Trump Dominating polls, even with RINO plants sabotage him

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dviss1 said:
You just posted a Fox and Friends link like they ever tell the fucking truth... Smh
Click to expand...

So Fox = liars and CNN/HUFF = truth? Is that how it is in your world?
 
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lawai'a said:
looks like the donalds' popularity is slipping-
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...imes-cbs-news-poll/ar-BBmtmoS?ocid=spartandhp
Click to expand...
If you look closely at that poll there are a few things that stand out.

1.) the +/- is 7%, which means there are 220 interviewed. That means they can extract 220 votes from 1,000 interviewed and find the group that best suits their agenda.

2.) Even with Carson leading, only 5% are dead set on supporting him. The same poll has 11% for Trump. That's a 6 point swing.

3.) every other major poll that has less margin of error shows Trump dominating. Ironically, all are polling more than 350 people.
 
magnifier661 said:
View attachment 6445 View attachment 6446
If you look closely at that poll there are a few things that stand out.

1.) the +/- is 7%, which means there are 220 interviewed. That means they can extract 220 votes from 1,000 interviewed and find the group that best suits their agenda.

2.) Even with Carson leading, only 5% are dead set on supporting him. The same poll has 11% for Trump. That's a 6 point swing.

3.) every other major poll that has less margin of error shows Trump dominating. Ironically, all are polling more than 350 people.
Click to expand...
article clearly states that 575 republican primary voters were interviewed for their positions
 
Here's a break down on how margin of error is determined.

http://statistics.about.com/od/Inferential-Statistics/a/How-To-Calculate-The-Margin-Of-Error.htm

How to Calculate the Margin of Error
By Courtney Taylor, Statistics Expert

Many times political polls and other applications of statistics state their results with a margin of error. It is not uncommon to see that an opinion poll states that there is support for an issue or candidate at a certain percentage of respondents, plus and minus a certain percentage. It is this plus and minus term that is the margin of error. But how is the margin of error calculated? For a simple random sample of a sufficiently large population, the margin or error is really just a restatement of the size of the sample and the level of confidence being used.

Continue Reading Below

The Formula for the Margin of Error
In what follows we will utilize the formula for the margin of error. We will plan for the worst case possible, in which we have no idea what the true level of support is the issues in our poll. If we did have some idea about this number , possibly through previous polling data, we would end up with a smaller margin of error.

The formula we will use is: E = zα/2/(2√ n)

The Level of Confidence
The first piece of information we need to calculate the margin of error is to determine what level of confidence we desire.

This number can be any percentage less than 100%, but the most common levels of confidence are 90%, 95%, and 99%. Of these three the 95% level is used most frequently.

If we subtract the level of confidence from one, then we will obtain the value of alpha, written as α, needed for the formula.

The Critical Value
The next step in calculating the margin or error is to find the appropriate critical value. This is indicated by the term zα/2 in the above formula. Since we have assumed a simple random sample with a large population, we can use the standard normal distribution of z-scores.

See Also: Statistics and Political Polls

Continue Reading Below

Suppose that we are working with a 95% level of confidence. We want to look up the z-score z*for which the area between -z* and z* is 0.95. From the table we see that this critical value is 1.96.

We could have also found the critical value in the following way. If we think in terms of α/2, since α = 1 - 0.95 = 0.05, we see that α/2 = 0.025. We now search the table to find the z-score with an area of 0.025 to its right. We would end up with the same critical value of 1.96.

Other levels of confidence will give us different critical values. The greater the level of confidence, the higher the critical value will be. The critical value for a 90% level of confidence, with corresponding α value of 0.10, is 1.64. The critical value for a 99% level of confidence, with corresponding α value of 0.01, is 2.54.

Sample Size
The only other number that we need to use in the formula to calculate the margin of error is the sample size, denoted by n in the formula. We then take the square root of this number.

Due to the location of this number in the above formula, the larger the sample size that we use, the smaller the margin of error will be. Large samples are therefore preferable to smaller ones. However, since statistical sampling requires resources of time and money, there are constraints to how much we can increase the sample size. The presence of the square root in the formula means that quadrupling the sample size will only half the margin of error.

A Few Examples
To make sense of the formula, let’s look at a couple of examples.

  1. What is the margin of error for a simple random sample of 900 people at a 95% level of confidence?
  2. By use of the table we have a critical value of 1.96, and so the margin of error is 1.96/(2 √ 900 = 0.03267, or about 3.3%.

