Using 2nd rounders

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BrianFromWA

BrianFromWA

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Going into this year's draft about a week ago, we had the following 2nd rounders:
We had the #39, 40, #45 pick
we have no 2014 pick (already to DEN)
We had ours and the worse of MIN and DEN's 2015 second
We had ours and the NYK 2016 2nd (protected 31-37--if we didn't get it in 2016 we don't get one)
we had our 2017 and 2018

We picked Withey at 39 (traded to NOP for Lopez),
traded #40 for cash
We traded HOU 2 for Robinson (and our pick at #45)
We traded CLE 2 for Crabbe
We've supposedly traded 2 for Lopez

Assuming that we got the NYK 2016 (and it's not a lock) then our first available 2nd rounder is in 2019. If not, then 2020.
However, we did just trade 2 of our picks for cash in the last two years (forehead slap).

And, according the the "7 Year Rule", we have available to trade our 2019* and 2020 2nd rounders.
 
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BrianFromWA said:
Going into this year's draft about a week ago, we had the following 2nd rounders:
We had the #39, 40, #45 pick
we have no 2014 pick (already to DEN)
We had ours and the worse of MIN and DEN's 2015 second
We had ours and the NYK 2016 2nd (protected 31-37--if we didn't get it in 2016 we don't get one)
we had our 2017 and 2018

We picked Withey at 39,
traded #40 for cash
We traded HOU 2 for Robinson (and our pick at #45)
We traded CLE 2 for Crabbe
We've supposedly traded 2 for Lopez

Assuming that we got the NYK 2016 (and it's not a lock) then our first available 2nd rounder is in 2018. If not, then 2019.
However, we did just trade 2 of our picks for cash in the last two years (forehead slap).

And, according the the "7 Year Rule", we have available to trade our 2019* and 2020 2nd rounders.
Click to expand...

Translation: Neil Olshey isn't done dealing. :lol:
 
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If the current youth movement remotely pans out, then we'll have no room for long-term projects, anyway.
 
We may pick a few of them up along the way in trades though. They don't really have much value.
 
I get what Brian is saying and I agree, the NBA needs to add a 3rd round.
 
our 2014 was traded to DEN draft day 2011
 
Yes. On my site, the team farthest to the right is the team which now owns the pick.
 
We had ours and the worse of MIN and DEN's 2015 second
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Hmm. My site lists that pick twice, because it's a choice of 2 picks. I can understand the confusion because it was an embarrassing Kahn error, having us draft for them when they didn't have the pick to give us they said they had. This is the compensation.

So that changes my "5 #2s" above to 4. Fixed:

This hasn't been updated since the draft a week ago. As of then we had 4 #2s coming in the next 3 drafts, 2014-16. After that, one each draft.
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What is your source that says the 2016 Knicks pick is protected?
 
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BrianFromWA said:
And, according the the "7 Year Rule", we have available to trade our 2019* and 2020 2nd rounders.
Click to expand...

The 7-year rule says that we cannot have traded picks beyond 2018, right? 8 days ago, we had 6 #2s in 2014-2018 (including the protected Knicks pick). Olshey traded 5 of them (Robinson 2, Crabbe 2, Lopez 1). So we now have 1 second-round pick between now and 2019 (0 if we lose the Knicks pick, 1 it's one of the 5 we traded).

I am one who doesn't consider top-half #2s worthless, especially with Olshey's selection skill. Also, they're useful to lubricate trades. He went on a 1-week spending spree of 5 #2s, and I hope the mortgage pays off.

When Lenny Wilkens became Sonic GM from Bill Russell in 1977, he immediately spent all the draft picks Russell had squirelled away for a rainy day. With new players, the team suddenly won more games and Wilkens was praised as a better coach than Russell. He was just a big spender. Over the next 30 itinerant years, Wilkens would run each team into the ground after first-year success due to cashing in its chips, then move on to the next city.
 
jlprk said:
The 7-year rule says that we cannot have traded picks beyond 2018, right? 8 days ago, we had 6 #2s in 2014-2018 (including the protected Knicks pick). Olshey traded 5 of them (Robinson 2, Crabbe 2, Lopez 1). So we now have 1 second-round pick between now and 2019 (0 if we lose the Knicks pick, 1 it's one of the 5 we traded).
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The 7-year rule starts in the draft year you're in. So the 2014 draft will be "Year One" of the 7, and 2020's draft is year 7. So we can trade any picks up to and including 2020's draft, provided they meet other criteria.

