Trade Deadline Predictions

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POR goal (or even mandate) is they have to send like 3.5 MIL more out in contracts then they get back. There are quite a few teams that don't want to add 3.5 MIL to their payroll as it will push them into Luxury Tax area themselves. This limits our trade options to about max of 17 teams vs the normal 29 you have the option of contacting. And then you have to figure some of those 17 may be willing to deal but not for the specific players we want to send out. The teams that decide to be buyers are going to have many teams eager to deal. Basically they get their pick of a premo deal. You have to really try hard to make it worth their while to pick you over another team looking to cut space.

I don't believe it's 3.5m to get under the tax. I think it's actually a little less than 3. The teams that are close to the line aren't teams that have assets we'd realistically be interested in anyway.
 
I don't believe it's 3.5m to get under the tax. I think it's actually a little less than 3. The teams that are close to the line aren't teams that have assets we'd realistically be interested in anyway.
It is over 3. But you are closer. According to @42N8Bounce it is $3,002,579 we have to cut. I believe it is going to be harder this year because I think there are going to be many more teams who are trying to be "sellers" than "buyers". I would love to be wrong on that though.
 
It is over 3. But you are closer. According to @42N8Bounce it is $3,002,579 we have to cut. I believe it is going to be harder this year because I think there are going to be many more teams who are trying to be "sellers" than "buyers". I would love to be wrong on that though.

According to basketballinsiders it's $2,931,921. According to the ESPN Trade Machine it's $2,849,921. Not sure why there's a $82K difference.

BNM
 
It is over 3. But you are closer. According to @42N8Bounce it is $3,002,579 we have to cut. I believe it is going to be harder this year because I think there are going to be many more teams who are trying to be "sellers" than "buyers". I would love to be wrong on that though.

As the trade deadline nears, it's probably good to know where the Blazers are at with the CAP/TAX situation. Here are my estimates:

TAX Line: $119,266,000
CAP line: $99,093,000

Guaranteed Salaries:
Damian Lillard , $26,153,057
C.J. McCollum , $23,962,573
Evan Turner , $17,131,148
Maurice Harkless, $10,162,922
Meyers Leonard, $9,904,494
Al-Farouq Aminu, $7,319,035
Zach Collilns, $3,057,240
Caleb Swanigan, $1,465,920
Ed Davis, $6,352,531
Noah Vonleh, $3,505,233
Jusuf Nurkic, $2,947,305
Shabazz Napier , $2,361,360
Pat Connaughton , $1,471,382
Jake Layman, $1,312,611
Anderson Varejao (stretched), $1,984,005

Festus Ezeli (stretched), $333,333

Andrew Nichols (stretched) , $2,844,430


Total Guaranteed Salaries: $122,268,579

Total over the TAX line: $3,002, 579
This results in a tax bill of approximately $4,503,868.

The problem isn't necessarily the financial tax bill this year. I'm sure Paul Allen can afford that. The challenge is when we look ahead at the next 3 to 4 years. With Dame at a max contract, CJ at a near max contract, Turner, Harkless and Leonard all locked in for the next 2 years at over $10M/yr, plus a potentially large contract for Nurk, the repeater tax could come into play very quickly. The repeater tax kicks in when the team was a tax payer in at least three of the four previous seasons. Then, instead of a 1.5x multiplier for the tax, it becomes a 2.5x multiplier.
 
I'd do our first round pick for Hood. Either him or Oubre, same thing.
 
Why would Utah do that

They wouldn’t. Napier and Hood are probably of equal value but because of the need for SF in the league it would probably need to be Napier and a pick or taking back an unwanted contract of theirs while sending them a young player like Swanigan.
 
They wouldn’t. Napier and Hood are probably of equal value but because of the need for SF in the league it would probably need to be Napier and a pick or taking back an unwanted contract of theirs while sending them a young player like Swanigan.

What if we took on Rubio as well?

I think they’d be interested in Vonleh. Would Vonleh and Napier be enough for Hood?
 
What if we took on Rubio as well?

I think they’d be interested in Vonleh. Would Vonleh and Napier be enough for Hood?

My proposed trade for about a week and a half now has been Napier, Harkless, Swanigan and a 2nd rd pick for Hood and Rubio. But they could have their pick of Vonleh or Swanigan. Salaries are almost identical.
 
UTA is also looking to move Favors, and supposedly CLE wants him. There are rumors of a potential 3-team trade between CLE, UTA and CHI. Anyway we can get in on this?

Something like:

Favors to CLE

Mirotic and Napier to UTA

Crowder and Hood to POR

Osman, Zizic, Vonleh and Connaughton to CHI

Throw in/swap picks as necessary.

CLE gets the 2-way big man they desire. UTA dumps two players they are looking to move, gets Mirotic, who they want and Napier, who they need. We upgrade our SF position immensely, without giving up any core pieces and CHI gets a lot of young, cheap players.

