Yet another reason to
NOT trade C.J. - continued improvement.
We all know he justifiably won MIP last season. The thing that was most impressive, to me, was that his increased production was not just a function of increased playing time. Most players, when thrust into a larger role against better competition see their efficiency decrease. Last year, C.J. was just the opposite. With his expanded role, his efficiency actually increased. That's pretty rare at this level.
This morning, I was perusing basketball-reference.com when I noticed something equally, perhaps even more impressive. As much as his efficiency improved last year, it's taken an even bigger jump this year. His raw per game numbers are up again, but with a very slight decrease in PT, the per game increase isn't as noticeable as last year. He's actually scoring 2.1 more PTS/G while playing slightly fewer minutes and attempting slightly fewer FGA/G.
His shooting percentages have improved across the board every year he's been in the league.
Here they are:
2013-14: FG% = .416, 3FG% = .375, 2FG% = .449, eFG% = .500, FT% = .676, TS% = .521
2014-15: FG% = .436, 3FG% = .396, 2FG% = .460, eFG% = .511, FT% = .699, TS% = .534
2015-16: FG% = .448, 3FG% = .417, 2FG% = .463, eFG% = .517, FT% = .827, TS% = .544
2016-17: FG% = .479, 3FG% = .430, 2FG% = .502, eFG% = .549, FT% = .901, TS% = .591
I don't think I've ever seen that before, a player who improved every one of his shooting percentages for four straight seasons, especially as his role and PT also increased. After a full season averaging over 20ppg, he isn't taking anyone by surprise. He's been scouted and game planned, yet he continues to improve his efficiency. I think the fact that his shooting percentages have increased again this season is impressive, but I think it's even more impressive that the largest jumps in his eFG% and TS% have come the season AFTER winning MIP. Hell, if I had an MIP vote, it would go to C.J, again this year (assuming he keeps this up).
As a result, his PER has also taken a substantial jump every year:
2013-14: PER = 9.0
2014-15: PER = 13.1
2015-16: PER = 17.7
2016-17: PER = 20.5
What does this all mean? To me, it means we have not yet seen the best C.J. McCollum has to offer. He is 25-years old, about to enter the prime of his career and still improving at a very impressive rate.
To me, trading a player this young who has shown significant improvement four years in a row is extremely shortsighted. We still don't know how good this guy can be. If you are going to trade him you wait until his performance levels off, when you know what you actually have, not when he's still improving by leaps and bounds.
And before we start the Dame and C.J. can't coexist talk (for the billionth time), answer me this: How well did they coexists from Christmas 2015 through the end of the regular season last year when the team won at a 53-win pace, and how well did they coexist in the playoffs when the team advanced to the 2nd round and played the 73-win defending champions to a near standstill?
Before we go down that well worn path yet again, let's just see how well they coexist in Stotts' new defensive schemes. Better still, let's see how well they coexist when they are paired with at least one elite defensive front court player (paging Mr. Noel, Mr. Nerlens Noel, please pick up the white courtesy phone...).
And, to suggest we should trade the ever improving C.J. McCollum because we have the highly overpaid and under-producing Allen Crabbe waiting to assume his role is just flat out insanity. I'm not even going to bother to post the same numbers for Crabbe. Feel free to look them up. His "improvement" is nowhere near as impressive. In fact, it kind of sucks. He had one decent year, a contract year no less, where his PER jumped from 8.7 to 12.2 (from shitty to meh). He got paid and he has regressed to the sub-10 PER player he's always been. He's a one-dimensional stand still shooter who can't create his own shot or create for others. He got paid and regressed. C.J. also got paid, but continues to improve at an impressive rate.
Trade C.J. McCollum? I think not!
BNM