Trade or FA first?

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RamblinRod

RamblinRod

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Long time reader, first time threader. Just wondering what everyone's take is on what the Blazers should do first, sign a free agent or make a trade. If you make the signing first, you're almost forced to make a trade to free up certain log jams... and what if the trade falls through? On the flip side, if you make a trade first you'll want to sign a FA to help fill what you gave up... and what if you can't get that player? What's the conventional wisdom here?
 
This is who we need!
[video=youtube;sfOAnR5ALEU]
 
And this guy is going to train Greg Oden how to have some post moves.

[video=youtube;RxbS8fOszFI]
 
Kevin Bacon errr Prichard also likes this FA from Africa

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To answer your question -- I am guessing FA first due to trade exceptions, etc.

Edit: But it could be that there is no big FA signed and we do a lopsided trade first and then we fill FA's with MLE's (if their available -- someone earlier said we had to renounce or they count against the cap. That is the first time I have heard that -- so I am not sure if that is true or not). I don't see any FA's out there that are must-haves. I am kind of hoping that we make a big splash with a trade, so that we clear out some room too for the players coming in. Ahh, sorry to waffle, but now I want to change my guess to Trade First!
 
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That's a tough question of which I am sure their is no right answer. It depends on many factors...

1) How much cap room you have (do you get more by trading first or less?)
2) Is there a FA that you REALLY want?...if so, go get him first.
3) Is there a trade that must be made so you know what your team will look like and then you will know what FA's you need to fill in the gaps?

I just hope (and trust) that KP has a plan.

Does anybody think that KP has a FA target that he is going to go sit on there doorstep at midnight of July 1st and wait to make him an offer?
 
Zybot said:
To answer your question -- I am guessing FA first due to trade exceptions, etc.

Edit: But it could be that there is no big FA signed and we do a lopsided trade first and then we fill FA's with MLE's (if their available -- someone earlier said we had to renounce or they count against the cap. That is the first time I have heard that -- so I am not sure if that is true or not). I don't see any FA's out there that are must-haves. I am kind of hoping that we make a big splash with a trade, so that we clear out some room too for the players coming in. Ahh, sorry to waffle, but now I want to change my guess to Trade First!
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I think what you heard was that trade exceptions have to be renounced or else they count against the cap. The MLE is only available to teams originally over the cap. Once we use up our space we can only offer minimum contracts. I could be wrong though.
 
SteelBlaze1 said:
Does anybody think that KP has a FA target that he is going to go sit on there doorstep at midnight of July 1st and wait to make him an offer?
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I was wondering that also... I just can't picture that there would be someone clearly a cut above the rest in his eyes. I think there are a lot of targets who he views being more or less on the same level. This whole offseason is such a huge mistery I can't wait to see how it unfolds.

If I had to bet though, I'd think they will court Sessions first, and if Milwaukee matches, they'd still have enough time left to pursue other options.... Or maybe not... problem is, if they decide to go with Sessions before July 8th, they can only sign him to an offer sheet on the 8th, and then 7 days from then it's already the 15th, by which time there's a good chance all the other targets have agreed to/signed contracts (Miller, Kidd, Hedo etc.)
 
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axs88 said:
I was wondering that also... I just can't picture that there would be someone clearly a cut above the rest in his eyes. I think there are a lot of targets who he views being more or less on the same level. This whole offseason is such a huge mistery I can't wait to see how it unfolds.

If I had to bet though, I'd think they will court Sessions first, and if Milwaukee matches, they'd still have enough time left to pursue other options.... Or maybe not... problem is, if they decide to go with Sessions before July 8th, they can only sign him to an offer sheet on the 8th, and then 7 days from then it's already the 15th, by which time there's a good chance all the other targets have agreed to/signed contracts (Miller, Kidd, Hedo etc.)
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That is my big worry. I hope that KP's plan unfolds quickly and it is not a wait and see what others do and then go get what's left.
 
Welcome Rod. I used to work with your son by the way. Anywho, I think we will hear about one first, but the other will happen.

IMO KP has a FA targeted and will be on his doorstep at 12:00:01 am July 1st. However, I think a trade will get done between the time we can actually sign that FA on July 8th
 
Interesting thought MM, I guess he could start negotiating on July1, then feel that will happen on July 8th and go ahead and make a trade.

So..start negotiating with FA on July 1st..
Trade Blake/Outlaw/Cash for someone
Sign FA on July 8th.

I like it...
 
SteelBlaze1 said:
Interesting thought MM, I guess he could start negotiating on July1, then feel that will happen on July 8th and go ahead and make a trade.

So..start negotiating with FA on July 1st..
Trade Blake/Outlaw/Cash for someone
Sign FA on July 8th.

I like it...
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Sounds good to me. One thing though.. if KP trades some pieces before signing someone, it may rule out the possibility of a S&T. Since we don't want to give anyone even remotely close a max contract in this class (and the only reason to do an S&T with UFAs, as I see it, is to give more years and higher increases), an S&T would only make sense with Sessions (can RFAs be sign-and-traded?), if the Bucks are reluctant to match but reluctant to lose him for nothing, with an S&T they'd get back some consolation prize (a pick and a smaller contract, like Blake).
 
I would say Portland would sign a free agent before they make a trade.

Primarily because I don't think Portland will actually make any trades at all, loop sided or otherwise.

As for a free agent signing, everyone better prepare themselves to be underwhelmed. There isn't a player attainable at what Portland has free under the cap that will make a huge difference to the team next year.