I am one who doesn't consider top-half #2s worthless, especially with Olshey's selection skill. Also, they're useful to lubricate trades. He went on a 1-week spending spree of 5 #2s, and I hope the mortgage pays off.
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I had a post in another thread that basically said I think buying up picks between 25-35 is one of the most efficient and cost-productive ways of filling out a roster--whether you're a team like MIA or us.
 
I'm trying to recall the last 2nd round pick that was actually productive for our team.

I guess you could argue that we could've had Faried easily, or that we had Asik and traded him. And of course Matthews could've been drafted quite easily with a 2nd rounder.

But if you just consider our last, say, 15 second round players, how many of those players went on to be significant assets for our team? Seems like it's much, much more common that the pick itself is used to grease the skids on a trade. Which is exactly how Olshey has used them. He's leveraged a bunch of second rounders into one guy who was picked last year at #5, a veteran 7 foot center (who was once a #15 pick), and also the 31st pick (which means a second round salary paid to a near-first round player).

I think the way we've blown through second rounders is definitely thread-worthy. I can't remember such a spending spree of second rounders ever happening before in such short span. But I'm totally ok with it. (Other than selling that #40).
 
Okay, so in the next 7 drafts, 2014-2020, we have 2 or 3 2nd-round picks, depending upon whether the Knicks are bottom 7 in 2016.

As for mook's post, I see a big upgrade in selection quality under Olshey compared to Pritchard. So I suddenly value #2s more. The two he traded for Crabbe will definitely survive in the league. At only #31, Crabbe may have a worse career than one of them. Withey may become as good as Lopez. These are quality picks we're losing.
 
jlprk said:
As for mook's post, I see a big upgrade in selection quality under Olshey compared to Pritchard. So I suddenly value #2s more. The two he traded for Crabbe will definitely survive in the league. At only #31, Crabbe may have a worse career than one of them. Withey may become as good as Lopez. These are quality picks we're losing.
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I don't think Withey will be in the league long. Look at the post I just made in the Withey thread to see why.
 
Dante Cunningham turned out well and helped net us (no pun intended) Lillard. But, he was also a much more polished prospect than Withey and was pretty high in the 2nd round. I really don't understand why people are fretting over giving up Withey for a legit starter. Withey is a long-shot to stick in the league, let alone be productive. In his case, "defensive-minded" just means the rest of his game is abysmal.
 
handiman said:
Dante Cunningham turned out well and helped net us (no pun intended) Lillard. But, he was also a much more polished prospect than Withey and was pretty high in the 2nd round. I really don't understand why people are fretting over giving up Withey for a legit starter. Withey is a long-shot to stick in the league, let alone be productive. In his case, "defensive-minded" just means the rest of his game is abysmal.
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That's a good one. I forgot about him (picked at #33) and Pendergraph (#31). That they were such high second rounders kind of gets at Brian's point, though. Us leveraging two lower second round picks to get Crabbe at #31 looks even better.

Maybe I should've phrased it "how many mid-to-late second rounders were worth anything"?
 
1080 is reporting that we're also receiving 2 future 2nd-round picks from the Kings in the Lopez deal. Alright--more picks to deal!!
 
Blazers second rounders since 2003

2003 - Nedzad Sinanovic 7-1 C Zenica Celik (Bosnia-Herzegovina) 1983

2004 - Ha Seung-Jin 7-3 300 C (S. Korea) 1985

2005 - Ricky Sanchez 6-11 190 SF FL HSSr.

2006 - Joel Freeland 6-11 225 PF England 1987

2007 - Josh McRoberts 6-10 240 PF Duke So.
Derrick Byars 6-7 225 SG/SF Vand. Sr.
Taurean Green 6-0 177 PG Florida Jr
Demetris Nichols 6-7 205 SF Syracuse Sr.

2008 - Joey Dorsey 6-7 265 PF/C Memphis Sr.
Omer Asik 7-0 220 PF/C Turkey 1986

2009 - Dante Cunningham 6-8 227 SF/PF Villanova Sr
Jon Brockman 6-7 255 PF Washington Sr.
Patrick Mills 6-0 175 PG St. Mary's So.