  3. What is the margin of error for a simple random sample of 1600 people at a 95% level of confidence?
  4. At the same level of confidence as the first example, increasing the sample size to 1600 gives us a margin of error of 0.0245, or about 2.5%.
 
magnifier661 said:
Here's a break down on how margin of error is determined.

http://statistics.about.com/od/Inferential-Statistics/a/How-To-Calculate-The-Margin-Of-Error.htm

How to Calculate the Margin of Error
By Courtney Taylor, Statistics Expert

Many times political polls and other applications of statistics state their results with a margin of error. It is not uncommon to see that an opinion poll states that there is support for an issue or candidate at a certain percentage of respondents, plus and minus a certain percentage. It is this plus and minus term that is the margin of error. But how is the margin of error calculated? For a simple random sample of a sufficiently large population, the margin or error is really just a restatement of the size of the sample and the level of confidence being used.

Continue Reading Below

The Formula for the Margin of Error
In what follows we will utilize the formula for the margin of error. We will plan for the worst case possible, in which we have no idea what the true level of support is the issues in our poll. If we did have some idea about this number , possibly through previous polling data, we would end up with a smaller margin of error.

The formula we will use is: E = zα/2/(2√ n)

The Level of Confidence
The first piece of information we need to calculate the margin of error is to determine what level of confidence we desire.

This number can be any percentage less than 100%, but the most common levels of confidence are 90%, 95%, and 99%. Of these three the 95% level is used most frequently.

If we subtract the level of confidence from one, then we will obtain the value of alpha, written as α, needed for the formula.

The Critical Value
The next step in calculating the margin or error is to find the appropriate critical value. This is indicated by the term zα/2 in the above formula. Since we have assumed a simple random sample with a large population, we can use the standard normal distribution of z-scores.

See Also: Statistics and Political Polls

Continue Reading Below

Suppose that we are working with a 95% level of confidence. We want to look up the z-score z*for which the area between -z* and z* is 0.95. From the table we see that this critical value is 1.96.

We could have also found the critical value in the following way. If we think in terms of α/2, since α = 1 - 0.95 = 0.05, we see that α/2 = 0.025. We now search the table to find the z-score with an area of 0.025 to its right. We would end up with the same critical value of 1.96.

Other levels of confidence will give us different critical values. The greater the level of confidence, the higher the critical value will be. The critical value for a 90% level of confidence, with corresponding α value of 0.10, is 1.64. The critical value for a 99% level of confidence, with corresponding α value of 0.01, is 2.54.

Sample Size
The only other number that we need to use in the formula to calculate the margin of error is the sample size, denoted by n in the formula. We then take the square root of this number.

Due to the location of this number in the above formula, the larger the sample size that we use, the smaller the margin of error will be. Large samples are therefore preferable to smaller ones. However, since statistical sampling requires resources of time and money, there are constraints to how much we can increase the sample size. The presence of the square root in the formula means that quadrupling the sample size will only half the margin of error.

A Few Examples
To make sense of the formula, let’s look at a couple of examples.

  1. What is the margin of error for a simple random sample of 900 people at a 95% level of confidence?
  2. By use of the table we have a critical value of 1.96, and so the margin of error is 1.96/(2 √ 900 = 0.03267, or about 3.3%.

  3. What is the margin of error for a simple random sample of 1600 people at a 95% level of confidence?
  4. At the same level of confidence as the first example, increasing the sample size to 1600 gives us a margin of error of 0.0245, or about 2.5%.
Click to expand...
In other words, the CBS pollster has been doing these polls multiple times, so they have substantial data to lower the margin of error. Ironically, it has a high MOE, which means they have completely changed their polling collection. So if they have a high number polled and still a high margin of error, they completely changed their format in which they collect that data, which brings the margin up. Very fishy...
 
magnifier661 said:
In other words, the CBS pollster has been doing these polls multiple times, so they have substantial data to lower the margin of error. Ironically, it has a high MOE, which means they have completely changed their polling collection. So if they have a high number polled and still a high margin of error, they completely changed their format in which they collect that data, which brings the margin up. Very fishy...
Click to expand...
you consider cbs biassed of course, because the data is contrary to your position?
i was just posting the latest poll numbers fellas i have no dog in this fight
 
lawai'a said:
you consider cbs biassed of course, because the data is contrary to your position?
i was just posting the latest poll numbers fellas i have no dog in this fight
Click to expand...
I just gave you an outline of how to calculate MOE, which was presented on a statistical education site, and you deflect this solely on the bias argument? Really???? LOL

The site clearly explains how MOE is determined:

1.) sample size

2.) previous data to solidify

3.) strength on how they obtained data

If they've polled 500+ people, you can eliminate sample size. That means two things

1.) they had weak answers

2.) they completely changed how they obtained answer.
 
And yes, CBS is absolutely bias, as well as, all the other networks for that matter. The establishment does not want Trump to win the primaries. He's being attacked by Fox, CNN, NBC and CBS. They aren't even hiding it.
 
magnifier661 said:
I can agree with this because it's averaging multiple polls at once.
Click to expand...

