Politics Ukraine / Russia (1 Viewer)

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This is some heavy reading but I think it's important. I wish Trump had the patience and inclination to read it so he would know that it's important to be patient right now and not make huge concessions for peace. It's an analysis by Former Russian Deputy Minister of Energy Vladimir Milov of their economy. Three things I got from it:
1. They aren't recruiting nearly as many men every month as the amount of casualties suffered. and Putin can't mobilize further because of bad effect on economy and inflation.
2. They are running out of financial reserves and the interest rates on bond funding is very high. russia will not be able to finance it's budget deficits after 2025.
3. Most companies are suffering from not enough workers and too high interest rates; they are not profitable and cannot survive indefinitely.
https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/war-deficits-and-the-russian-economy
 
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Putin lost about 45 thousand soldiers in the month of Nov alone...he's sending ground troops into suicide missions ...this isn't sustainable.
 
Folks can finger point at global military safeguards and play the "we're not a war like people" card all they want but fact is we were all born into a violent, heavily armed world of conflicting ideologies and aggressive political factors. It's not changing in your lifetime. The peace marches of the 60s didn't take. People by nature aren't peaceful. I think it's ironic that someone claiming to be against the protection of sovereign nation status in face of invasion would choose to raise a family at ground zero for our own nuclear missile sites. If we don't protect NATO and the Taiwan's and Ukraine's of the world from dictatorial bullying, we'll end up needing to rebuild our own backyard and sift through the rubble. I'd like to see the world disarm but under the current social strains, people have bought more and more weapons. Another school shooting in Calif today. This never happened in my country a few decades ago. It makes me sick. Under Trump the military will get bigger and social services will drop off. That's what you right wing Joe Rogan groupies wanted and looks like you got it. Bernie Sanders social democracy makes sense over Trump's classist rule of capitalistic race baiters, Karens and misogynists. Thankfully I live in a place that supports my beliefs for the most part. Barack Obama is starting a new coalition in Chicago to protect democracy and seems to be organizing a movement to assure checks and balances remain in place for four more years under the orange fraudster. I will donate to his cause. I hope Ukraine survives and guts Putin's ability to ever invade a neighbor again.
 
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riverman said:
Folks can finger point at global military safeguards and play the "we're not a war like people" card all they want but fact is we were all born into a violent, heavily armed world of conflicting ideologies and aggressive political factors. It's not changing in your lifetime. The peace marches of the 60s didn't take. People by nature aren't peaceful. I think it's ironic that someone claiming to be against the protection of sovereign nation status in face of invasion would choose to raise a family at ground zero for our own nuclear missile sites. If we don't protect NATO and the Taiwan's and Ukraine's of the world from dictatorial bullying, we'll end up needing to rebuild our own backyard and sift through the rubble. I'd like to see the world disarm but under the current social strains, people have bought more and more weapons. Another school shooting in Calif today. This never happened in my country a few decades ago. It makes me sick. Under Trump the military will get bigger and social services will drop off. That's what you right wing Joe Rogan groupies wanted and looks like you got it. Bernie Sanders social democracy makes sense over Trump's classist rule of capitalistic race baiters, Karens and misogynists. Thankfully I live in a place that supports my beliefs for the most part. Barack Obama is starting a new coalition to protect democracy and seems to be organizing a movement to assure checks and balances remain in place for four more years under the orange fraudster. I will donate to his cause.
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What a stupid myopic post. You can't even string together coherent thoughts. Were you on something when you wrote this? I mean JFC, I'll take just once sentence, "I think it's ironic that someone claiming to be against the protection of sovereign nation status in face of invasion would choose to raise a family at ground zero for our own nuclear missile sites".

There are nuclear missile sites all over the fucking US. What is ironic about that? Are those who live in close proximity to nuclear weapons supposed to be in favor of engaging in a conflict with Russia? There's a logical reason why the reverse would be true, though it's a moot point anyway, because no one would survive.
 
