TRUMP TAX PLAN

[barfo]

It has never grown at that rate in a full decade, but 1984, it had a GDP growth of 6.8% and 20 million new jobs came from that growth. You just need a spike like that and a level off of 3.5-4% and you'll be fine.

As for the deficit.... Obama hasn't once worried about the deficit for the entire time in office. He's still spending 850 billion more than we take in. One year I believe it was a 1.3 trillion deficit in 2010 and 2011. Obama had a 1.1 tril deficit in 2010

You are proposing to double the deficit, roughly.

barfo

 

[magnifier661]

Out of the 597B in medicare costs, where should we be cutting 200b-400b?

I won't even start to say what can be cut without knowing what that percentage is really going to. Administration, subsidies, what? What I can say is the government wastes money on all spending. Every contractor loves government contracts because they can overcharge for their work because of mismanagement. I'm sure if buerocrats were held accountable for mismanagement, a lot of fat could be trimmed.

 

[magnifier661]

So if I have this right then you actually need to cut 2 trillion from current spending to balance the budget. One to get us back in the black and another one to get us to Trump tax and spending levels?

No. What I'm saying is everything is hypothetical at this point. Who knows just how much money is parked over seas that could be patronized back into this country. Who knows how many corporations will move back to America knowing the corporate tax is 15%. Who knows how many Americans claim more income knowing they will only be taxed 25%.

There are too many unknowns to say "This is what is going to happen". What I do know is if we have a GDP growth of 5-6%, it will give at least 20 more million jobs from historical figures

 

[barfo]

I won't even start to say what can be cut without knowing what that percentage is really going to. Administration, subsidies, what? What I can say is the government wastes money on all spending. Every contractor loves government contracts because they can overcharge for their work because of mismanagement. I'm sure if buerocrats were held accountable for mismanagement, a lot of fat could be trimmed.

Faith-based budget cutting.
"I don't know what's in the budget, but I believe that there are things that can be cut."
If neither you nor The Donald know what's in the budget, why should we believe that he can make cuts?

barfo

 

[magnifier661]

You are proposing to double the deficit, roughly.

barfo

There is nothing to propose until you can see it in action. We don't know how much stimulus will occur with lower taxes and infusion of 2.5+ trillion from overseas profits

 

[donkiez]

I won't even start to say what can be cut without knowing what that percentage is really going to. Administration, subsidies, what? What I can say is the government wastes money on all spending. Every contractor loves government contracts because they can overcharge for their work because of mismanagement. I'm sure if buerocrats were held accountable for mismanagement, a lot of fat could be trimmed.

I guess my point is that someone has to pay for this plan. You are either cutting services or raising taxes. Just cutting out government waste is a nice thought but how much do you really expect to get out of that, especially when contractors are spending millions on lobbyists?

 

[magnifier661]

Faith-based budget cutting.
"I don't know what's in the budget, but I believe that there are things that can be cut."
If neither you nor The Donald know what's in the budget, why should we believe that he can make cuts?

barfo

Wait, isn't everything forecast? Bernie's plan is total forecast as well, but I don't see you smashing it as a "faith based budget"

 

[donkiez]

Wait, isn't everything forecast? Bernie's plan is total forecast as well, but I don't see you smashing it as a "faith based budget"

we saved all the Bernie smashing for you.

 

[magnifier661]

I guess my point is that someone has to pay for this plan. You are either cutting services or raising taxes. Just cutting out government waste is a nice thought but how much do you really expect to get out of that, especially when contractors are spending millions on lobbyists?

I guess this is where we disagree. I see taxation as a penalty, not benefit.

I look at it like a bank loaning someone with a credit score of 800 a rate of 25% and loaning another individual with a credit score of 300 at 0%.

 

[magnifier661]

we saved all the Bernie smashing for you.

Well, I'm just making sure Barfo understands his argument doesn't really mean shit when he will support forecasts from Obama and now Bernie Sanders. You can't have it both ways

 

[donkiez]

I guess this is where we disagree. I see taxation as a penalty, not benefit.

I look at it like a bank loaning someone with a credit score of 800 a rate of 25% and loaning another individual with a credit score of 300 at 0%.

I look at it like this. If you are supplying someone a service and you remove that service to pay for something else, then it has cost the people who were receiving that service the benefits of that service. So in fact it did cost some people something. We could debate the merits of these services but thats a slightly different discussion.