Averaging of polls seems mathematically in error.

Why is (22% + 24%)/2 accurate if the 22% poll has a MOE of 2% and the 24% a MOE of 4%?

Use this data with caution.
 
magnifier661 said:
And yes, CBS is absolutely bias, as well as, all the other networks for that matter. The establishment does not want Trump to win the primaries. He's being attacked by Fox, CNN, NBC and CBS. They aren't even hiding it.
Click to expand...

Who gives a shit about polls, especially at this early date? This is why we have things called "elections".

IMHO, Trump's not going to do well there, either, but at least you won't have to worry about "media bias".
 
magnifier661 said:
Yeah you got a point there.
Click to expand...

The poll questions aren't identical as well. And some are registered voters and some are likely voters.

I'd use the list of polls and look at outliers or trends.
 
Denny Crane said:
The poll questions aren't identical as well. And some are registered voters and some are likely voters.

I'd use the list of polls and look at outliers or trends.
Click to expand...
I've also seen demographics change as well like age, sex and race not being balanced. Some polls poled 100 with the age of 45-60, but only 20 at 18-25. The hispanic vote was like 15%, while the african american was 10. Things like that.
 
20151031_WOC007.png
 
magnifier661 said:
I just gave you an outline of how to calculate MOE, which was presented on a statistical education site, and you deflect this solely on the bias argument? Really???? LOL

The site clearly explains how MOE is determined:

1.) sample size

2.) previous data to solidify

3.) strength on how they obtained data

If they've polled 500+ people, you can eliminate sample size. That means two things

1.) they had weak answers

2.) they completely changed how they obtained answer.
Click to expand...

Mags, you are going to way too much work here. All you need to do is just say that the polls need to be 'unskewed'.

You can ask Denny for help on this.

barfo
 
barfo said:
Mags, you are going to way too much work here. All you need to do is just say that the polls need to be 'unskewed'.

You can ask Denny for help on this.

barfo
Click to expand...

Republican voters stayed home. The polls were skewed.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligence...s-founder-dean-chambers-on-polling-bias.html#

Your website, Unskewed Polls, claimed that it was “erasing the bias” in the major polls by adjusting results to show much more favorable outcomes for Mitt Romney. You turned out to be wrong on Election Day. Why did you miss by so much?
The whole notion of the polls being skewed and unskewing them was a belief that they were oversampling Democrats. The majority of the polls that were quote-unquote skewed were around 6 percent more Democrat than Republican. Many of us believed that the electorate was going to look more like 2010 rather than 2008. We just turned out to be wrong in that belief or assumption or prediction, whatever you want to call it.

Why did you assume that this election would be more like 2010 than 2008?
Polls showed, supposedly—and you have to even question this part of it—showed Republicans supposedly following the election more closely than Democrats, and were more enthused about the election than Democrats.

So you were extrapolating from polls that showed an enthusiasm gap?
Right. You know, what it really still comes down to is one can either look at a whole lot of information and try to make some calculation or set some probability of it, or one can just make an educated guess on whether you think the electorate is going to be, say, 35 percent each of Republicans and Democrats, or you think it’s going to be 39 percent Democrats, 36 percent Republicans.
 
Last edited:
Denny Crane said:
Republican voters stayed home. The polls were skewed.
Click to expand...

The pollsters got it right. Obama, and not Romney, won the election. Your wishful thinking was what was incorrect.

It's yet another case of 'well, I know better than the experts in the field'. Which rarely works out well, and didn't here.

barfo
 
Regardless of what poll you look at now, though, doesn't seem like Trump is dominating the polls. I guess we will all see and it will probably go up and down as time goes on.

@magnifier661 -- 2 questions for you.. If Trump wins, who is his running mate? Do you think any of the other candidates would pick Trump for VP?
 
barfo said:
The pollsters got it right. Obama, and not Romney, won the election. Your wishful thinking was what was incorrect.

It's yet another case of 'well, I know better than the experts in the field'. Which rarely works out well, and didn't here.

barfo
Click to expand...

The pollsters got the result right, for the most part.

The polls were still skewed.

Republican voters stayed home or the pollsters would have been wrong.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...ase_of_the_missing_white_voters_116106-2.html
 
Sedatedfork said:
Regardless of what poll you look at now, though, doesn't seem like Trump is dominating the polls. I guess we will all see and it will probably go up and down as time goes on.

@magnifier661 -- 2 questions for you.. If Trump wins, who is his running mate? Do you think any of the other candidates would pick Trump for VP?
Click to expand...

Trump would never agree to be someone's VP.

c5b8887b-7b93-4247-8f87-6a02751f83ea.gif
 
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