Update on Oden's rehab

[e_blazer]

Greg didn't want to do the interview, which he made clear at the start, but he was polite and answered all of the questions. I imagine it gets real old knowing that you're going to get the same questions about rehab over an over, so I can understand him not being thrilled at doing the interview. Everything he said, though, seemed consistent with a guy who's committed to making a return and wanting to dominate his position. Loved his comment about it being a guards league now with the officiating. You could see that he'd really like to be able to use the old Shaq-type offensive moves where you just bull your way to the hoop.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

you mean he would rather be somewhere else, than having to Rehab over and over?? Imagine that!!

no like he would rather be (not) playing for a different team in a different city

 

[tlongII]

Injured and unable to play basketball?

We agree!

He's going to take the Q.O. and get out of PDX as fast as he can, IMO.

He'll take the Q.O., but he'll stay in PDX since we'll be the ones giving it to him.

 

[Blazer_Hippie]

I didn't like what I watched of the interview just because of his cranky attitude at the start. Some people on camera seem like they are cool and show that they respect people no matter their position...some people appear to have a bad attitude and treat "lower" positions poorly. Seems like Greg falls in the latter.

Is there going to be a sucker that tries to "stick it to us" with a larger than reasonable offer that they think we'll have to match? (ala Milsap)?

 

[Minstrel]

I didn't like what I watched of the interview just because of his cranky attitude at the start. Some people on camera seem like they are cool and show that they respect people no matter their position...some people appear to have a bad attitude and treat "lower" positions poorly. Seems like Greg falls in the latter.

Yes, being in a bad mood one day definitely means that Oden treats people of "lower status" badly. If you are ever in a bad mood when talking to a woman (or a man, if you are female), I'm sure it would be reasonable for someone to extrapolate that you are the type of person who treats the opposite sex badly.

It's interesting that when an athlete fails to perform to expectations, people look for as many non-sports reasons to vilify that athlete. I guess they'd feel silly just saying "I hate this guy because he didn't do what I hoped he'd do in a sport I follow." They feel they need better reasons.

 

[C_note]

Still makes me smile, even though its so disheartening...
[video=youtube;thTIYCXcx90]

 

[hasoos]

I really don't know what folks expect. If I was him, all these questions and rehab would probably be getting pretty old by now too.

 

[Blazer_Hippie]

Yes, being in a bad mood one day definitely means that Oden treats people of "lower status" badly. If you are ever in a bad mood when talking to a woman (or a man, if you are female), I'm sure it would be reasonable for someone to extrapolate that you are the type of person who treats the opposite sex badly.

It's interesting that when an athlete fails to perform to expectations, people look for as many non-sports reasons to vilify that athlete. I guess they'd feel silly just saying "I hate this guy because he didn't do what I hoped he'd do in a sport I follow." They feel they need better reasons.

Actually it fits into a pattern of things I've heard. But he definitely acts like a wanker at the start of the video. Then seems to force himself to be civil since Casey makes sure to let him know they are live (good for Casey). I was just commenting on what was shown...never said I hated him and I'll gladly vilify folks irregardless of their athletic performance. Commenting on available facts is a lot more fun than never saying anything because I don't have 100% intimate knowledge.

Then I commented on how I thought the Q.O. situation will play out... any thoughts on that? I think someone is going to make an offer that will make the matching decision very difficult.

 

[Blazer_Hippie]

I really don't know what folks expect. If I was him, all these questions and rehab would probably be getting pretty old by now too.

Anyone in the public sphere deals with repetitive irritating questions because there are so many news outlets going after their own interview and it's part of marketing. It's how folks deal with it that gives a little window into who folks are...

 

[PapaG]

You keep saying that, but to me it makes absolutely no sense. IMO, he's going to get offers from other teams for something like 3 years at $8 to $10 mil per year and the Blazers will match any such offer. Even if no other team makes this kind of an offer (and I think that's highly unlikely), the Blazers would make him an offer like that on their own. He's such a potential game changer that he's worth the risk. He'd really have to hate Portland to turn down a guaranteed salary of $8 mil per year for 3 years to take a risky one year deal at the same price just so he can be a free agent the following season.

It's just my gut opinion. He's young enough that he's going to get another contract anyhow, and I don't see there being much of a season next year. It would make sense to take the Q.O., play in a shortened season (or no season at all), and then go on the open market. At least, it makes sense to me. I'm not saying that's what he's going to do, but that I think that's what he's going to do.