 

[donkiez]

Well, I'm just making sure Barfo understands his argument doesn't really mean shit when he will support forecasts from Obama and now Bernie Sanders. You can't have it both ways

he was trying to make the same point to you, I think.

 

[magnifier661]

I look at it like this. If you are supplying someone a service and you remove that service to pay for something else, then it has cost the people who were receiving that service the benefits of that service. So in fact it did cost some people something. We could debate the merits of these services but thats a slightly different discussion.

BTW, sorry about responding off topic of the response question, using my credit score analogy. I was on the phone and reading something else.

that said... Yes, some group will be effected, but if they aren't pulling their load, they need to get out. The country must be run efficiently. The cuts may not be the final solution, but it's a fiscal start. Set the precedent on being a responsible government and more companies and voters will trust you more with their money.

We really don't know how much revenue we will get. And if you've read my first comments in the beginning of this thread, I too have major concerns with how much revenue this country will get.

Not quite sure why I am being attacked, by just discussing hypothetical numbers. I'm trying to figure it out as much as you are.

 

[magnifier661]

http://www.cbpp.org/research/policy-basics-where-do-federal-tax-revenues-come-from

I was using the 3.6T revenue and completely brain farted with the other revenue streams like gas, housing, payroll and tobacco,etc. What do you guys think the true number would be then?

 

[donkiez]

Mags just having fun, not attacking. Well maybe attacking a little bit but mostly for fun. I think a good place to start is corporate tax dodging/welfare. Everyone gets so hung up on income taxes, because it effects us personally, but we tend to forget about the biggest culprits.

 

[barfo]

There is nothing to propose until you can see it in action. We don't know how much stimulus will occur with lower taxes and infusion of 2.5+ trillion from overseas profits

That isn't really correct. You can make assumptions and see how they play out. That is in fact what we are discussing here - taxfoundation.org made some assumptions based on Trump's proposal, and the way it works out is an additional $10T deficit over 10 years. That's INCLUDING the (assumed) effects of stimulus, etc.

Now, you can disagree with them and claim there will be much higher stimulus effects. Or you can find $1T /year to cut.

barfo

 

[barfo]

Wait, isn't everything forecast? Bernie's plan is total forecast as well, but I don't see you smashing it as a "faith based budget"

Pretty sure Bernie actually has a vague idea of what's in the budget, since he's been in congress since the dawn of time. Trump, I suspect has very little knowledge.
But the bigger point is that Bernie isn't the one proposing that we can cut $1T. You and Trump are, so it is incumbent upon you guys to say what that $1T is.

barfo

 

[Denny Crane]

I look at it like this. If you are supplying someone a service and you remove that service to pay for something else, then it has cost the people who were receiving that service the benefits of that service. So in fact it did cost some people something. We could debate the merits of these services but thats a slightly different discussion.

SMH

People getting free stuff no longer getting free stuff isn't a cost to them.

 

[magnifier661]

Pretty sure Bernie actually has a vague idea of what's in the budget, since he's been in congress since the dawn of time. Trump, I suspect has very little knowledge.
But the bigger point is that Bernie isn't the one proposing that we can cut $1T. You and Trump are, so it is incumbent upon you guys to say what that $1T is.

barfo

Yep, you're right. He's been in congress for 16 years, where they racked up 14 trillion in debt. I'm sure he knows very well how to spend money you don't have.

 

[magnifier661]

That isn't really correct. You can make assumptions and see how they play out. That is in fact what we are discussing here - taxfoundation.org made some assumptions based on Trump's proposal, and the way it works out is an additional $10T deficit over 10 years. That's INCLUDING the (assumed) effects of stimulus, etc.

Now, you can disagree with them and claim there will be much higher stimulus effects. Or you can find $1T /year to cut.

barfo

Our analysis finds that the plan would reduce federal revenues by $11.98 trillion over the next decade. However, it also would improve incentives to work and invest, which could increase gross domestic product (GDP) by 11 percent over the long term. This increase in GDP would translate into 6.5 percent higher wages and 5.3 million new full-time equivalent jobs. After accounting for increased incomes due to these factors, the plan would only reduce tax revenues by $10.14 trillion.[2]

Last time this happened, we had more than 5.3 million jobs. As I've already said earlier. One year when we had a GDP growth of 6%, it created 20 million jobs. The analysis only gave a 5 million job increase from an 11% GDP growth

So this breakdown doesn't necessarily tell the entire story from historic events we've already experienced as a nation.

