Top 30 Small Forwards for 2017-18

[Boob-No-More]

We have projected the Top 30 small forwards for 2017-18

Here's what they say about Mo:

20. MAURICE HARKLESS, PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
Harkless is one of the wings who has played in the NBA for a while already, and hasn’t been considered a good player for most of his career. That started to change last year with the Blazers, as Harkless averaged 10.0 points per game shooting 35.1 percent on three-pointers and 50.2 percent from the field overall.

The second youngest player in his draft class, Harkless just turned 24 years old heading into his sixth season in the league. He has the tools to become an excellent defender, and has improved remarkably at that end over the past two seasons under Terry Stotts. Harkless isn’t a great shooter, but has improved to around league average, though on a low number of attempts. Offensively, Harkless can post up a little bit too, and his growing versatility may surprise many in the years to come.

Agree? Disagree?

Personally, I think they are pretty much spot on. Mo isn't a bad player, but he's also not that great at anything. He's about as average as average can get. Last season, I ran a spreadsheet incorporating several basic and advanced stats for all 30 starting small forwards and Mo consistently ranked 15th - 17th in most statistically categories among starting small forwards. My conclusion was that Mo was statistically the 16th best starting small forward in the NBA.

Note: I only included starting small forwards. This article also includes back ups. So, some teams, like GSW and CLE have two small forwards ranked above Mo.

Mo is still only 24, but there are also several other players even younger ranked ahead of him and several more nipping at his heels. He could move up, or he could move down. Mo has never had a true breakout year. In fact, his improvement has been frustratingly slow, to often non-existent. I think he is who he is. He may benefit from a full season of playing next to Nurk, but I just don't see much potential for individual improvement. I think if he was capable of doing more, we would have seen it by now. So, even if Mo shows his usual very small, incremental improvement, I think multiple younger players (Tatum, Jackson, Ingram) may pass him by this time next year.

After drafting two guys that can play power forward, I think starting SF is the one position where we need the biggest upgrade. Again I don't think Mo is bad, just average at best. That's why I REALLY wanted us to get Paul George (fuck you KPee!!!) and would even be satisfied landing Carmelo Anthony if he'd ever waive that no trade clause. Carmelo isn't the "superstar" he once was, but he'd still be an upgrade over Mo at the starting small forward spot and a hell of a 3rd/4th option.

BNM

 

[Voodoo]

Think you and then article are pretty well spot on, he's a solid role player. But he seems more like the first forward off the bench more so than a starter.

 

[blue9]

I think he slots somewhere in the 10-20 range, but probably more towards the middle.

• Is Gallinari really 10 spots better? Maybe a few years ago. But I sure wouldn't take that risk now - Gallinari seems to be a walking injury.
• Harrison Barnes? More proof that average players can average 20ppg with shots. Otherwise statistically similar to Harkless...but much less efficient. Worse Ortg and worse Drtg!
  
• Joe Ingles? He averaged even less PPG than Harkless (Harkless' scoring seems to be a sticking point for many). He's almost 30, to boot!
  
• Ariza? Statistically similar to Harkless and on the wrong side of 30.

Crowder, Harris, and Covington would be minor upgrades - but are they actually available and at what cost? That's the real issue - how likely is it that we can get a SF that's significantly better than Harkless? Pretty damn slim. If you can get a Paul George or Jimmy Butler, then duh - you do it. But the young guys that project to be better aren't available. The only players who are available are lateral moves, or minor upgrades at best.

 

[BBert]

We have projected the Top 30 small forwards for 2017-18

Here's what they say about Mo:

20. MAURICE HARKLESS, PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
Harkless is one of the wings who has played in the NBA for a while already, and hasn’t been considered a good player for most of his career. That started to change last year with the Blazers, as Harkless averaged 10.0 points per game shooting 35.1 percent on three-pointers and 50.2 percent from the field overall.

The second youngest player in his draft class, Harkless just turned 24 years old heading into his sixth season in the league. He has the tools to become an excellent defender, and has improved remarkably at that end over the past two seasons under Terry Stotts. Harkless isn’t a great shooter, but has improved to around league average, though on a low number of attempts. Offensively, Harkless can post up a little bit too, and his growing versatility may surprise many in the years to come.

Agree? Disagree?

Personally, I think they are pretty much spot on. Mo isn't a bad player, but he's also not that great at anything. He's about as average as average can get. Last season, I ran a spreadsheet incorporating several basic and advanced stats for all 30 starting small forwards and Mo consistently ranked 15th - 17th in most statistically categories among starting small forwards. My conclusion was that Mo was statistically the 16th best starting small forward in the NBA.

Note: I only included starting small forwards. This article also includes back ups. So, some teams, like GSW and CLE have two small forwards ranked above Mo.

