Tough Decisions

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Part One Response:
I'm a bit of an outside-the-box thinker on this one.
First, the facts:
Salary cap/Luxury Tax threshold
2017-18 (A): $99.093M / $119.266M
2018-19 (E): $102M / $123M
Current salary cap hit: $122.198M, or $2.932M over. That doesn't take into account Baldwin and Wilcox, b/c 2-way contracts don't count against the cap, even if they "max them out" at ~$280k.

Free Agency Assumptions:
Ed Davis: slightly more than the MLE….3/$27M, starting at a little over $8M/yr
Noah Vonleh*: slightly less than the MLE…3/$21M, starting at a little under $7M/yr
Jusuf Nurkic*: 4/$72M, starting just over $16M/yr (I personally think this is way too low, but many others disagree)
Shabazz Napier*: Wild card, but also like Ed just above the MLE…3/$32M, starting at $10M/yr.
Pat Connaughton*: Mini-MLE-ish…3/$16M (starting just under $5M/yr)
*-restricted free agent (“matchable”)

Draft Pick Assumption
#20 pick, paying 20% above slot (of $1.803M) for a total 2018-19 starting salary of $2.164M.
We are sending our 2nd rounder to either SAC or DEN.

Trade Facts: You can send $5.1M in cash out in trade this year (including the draft) and 5.3M next year.

Overall thoughts:
I think it makes a lot of sense to try to get under the cap line this year, without sending out a 1st. Currently Noah+(Layman or Swanigan) would do it. As would obviously Ed, Chief, Meyers, Moe and ET.
Don't send out draft picks! As we are about to see, we're gonna need them.
Additionally, assuming you don't waste the pick on a bust, you generally get "surplus value" from a player while he's on a rookie deal, in addition to the RFA process that allows you (should you choose to) to have a player under your control for 9 years. Still really high surplus value.
We can only send out 5.1M a year in cash to sweeten the deals/buy picks. And lately, you can't even buy firsts. If you could, you couldn't get them around the late-teens/early 20's where we're going to pick. (As a reference point, GSW paid 2.4M for the #38 pick). So keeping the pick has much more than a 5.1M value.

So what do we do at the deadline and going in to free agency?

Option One: Pay everyone, get our draft pick, pay someone the MLE. Build up the assets.

Analysis: One thing we’re NOT doing, is keeping everyone, adding a pick, paying all of our RFAs and using the MLE. That would put us at 18 players (including the 2 2-way players) and you can only have 17 (if you have 2 2-ways). So you are stuck with the choice of who you either don’t sign (Pat?) or get rid of even while paying him (Jake?). The Team Salary with everyone re-signed (Layman as a roster casualty, but the cap number still remains) becomes: $167,408,664, $44,408,664 over the tax threshold, for a payment of $160.352M. Total payroll + tax would be $330M. Um, no. (And that’s the non-repeater tax!)

other options coming up. Talk amongst yourselves.

tumblr_mop99dGOrP1swr7rzo1_500.png
 
Not sure I can add much as others already pretty much covered it. But I will say that Dame going to Paul, essentially asking for help, may have solved some of the “tough decisions” on the team. The pressure has been put on and I think everyone in the organization knows it’s crunch time in terms of building a roster to compete during Dames prime.

What I mean by that is if there are players on the roster (Aminu, Ed, Bazz) that you would like to keep around but they could bring value in trades, you now might have to move them to at the very least show you are making an effort to improve the team and change the status quo.

I hope for big changes at the deadline but just don’t see how it can get done unless things just really heat up.
 
Option Two: Other end of the spectrum

Just as an exercise, I went through to see what the bare minimum we’re starting with. The following are guaran-Sheed:
Dame, CJ, ET, Mo, Meyers, Chief, Zach, Swanigan, Layman. Plus $5.09M in dead money to Varejao, Nicholson and Festus. $112.01M. Still well above the Cap (no Free Agency for us, unless by exceptions), but under the tax by about 9M. At at least 3 roster spots to fill.

But what happens if we:
-Renounce the cap holds of our FAs and RFAs:
Ed (12M cap hold), Noah (10.5M cap hold), Nurk (8.8M cap hold), Shabazz (7.08M cap hold), Connaughton (unsure which type of contract he signed, could be anywhere from 5M to max)
-Don't include our draft pick (assumed traded away)

Analysis: So this is what happens if no one is traded (except the 1st round pick) and all FAs are renounced. We’d still need to shed ET’s contract just to get below the Cap, and to get rid of Meyer and Mo to have any type of appreciable room. So let’s just say for giggles that we traded away our 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024 1st-rounders to get rid of the contracts of ET, Mo, and Meyers. We’d still have $74M on the books (enough to give a $28M starting salary to a FA). I don’t think that’s happening, and I’m not sure it’s the best use of space anyway.

