Wallace/Aldridge/Camby

[BlazerCaravan]

Who else loved the play were Roy caused Shannon Brown to fall on his ass? Of course it was a little ruined by Roy going "WTF I can still do that to people?" and then missing the shot.

That move looked like it hurt Roy a bit, though... big lateral moves seem to be rare items on his menu anymore. It was fun to watch, but it looked to me like they both kinda tripped themselves up.

 

[Rhal]

How shocking, the ESPN round table barely talks about the Wallace deal and doesn't even mention if blazers were winners or losers, just said Cha traded him to us and left it at that.

 

[Ghost Pepper]

All I can say is Artest wouldn't have done that damage on the boards last night with Crash in there! Day late! HAHAHAHA!

 

[blazerboy30]

Best rebounding frontcourt in the NBA?

Now if only that bum Cho could pull off the deal. KP would have gotten this done already.

 

[Run BJM]

How shocking, the ESPN round table barely talks about the Wallace deal and doesn't even mention if blazers were winners or losers, just said Cha traded him to us and left it at that.

I'd say moving two firsts for him = lose. But you did get far and away the best player in the deal and made your team better.

That said, I'll put the over/under at 3 games until we see daily "Gerald Wallace is teh suckz I told you all along Cho!" threads.

 

[Minstrel]

I'd say moving two firsts for him = lose.

First round picks outside the top ten have low expected yield. Most fans and media overrate mid- to late-first round picks, IMO.

 

[JDC]

I'd say moving two firsts for him = lose. But you did get far and away the best player in the deal and made your team better.

That said, I'll put the over/under at 3 games until we see daily "Gerald Wallace is teh suckz I told you all along Cho!" threads.

Those firsts are in the 20's more than likely plus Portland still has it's 2011 first (pretty sure the NO pick got shipped).

That dampens that blow I think.

 

[JDC]

First round picks outside the top ten have low expected yield. Most fans and media overrate mid- to late-first round picks, IMO.

I actually like some guys in that section of the draft so I like that we're able to keep one of the 2011 1sts.

Markieff Morris would be nice get out of Kansas. Solid back-up 4/5 in the future. Marcus Morris maybe, better scorer but he's a 4/3 which we don't need as much. Probably will be picked before he gets to the Blazers anyways.

That or Nolan Smith.

 

[Rhal]

I'd say moving two firsts for him = lose. But you did get far and away the best player in the deal and made your team better.

That said, I'll put the over/under at 3 games until we see daily "Gerald Wallace is teh suckz I told you all along Cho!" threads.

Two firsts that are late in the draft aren't really worth that much. You can find good players in it but we would just have these guys sitting on the bench not getting any playing time.

 

[Run BJM]

First round picks outside the top ten have low expected yield. Most fans and media overrate mid- to late-first round picks, IMO.

Completely agree with that but none the less when you're talking about giving up two first round picks for a proven player that's typically something better than Gerald Wallace. I'd be surprised if any other teams even offered one first round pick for Wallace. Battier got moved for Thabeet and one first round pick.

Yeah though, most picks from 12-30 are no better than an early second round pick and at least with the seconds they're easy to get rid of when you know they're a bust. Still though, they do have a certain value to them and could shock you and end up being decent picks or re-traded in another trade, you can combine them to move up, etc. etc. IMO two firsts is a lot for a good-not-great player.

 

[Minstrel]

Completely agree with that but none the less when you're talking about giving up two first round picks for a proven player that's typically something better than Gerald Wallace. I'd be surprised if any other teams even offered one first round pick for Wallace. Battier got moved for Thabeet and one first round pick.

Battier's a significantly worse player, though. His production is lower and Wallace was first-team All Defense last year. Battier's defense, meanwhile, has slipped considerably from several years ago. That doesn't exactly argue for first round picks being worth a lot. I'd bet that Thabeet was really the point of the deal from Houston's perspective.

