Vegas" Over/Under On Season Wins = 49 (??)

[ABM]

For reals?!?

If so, I just may plunk some Benjamins down on that. Naturally, OVER!

 

[BlazerCaravan]

For reals?!?

If so, I just may plunk some Benjamins down on that. Naturally, OVER!

Oh fuck yeah! Putting a $20 on that shiz!

 

[illmatic99]

Easy $$

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Easy $$

[video=youtube;b9bmfsbvxGc]

 

[Eastoff]

I could not find anywhere to back up these odds, ie to make some money.

 

[ABM]

I could not find anywhere to back up these odds, ie to make some money.

I believe I heard that number on Wheels @ Work earlier this week.

 

[mook]

Show me a link. I've never gambled online before (I haven't even played poker for pennies in a decade), but hell yeah I'm going to start if that's true. No way Portland finishes under 50 wins. Even if Roy goes down for the season in game 1, I still think there's a pretty fair chance we win 50.

I'm serious. I'll put $500 on that fucker.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Vegas seems to think the overall strength of the league will be more balanced, thus altering the win totals back down.

So the Blazers only winning 49 may be disappointing to Blazer fans, it still may be pretty good. Where do they have the other Western teams?

 

[MickZagger]

Show me a link. I've never gambled online before (I haven't even played poker for pennies in a decade), but hell yeah I'm going to start if that's true. No way Portland finishes under 50 wins. Even if Roy goes down for the season in game 1, I still think there's a pretty fair chance we win 50.

I'm serious. I'll put $500 on that fucker.

I've frequented sports gambling websites for a couple years now. Do research on which sites to use if your going to. Bodog pays out within 2 weeks of cashing out. Sportsbook and bookmaker are other good sites.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

going tomorrow! should I throw down a C-note?



Only thing that sucks is I won't get paid until like May and that paper will disintegrate by then

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

I think he was referencing the NBA.com writer that quoted that. I'm pretty close to the oddsmaking industry and I'm pretty sure the over/under for wins hasn't been released and isn't even that close to being released yet. Add that to the fact that I'm guessing the range will be somewhere between 53-56 using regression models, so there is no way the computers and arbitrage are going to move them down to 49.

 

[Masbee]

For reals?!?

If so, I just may plunk some Benjamins down on that. Naturally, OVER!

I am in Nevada now. Next time I am have the opportunity to waltz into a casino sportsbook I will check it out. I would place money on 49 games. I think that is a pretty good bet to take the over, even considering the injury risk with the Blazers roster history.

Somehow, I doubt that bet exists. Just seems too good. 54 games 2 years ago. 50 games with an injury hobbled roster. Now everyone is currently healthy except Pryz, and 49 is the call?

 

[blazerboy30]

If this is *really* the case, I'd throw down a few hundred on the Blazers going over 49 wins. (And I never gamble.)

 

[Ed O]

I doubt those are the real odds, too. That's the number ESPN predicted, right?

Ed O.

 

[Luther]

I heard it on the BFT I think. I was thinking what most of you guys are thinking....that is some easy money. Another easy one should be the Thunders over/under...Vegas will probably have them winning 60.

 

[hasoos]

That all depends on how many "Donnaghy's" are left in the league. Now it isn't such sure money is it?

 

[Idog1976]

going tomorrow! should I throw down a C-note?



Only thing that sucks is I won't get paid until like May and that paper will disintegrate by then

You're a smart man. I know exactly what you mean and think you are probably right.

 

[Minstrel]

You're a smart man. I know exactly what you mean and think you are probably right.

Bet gold doubloons.

 

[Blazer_Mullet_Man]

The only lines I see open for NBA are for MVP and Rookie of the Year.

 

[MickZagger]

I looked around. The only thing I see is that we have 35/1 odds to win a title this year.

Heat are 7/4 odds and Lakers 11/4.

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

I looked around. The only thing I see is that we have 35/1 odds to win a title this year.

Heat are 7/4 odds and Lakers 11/4.

I'd love to find those odds. So far most casinos are posting 20/1 for Portland, although if you shop you can find some selling for 25/1 (I think a few raised from 20 to 25 after the CP3 thing fell through, they were hovering steady with the 8th best odds for a few weeks there when CP3 was in question).