Mo is still only 24, but there are also several other players even younger ranked ahead of him and several more nipping at his heels. He could move up, or he could move down. Mo has never had a true breakout year. In fact, his improvement has been frustratingly slow, to often non-existent. I think he is who he is. He may benefit from a full season of playing next to Nurk, but I just don't see much potential for individual improvement. I think if he was capable of doing more, we would have seen it by now. So, even if Mo shows his usual very small, incremental improvement, I think multiple younger players (Tatum, Jackson, Ingram) may pass him by this time next year.

After drafting two guys that can play power forward, I think starting SF is the one position where we need the biggest upgrade. Again I don't think Mo is bad, just average at best. That's why I REALLY wanted us to get Paul George (fuck you KPee!!!) and would even be satisfied landing Carmelo Anthony if he'd ever waive that no trade clause. Carmelo isn't the "superstar" he once was, but he'd still be an upgrade over Mo at the starting small forward spot and a hell of a 3rd/4th option.

BNM

This is the year we find out Mo's ceiling. If he doesn't show improvement this season, I think all hope is lost. I'm not looking for a huge breakout for Mo -- he's pretty far down the pecking order -- but he does need to make a leap, even if just a moderate one, instead of the tiny baby steps he's been taking for the last 5 years. My eternal fan optimism hasn't given up on him though. He hasn't convinced me he can't, so I prefer to believe he can

 

[chzbrgr]

8. CARMELO ANTHONY, NEW YORK KNICKS
With a couple of months of Anthony-to-Houston trade rumors behind us, there’s a solid chance that the Rockets will not be able to find a package that satisfies the Knicks. Anthony has a no-trade clause in his contract and will need to waive it in order for a trade to take place, and that has likely been the sticking point for a team like the Trail Blazers in acquiring Anthony.

Regardless, as time passes the likelihood that Anthony is traded increases by the day – whether by him or the Knicks front office lowering their expectations – especially if the season starts and New York looks like a low-thirties win team again. At this point in his career, Anthony is probably best off playing power forward, where he doesn’t have to chase and recover to shooters. On offense, Anthony’s quickness and versatility offensively is unguardable for traditional bigs, and his strength keeps him from being overpowered in those matchups.

 

[Boob-No-More]

I think he slots somewhere in the 10-20 range, but probably more towards the middle.

• Is Gallinari really 10 spots better? Maybe a few years ago. But I sure wouldn't take that risk now - Gallinari seems to be a walking injury.
• Harrison Barnes? More proof that average players can average 20ppg with shots. Otherwise statistically similar to Harkless...but much less efficient. Worse Ortg and worse Drtg!
  
• Joe Ingles? He averaged even less PPG than Harkless (Harkless' scoring seems to be a sticking point for many). He's almost 30, to boot!
  
• Ariza? Statistically similar to Harkless and on the wrong side of 30.

Crowder, Harris, and Covington would be minor upgrades - but are they actually available and at what cost? That's the real issue - how likely is it that we can get a SF that's significantly better than Harkless? Pretty damn slim. If you can get a Paul George or Jimmy Butler, then duh - you do it. But the young guys that project to be better aren't available. The only players who are available are lateral moves, or minor upgrades at best.

Other than Melo, most of the guys who would have been better than Mo that were available have already been traded (Butler, George, Crowder, etc.).

Agreed that guys like Ingles and Ariza are probably lateral moves, perhaps with slightly better defense (again Mo doesn't suck on defense, but is average, at best, which makes him look good relative to most of his current teammates). I would gladly take Ingles as a Crabbe replacement, but agree that he wouldn't be much of an upgrade over Mo. He shoots the 3 every bit as good as Crabbe and is infinitely better defenselessly. Ingles doesn't look like he should be a good defender, but he's long, smart and most importantly puts in full effort to play defense on very possession. Everyone focuses on Gobert as the anchor of their defense, and it's true he's a great rim protector, but it was their overall team defense, with guys like Ingles and George Hill contributing on the perimeter that made UTA so good defensively last season.

So, unless we get Carmelo, we'll probably have to wait until the trade deadline and see who else becomes available. By then some teams will have failed to live up to expectations and may be looking to hit the reset button and go all in on the rebuild/youth movement. And, we'll still have that juicy $12.9 million TPE to dangle as tasty trade bait.

BNM

 

[BrunoSOC]

Moe about to average 14ppg and 8reb you will see

 

[Boob-No-More]

Moe about to average 14ppg and 8reb you will see

I like your optimism, but I think both are rather unrealistic targets - especially, the rebounding. Mo has never averaged more than 4.4 rpg in his career. So, I just don't see him averaging 8 rpg - ever.

On the scoring, his 10.o ppg was a new career high. but it took him until his 5th season to top the 8.2 ppg he averaged as a rookie. That's less than 5% improvement per season over a four year span. I just don't see him making a 40% jump in a single year at this point in his career.

