Politics Trump could lose popular vote by 5 million but still win 2020 election, Michael Moore warns.

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SlyPokerDog

SlyPokerDog

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Michael Moore has warned Donald Trump could lose the popular vote by 5 million but still win the 2020 election, given the Electoral College system.

In 2016, Mr Trump won almost 3 million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton but comfortably won the election by winning key states.

Mr Moore, who correctly predicted Mr Trump’s first election victory, has warned that the same thing could happen in 2020, even with a bigger victory for the Democratic candidate in the popular vote.



“I believe whoever the Democrat is next year is going to win by 4 to 5 million popular votes,” the filmmaker told Democracy Now.

“The problem is… if the vote were today, I believe, he [Mr Trump] would win the electoral states that he would need because living out there, I will tell you, his level of support has not gone down one inch.”

“In fact, I’d say it’s even more rabid than it was before, because they’re afraid now,” he added.

“They’re afraid he could lose, because they watched his behaviour. So they are voracious in their appetite for Donald Trump.”

Mr Moore also warned Democrats against picking a so-called moderate candidate and giving voters “another Hillary Clinton” if they want to win in 2020.

“If we go that route, it’s guaranteed we will lose the Electoral College. We will win when we put somebody on that ballot that excites the base – women, people of colour, young people,” he said.

Joe Biden, the former vice president, is currently leading the Democratic nomination contest, with senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren in second and third place.

Recent polls have shown all three candidates could beat Mr Trump in the popular vote but it is unclear how they would do in the Electoral College system.

Mr Moore has backed Mr Sanders for the Democratic nomination, but added he would also be satisfied with Ms Warren as the candidate.

Hours after the interview, Mr Trump appeared to endorse the filmmaker’s prediction by tweeting: “He made same prediction in 2016. Nobody ever said Michael was stupid!”

Mr Moore was one of the early mainstream commentators who called Mr Trump’s victory in 2016.

He also predicted that the Democrats would win in 2008 but wrongly predicted Mitt Romney, the Republican candidate, would win in 2012.

In US presidential elections, each state gets a number of electors based on its total number of representatives in Congress.

For example, Wyoming gets 3 electoral votes, while California gets 55 votes.

The system means it can be more useful for a candidate to win many states by small margins rather than win big majorities in large states.

In 2016, Ms Clinton won some populous states, such as New York and California, by more than 20 percentage points but lost swing states, such as Michigan and Pennsylvania, by less than one percentage point.

This allowed Mr Trump to win the election without winning the popular vote.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-electoral-college-popular-vote-a9263106.html
 
That's certainly a possibility
 
I think he's wrong. The "Base" will be excited to go vote for whoever they put out there. The votes they need in the electoral college will come if they put someone out there who can garner support from people outside of the base. If it's just an extreme liberal they basically have 0 shot at winning the electoral college. He even says oh they could win the popular vote by 5M, most of that is from the Left, in places like California who will vote blue no matter what. If you want purple states it's gonna have to be more than just here's our far-left candidate.
 
I think he's under selling the potential youth vote. They didn't vote for shit in 16, and I kind of think they might be more motivated this time around.

The thing is, IF they increase the popular vote by 2-3 million, exactly where do they suspect those votes are coming from?

It's doubtful that there will be MORE people voting for a democrat in states she won. the increase in #'s (hypothetical as it may be) would probably be in states where he won, including states he *barely* won.

But it's the democrats, they'll fuck things up sooner rather than later.
 
julius said:
I think he's under selling the potential youth vote. They didn't vote for shit in 16, and I kind of think they might be more motivated this time around.

The thing is, IF they increase the popular vote by 2-3 million, exactly where do they suspect those votes are coming from?

It's doubtful that there will be MORE people voting for a democrat in states she won. the increase in #'s (hypothetical as it may be) would probably be in states where he won, including states he *barely* won.

But it's the democrats, they'll fuck things up sooner rather than later.
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Look at the candidates their running... I think they already have...
 
Trump will win if Millennials & now GenZ are told to shut up and fall in line again.
 
TorturedBlazerFan said:
Look at the candidates their running... I think they already have...
Click to expand...

Look at the candidate the republicans are trotting out. 2016 he was an unknown non politician. Now he is known as a corrupt politician. It will not be very easy for trump.
 
CupWizier said:
Look at the candidate the republicans are trotting out. 2016 he was an unknown non politician. Now he is known as a corrupt politician. It will not be very easy for trump.
Click to expand...
Never said he was a good one, but the more I watch the more I think he's gonna win again.
 
H.C. said:
Trump will win if Millennials & now GenZ are told to shut up and fall in line again.
Click to expand...
I'm a millennial, I don't think my generation has ever been told to shut up and fall in line... Were constantly bombarded with be an individual, do your own thing, be yourself, be weird. How is that shut up and fall in line?
Not looking to get into a big argument, just curious why you think our (I'm guessing you're a millennial) generation was told to shut up and fall in line?
 