 

[Mediocre Man]

Ya, you guys are right. Vegas has no idea what they are doing. It's obviously over

 

[MickZagger]

I'd love to find those odds. So far most casinos are posting 20/1 for Portland, although if you shop you can find some selling for 25/1 (I think a few raised from 20 to 25 after the CP3 thing fell through, they were hovering steady with the 8th best odds for a few weeks there when CP3 was in question).

bodog

What do you do that has to do with Vegas lines?

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

What do you do that has to do with Vegas lines?

Somewhat removed in the last couple years. But I designed a Neyman-Pearson based predictive model for a collegue that is now using it. He's one of the leads of a firm based out of Reno.

He actually hired me to program it when I used a rough version of it many many years ago to win a Vegas handicapping competition. But I digress, that wasn't the question. LOL.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Ya, you guys are right. Vegas has no idea what they are doing. It's obviously over

It's amazing how quickly people forget that this is a business that makes money by convincing you that a bad bet is a good bet!

 

[Minstrel]

It's amazing how quickly people forget that this is a business that makes money by convincing you that a bad bet is a good bet!

That's not how Vegas oddsmakers work. You're thinking of the casinos. The sports books aren't attempting to make money by "winning bets"...they try to set the odds so that the money on each side balances. And then they make their money off taking a cut from each bet.

So "Vegas" isn't betting one way or the other. They're just finding the break-even point of all the bettors. If you bet the over, you're making the bet that most gamblers have underrated the Blazers. And gamblers are really no more sophisticated as sports analysts than regular fans. They're just as susceptible to the factors that can lead fans to underrate or overrate a team. Though they will often follow injury reports closer than most average fans.

 

[oldmangrouch]

I admit I am a terrible cynic - but I don't trust anything to do with professional gambling.

 

[ABM]

That's not how Vegas oddsmakers work. You're thinking of the casinos. The sports books aren't attempting to make money by "winning bets"...they try to set the odds so that the money on each side balances. And then they make their money off taking a cut from each bet.

So "Vegas" isn't betting one way or the other. They're just finding the break-even point of all the bettors. If you bet the over, you're making the bet that most gamblers have underrated the Blazers. And gamblers are really no more sophisticated as sports analysts than regular fans. They're just as susceptible to the factors that can lead fans to underrate or overrate a team. Though they will often follow injury reports closer than most average fans.

Very succinct way of spelling this out.

Rep'd!

 

[ehizzy3]

if that really was the over/under. i'd need someone here to take my money and put a bet down(not old enough)

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

That's not how Vegas oddsmakers work. You're thinking of the casinos. The sports books aren't attempting to make money by "winning bets"...they try to set the odds so that the money on each side balances. And then they make their money off taking a cut from each bet.

So "Vegas" isn't betting one way or the other. They're just finding the break-even point of all the bettors. If you bet the over, you're making the bet that most gamblers have underrated the Blazers. And gamblers are really no more sophisticated as sports analysts than regular fans. They're just as susceptible to the factors that can lead fans to underrate or overrate a team. Though they will often follow injury reports closer than most average fans.

Well put. I like to think of it as the Oddsmakers are running the computer programs that get a line to exactly 50% either way, so they have a contract with the casinos/bookmakers to "mint the coin" so when you flip it, it comes out no worse than 53%/47% over time so they can make money on their "cut". That's the sole purpose of an oddsmaker, to "mint the perfect 50/50 coin" so the casino will know the starting point.

The Bookmakers will then use that information to attempt to get the perfect 50/50 split with betting. If their own history shows that a lot of Los Angeles fans come in and like to bet the Lakers, they will push their statistical line of say 57.3 wins up to 59 as a starting point using historical data that the bettors will artificially push the line. So their objective is still not to entice anyone with a bad bet, it's to get the perfect mix.

Right now, odds probably say Miami is 4:1 to win the title and Lakers are also probably 5:1, but nobody is running in and betting Denver or Atlanta or Utah, etc. Everyone visiting Vegas and getting 3-4 beers in them is saying, "Hey, Miami just got LeBron and Bosh, I'm going to drop a couple hundred on Miami to win the title". The the sheer mass of millions of stupid, drunk bettors on a weekly basis saying that to themselves will literally push Miami to some absurd 2:1 or worse. LA fans are thinking Kobe is still going to be healthy for some reason and that they're going to beat Miami, so suddenly they're flocking and betting themselves down to 3:1 . The bookies all know this and lowered their lines from the start and are forcing people to make bad bets if they want it, because it's the only way it will even out the line in the end when the smart money comes in and bets the arbitrage on other side.