BNM

 

[jonnyboy]

I think he slots somewhere in the 10-20 range, but probably more towards the middle.

• Is Gallinari really 10 spots better? Maybe a few years ago. But I sure wouldn't take that risk now - Gallinari seems to be a walking injury.
• Harrison Barnes? More proof that average players can average 20ppg with shots. Otherwise statistically similar to Harkless...but much less efficient. Worse Ortg and worse Drtg!
  
• Joe Ingles? He averaged even less PPG than Harkless (Harkless' scoring seems to be a sticking point for many). He's almost 30, to boot!
  
• Ariza? Statistically similar to Harkless and on the wrong side of 30.

Crowder, Harris, and Covington would be minor upgrades - but are they actually available and at what cost? That's the real issue - how likely is it that we can get a SF that's significantly better than Harkless? Pretty damn slim. If you can get a Paul George or Jimmy Butler, then duh - you do it. But the young guys that project to be better aren't available. The only players who are available are lateral moves, or minor upgrades at best.

Gallinari stinks. Can't stand his shitty game.

 

[blue9]

Gallinari stinks. Can't stand his shitty game.

Back before his first (?) injury, when he got traded to DEN I liked him. Honestly haven't paid any attention to him over the past few years - IMO his career is over, even if he plays for another 5 years.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

If he increases his 3FG by 2 or 3 percent and plays better defense, we'll be golden.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Moe about to average 14ppg and 8reb you will see

If Nurkic averages 5+ assists, Hark could get there.

 

[Boob-No-More]

If Nurkic averages 5+ assists, Hark could get there.

I admire your consistency!

BNM

 

[BBert]

Mo: 12ppg, 5 rpg, tough defense. That's all I need.

 

[BBert]

Semi-related question: Is Nurk the kind of center who will box out making it easier for Harkless to rebound; or will he be gobbling them up himself (maybe or maybe not due to it being a contract year)?

 

[Boob-No-More]

Semi-related question: Is Nurk the kind of center who will box out making it easier for Harkless to rebound; or will he be gobbling them up himself (maybe or maybe not due to it being a contract year)?

He's not Rolo. He's always had a excellent (DEN) to near elite (POR) TRB%. He will box out his man and aggressively chase down rebounds.

BNM

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Mo: 12ppg, 5 rpg, tough defense. That's all I need.

Last year, there were only 5 forwards who put up at least 12/5 with 35% 3p. Of those, only Otto Porter had a better DBPM than Harkless.

So I agree completely. What you listed is my benchmark for a successful season from Harkless.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Mo: 12ppg, 5 rpg, tough defense. That's all I need.

Both would be career highs, but not unrealistically so.

BNM

 

[KingSpeed]

This is the year we find out Mo's ceiling. If he doesn't show improvement this season, I think all hope is lost. I'm not looking for a huge breakout for Mo -- he's pretty far down the pecking order -- but he does need to make a leap, even if just a moderate one, instead of the tiny baby steps he's been taking for the last 5 years. My eternal fan optimism hasn't given up on him though. He hasn't convinced me he can't, so I prefer to believe he can

He's only 24. He has time to grow after this year.

 

[Boob-No-More]

He's only 24. He has time to grow after this year.

Yes, but this will be his 6th NBA season and his growth to date has been in frustratingly small increments. I don't think anyone here has said Mo won't continue to improve. However, given his infinitesimally small improvement over the last five years, some of us will be legitimately surprised to see a huge improvement by Mo this year.

I'd love to be wrong, but I'm not counting on it.

Question for you: if Melo agrees to waive his no trade clause to come to POR, would you trade Mo + Meyers + filler for Carmelo Anthony?

BNM

 

[dviss1]

Yes, but this will be his 6th NBA season and his growth to date has been in frustratingly small increments. I don't think anyone here has said Mo won't continue to improve. However, given his infinitesimally small improvement over the last five years, some of us will be legitimately surprised to see a huge improvement by Mo this year.

I'd love to be wrong, but I'm not counting on it.

Question for you: if Melo agrees to waive his no trade clause to come to POR, would you trade Mo + Meyers + filler for Carmelo Anthony?

BNM

I would and I'm a Harkless fan.

 

[BBert]

He's not Rolo. He's always had a excellent (DEN) to near elite (POR) TRB%. He will box out his man and aggressively chase down rebounds.

BNM

That's kind of what I thought. Put a hard body on someone; go to the ball.

In his games with Portland, Nurk always seemed to be in attack mode: on offense as well as rebounding.

I like it

 

[BlazerCaravan]

I admire your consistency!

BNM

To be fair it's a both or neither deal; if Nurk clicks with Hark, both will benefit.