 

[PapaG]

He'll take the Q.O., but he'll stay in PDX since we'll be the ones giving it to him.

I meant the year after taking the Q.O., which would be "as fast as he can" get out of PDX on his own terms.

 

[Blazer_Hippie]

Is the Q.O. only a 1 year deal? (I'm not very cap/contract savvy)

 

[PapaG]

Is the Q.O. only a 1 year deal? (I'm not very cap/contract savvy)

Yes. The Blazers have to offer it to retain his RFA rights for this summer. It's roughly $8.2 million for next year's Oden contract.

That said, once it is offered, Oden has two choices.

1) Decline the Q.O., and become a restricted free agent this summer, meaning the Blazers can match any offer.
2) Accept the Q.O., and play next season on a one-year/$8.2 million contract, and become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2012.

The kicker in all of this is that Portland must offer the Q.O. under the current labor agreement, but that agreement expires prior to free agency, meaning there would be a lock-out. If Oden accepts the Q.O., and next season is mostly lost, then he is still an unrestricted free agent in 2012.

 

[Blazer_Hippie]

Ahhh... a little trickier than I thought. I thought it was more than a single year.

 

[Minstrel]

Actually it fits into a pattern of things I've heard. But he definitely acts like a wanker at the start of the video. Then seems to force himself to be civil since Casey makes sure to let him know they are live (good for Casey). I was just commenting on what was shown...

What was shown really doesn't communicate what Oden feels about people of lesser status. If anything, it communicates that he wasn't into that interview. I've seen him do interviews where he's a perfectly nice, cool guy. I don't see it as anything other than typically human to sometimes not be at one's best.

Then I commented on how I thought the Q.O. situation will play out... any thoughts on that? I think someone is going to make an offer that will make the matching decision very difficult.

Well, personally, I hope someone does that, to be honest. My real fear is Oden taking the QO, playing out one season and then leaving as an unrestricted free agent. I don't think any team will offer him a max deal, obviously, so even a $10-12 million/year deal I'd want Portland to match. Well, depending on how CBA negotiations go. Let me say, under the current rules, I'd want Portland to keep Oden around even on a fairly large deal...because he's undeniably extremely talented and I'd gamble on the health. Under a hard cap....maybe not.

 

[Blazer_Hippie]

Well, personally, I hope someone does that, to be honest. My real fear is Oden taking the QO, playing out one season and then leaving as an unrestricted free agent. I don't think any team will offer him a max deal, obviously, so even a $10-12 million/year deal I'd want Portland to match. Well, depending on how CBA negotiations go. Let me say, under the current rules, I'd want Portland to keep Oden around even on a fairly large deal...because he's undeniably extremely talented and I'd gamble on the health. Under a hard cap....maybe not.

I guess I can't imagine someone with his injury history accepting a QO that only guarantees him 1 year of salary. Especially when you know you can do better than that on the open market. Seems like a huge financial risk just to be able to get out of Portland.

 

[Entity]

If I was 23 and had been asked the same questions for four years I'd probably make a Q&A pamphlet and hand it out, then "no comment" any poorly disguised repeat questions.

 

[PapaG]

I guess I can't imagine someone with his injury history accepting a QO that only guarantees him 1 year of salary. Especially when you know you can do better than that on the open market. Seems like a huge financial risk just to be able to get out of Portland.

What's the guarantee that he's offered anything more than the MLE for 3 years this summer? Many teams are literally operating in the red, and somebody with cap space is going to spend $30 million on a guy that will have played 20% of his available games over five seasons?

That's if there is even a free agency period prior to the 20011-12 season, whatever there may be of it. I wonder why Oden wouldn't accept the Q.O., when you look at the teams with cap space, and with the labor situation being so uncertain.

 

[Blazer_Hippie]

If I was 23 and had been asked the same questions for four years I'd probably make a Q&A pamphlet and hand it out, then "no comment" any poorly disguised repeat questions.

Derailing a bit...but I have a 170 pound dog and I've considered making a card with the answers to the questions I get asked about him 5 times a day --> (170 pounds, yes he eats a lot, yes he drools, yes he sheds a lot, etc) Sounds like a good idea for Oden --> (No timeline, trying not too bulk up too much, cardio, pool work, tough to watch the guys play).

 

[hasoos]

Anyone in the public sphere deals with repetitive irritating questions because there are so many news outlets going after their own interview and it's part of marketing. It's how folks deal with it that gives a little window into who folks are...