And I don’t see PA being the type of owner to give up the talents of Nurk, Shabazz, Noah and Pat for nothing if he can match them. Ed controls his own destiny…he can go wherever he wants and we can only offer him higher raises (8% instead of 4.5%).

Bottom line: We may eventually get to the point where we can bring in an impact player, and it may even be a free agent. But to do it like this?


not-like-this.gif
 
Option 3a: Nurk Forever (Part 1)
As you may have seen so far, Nurk’s cap hold is actually much smaller than his projected salary would be. In a dream where we strip the team down of all exceptions and cap holds (except for Nurk), we have his cap hold of $8.8M going against our cap number. We then have about $19M in space for free agents, and then we sign Nurk to his 16- to 18-ishM deal after the fact. That gives us a cap number of about 113M, easily below the lux tax line.

Option 3b: Nurk Forever (Part 2--In non-Dreamworld, we don’t get to get rid of all the contracts.)
Keeping the Core Contracts (Dame, CJ, ET, Mo, Meyers, Chief, Zach, Caleb, Jake, #20 pick, 5.09M in dead money) and adding Nurk's $16M projected starting salary puts us at $130.2M, not only over the tax line by 7M or so but also above the apron (Larry Coon can tell you why that's a big deal right here). And that's before we go shopping for a backup PG or backup wing or backup PF/C (remember, Pat and Shabazz and Ed are gone). Technically we still have the MLE if we want it, but at that point the 5.5M MLE will cost PA (salary and tax implication) 16.2M or so, and do you want to spend 16M on someone who's on a 5M contract?

Analysis: While 3a is intriguing and a definite "All-In" moment (you're gambling on Dame/CJ/($19M FA)/(Aminu/Zach)/Nurk to be the core for at least 3 years, since we're not going to be able to rebuild through the draft or collect FAs) I don't see it happening. It would be exciting, and signal that NO and/or PA really likes this team or thinks we can get veterans to come hear on the vet min contracts, but these likely aren't going anywhere. We're likely going to have to give something valuable up.
 
jlprk said:
This thread could be titled, "How can we possibly keep McCollum?"

It's easy. Just get rid of Layman, Swanigan, Connaughton, Napier, Nurkic, Collins, Vonleh, Davis...Nope, still doesn't add to enough.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/POR.html

You guys sure make life complicated. You'll come around eventually.
Click to expand...
I am fine moving him in the right deal. But how are you trading CJ without bringing back a comparable salary (or salaries)? We get it, you think he is paid too much (and ya, he just might be) but trading him most likely just puts someone else paid a lot in his place.
 
KeepOnRollin said:
I am fine moving him in the right deal. But how are you trading CJ without bringing back a comparable salary (or salaries)? We get it, you think he is paid too much (and ya, he just might be) but trading him most likely just puts someone else paid a lot in his place.
Click to expand...

That's for you brains to figure out! Total payroll can be decreased over several trades. I don't expect to see it, but it is possible to do.
 
Gronk Brady said:
The problem with this is that you expect the team to get better without giving up anything of value. Blazers fans think to much with emotion and not with logic. Trading Noah, Mo, and Shabazz will not change the outlook of this team. You can’t get emotional and have 10 players You don’t want to trade. Also, there is something called buy low and sell high... Ed Davis’ value is at its high point right now... he can actually bring back value in a trade, then Vonleh can step in and probably get you the same production in similar role. Going back to my original point, everyone should be on table to make this team better except for Dame, Collins, and maybe Pat because he will not cost much to keep and probably doesn’t have value around the league.

Players to offer in trade: CJ, Ed, Nurk, Shabazz
Click to expand...
Expiring contracts are never at their "high point" unless they're bad contracts, which Davis certainly isn't. But what do you realistically think we can get for Davis?

Btw, talk about falling in love with players, you must love Vonleh if you think he can replicate Edl's production!!
 
Gronk Brady said:
The problem with this is that you expect the team to get better without giving up anything of value. Blazers fans think to much with emotion and not with logic. Trading Noah, Mo, and Shabazz will not change the outlook of this team. You can’t get emotional and have 10 players You don’t want to trade. Also, there is something called buy low and sell high... Ed Davis’ value is at its high point right now... he can actually bring back value in a trade, then Vonleh can step in and probably get you the same production in similar role. Going back to my original point, everyone should be on table to make this team better except for Dame, Collins, and maybe Pat because he will not cost much to keep and probably doesn’t have value around the league.

Players to offer in trade: CJ, Ed, Nurk, Shabazz
Click to expand...
It's not that I'm emotionaly attached to any of the players.