 

[Denny Crane]

Surely we could cut $400B from defense and education and energy. There is a $4T start.

And specific.

Looks like barfo is arguing we should tax the poor.

 

[barfo]

Yep, you're right. He's been in congress for 16 years, where they racked up 14 trillion in debt. I'm sure he knows very well how to spend money you don't have.

That doesn't tell me how Trump is going to cut $1T from a $3.5T budget.

barfo

 

[magnifier661]

That doesn't tell me how Trump is going to cut $1T from a $3.5T budget.

barfo

What it does tell you is the revenue can adjust greatly, which would lower the 1T more needed.

If you have 20 mil jobs as opposed to the 5 mil they conservatively used, the numbers change drastically.

And if you look at historical economics, a 6% GDP increase in 1 year can generate 20 mil jobs.

 

[barfo]

Last time this happened, we had more than 5.3 million jobs. As I've already said earlier. One year when we had a GDP growth of 6%, it created 20 million jobs. The analysis only gave a 5 million job increase from an 11% GDP growth

So this breakdown doesn't necessarily tell the entire story from historic events we've already experienced as a nation.

Yeah, the analysis could be flawed. And probably is. However, if you want to present a rosier scenario, you have to actually present one. Not just wave your hands and say things will be great.

Also, you are comparing apples and oranges. I think they were saying that GDP would grow an extra 11% (i.e. more than whatever they were assuming as the baseline growth) over the 10 year period. You are comparing that to a total growth of 6% in one year.

barfo

 

[Denny Crane]

Last time this happened, we had more than 5.3 million jobs. As I've already said earlier. One year when we had a GDP growth of 6%, it created 20 million jobs. The analysis only gave a 5 million job increase from an 11% GDP growth

So this breakdown doesn't necessarily tell the entire story from historic events we've already experienced as a nation.

GDP is $17.4T.

Tax 20% of that and you get $3.5T.

At 111% GDP, tax 18% and you get $3.5T.

At 20%, you get $3.9T. Times 10 years, it adds up to $4T that could have been TAKEN if the tax rates weren't lowered.

It's kind of a math parlor trick.

 

[barfo]

Surely we could cut $400B from defense and education and energy. There is a $4T start.

And specific.

Well, a tiny bit specific anyway. But is that what Trump intends to cut?

barfo

 

[Denny Crane]

Well, a tiny bit specific anyway. But is that what Trump intends to cut?

barfo

He's going to have Mexico pay for the wall. There's some savings to be had there, too.

$4T isn't "tiny" by anyone's definition but yours.

 

[magnifier661]

Yeah, the analysis could be flawed. And probably is. However, if you want to present a rosier scenario, you have to actually present one. Not just wave your hands and say things will be great.

Also, you are comparing apples and oranges. I think they were saying that GDP would grow an extra 11% (i.e. more than whatever they were assuming as the baseline growth) over the 10 year period. You are comparing that to a total growth of 6% in one year.

barfo

I have broken it down in what I've understood.

Bringing in 2.5 trillion taxed at 10% is an added 250 bil, but more importantly, that money is patriotized back into the country to add more high paying jobs.

Lower tax will most likely have more income claim. More claim will have more taxable income.

Less taxed middle class will create more disposable income to add more consumer goods bought and taxed in the U.S.

Less beurocrats needed with administration reform.

Only 46% of total fed revenue comes from income tax, so the discount isn't dropped right from the top.

Proposed increase of GDP could generate 20 mil more full time jobs can generate even more tax.

 

[barfo]

He's going to have Mexico pay for the wall. There's some savings to be had there, too.

$4T isn't "tiny" by anyone's definition but yours.

The tiny did not refer to the $ but rather the specificity.

I don't think there is savings in fantasizing that Mexico will spend money that we weren't going to spend anyway.

barfo

 

[Denny Crane]

I'm dubious of saving by cutting waste, fraud, and abuse.

You have to cut the head off the beast. Shut down entire departments. Like Education. Education is funded by property tax (etc.), and provided locally anyhow.