TorturedBlazerFan said:
I'm a millennial, I don't think my generation has ever been told to shut up and fall in line... Were constantly bombarded with be an individual, do your own thing, be yourself, be weird. How is that shut up and fall in line?
Not looking to get into a big argument, just curious why you think our (I'm guessing you're a millennial) generation was told to shut up and fall in line?
Click to expand...

I believe he's talking about the DNC convention where they were pretty dismissive of the Bernie Sanders supporters.
 
TorturedBlazerFan said:
I'm a millennial, I don't think my generation has ever been told to shut up and fall in line... Were constantly bombarded with be an individual, do your own thing, be yourself, be weird. How is that shut up and fall in line?
Not looking to get into a big argument, just curious why you think our (I'm guessing you're a millennial) generation was told to shut up and fall in line?
Click to expand...

And I'm not going to argue it, because there is no need to argue facts.
The primary was handed to Clinton and she said herself that I'm too young to know of her record. Which is basically saying just vote for me. I don't tolerate people on this board talking down to me, why would I tolerate that from someone attempting to gain my vote?
No Clinton I knew of your record because your generation gave me the opportunity to learn and not be forced to listen to MSM/political spin. Clinton's generation and GenX gave me the opportunity to challenge the status quo.
It's people like you Clinton that don't understand what kind of opportunities you gave to future generations. You don't know what you've created, you don't know how to handle a generation not okay with the status quo.(As long as it doesn't effect them personally, because previous generations weren't okay with the status quo if it effected them. They'd riot)

During the Primary and the General. Constantly young people were told they're too young to know any better. Constantly told you don't know the difference between a democratic socialist and a socialist is. Then when you ask the older generations they don't know the difference while doubling down and by being unwilling to listen to you what the difference is.
The Democratic party handed the election to Trump, and they're about to hand the 2020 election to him as well with Biden. All because they're afraid.

I don't agree with everything Warren touts. I still think crossing the boarder illegally should be well illegal.
I don't agree with everything Sanders touts either.

But at the end of the day if Biden gets the nomination. Trump will be an 8 year president instead of a 4 year.


Edit - in 2016 Sanders would've annihilated Trump across the board. In 2020 it's far closer than I'm comfortable with. Still believe Sanders & Warren would win. But it's closer than I'd like.
 
H.C. said:
And I'm not going to argue it, because there is no need to argue facts.
The primary was handed to Clinton and she said herself that I'm too young to know of her record. Which is basically saying just vote for me. I don't tolerate people on this board talking down to me, why would I tolerate that from someone attempting to gain my vote?
No Clinton I knew of your record because your generation gave me the opportunity to learn and not be forced to listen to MSM/political spin. Clinton's generation and GenX gave me the opportunity to challenge the status quo.
It's people like you Clinton that don't understand what kind of opportunities you gave to future generations. You don't know what you've created, you don't know how to handle a generation not okay with the status quo.(As long as it doesn't effect them personally, because previous generations weren't okay with the status quo if it effected them. They'd riot)

During the Primary and the General. Constantly young people were told they're too young to know any better. Constantly told you don't know the difference between a democratic socialist and a socialist is. Then when you ask the older generations they don't know the difference while doubling down and by being unwilling to listen to you what the difference is.
The Democratic party handed the election to Trump, and they're about to hand the 2020 election to him as well with Biden. All because they're afraid.

I don't agree with everything Warren touts. I still think crossing the boarder illegally should be well illegal.
I don't agree with everything Sanders touts either.

But at the end of the day if Biden gets the nomination. Trump will be an 8 year president instead of a 4 year.
Click to expand...
Interesting. I have a much different opinion on all that, but to each there own. I won't argue with you, thanks for your reply.
 
SlyPokerDog said:
Michael Moore has warned Donald Trump could lose the popular vote by 5 million but still win the 2020 election, given the Electoral College system.

In 2016, Mr Trump won almost 3 million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton but comfortably won the election by winning key states.

Mr Moore, who correctly predicted Mr Trump’s first election victory, has warned that the same thing could happen in 2020, even with a bigger victory for the Democratic candidate in the popular vote.



“I believe whoever the Democrat is next year is going to win by 4 to 5 million popular votes,” the filmmaker told Democracy Now.

“The problem is… if the vote were today, I believe, he [Mr Trump] would win the electoral states that he would need because living out there, I will tell you, his level of support has not gone down one inch.”

“In fact, I’d say it’s even more rabid than it was before, because they’re afraid now,” he added.

“They’re afraid he could lose, because they watched his behaviour. So they are voracious in their appetite for Donald Trump.”

Mr Moore also warned Democrats against picking a so-called moderate candidate and giving voters “another Hillary Clinton” if they want to win in 2020.

“If we go that route, it’s guaranteed we will lose the Electoral College. We will win when we put somebody on that ballot that excites the base – women, people of colour, young people,” he said.