I'm looking at the long term cost/benefit for each player. Generally the trade deadline is a huge letdown. Not many opportunities available
 
Every time a thread like this pops up.
I'm reminded why I'm glad some of you have zero ability to decide the future of the franchise.
 
KingSpeed said:
Why move Aminu and Nurk? Aren't they the two most valuable defenders?
Click to expand...
Aminu - Might be time to sell high on him. Will he ever play better basketball in his career? I don't think so. Also, we have a plethora of young PFs. He'll need to be able to play the 3 long-term if he's to stay in Portland.

Nurk - Too inconsistent on the offensive end of the floor. I'd rather not be in another "Allen Crabbe" situation with Nurk this July.
 
HolyBackboard said:
Aminu - Might be time to sell high on him. Will he ever play better basketball in his career? I don't think so. Also, we have a plethora of young PFs. He'll need to be able to play the 3 long-term if he's to stay in Portland.

Nurk - Too inconsistent on the offensive end of the floor. I'd rather not be in another "Allen Crabbe" situation with Nurk this July.
Click to expand...

Nurk has shown quite a bit more than Crabbe ever did.
 
HolyBackboard said:
Aminu - Might be time to sell high on him. Will he ever play better basketball in his career? I don't think so. Also, we have a plethora of young PFs. He'll need to be able to play the 3 long-term if he's to stay in Portland.

Nurk - Too inconsistent on the offensive end of the floor. I'd rather not be in another "Allen Crabbe" situation with Nurk this July.
Click to expand...

Wrong player allusion, more a Nic Batum situation. Regularly you are grateful he is on your team, other times you wish he’d get his act together. Batum has a huge, untradeable contract, that is what I fear with Nurkic.

Gramps...
 
KingSpeed said:
Why move Aminu and Nurk? Aren't they the two most valuable defenders?
Click to expand...

Arguments can be made for all the forwards and centers because they're equally good (approximately). Any other GM would have long ago made consolidation trades, creating a class system of good and bad players. Instead, we have equally good ones, so decisions are random, not obvious. So this thread is all over the map, as we wait out his soap opera drama for years.

Lazy Olshey makes a move only when forced, by economics.
 
Unless we can get someone like Drummond, I don't think trading Nurkic makes sense right now. I don't think he's going to be a huge massive superstar a lot of people predict him to be since the Nurk Fever last year, his inconsistency will eventually prevent him from reaching that level, but he's still a decent center and I seriously doubt he's going to get a max deal in the Summer - I can see him maybe getting a $12M - $14M a year type of contract.

Aminu is too cheap to trade right now, I want to keep him around for the bench role. If you move him, you are not going to get another player like him for $7M a year to replace him.

I'd trade Davis because we won't keep him past this season and he might fetch us a good second rounder, and get us below luxury tax. I'd trade Vonleh as well, no future for him here, and maybe try to move Swanigan as well as he won't get minutes anyway. I'd also not completely exclude the possibility of trading Napier as with his recent form, and shortage of cheap point guards in the league, we might actually be able to get someone good in return for him. New York and Utah are my prime trade partners for dealing Shabazz.
 
Sarni said:
Unless we can get someone like Drummond, I don't think trading Nurkic makes sense right now. I don't think he's going to be a huge massive superstar a lot of people predict him to be since the Nurk Fever last year, his inconsistency will eventually prevent him from reaching that level, but he's still a decent center and I seriously doubt he's going to get a max deal in the Summer - I can see him maybe getting a $12M - $14M a year type of contract.

Aminu is too cheap to trade right now, I want to keep him around for the bench role. If you move him, you are not going to get another player like him for $7M a year to replace him.

I'd trade Davis because we won't keep him past this season and he might fetch us a good second rounder, and get us below luxury tax. I'd trade Vonleh as well, no future for him here, and maybe try to move Swanigan as well as he won't get minutes anyway. I'd also not completely exclude the possibility of trading Napier as with his recent form, and shortage of cheap point guards in the league, we might actually be able to get someone good in return for him. New York and Utah are my prime trade partners for dealing Shabazz.
Click to expand...

You make some good points here. Aminu for 7 million next year is a good deal. I also agree on Nurk only getting 12-14. No one is going to break the bank on him.

I like Noah and Davis, but I can see moving one.....but not both. I guess Noah is the odd man out. He should be able to shed us the 2.5 needed to get under the luxury tax limit.
 
BonesJones said:
Expiring contracts are never at their "high point" unless they're bad contracts, which Davis certainly isn't. But what do you realistically think we can get for Davis?

Btw, talk about falling in love with players, you must love Vonleh if you think he can replicate Edl's production!!
Click to expand...

Thats exactly it. What can we realistically get for our contracts? Davis? Shabazz? Aminu? Will the player(s) we get in return make us better?