I disagree with your contention that two first round picks generally bring back players better than Wallace. My impression is that later first round picks are generally just throw-ins to bigger deals. They are almost never the major value in bringing back a good player. In this case, I don't think the first round picks were even the main motivating force for Charlotte...the expiring contract of Przybilla probably was.

 

[blazerboy30]

Completely agree with that but none the less when you're talking about giving up two first round picks for a proven player that's typically something better than Gerald Wallace. I'd be surprised if any other teams even offered one first round pick for Wallace. Battier got moved for Thabeet and one first round pick.

Yeah though, most picks from 12-30 are no better than an early second round pick and at least with the seconds they're easy to get rid of when you know they're a bust. Still though, they do have a certain value to them and could shock you and end up being decent picks or re-traded in another trade, you can combine them to move up, etc. etc. IMO two firsts is a lot for a good-not-great player.

We've shown that we can buy more picks if we want to. I'm not concerned about giving up a pick at ~20.

 

[blazerboy30]

Completely agree with that but none the less when you're talking about giving up two first round picks for a proven player that's typically something better than Gerald Wallace. I'd be surprised if any other teams even offered one first round pick for Wallace. Battier got moved for Thabeet and one first round pick.

What? You really think mid-to-late first round picks typically end up being better than Wallace, who is first-team defensive and a former All-star? We'll agree to disagree, or I misunderstood what you typed.

 

[OSUBlazerfan]

You know how much two mid-to-late first round picks costs the Blazers???

6 million dollars, or virtually nothing for the billlionare

 

[Run BJM]

Battier's a significantly worse player, though. His production is lower and Wallace was first-team All Defense last year. Battier's defense, meanwhile, has slipped considerably from several years ago. That doesn't exactly argue for first round picks being worth a lot. I'd bet that Thabeet was really the point of the deal from Houston's perspective.

I disagree with your contention that two first round picks generally bring back players better than Wallace. My impression is that later first round picks are generally just throw-ins to bigger deals. They are almost never the major value in bringing back a good player. In this case, I don't think the first round picks were even the main motivating force for Charlotte...the expiring contract of Przybilla probably was.

If you think Gerald Wallace is "significantly better" than Battier then we just don't see eye to eye. Agree to disagree lol.

You're right that first round picks typically don't bring back good players. But they have value as versatile assets. They can be used to make other trades. They can be used to move up in the draft. I don't know whose picks they are or what stipulations are on them but you never know how high they could be. Just based on observation of other trades, you don't see multiple first round picks being traded for a solid player.

But there in lies another distinction that may separate you guys and me. I don't think Crash is that good. Hes a solid starter and a versatile player. Hes an upgrade for you guys. I don't buy that his man defense is that great but I haven't been paying attention to him the past few seasons. He can score a little bit, mostly by "Crash"ing into the defense (he used to wear shoulder pads lol), but he can't shoot well and he can't create off the dribble. Perhaps thats fine if Andre Miller can set him up and he can play off of Aldridge (who you guys say is passing better lately). I think hes a good fit with Nate in Portland but I'm not sure he maintains the numbers hes been putting up in Charlotte the last few years. Will he get the same shot attempts? He probably won't get the 39-41 mpg. And hes having a down year in scoring and FG% already. I know you guys love PER so I'll throw out the fact that hes ranked 17th among SFs in PER.

What? You really think mid-to-late first round picks typically end up being better than Wallace, who is first-team defensive and a former All-star? We'll agree to disagree, or I misunderstood what you typed.

Don't think the players drafted with those picks will be better. Just think that the precedent for a trade in which a team sends two first round picks out is usually to get someone better than Wallace. But I suppose its all subjective as to how good you think Wallace is. And like you said, I didn't even think of the fact that Paul Allen can (and has) easily buy a comparable pick should you want it.

 

[VanillaGorilla]

Gerald Wallace is significantly better than Shane Battier.

 

[Minstrel]

I know you guys love PER so I'll throw out the fact that hes ranked 17th among SFs in PER.