That is meaningless. There have been many players who have not dealt with the media well and have kicked total ass on the NBA court.

 

[Blazer_Hippie]

What's the guarantee that he's offered anything more than the MLE for 3 years this summer? Many teams are literally operating in the red, and somebody with cap space is going to spend $30 million on a guy that will have played 20% of his available games over five seasons?

That's if there is even a free agency period prior to the 20011-12 season, whatever there may be of it. I wonder why Oden wouldn't accept the Q.O., when you look at the teams with cap space, and with the labor situation being so uncertain.

What is the MLE amount at?

 

[PapaG]

This is a tangential question, but remember the rumors that Oden was originally hurt playing DanceDance Revolution at Players?

Would that matter to anyone?

For me, it would not matter if he got injured doing that, or if it happened grabbing a rebound.

Just wanted to get that off of my chest. I think that whole DDR thing was way overblown, even if there was a kernel of truth to it.

 

[Blazer_Hippie]

That is meaningless. There have been many players who have not dealt with the media well and have kicked total ass on the NBA court.

That's why they are 2 different discussions...you're the one linking them. I never did.

 

[PapaG]

What is the MLE amount at?

Somewhere in the $5.8 million - $6 million range, most likely for next summer (if there is an NBA summer).

 

[BlazerCaravan]

That is an interesting dichotomy; if a lot of teams are at/above the salary cap, an MLE is all they can offer an unrestricted free agent anyway. Also, there's rumors that these exceptions would be reduced or removed in a new CBA, giving Oden even fewer options in the UFA market. Does he take 8.2 million guaranteed and the hope that some team other than Portland will offer more than the MLE minimum, or does he take a 3-year MLE deal and wait until he has an opportunity to up his value for the next round of FA negotiations in 3 years' time?

It seems to me like six of one, half a dozen of the other. One option is high risk/high reward while the other is less risky but potentially less rewarding.

 

[Blazer_Hippie]

$18 Million > $8 Million

If I'm his financial advisor I'm telling him to lock in for 3 years if he can.

The Cap uncertainty certainly throws a wrench into stuff...as long as we have Paul Allen I'm hoping for no hard cap

 

[PapaG]

$18 Million > $8 Million

If I'm his financial advisor I'm telling him to lock in for 3 years if he can.

The Cap uncertainty certainly throws a wrench into stuff...as long as we have Paul Allen I'm hoping for no hard cap

Well, that contract may not even be available. Plus, with more injury filled seasons, that might be his last contract.

His mental health also needs to be considered. Is he happy in Portland? Does he want to stay here for another 3-5 years? Only Greg knows if more money is worth that to him. We'll find out sometime after the season.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

$18 Million > $8 Million

If I'm his financial advisor I'm telling him to lock in for 3 years if he can.

The Cap uncertainty certainly throws a wrench into stuff...as long as we have Paul Allen I'm hoping for no hard cap

8mil+18mil > 18mil alone. That's the balancing factor here. He can get an MLE deal as a UFA, and still bank the QO. But as an RFA, he can potentially get more than 18 mil in 3 years' time.

I, as a fan of our billionaire owner, want a soft cap as well

 

[Blazer_Hippie]

8mil+18mil > 18mil alone. That's the balancing factor here. He can get an MLE deal as a UFA, and still bank the QO. But as an RFA, he can potentially get more than 18 mil in 3 years' time.

That assumes no career ending injury. It's just such a huge risk financially for him to not take extra years... I guess time will tell. Also there is a chance he could get a little cake to eat too right? It's not out of the question that someone below the cap would offer more than the MLE. Risky for sure but maybe a team takes THAT risk/reward scenario. This is why Cho makes the big bucks...heh.

 

[oldmangrouch]

You keep saying that, but to me it makes absolutely no sense. IMO, he's going to get offers from other teams for something like 3 years at $8 to $10 mil per year and the Blazers will match any such offer. Even if no other team makes this kind of an offer (and I think that's highly unlikely), the Blazers would make him an offer like that on their own. He's such a potential game changer that he's worth the risk. He'd really have to hate Portland to turn down a guaranteed salary of $8 mil per year for 3 years to take a risky one year deal at the same price just so he can be a free agent the following season.

If Stern reaches his goal - a 30% reduction in payrolls - it would be suicidal to gamble that much on Oden. In a few years, I would guess that only the top 10-15 players in the league can command a $10 million salary.