

 

[e_blazer]

he's almost 28 and has been in the NBA for 8 seasons; he's played 427 games and started 81% of the games he's played. How small a sample size do you want to isolate?

I haven’t looked at the stats (primarily because I’m lazy and get bored easily), but my overall sense is that Nurk regressed a bunch after the broken leg and it really wasn’t until the end of last season that he was moving the way he did his first couple of seasons here. I also think that Nurk is a bit of a head case who needs proper motivation. Chauncey seemed to get more out of him than Terry. I think Nurk is a bit of a crap shoot, but I think he’s good enough and we need to spend our money at other spots.

 

[wizenheimer]

I haven’t looked at the stats (primarily because I’m lazy and get bored easily), but my overall sense is that Nurk regressed a bunch after the broken leg and it really wasn’t until the end of last season that he was moving the way he did his first couple of seasons here. I also think that Nurk is a bit of a head case who needs proper motivation. Chauncey seemed to get more out of him than Terry. I think Nurk is a bit of a crap shoot, but I think he’s good enough and we need to spend our money at other spots.

I don't disagree with that although I will say I think taking nearly 3 years to regain form after a broken leg is a really long time

I'm fine with re-signing Nurkic. He works well with Dame and he doesn't cost a draft pick or an MLE to sign him. He may even improve enough to be a top-10 C but his health is a big issue and as you say he seems a bit of a head case easy to throw off stride

I don't want the Blazers to overpay though but it's hard to peg that exact salary 12M would be great; 15M ok; 18M an overpay

 

[noknobs]

please explain where the "hate" is.

I did say Adams is and I believe it

There, you've answered your own question.

he's almost 28 and has been in the NBA for 8 seasons; he's played 427 games and started 81% of the games he's played. How small a sample size do you want to isolate?

Steven Adams is a few weeks away from being 29 and he's been in the league for 9 years, so I'm curious why you're giving these stats as a criticism?

 

[Graduate32]

Steven Adams has been played off the floor in virtually every playoff series he's been a part of since Durant left OKC. I think you may have had a case for Steven Adams 5 years ago, but he's not nearly the same player in today's NBA environment. Unless you're a team that's only looking for rugged toughness for a few minutes a game, even average Nurkic is the better bet.

Now that said, Ayton and Robert Williams are both more valuable than Nurk. Evan Mobley will certainly get there shortly. I think Myles Turner and Poetl have become extremely overrated in the media sphere. I'd take Nurk over both at even a moderately higher price tag (certainly Poetl).

 

[RR7]

I definitely wouldn't have Adams over him, and I think Turner is who he is, otherwise good list.

 

[wizenheimer]

Steven Adams is a few weeks away from being 29 and he's been in the league for 9 years, so I'm curious why you're giving these stats as a criticism?

I wasn't saying that as a criticism of Nurkic. I was pointing to the fact that Nurkic has an 8 year career, 81% of it as a starter, so cherry picking a much smaller sample size seemed like a questionable way to judge his value.

 

[Predator]

Definitely in the 4th tier although I'd switching Vuc with Adams.

 

[wizenheimer]

Steven Adams has been played off the floor in virtually every playoff series he's been a part of since Durant left OKC.

in his last 5 seasons in OKC he averaged well over 30 minutes a game in the playoffs. He's averaged 26.8 in the regular season and 26.1 in the playoffs, and his playoff mark is skewed by 18 games as a rookie

he may be less effective in the playoffs although I don't see any significant drop in his production or efficiency in the playoffs. But he hasn't been 'played off the floor. This last season he only averaged 16 minutes but he was trying to come back after reportedly being pretty sick from Covid, and traditional C's are usually neutered by the Warriors anyway

I think you may have had a case for Steven Adams 5 years ago, but he's not nearly the same player in today's NBA environment. Unless you're a team that's only looking for rugged toughness for a few minutes a game, even average Nurkic is the better bet.

average Nurkic, above average Nurkic, and below average Nurkic...they have combined for a 3-13 record in the playoffs. I'm not sure using the playoffs to gauge Nurkic is a good idea

Now that said, Ayton and Robert Williams are both more valuable than Nurk. Evan Mobley will certainly get there shortly. I think Myles Turner and Poetl have become extremely overrated in the media sphere. I'd take Nurk over both at even a moderately higher price tag (certainly Poetl).