I don't think Vonleh can replicate Ed Davis's production this year. Maybe in a year or two. Its going to take more development. Davis is a precious commodity.
 
I wonder if they would give us a discount if we offered to pay them in bitcoin?
 
BrianFromWA said:
Part One Response:
I'm a bit of an outside-the-box thinker on this one.
First, the facts:
Salary cap/Luxury Tax threshold
2017-18 (A): $99.093M / $119.266M
2018-19 (E): $102M / $123M
Current salary cap hit: $122.198M, or $2.932M over. That doesn't take into account Baldwin and Wilcox, b/c 2-way contracts don't count against the cap, even if they "max them out" at ~$280k.

Free Agency Assumptions:
Ed Davis: slightly more than the MLE….3/$27M, starting at a little over $8M/yr
Noah Vonleh*: slightly less than the MLE…3/$21M, starting at a little under $7M/yr
Jusuf Nurkic*: 4/$72M, starting just over $16M/yr (I personally think this is way too low, but many others disagree)
Shabazz Napier*: Wild card, but also like Ed just above the MLE…3/$32M, starting at $10M/yr.
Pat Connaughton*: Mini-MLE-ish…3/$16M (starting just under $5M/yr)
*-restricted free agent (“matchable”)

Draft Pick Assumption
#20 pick, paying 20% above slot (of $1.803M) for a total 2018-19 starting salary of $2.164M.
We are sending our 2nd rounder to either SAC or DEN.

Trade Facts: You can send $5.1M in cash out in trade this year (including the draft) and 5.3M next year.

Overall thoughts:
I think it makes a lot of sense to try to get under the cap line this year, without sending out a 1st. Currently Noah+(Layman or Swanigan) would do it. As would obviously Ed, Chief, Meyers, Moe and ET.
Don't send out draft picks! As we are about to see, we're gonna need them.
Additionally, assuming you don't waste the pick on a bust, you generally get "surplus value" from a player while he's on a rookie deal, in addition to the RFA process that allows you (should you choose to) to have a player under your control for 9 years. Still really high surplus value.
We can only send out 5.1M a year in cash to sweeten the deals/buy picks. And lately, you can't even buy firsts. If you could, you couldn't get them around the late-teens/early 20's where we're going to pick. (As a reference point, GSW paid 2.4M for the #38 pick). So keeping the pick has much more than a 5.1M value.

So what do we do at the deadline and going in to free agency?

Option One: Pay everyone, get our draft pick, pay someone the MLE. Build up the assets.

Analysis: One thing we’re NOT doing, is keeping everyone, adding a pick, paying all of our RFAs and using the MLE. That would put us at 18 players (including the 2 2-way players) and you can only have 17 (if you have 2 2-ways). So you are stuck with the choice of who you either don’t sign (Pat?) or get rid of even while paying him (Jake?). The Team Salary with everyone re-signed (Layman as a roster casualty, but the cap number still remains) becomes: $167,408,664, $44,408,664 over the tax threshold, for a payment of $160.352M. Total payroll + tax would be $330M. Um, no. (And that’s the non-repeater tax!)

other options coming up. Talk amongst yourselves.

tumblr_mop99dGOrP1swr7rzo1_500.png
Click to expand...

Excellent post, Brian. I am looking forward to your breakdown of the other options!
 
UncleCliffy'sDaddy said:
Keep Aminu and move Ed???? Dog, lay off the weed so early in the day. It makes you utterly crazy......
Click to expand...

It's like there's a such thing as "dog nip".

If Ed Davis gets a Butters type deal, YOU PAY THAT MAN....

10 MIL per for Davis is a STEAL.

Figure it out.
 
Chris Craig said:
Thats exactly it. What can we realistically get for our contracts? Davis? Shabazz? Aminu? Will the player(s) we get in return make us better?

I don't think Vonleh can replicate Ed Davis's production this year. Maybe in a year or two. Its going to take more development. Davis is a precious commodity.
Click to expand...

Well if you go off of what was reported last year pre-deadline on Aminu's value.
Cavs/Boston/Geko's were calling on Aminu.
I'd say that says a lot in a year where Aminu couldn't stay healthy.
Now he's healthy & shooting a career high from deep. Only imagine his value has gone up right? At the very least it's equal to last year.

I think Napier is in a perfect scenario for him, but I don't think he's any better than guys like Farrel, Burks, etc.
The Cavs are down on him, but is Davis really that much better than Thompson? I can't say a for sure yes, or no.

Imo if Portland trades Aminu the best they'll get is a 1st rounder outside the lotto.
I don't think Davis is all that tradeable because hustle players aren't valued.(See Faried, Amundson, Warrick, etc)
Napier is going to at best net a 2nd round pick.
 
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