Joe Biden, the former vice president, is currently leading the Democratic nomination contest, with senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren in second and third place.

Recent polls have shown all three candidates could beat Mr Trump in the popular vote but it is unclear how they would do in the Electoral College system.

Mr Moore has backed Mr Sanders for the Democratic nomination, but added he would also be satisfied with Ms Warren as the candidate.

Hours after the interview, Mr Trump appeared to endorse the filmmaker’s prediction by tweeting: “He made same prediction in 2016. Nobody ever said Michael was stupid!”

Mr Moore was one of the early mainstream commentators who called Mr Trump’s victory in 2016.

He also predicted that the Democrats would win in 2008 but wrongly predicted Mitt Romney, the Republican candidate, would win in 2012.

In US presidential elections, each state gets a number of electors based on its total number of representatives in Congress.

For example, Wyoming gets 3 electoral votes, while California gets 55 votes.

The system means it can be more useful for a candidate to win many states by small margins rather than win big majorities in large states.

In 2016, Ms Clinton won some populous states, such as New York and California, by more than 20 percentage points but lost swing states, such as Michigan and Pennsylvania, by less than one percentage point.

This allowed Mr Trump to win the election without winning the popular vote.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-electoral-college-popular-vote-a9263106.html
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He'll lose by at least that much, probably more.
 
H.C. said:
And I'm not going to argue it, because there is no need to argue facts.
The primary was handed to Clinton and she said herself that I'm too young to know of her record. Which is basically saying just vote for me. I don't tolerate people on this board talking down to me, why would I tolerate that from someone attempting to gain my vote?
No Clinton I knew of your record because your generation gave me the opportunity to learn and not be forced to listen to MSM/political spin. Clinton's generation and GenX gave me the opportunity to challenge the status quo.
It's people like you Clinton that don't understand what kind of opportunities you gave to future generations. You don't know what you've created, you don't know how to handle a generation not okay with the status quo.(As long as it doesn't effect them personally, because previous generations weren't okay with the status quo if it effected them. They'd riot)

During the Primary and the General. Constantly young people were told they're too young to know any better. Constantly told you don't know the difference between a democratic socialist and a socialist is. Then when you ask the older generations they don't know the difference while doubling down and by being unwilling to listen to you what the difference is.
The Democratic party handed the election to Trump, and they're about to hand the 2020 election to him as well with Biden. All because they're afraid.

I don't agree with everything Warren touts. I still think crossing the boarder illegally should be well illegal.
I don't agree with everything Sanders touts either.

But at the end of the day if Biden gets the nomination. Trump will be an 8 year president instead of a 4 year.


Edit - in 2016 Sanders would've annihilated Trump across the board. In 2020 it's far closer than I'm comfortable with. Still believe Sanders & Warren would win. But it's closer than I'd like.
Click to expand...
Crossing the border is illegal.
Applying for assylum even after crossing illegally is legal. Shouldn't we follow the law?
 
yankeesince59 said:
...and also so irrelevant. Since when did a film maker become the mouth piece of America?
Click to expand...

I never suggested anyone was the mouthpiece of America, nobody did. Thats just something you made up. He is a prominent person who publicly displays his opinions and frequently appears on television though, so yeah, how dare anyone discuss his commentary.
But sorry for posting Michael Moore tweets in a thread about Michael Moore. So irrelevant. I’ll try to stay on topic in the future.
 
jonnyboy said:
I never suggested anyone was the mouthpiece of America, nobody did. Thats just something you made up. He is a prominent person who publicly displays his opinions and frequently appears on television though, so yeah, how dare anyone discuss his commentary.
But sorry for posting Michael Moore tweets in a thread about Michael Moore. So irrelevant. I’ll try to stay on topic in the future.
Click to expand...

You pointed to Moore twice, and in a very derogatory way because he doesn't like Trump, not that I personally care one way or another about Moore's political views, or any other "celebrity"for that matter because I can think for myself...but yeah, staying on topic would help.
 
Anything’s possible but I think Trump is losing a small bit of support but losing a lot of his supporters enthusiasm. It’s enthusiasm that drives turnout. The Dems will be much more enthusiastic than last time, the independents are not as strongly in Trumps corner, republicans with morals aren’t enthusiastic for Trump anymore and true Conservatives despise Trump. Trump will lose substantially. If Hillary could beat him by 3 million votes in That depressed contest, Anyone left running for Pres on the Democratic side will quadruple her margin of victory. Unless there is a third party candidate. Then, all bets are off.
 
I hope Trump wins again
 
Lanny said:
Crossing the border is illegal.
Applying for assylum even after crossing illegally is legal. Shouldn't we follow the law?
Click to expand...

Now I was only pointing out that I don't agree with everything a certain candidate says.
But if you'd like to take it literal and start an argument more power to you.
I will not engage.
 
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