Turner is a much better modern C than Nurkic. Trouble is he has as extensive an injury history as Nurkic

as for Poeltl:



Nurkic is a better rebounder and FT shooter, but that's about it

I'd take Nurkic if their prices were close because of the Dame connection, but Poeltl has worked himself into being a fairly effective and underrated big man

 

[Graduate32]

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in his last 5 seasons in OKC he averaged well over 30 minutes a game in the playoffs. He's averaged 26.8 in the regular season and 26.1 in the playoffs, and his playoff mark is skewed by 18 games as a rookie

he may be less effective in the playoffs although I don't see any significant drop in his production or efficiency in the playoffs. But he hasn't been 'played off the floor. This last season he only averaged 16 minutes but he was trying to come back after reportedly being pretty sick from Covid, and traditional C's are usually neutered by the Warriors anyway



average Nurkic, above average Nurkic, and below average Nurkic...they have combined for a 3-13 record in the playoffs. I'm not sure using the playoffs to gauge Nurkic is a good idea



Turner is a much better modern C than Nurkic. Trouble is he has as extensive an injury history as Nurkic

as for Poeltl:

View attachment 48207

Nurkic is a better rebounder and FT shooter, but that's about it

I'd take Nurkic if their prices were close because of the Dame connection, but Poeltl has worked himself into being a fairly effective and underrated big man

Thanks for providing stats. Perhaps "played off the floor was a little harsh" but Adans was attacked relentlessly by Dame and Harden in the pick and roll in OKC's last two playoff losses and we just witnessed Golden State's effect. Dame's monster game 5 against OKC was heavily buoyed by Adams's inability to cover the extended three-point pullup and Dame as a driver simultaneously. I wouldn't call Nurk swiftfooted by any stretch, but his better mobility and recovery ability gives him an edge in my book. Plus, you have to at least account for Nurk on offense in a way that you don't Adams... outside of the offensive glass and as a screener.

Yeah, I realize I am in the minority on Turner, but he still feels more idea than actual productivity at this point. If I could start with Turner again in 2018-19 and imagine his career arc, I'd be fully onboard. That said, his 3PG and defensive numbers have really dipped over the last three years. Is it simply an injury issue? I don't know. His profile as a stretch big man that can defend the rim and anchor a defense is appealing, but I just haven't seen it consistently in the admittedly few games (with Turner playing) that I've watched.

Poetl is a solid player overall and I could certainly be talked into his acquisition. I'll admit to worrying about his performance in high leverage moments due to the free-throw shooting, defensive rebounding, and frankly too many moments witnessed in which I've wanted to see a little more attitude and toughness from him, but that last point is probably just personal bias. To be fair, he hasn't had a ton of high-leverage moments in his San Antonio career to really say one way or other. And perhaps I've just listened to too many podcasts emphasizing his underratedness to the point that his underratedness has become overrated in my eyes.

 

[wizenheimer]

Thanks for providing stats. Perhaps "played off the floor was a little harsh" but Adans was attacked relentlessly by Dame and Harden in the pick and roll in OKC's last two playoff losses and we just witnessed Golden State's effect. Dame's monster game 5 against OKC was heavily buoyed by Adams's inability to cover the extended three-point pullup and Dame as a driver simultaneously. I wouldn't call Nurk swiftfooted by any stretch, but his better mobility and recovery ability gives him an edge in my book. Plus, you have to at least account for Nurk on offense in a way that you don't Adams... outside of the offensive glass and as a screener.

Yeah, I realize I am in the minority on Turner, but he still feels more idea than actual productivity at this point. If I could start with Turner again in 2018-19 and imagine his career arc, I'd be fully onboard. That said, his 3PG and defensive numbers have really dipped over the last three years. Is it simply an injury issue? I don't know. His profile as a stretch big man that can defend the rim and anchor a defense is appealing, but I just haven't seen it consistently in the admittedly few games (with Turner playing) that I've watched.

Poetl is a solid player overall and I could certainly be talked into his acquisition. I'll admit to worrying about his performance in high leverage moments due to the free-throw shooting, defensive rebounding, and frankly too many moments witnessed in which I've wanted to see a little more attitude and toughness from him, but that last point is probably just personal bias. To be fair, he hasn't had a ton of high-leverage moments in his San Antonio career to really say one way or other. And perhaps I've just listened to too many podcasts emphasizing his underratedness to the point that his underratedness has become overrated in my eyes.