2010 - Armon Johnson 6-3 190 PG/SG Nevada Jr.

2011 - Jon Diebler 6-6 197 SG Ohio State Sr.

2012 - Will Barton 6-6 174 SG/SF Memphis So.

How many of these guys would you want on your team?
 
Natebishop3 said:
Blazers second rounders since 2003

2003 - Nedzad Sinanovic 7-1 C Zenica Celik (Bosnia-Herzegovina) 1983

2004 - Ha Seung-Jin 7-3 300 C (S. Korea) 1985

2005 - Ricky Sanchez 6-11 190 SF FL HSSr.

2006 - Joel Freeland 6-11 225 PF England 1987

2007 - Josh McRoberts 6-10 240 PF Duke So.
Derrick Byars 6-7 225 SG/SF Vand. Sr.
Taurean Green 6-0 177 PG Florida Jr
Demetris Nichols 6-7 205 SF Syracuse Sr.

2008 - Joey Dorsey 6-7 265 PF/C Memphis Sr.
Omer Asik 7-0 220 PF/C Turkey 1986

2009 - Dante Cunningham 6-8 227 SF/PF Villanova Sr
Jon Brockman 6-7 255 PF Washington Sr.
Patrick Mills 6-0 175 PG St. Mary's So.

2010 - Armon Johnson 6-3 190 PG/SG Nevada Jr.

2011 - Jon Diebler 6-6 197 SG Ohio State Sr.

2012 - Will Barton 6-6 174 SG/SF Memphis So.

How many of these guys would you want on your team?
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I guess there are a few guys on there I could live with on my team. How many of them would I prefer to Robin Lopez? None, other than Asik.
 
Jesus, did we really draft Freeland 7 years ago? That is a Stoudamire-esque level of time commitment to failure.
 
mook said:
Maybe I should've phrased it "how many mid-to-late second rounders were worth anything"?
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That's the key. There's a chance one of them will turn out well, but most will amount to nothing. If you can flip a few of them for established players or legit prospects, you do so without a second thought. The fact that we accomplished both in the course of a week is brilliant maneuvering on Olshey's part.
 
We gave away the only decent second round pick on that list. Hope Withey doesn't turn out to be the second.
 
That list is all Pritchard except the first and the last two. On half of them, he spent a million dollars to get it. But Olshey makes better picks, so it's irrelevant to the future.
 
BBert said:
We gave away the only decent second round pick on that list. Hope Withey doesn't turn out to be the second.
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The only thing that really scares me is that Neil seems to be a very good evaluator of talent, so giving away any of the guys on his big board seems risky :lol:
 
In general, this shows that second rounders are much more often trade assets than they are contributing players. Trade assets clearly have their own value, however. If we did get back two second rounders in the Lopez deal, as was reported this morning, I no longer care that we gave up this year's No. 39 pick in the draft.

But I'm still pissed we sold a second rounder two years in a row. Unless that No. 40 pick was an under the table pay back to OKC for us getting Maynor last year, or some other unknown deal, selling picks for no asset in return is just unnaceptable.
 
BBert said:
In general, this shows that second rounders are much more often trade assets than they are contributing players. Trade assets clearly have their own value, however. If we did get back two second rounders in the Lopez deal, as was reported this morning, I no longer care that we gave up this year's No. 39 pick in the draft.

But I'm still pissed we sold a second rounder two years in a row. Unless that No. 40 pick was an under the table pay back to OKC for us getting Maynor last year, selling picks for no asset in return is just unnaceptable.
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If you go through the drafts over the last 10 years, there were definitely some really good names on there, but they are few and far between. Usually there's maybe one or two really serviceable players taken in the second round, but almost never a star quality player. It's guys like Asik, or Varejao, or Trevor Ariza, or Carl Landry..... there is the occasional Marc Gasol though.

The only thing that really stands out to me is that starting quality big men can be found in the second round, so I guess that's one reason to be worried :devilwink:
 
Natebishop3 said:
The only thing that really stands out to me is that starting quality big men can be found in the second round
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The list proves only that Pritchard missed them. It doesn't prove that Olshey will.
 
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