Top 8 in the West

[Pinwheel1]

Looking at the standings it appears that the top 8 playoff spots are already locked in. Right now Minnesota is playing well, but is 3 games back. An injury could happen at any time and changed things. But aside from injuries, who is the one team that you can see fading that would open the door for any of the bottom 7 ?

And does another team besides the Wolves have the players to move up? Still plenty of time before the trade deadline.

Phoenix is the least experienced group. They are playing well, but if I am a Wolves fan I would be focused on every Sun's game. I don't think they have any other options.

 

[lawai'a]

I think dallas maybe even more so than phoenix is on the cusp of potentially slipping. minny is only one ahead in the loss column of NO and 2 ahead of Memphis. NO evans has been on fire lately after Gordon going down and could elevate their teams play with more pt for tyreke. dallas is older and is only I injury away from slipping fast.(same could be said of anyone though including us)

 

[Mediocre Man]

Did I miss a memo, or do most teams have 50 some odd games still to play?

Seriously, what the fuck?

Last year at this time we were 15-14 and finished 33-49.

 

[Natebishop3]

Did I miss a memo, or do most teams have 50 some odd games still to play?

Seriously, what the fuck?

Last year at this time we were 15-14 and finished 33-49.

You don't think we were tanking at the end?

 

[Mediocre Man]

You don't think we were tanking at the end?

I hope we were, but that's not the point.

Saying the top 8 are locked in with 50 games left is pretty (whatever I can say here that won't get edited) IMO

 

[Pinwheel1]

Did I miss a memo, or do most teams have 50 some odd games still to play?

Seriously, what the fuck?

Last year at this time we were 15-14 and finished 33-49.

Last year the top 6 was locked up by this time. It was obvious that each would make the playoffs. (Without a devastating injury) But the last 2 spots were more questionable.

This year so far the top 8 are all playing pretty well. So even though Minnesota has stepped up their game, they could be left out. This year's west is much deeper. I am simply asking which team (if any) will have the wheels come off that will allow another team to get in.

I get that it is a long season, but a 3 game slide right now by the Wolves could put them back 6 games.....

 

[Pinwheel1]

I hope we were, but that's not the point.

Saying the top 8 are locked in with 50 games left is pretty (whatever I can say here that won't get edited) IMO

I bolded the word Appears specifically for that purpose. Obviously things are not locked in at this point. But things could get tough for a few teams in the next few weeks if they are not careful.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Last year the top 6 was locked up by this time. It was obvious that each would make the playoffs. (Without a devastating injury) But the last 2 spots were more questionable.

This year so far the top 8 are all playing pretty well. So even though Minnesota has stepped up their game, they could be left out. This year's west is much deeper. I am simply asking which team (if any) will have the wheels come off that will allow another team to get in.

I get that it is a long season, but a 3 game slide right now by the Wolves could put them back 6 games.....

And one by most of the top 8 could put them out of the playoffs

 

[Draco]

I think there are six teams that are locks to get in;

OKC, POR, SAS, LAC, HOU, GS

So its a fight for the other two playoff spots. I still have a hard time buying into Phoenix as a playoff team but as their 11 losses only trail three west teams they definetely are in the fight. I think Minny, Dallas, New Orleans could all make a good run and get in. Even Memphis if Marc Gasol can come back healthy could get hot and make it. The Kings, Jazz and Lakers have zero chance. I don't think the Nuggets have any realistic chance. So thats 5 teams competing for the last 2 spots.

If I had to pick two teams I would go with Minny and Dallas. The Love/Pek duo is so impressive at times. Dirk is right there with LaMarcus and others as the best big man in the game.

 

[Sinobas]

The 8th spot is up for grabs. NO, Memphis, Minny and Denver are all talented enough to take it. I think the Suns could also easily go on a losing streak as well.

 

[donkiez]

New Orleans is looking a lot better and Minnesota or Denver could easily get their shit together also. Dallas, Golden State and Phoenix could all easily slip, but for the most part I agree with the current lay out. I figured the irony of this season will be when we wrap up the #1 seed and then play Phoenix in the first round.

 

[Sinobas]

This whole seeding thing is basically meaningless in the West. Every team is tough. Would it really be easier to play Golden State in the 1st round than San Antonio? Or the Rockets over the Clippers?

 

[Natebishop3]

New Orleans is looking a lot better and Minnesota or Denver could easily get their shit together also. Dallas, Golden State and Phoenix could all easily slip, but for the most part I agree with the current lay out. I figured the irony of this season will be when we wrap up the #1 seed and then play Phoenix in the first round.

It's really only a matter of time before Kevin Martin, Kevin Love, or Rubio go down with an injury.

 

[Pinwheel1]

I think there are six teams that are locks to get in;

OKC, POR, SAS, LAC, HOU, GS

So its a fight for the other two playoff spots. I still have a hard time buying into Phoenix as a playoff team but as their 11 losses only trail three west teams they definetely are in the fight. I think Minny, Dallas, New Orleans could all make a good run and get in. Even Memphis if Marc Gasol can come back healthy could get hot and make it. The Kings, Jazz and Lakers have zero chance. I don't think the Nuggets have any realistic chance. So thats 5 teams competing for the last 2 spots.

If I had to pick two teams I would go with Minny and Dallas. The Love/Pek duo is so impressive at times. Dirk is right there with LaMarcus and others as the best big man in the game.

Dallas has surprised me, but they should not have since I have always respected Monte Ellis' game. He is one of those go-to players that will win you a lot of close games. They have enough vets that I don't they will slide. (Yes of course if he or Dirk went down it would change things)

So IMO Minnesota, Memphis, and NO fans need to be eyeing the Phoenix Sun's schedule. (or pray for bad things to occur to other star players)

 

[donkiez]

It's really only a matter of time before Kevin Martin, Kevin Love, or Rubio go down with an injury.

or Anthony Davis or anyone on the Blazers team.