I think my main concerns about Nurkic are him staying healthy, and when healthy, staying engaged with the flow of the game. He's simply spent too much time in street clothes. and when he hasn't, he's spent too much time drifting on the floor while putting up weak shots or throwing weak passes. When he's on, he's very good. But he's simply not on enough for my taste and he doesn't have the mobility to stay consistently effective in the modern game

 

[e_blazer]

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in his last 5 seasons in OKC he averaged well over 30 minutes a game in the playoffs. He's averaged 26.8 in the regular season and 26.1 in the playoffs, and his playoff mark is skewed by 18 games as a rookie

he may be less effective in the playoffs although I don't see any significant drop in his production or efficiency in the playoffs. But he hasn't been 'played off the floor. This last season he only averaged 16 minutes but he was trying to come back after reportedly being pretty sick from Covid, and traditional C's are usually neutered by the Warriors anyway



average Nurkic, above average Nurkic, and below average Nurkic...they have combined for a 3-13 record in the playoffs. I'm not sure using the playoffs to gauge Nurkic is a good idea



Turner is a much better modern C than Nurkic. Trouble is he has as extensive an injury history as Nurkic

as for Poeltl:

View attachment 48207

Nurkic is a better rebounder and FT shooter, but that's about it

I'd take Nurkic if their prices were close because of the Dame connection, but Poeltl has worked himself into being a fairly effective and underrated big man

Interesting stats. Thanks for the work putting this together.

One question I have relates to the changes in the league regarding the center position since the start of the Warriors era. Big dudes like Nurk are being eclipsed by slimmer, more mobile guys at the 5 spot. Do you see that as a permanent trend, or does it all get knocked back to an arms race for the bigger guys once the next Shaq or Hakeem shows up on the scene?

 

[wizenheimer]

Interesting stats. Thanks for the work putting this together.

One question I have relates to the changes in the league regarding the center position since the start of the Warriors era. Big dudes like Nurk are being eclipsed by slimmer, more mobile guys at the 5 spot. Do you see that as a permanent trend, or does it all get knocked back to an arms race for the bigger guys once the next Shaq or Hakeem shows up on the scene?

well, the next Hakeem would probably show up after a decade of working on his perimeter game and 3pt shot. Shaq was pretty damn unique in his prime. A 370 pound earth mover with great footwork. Not sure we'll see another like him

the NBA has been making traditional C's partially obsolete for a decade now, at least. I think that trend will only accelerate. It's hard to protect the rim when half of the shots come from the arc

 

[e_blazer]

well, the next Hakeem would probably show up after a decade of working on his perimeter game and 3pt shot. Shaq was pretty damn unique in his prime. A 370 pound earth mover with great footwork. Not sure we'll see another like him

the NBA has been making traditional C's partially obsolete for a decade now, at least. I think that trend will only accelerate. It's hard to protect the rim when half of the shots come from the arc

Probably true, but I was impressed during the brief window that we saw Nurk playing with Simons after Dame was shut down at how dominant he can be against some of these lighter guys. I'm hoping that plays out next fall...and that he keeps working on his perimeter shot.

 

[noknobs]

I doubt there's a single GM in the league who would take Steven Adams over Nurkic. There's a stat for you.

 

[Pinwheel1]

I remember several posters wishing we had a center like Adams until Nurk outplayed him in the OKC series.
Maybe not in the box score but to the point where even the national announcers were commenting that Adams was getting abused
by our guards. He is not a tier above Nurk

 

[andalusian]

I remember several posters wishing we had a center like Adams until Nurk outplayed him in the OKC series.
Maybe not in the box score but to the point where even the national announcers were commenting that Adams was getting abused
by our guards. He is not a tier above Nurk

What OKC series? Nurk was out in the 2019 playoffs when the Blazers took down OKC with Kanter as the starting center.

The Blazers lost 0-4 to the Thunder that year in the regular season with Nurk.

 

[wizenheimer]

I remember several posters wishing we had a center like Adams until Nurk outplayed him in the OKC series.
Maybe not in the box score but to the point where even the national announcers were commenting that Adams was getting abused
by our guards. He is not a tier above Nurk

WUT??

it wasn't Nurk who 'outplayed' Adams, it was Kanter. Nurk was MIA, again

 

[Pinwheel1]

WUT??

it wasn't Nurk who 'outplayed' Adams, it was Kanter. Nurk was MIA, again

OK, my bad. But the bottom line is it was our guards who were abusing Adams. He looked like his feet were in cement
The guy sets a good screen, not much else

 

[HailBlazers]

Nurkic is a better rebounder

Guess I'm behind the times thinking that's important for a center.