UKRAINEFAN said:
This is some heavy reading but I think it's important. I wish Trump had the patience and inclination to read it so he would know that it's important to be patient right now and not make huge concessions for peace. It's an analysis by Former Russian Deputy Minister of Energy Vladimir Milov of their economy. Three things I got from it:
1. They aren't recruiting nearly as many men every month as the amount of casualties suffered. and Putin can't mobilize further because of bad effect on economy and inflation.
2. They are running out of financial reserves and the interest rates on bond funding is very high. russia will not be able to finance it's budget deficits after 2025.
3. Most companies are suffering from not enough workers and too high interest rates; they are not profitable and cannot survive indefinitely.
https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/war-deficits-and-the-russian-economy
Click to expand...
Russia pulled out of Afghanistan after 7 years, and one significant reason was crumbling economy, along with eventual weapons supplied by USA/Saudi that could take down their Mi 8's and 24 choppers.
 
crandc said:
Mike Johnson said no more aid for Ukraine after Republicans take over.
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Russia is way more financially constrained now than Ukraine after Biden gave them a parting chunk of change...NATO has been funding and arming Ukraine beyond what we've supplied them. .Russia may not out last Ukraine this time around as far as resources go. Their North Korean troops are poorly trained for combat as well. I think Ukraine can weather the storm regardless of our govt burning bridges overseas again.
 
beast blazer said:
What a stupid myopic post. You can't even string together coherent thoughts. Were you on something when you wrote this? I mean JFC, I'll take just once sentence, "I think it's ironic that someone claiming to be against the protection of sovereign nation status in face of invasion would choose to raise a family at ground zero for our own nuclear missile sites".

There are nuclear missile sites all over the fucking US. What is ironic about that? Are those who live in close proximity to nuclear weapons supposed to be in favor of engaging in a conflict with Russia? There's a logical reason why the reverse would be true, though it's a moot point anyway, because no one would survive.
Click to expand...
Wow, you really do add nothing
 
I think if Putin is convinced that Ukraine won't join NATO soon, and he can keep the Crimea and Donbas, he will negotiate a way out. Id like to call his bluff and bring them into NATO now, essentially it's happening now step by step.
 
SlyPokerDog said:
Russia Tests Cutting Off Access to Global Web, and VPNs Can't Get Around It
Russia reportedly blocks some areas of its country from the global web for a day as it continues to develop its own 'sovereign internet.'

https://www.pcmag.com/news/russia-tests-cutting-off-access-to-global-web-and-vpns-cant-get-around
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Russia's communications authority, Roskomnadzor, blocked residents in Dagestan, Chechnya, and Ingushetia, which have majority-Muslim populations, ISW says. The three regions are in southwest Russia near its borders with Georgia and Azerbaijan. People in those areas couldn't access Google, YouTube, Telegram, WhatsApp, or other foreign websites or apps—even if they used VPNs, according to a local Russian news site.

Russian digital rights NGO Roskomsvoboda told TechRadar that most VPNs didn't work during the shutdown, but some apparently did. It's unclear which ones or how many actually worked, though. Russia has been increasingly blocking VPNs more broadly, and Apple has helped the country's censorship efforts by taking down VPN apps on its Russian App Store. At least 197 VPNs are currently blocked in Russia, according to Russian news agency Interfax.

These latest partial internet blocks are because Russia is testing its own sovereign internet it can fully control. Russia already tested blocking or throttling sites like YouTube this year by slowing down speeds so much that sites are virtually unusable. Russia has reportedly poured $648 million into its national internet and tech that can power restrictions and has been seemingly working on this since at least 2019.
 
They are blocking Muslim areas so Syria might be proximate cause but yes all three.
 
On Christmas Morning, russia attacked Ukraine with 170 drones and missiles, mostly focusing on heating and electrical infrastructure, hoping to demoralize Ukrainian people. This will never happen.
Here is something from our old friend Igor Girkin, who you might remember commanded russian para-military forces in eastern Ukraine in 2014 and has been indicted for downing of that Malaysian airplane. He has been imprisoned for over a year now for speaking out against Putin but he still keeps talking and actually has quite a following in russia. He is one of the few russians who will admit that they are losing the war.
 
Ukraine has apparently used some new kind of electronic warfare suppression to ground all russian drones. This is a big surprise for the russians and also for me. Didn't think Ukraine had the resources for this. russians are paranoid that Ukraine may be breaking across the northern border in other areas and Ukraine may be feeding that paranoia but I doubt that it's happening. It's amazing that russia, with 60,000 troops in this area, wasn't able to stop the breakthrough.




 
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