 

[Natebishop3]

or Anthony Davis or anyone on the Blazers team.

Or anyone on the Blazers forum. I had no idea how many knee injuries have been had by the people on here.

 

[Eastoff]

I hope we were, but that's not the point.

Saying the top 8 are locked in with 50 games left is pretty (whatever I can say here that won't get edited) IMO

Naive. Presumptuous. Bold. Those are a few words I would use. ;]

 

[Mediocre Man]

Naive. Presumptuous. Bold. Those are a few words I would use. ;]

I can only assume your words were edited to the ones I am reading?

 

[tlongII]

I agree with MM actually. I would say that OKC, the Spurs, and ourselves are pretty much sure things but even that isn't guaranteed.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Naive. Presumptuous. Bold. Those are a few words I would use. ;]

I can agree with "Bold". The other two.... not so much since I think it was obvious that I did not say that things could not change. But rather how they appeared today.

 

[donkiez]

Or anyone on the Blazers forum. I had no idea how many knee injuries have been had by the people on here.

lol yep, Im doubled down on that. Im surprised by how many injuries, especially knees, in general there have been in the NBA this year. Is it more than usual or does it just seem that way? Seems winning it all is half skill and half luck, I'm just hoping we used all our bad luck from 2007-2012 for awhile. Law of averages will hopefully keep us healthy. Back on topic, there really is to much basketball and variables to lock anyone in at this point, but given what we know it makes for good discussion.

 

[RR7]

Or anyone on the Blazers forum. I had no idea how many knee injuries have been had by the people on here.

Maybe the curse has been moved from the team to the forum. Bunch of people on here "taking one for the team".

 

[Mediocre Man]

 

[Eastoff]

Maybe the curse has been moved from the team to the forum. Bunch of people on here "taking one for the team".

let's move away from that topic. it's kind of sad to imagine sacrifices to the NBA Gods.

 

[Draco]

Greg Oden was our sacrifice to the basketball knee gods. Should give us a decade of minimal major injuries.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Here's Hollinger's current playoff odds.

OK, don't shoot the messenger. I don't necessarily agree with the results that Hoillinger's formula/simulations produce, I'm just using it as a jumping off point for discussion.

Here's how the Western Conference playoff odds look, according to Hollinger:

OKC - 100.0
SAS - 99.6
POR - 99.3
LAC - 97.0
GSW - 93.8
PHO - 87.9
DAL - 73.5
MIN - 69.3

HOU - 61.2
NOP - 14.9
SAC - 1.2
MEM - 1.0
DEN - 1.0
LAL - 0.3
UTA - 0.0

I tend to agree with the very top and bottom. I think, barring catastrophic injury, OKC, SAS, POR, LAC and GSW are all a lock to make the playoffs at this point. I also agree that SAC, MEM, DEN, LAL and UTA really don't have a chance and would be better off going into full tank mode.

Of course, the middle is where it gets interesting. Hollinger's formula thinks Phoenix is a near lock, at 87.9%, but he predicts DAL, MIN and HOU will be fighting or the 7 and 8 seeds.

A couple things that surprise me: That he thinks 16-16 MIN will beat out 21-13 HOU for the 8th seed. I find this especially interesting because he predicts both teams will finish with 47 wins, but MIN will have one less loss due to the cancellation of the game against SAS in Mexico City. I thought the NBA had a policy that canceled games would be made up at the end of the year if they impact playoff seeding. Anyone know if that's the case? If so, where would the game be played? Since it likely won't affect the Spur's playoff seeding, will Pop rest his starters/vets and basically gift the game to the Timberwolves? If so, why even bother to play the game?

I'm also surprised he has the Pelicans odds so low. NOP has a lot of talent, but are a young team. They seem like they are on the verge of breaking out, and even though they've played us tough, they are still only 4-6 in the last 10 games and hovering around .500 in the West won't be good enough to make the playoffs. So, maybe I agree with him after all on this one. As a young team with talent, they will probably continue to play tough at home (currently 9-5) and struggle on the road (currently 5-11), but will most likely be on the outside looking in for the playoffs this year.

BNM

 

[noknobs]

I wouldn't count out Minny, NOP or even Denver. Minny and NOP have just 3 more losses than Houston, GS and Dallas. That's not exactly what I would call "locked in" given that today is January 2nd... That's about as premature and exaggerated as everything else on this board these days.

noknobs shakes his head in disdain.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Here's Hollinger's current playoff odds.


A couple things that surprise me: That he thinks 16-16 MIN will beat out 21-13 HOU for the 8th seed.

BNM

That is really surprising. I think Minnesota can make it, but I would be shocked if Houston didn't.

 

[Boob-No-More]

I wouldn't count out Minny, NOP or even Denver. Minny and NOP have just 3 more losses than Houston, GS and Dallas. That's not exactly what I would call "locked in" given that today is January 2nd... That's about as premature and exaggerated as everything else on this board these days.

noknobs shakes his head in disdain.

I think Denver's early season success was fool's gold. I predicted before the season they were lottery bound. They lost their coach (who won COY last year), their GM, Andre Iguodala, Kosta Koufos and Corey Brewer and Danilo Gallinari tore his ACL in April and was expected to miss at least half the season. Their new GM was basically giving players away for future draft picks. It was clear they intended to stock up on draft picks and tank this season away. I was as surprised as anyone by their early season success, but we are now seeing the real Nuggets team. They won't make the playoffs. They don't want to.

BNM

 

[illmatic99]

I think we're a lock for the playoffs, but still am cautious about guaranteeing HCA