BNM
 
UTA is also looking to move Favors, and supposedly CLE wants him. There are rumors of a potential 3-team trade between CLE, UTA and CHI. Anyway we can get in on this?

Something like:

Favors to CLE

Mirotic and Napier to UTA

Crowder and Hood to POR

Osman, Zizic, Vonleh and Connaughton to CHI

Throw in/swap picks as necessary.

CLE gets the 2-way big man they desire. UTA dumps two players they are looking to move, gets Mirotic, who they want and Napier, who they need. We upgrade our SF position immensely, without giving up any core pieces and CHI gets a lot of young, cheap players.

BNM

Cleveland could get more than Favors for Crowder and Chicago could get more than some no names for Mirotic, especially if they’re dead set on getting a first rd pick for him.
 
Cleveland could get more than Favors for Crowder and Chicago could get more than some no names for Mirotic, especially if they’re dead set on getting a first rd pick for him.

Which is why I said include picks as necessary.

And no, CLE can't get more than Favors for Crowder. Favors is the better player and a much better fit for them than Crowder.

BNM
 


Davis would be a great fit with Cleveland and next to Love.
 
Very quirky idea here:

If we gave CLE Napier and Davis, and took on big contracts that helped them get under the tax, then could we manage a swap for the BKN pick? What would the swap have to be protected... Top 5?

For example:
CLE Gets: Napier, Davis
POR Gets: Crowder, Zizic, Calderon, Rose + (TPE) Shumpert, Osman

CLE saves $15.5M in salary (and apx. $50M total including the tax bill) and gets better and more balanced. This is a better lineup:

Thomas / Napier
Smith / Wade / Korver
LeBron / Green
Love / Frye
Thompson / Davis

That has to be worth a lot in return value. We would be over the tax but we would have our starting SF for the next 3 years in Crowder at a cheap contract (3 years, $18M), and could trade away Harkless/Leonard/Aminu to get closer (or if possible), under the tax line.
 
Which is why I said include picks as necessary.

And no, CLE can't get more than Favors for Crowder. Favors is the better player and a much better fit for them than Crowder.

BNM
I don't think Utah would trade Favors for Crowder, they already have a logjam of wings. Davis for Crowder is ideal.
 
Which is why I said include picks as necessary.

And no, CLE can't get more than Favors for Crowder. Favors is the better player and a much better fit for them than Crowder.

BNM

I just think the market for a 3 is as high as it’s been in a really long time. If you add a first coming in for Chicago they would probably bite but actually might not want all those extra players unless it’s to match salaries.
 
My realistic prediction:
CLE Gets:
Napier, Davis, Layman
POR Gets: Crowder, 2018 CLE 1st

DAL Gets: Meyers Leonard, Maurice Harkless, Noah Vonleh
POR Gets: Devin Harris, Josh McRoberts, Salah Mejri

That's it.

Sign Baldwin and Wilcox to NBA contracts.
14 player roster.
Lillard / Harris / Baldwin
McCollum / Connaughton / Wilcox
Crowder / Turner /
Aminu / Collins / Swanigan
Nurkic / Mejri / McRoberts

Shed apx. $14M in payroll this year.
Shed apx. $14M in payroll next year (not counting the money we would give Vonleh and Napier)
We add a cheap SF for the future
We add a late 1st from CLE

We'd actually be right at the cap space line next year. Shed Turner's contract with a 1st attached and we'd have almost $20M in cap space.
 
I just think the market for a 3 is as high as it’s been in a really long time. If you add a first coming in for Chicago they would probably bite but actually might not want all those extra players unless it’s to match salaries.

It's to match salaries and a couple of them are expiring. They would hold their Bird rights. So, they could audition them for half a season and then either resign them or let them walk.

BNM
 
My realistic prediction:
CLE Gets:
Napier, Davis, Layman
POR Gets: Crowder, 2018 CLE 1st

DAL Gets: Meyers Leonard, Maurice Harkless, Noah Vonleh
POR Gets: Devin Harris, Josh McRoberts, Salah Mejri

That's it.

Sign Baldwin and Wilcox to NBA contracts.
14 player roster.
Lillard / Harris / Baldwin
McCollum / Connaughton / Wilcox
Crowder / Turner /
Aminu / Collins / Swanigan
Nurkic / Mejri / McRoberts

Shed apx. $14M in payroll this year.
Shed apx. $14M in payroll next year (not counting the money we would give Vonleh and Napier)
We add a cheap SF for the future
We add a late 1st from CLE

We'd actually be right at the cap space line next year. Shed Turner's contract with a 1st attached and we'd have almost $20M in cap space.
Why would Dallas do that?
 
Crowder sucks outside of the Brad Stevens system. Says wonders about how useless he is in CLE even with Lebron there.

Let ET be a lesson-- we don't need more mediocrity. If we're gonna go after wings, for me it's Hood/Oubre or bust.
 

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