Our free agent signings are going to fill in the end of the bench.
 
I think KP/ Nate are after Kidd but will settle for Hinrich. Kidds name has been mentioned several times over the last 2 years as a player KP has tried to trade for. I think he's even had a couple of deals on the table but Kidd rejected being traded to Ptown because we didn't have a championship caliber team. Things have obviously changed and Nates relationship as a coach on the Olympic team may have helped change his mind. Kidd has lost a step but he's still an elite NBA PG and a huge upgrade over our current starter. He may only give us a 2-3 year window but IMO that works. Even if Bayless doesn't work out as our starting PG of the future we'll have the assests to trade for another PG if we need to.

Personally I would love to see us go after Sessions and then get a back up PF like Bass or Lee (if he accepted the role).
 
LittleAlex said:
As for a free agent signing, everyone better prepare themselves to be underwhelmed. There isn't a player attainable at what Portland has free under the cap that will make a huge difference to the team next year.
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Agreed. That why I think any "big splash" would have to come via trade.
 
RamblinRod said:
Agreed. That why I think any "big splash" would have to come via trade.
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a lopsided trade is the most likely scenario. There are a few decent possibilities on the FA market, but I'm sure that there is a very active market for Portland's available luxury tax relief. It's not next season's lux tax line that the owners are concerned about, it's 2010-11. They are facing a tough economy to sell season tickets in, and revenues set the tax line. Portland rotation player(s) + 7.5M in salary cap relief (or potentially 15M a year if a team is over the lux tax line) has got to be very intriguing to some teams.

I'll guess that it's a multiplayer deal.

STOMP
 
I used to love watching looney toons on ramblin rod when I was a kid. Is it still on kptv 12?
 
Simply put, I want an upgrade at PG. I don't give a possum's putang if it is by trade, free agency, or kidnapping some GM's kids! If we have enough assets left over to grab a vet backup at PF or an upgrade at SF....that's gravy.
 
STOMP said:
a lopsided trade is the most likely scenario. There are a few decent possibilities on the FA market, but I'm sure that there is a very active market for Portland's available luxury tax relief. It's not next season's lux tax line that the owners are concerned about, it's 2010-11. They are facing a tough economy to sell season tickets in, and revenues set the tax line. Portland rotation player(s) + 7.5M in salary cap relief (or potentially 15M a year if a team is over the lux tax line) has got to be very intriguing to some teams.

I'll guess that it's a multiplayer deal.

STOMP
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This would require that Portland trade some of their young talent.

KP will not do that.

Therefore the idea that Portland will make any trade at all seems pretty far fetched.
 
Mediocre Man said:
Welcome Rod. I used to work with your son by the way. Anywho, I think we will hear about one first, but the other will happen.

IMO KP has a FA targeted and will be on his doorstep at 12:00:01 am July 1st. However, I think a trade will get done between the time we can actually sign that FA on July 8th
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Can't happen until July 8th. From Larry Coon's CBA FAQ page:

90. What is the July Moratorium?
It is a period during the month of July in which teams may not sign most free agents or make trades. Free agents become free on July 1, but the salary cap is not set until the audit report is completed later in the month. Teams and players must wait for the salary cap to be set before trades and most free agent signings can commence. Teams may negotiate with free agents beginning July 1, but they have to wait until the moratorium ends before signing a contract. The dates for the July Moratorium are as follows: 2009-10 July 1, 2009 through July 7, 2009
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LittleAlex said:
This would require that Portland trade some of their young talent.
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whats your cutoff age where a guy is no longer considered young and why in the world do you think KP won't trade one of his 1st or 2nd year guys? Didn't he just trade Sergio? Though certainly KP has his players tiered as far as how much he values them as trading chips, I doubt anyone outside of Roy, LA and Greg are off limits to conversations.

I'm guessing a lopsided deal (salary wise) is the way they'll go because teams will be hotly pursuing financial relief with the poor economic forecasts... I'm sure some owners are paying attention to how their early season ticket plans are moving.

STOMP
 
STOMP said:
whats your cutoff age where a guy is no longer considered young and why in the world do you think KP won't trade one of his 1st or 2nd year guys? Didn't he just trade Sergio? Though certainly KP has his players tiered as far as how much he values them as trading chips, I doubt anyone outside of Roy, LA and Greg are off limits to conversations.

I'm guessing a lopsided deal (salary wise) is the way they'll go because teams will be hotly pursuing financial relief with the poor economic forecasts... I'm sure some owners are paying attention to how their early season ticket plans are moving.

STOMP
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I did say talent. Sergio was worth approximately dick on the trade market. I think Portland did about as well as they could.

Perhaps I should have said rotation players. Here is my list of the players KP will not trade for anyone this side of Wade:

Roy, LA, Oden, Joel, Blake, Outlaw, Rudy, Batum, and Bayless.

You will note these are all of the players who are actually worth trading. Since the best player not on the list (Sergio) just got traded I am guessing Portland is done making trades.

Martell would be valuable to some degree, but teams have to be very concerned that he will never play again.

I would be very happy to be wrong about this, but KP keeps saying things that I find disturbing about Blake and Outlaw.

He likes his team.

Travis has done good things for us.

Free agents would love to come and play with Roy, La, Oden, Joel and Blake.

KP's big draft plan was to draft an injured Euro who didn't work out for anyone.
 
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