Politics Turning GA, NC, NV, and/or PA into victory (Biden vs Trump, 2020 election!)

[Lanny]

Do old rugs routinely get embarrassed?

Some do.
However old rugs get beaten routinely.

 

[riverman]

Do old rugs routinely get embarrassed?

If it totally ties together the room!

 

[Lanny]

If it totally ties together the room!
View attachment 32129

Loved that movie. One of my favorite actors as was his dad. Not fond of his brother, the movie star.

 

[Road Ratt]

 

[Road Ratt]

 

[MickZagger]

I honestly think Trump wishes he never got into politics.

This president of the United States jazz isn’t all it’s cracked up to be

 

[Lanny]

I honestly think Trump wishes he never got into politics.

This president of the United States jazz isn’t all it’s cracked up to be

I disagree. I think there's a buck in this if he plays his cards right.

 

[riverman]

I disagree. I think there's a buck in this if he plays his cards right.

nah....he's got dozens of litigation cases in New York to face when he's beaten....because he didn't know how to play his cards right...it's 3 years before the statute of limitations expires on his cases and without executive privilege he could be in court for the rest of his life..it's partly why he let the virus spread with denial in hopes it would disappear and he could dodge the bullet of facing prison time. Can you imagine Trump in prison? He wouldn't last a week

 

[Lanny]

nah....he's got dozens of litigation cases in New York to face when he's beaten....because he didn't know how to play his cards right...it's 3 years before the statute of limitations expires on his cases and without executive privilege he could be in court for the rest of his life..it's partly why he let the virus spread with denial in hopes it would disappear and he could dodge the bullet of facing prison time. Can you imagine Trump in prison? He wouldn't last a week

Trump's prison nickname - Luscious Cheeks.
Sadly, he'll pardon himself and a record number of others and none of them will ever see the inside of a federal pen. Hopefully, one or more states will have better luck but I think he'll somehow dodge jail time.

 

[wizenheimer]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/upshot/poll-2020-biden-battlegrounds.html

 

[andalusian]

Not to mention that Biden/Trump are neck and neck in Texas.

Think about that. Last time a Democrat won Texas was in 1976 (Jimmy Carter) and with Covid-19 ravaging Houston - I would not be surprised to see Texas turning blue...

 

[wizenheimer]

 

[wizenheimer]

and , a Fox news poll:

 

[julius]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/upshot/poll-2020-biden-battlegrounds.html

What's that compare to Clinton at this time 4 years ago (same states, etc)?

 

[andalusian]

What's that compare to Clinton at this time 4 years ago (same states, etc)?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...large-lead-over-trump-but-it-could-disappear/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-bidens-polling-lead-is-different-from-clintons-in-2016/

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/25/her...mp-compares-with-past-presidential-races.html

The biggest difference, imho - is that in 2016 we had no idea how either one of them would be as a president and what the outcome would be. In this election we know for sure what the Trump presidency looks like. Biggest unemployment since WW2, More deaths compared to WW1, Biggest divide and the feeling that America's place on the international stage is getting smaller and less significant by the minute.

I am not saying a Trump comeback is impossible, but the only several ways it happens imho are:

1. There is a magical eradication of Covid-19 and magical economy recovery (not likely)

2. We find something horrible about Biden that we have not known so far that paints him in an even worse light than Trump (Hard to imagine given what we know about Trump and Biden's many years in politics)

3. This country has a lot more idiots than we have seen even in 2016 (I still believe in most of the American people, so not likely).

 

[Minstrel]

What's that compare to Clinton at this time 4 years ago (same states, etc)?

I don't have those numbers, but an important point is that even when Clinton had her largest leads (around 8 points), she never broke 50% nationally or in the Midwest battleground states. That's important because it meant that there were enough undecideds that could cost her the election. Biden is over 50% support, which means Trump needs to not only win over the vast majority of the undecideds (which usually break against an incumbent), he also needs to peel some current Biden voters.

 

[Minstrel]

Some pretty numbers, courtesy of 538:

It's A. bad news for Trump that Arizona, North Carolina, Ohio, Georgia, Iowa (!) and Texas (!!) are battleground states and B. even worse news for him that he's trailing in all of them except Texas, which is still almost tied.

If the election were today, Trump would assuredly lose in a landslide. Biden's lead is too massive for polling errors or Electoral College messiness to save him. This type of environment would also likely lead to the Democrats winning the Senate back (and padding their advantage in the House).

Republican hopes are now pinned entirely to the hope that the national environment changes by November, in Trump's favor. That's possible, but Trump isn't moderating or doing anything to suggest he's trying to win over anyone but his hardcore base.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

 

[Minstrel]

Lucky for him that he doesn't have to, eh? Trump's doing all the campaigning for Biden.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

Lucky for him that he doesn't have to, eh? Trump's doing all the campaigning for Biden.

Absolutely. Biden should take a page out of Hillary 2016 and assume that everyone is voting for him and he has no need to do any campaigning.

 

[MickZagger]

Mags? Oh Mags?

where art thou?

Don’t dodge the bet you came up with when the time comes

PS. Venmo works best

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

MAGS has been tasked with getting Parler up and running.

 

[Minstrel]

Absolutely. Biden should take a page out of Hillary 2016 and assume that everyone is voting for him and he has no need to do any campaigning.

Clinton lost because she had favorables nearly as bad as Trump. Biden wins as long as he doesn't make himself wildly unpopular. 2020 isn't like 2016--2016 had no incumbent, and those are what's known as choice elections. 2020 has an incumbent and those always end up as referendum elections--how do you feel about how the current President is doing? Trump just keeps digging a deeper and deeper hole for himself. His approval rating has been dropping consistently ever since the rally-around-the-flag effect from the pandemic ended months ago.

So yes, Biden actually probably does have a successful strategy in not campaigning. Hillary Clinton had a completely different type of election to compete in. Also, her mistake was not that she didn't campaign--she did lots of campaigning. Her mistake was trying to expand her electoral map to push states like Georgia and Texas towards the Democrats, instead of trying to lock up the Midwestern battleground states that traditionally went blue. She did push Georgia and Texas to be bluer, but not enough to win them, meanwhile she lost those battleground states by tiny margins. The perfect way to win more votes but lose the Electoral College. You should at least understand the history you're trying to use to be mocking!

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

Clinton lost because she had favorables nearly as bad as Trump. Biden wins as long as he doesn't make himself wildly unpopular. 2020 isn't like 2016--2016 had no incumbent, and those are what's known as choice elections. 2020 has an incumbent and those always end up as referendum elections--how do you feel about how the current President is doing? Trump just keeps digging a deeper and deeper hole for himself. His approval rating has been dropping consistently ever since the rally-around-the-flag effect from the pandemic ended months ago.

So yes, Biden actually probably does have a successful strategy in not campaigning. Hillary Clinton had a completely different type of election to compete in. Also, her mistake was not that she didn't campaign--she did lots of campaigning. Her mistake was trying to expand her electoral map to push states like Georgia and Texas towards the Democrats, instead of trying to lock up the Midwestern battleground states that traditionally went blue. She did push Georgia and Texas to be bluer, but not enough to win them, meanwhile she lost those battleground states by tiny margins. The perfect way to win more votes but lose the Electoral College. You should at least understand the history you're trying to use to be mocking!

I think Trump is probably going to lose. However, I'd love to see the Dems fuck this up again.

The meltdown would be glorious.

 

[Minstrel]

I think Trump is probably going to lose. However, I'd love to see the Dems fuck this up again.

The meltdown would be glorious.

It's possible Biden could fuck things up, but the easier and safer strategy is to occasionally release some generic platitudes and let Trump hang himself. Seems like that's what he's going with.

 

[julius]

It's possible Biden could fuck things up, but the easier and safer strategy is to occasionally release some generic platitudes and let Trump hang himself. Seems like that's what he's going with.

Did you see his answer to Hummanity the clown asking him what his goals are for a 2nd term?

And Trump supports have the audacity to say that Biden is losing it...Trumps answer was a meandering clusterfuck.

 

[Minstrel]

Did you see his answer to Hummanity the clown asking him what his goals are for a 2nd term?

And Trump supports have the audacity to say that Biden is losing it...Trumps answer was a meandering clusterfuck.

I didn't. But Trump spent close to 10 minutes describing how hard it is to walk down mild incline ramps at his Tulsa rally, so this isn't shocking to hear.

 

[andalusian]

I didn't. But Trump spent close to 10 minutes describing how hard it is to walk down mild incline ramps at his Tulsa rally, so this isn't shocking to hear.

Maybe he should dedicate his 2nd term to building walls around ramps and have China pay for it.

 

[julius]

I didn't. But Trump spent close to 10 minutes describing how hard it is to walk down mild incline ramps at his Tulsa rally, so this isn't shocking to hear.

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-hannity-second-term-quote-2020-6

"What's at stake in this election as you compare and contrast, and what are your top priority items for a second term?" Hannity asked.

From there, Trump went on a meandering series of tangents before the conversation moved on to his former national security adviser John Bolton and his tell-all book.

Trump was unable to outline any policies or priorities he would pursue in a second term, other than perhaps his anti-Bolton maxim of "You don't have to kill people."

—Sara Pearl (@skenigsberg) June 26, 2020
Trump began by talking about how he now has the benefit of experience after arriving at the White House as a political rookie.

"One of the things that will be really great — you know, the word 'experience' is still good," Trump said. "I always say talent is more important than experience. I've always said that.

"But the word 'experience' is a very important word," he added. "It's a very important meaning.

"I never did this before. I never slept over in Washington. I was in Washington I think 17 times — all of a sudden I'm president of the United States. You know the story. I'm riding down Pennsylvania Avenue with our first lady, and I say, 'This is great.'"

Trump went on to say that he didn't really know anybody in Washington politics as a Manhattan businessman.

"Now I know everybody," he said.

"And I have great people in the administration," Trump added. "You make some mistakes, like, you know, an idiot like Bolton — all he wanted to do is drop bombs on everybody. You don't have to drop bombs on everybody. You don't have to kill people."

Once Trump mentioned Bolton, Hannity carried the conversation toward the former national security adviser and his book.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/26/politics/donald-trump-second-term/index.html (I know, *snort* it's CNN....)

 

[CupWizier]

Absolutely. Biden should take a page out of Hillary 2016 and assume that everyone is voting for him and he has no need to do any campaigning.

If the election was today, do you vote trump or Biden? No explanation needed or wanted.