And where is Battier ranked?

For Wallace, this is an unusually low PER for him. While it could be a permanent decline, it's more likely an off-year considering his age. For Battier, who's significantly older and has been just as unproductive for a number of years, it's not unusually low.

I was actually a fan of Battier's when he was in Memphis and thought he was underrated then and at the start of his Houston career. Now, I think he's overrated because his defense has slipped and that's where his value has lay during his Houston career. Wallace made the All-Defensive first team last year (and quite deserved, IMO) while also being pretty productive.

Also, I'd be curious what really good players (apparently defined as "clearly better than Gerald Wallace") have been acquired where the main value going back for them was two mid- to late-first round draft picks. IMO, I think you're overrating in your mind what first round picks will get you in a trade, but I'm definitely open to examples supporting your view.

 

[yenniedn]

This guy is a fuckin workhorse STUDDDDDDD!!! HUGE pickup especially for what we are giving up for him!!! HUGE! This makes us scary for so many teams!!!

You forgot to end your post with "Ha!!!" That's how we all know you really mean what you say and without it, the statement just doesn't have the same kind of impact. Ha!!!

 

[Run BJM]

Utah trades Deron Williams to New Jersey for Derrick Favors, Devin Harris, New Jersey's 2011 first-round pick, Golden State's 2012 first-round pick, and cash.

Minnesota Timberwolves traded forward Al Jefferson to the Utah Jazz for center Kosta Koufos and two future first-round draft picks

Cleveland Cavaliers signed forward LeBron James and traded him to Miami Heat for two future first-round draft picks and two future second-round draft picks.

Chris Bosh for two future first round draft picks.

New Jersey Nets traded guard Sasha Vujacic and a 2011 first round draft pick from the Los Angeles Lakers and a 2012 first-round draft pick from the Houston Rockets in a three team trade. The Nets trade forward/center Joe Smith and two second round draft picks to The Los Angeles Lakers and guard Terrence Williams to the Houston Rockeys.

In a three-team deal Sacramento trades Sergio Rodriguez to New York and Kevin Martin and Hilton Armstrong to Houston; Houston trades Tracy McGrady to New York and Carl Landry and Joey Dorsey to Sacramento; and New York trades Larry Hughes to Sacramento and Jordan Hill and Jared Jefferies to Houston. In addition, Houston has the opportunity to swap 2011 first-round picks with New York (top-1 protected) and receives New York's 2012 first-round pick (top-five protected).

http://www.hoopsworld.com/NBATrades.asp
http://backseatfan.com/2010/07/2010-2011-nba-trades/

Those are all the ones I can find dating back to 2006. Hard to compare most of them. The Vujacic one stands out as being particularly worthless. LeBron and Bosh are outliers on the opposite end. The last one listed is technically a "swap" and a pick so it probably really doesn't count since they probably won't be swapping. Deron trade had a pretty decent starting PG and young prospect in it to balance it. The Al Jefferson trade seems like the closest true value and its a pretty recent example.

 

[blazerboy30]

http://www.hoopsworld.com/NBATrades.asp
http://backseatfan.com/2010/07/2010-2011-nba-trades/

Those are all the ones I can find dating back to 2006. Hard to compare most of them. The Vujacic one stands out as being particularly worthless. LeBron and Bosh are outliers on the opposite end. The last one listed is technically a "swap" and a pick so it probably really doesn't count since they probably won't be swapping. Deron trade had a pretty decent starting PG and young prospect in it to balance it. The Al Jefferson trade seems like the closest true value and its a pretty recent example.

Other important pieces of information are whether the picks were protected, and where the teams were projected to finish in the standings. In your Jefferson example, the Timberwolves' picks were likely to be much better picks than the picks the Blazers gave up.

 

[maxiep]

Cho managed to protect our 2013 pick 1-12 in 2013, 2014 and 2015. So the deal basically guarantees two non-lottery picks.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Do I dare dream about

Oden
Camby
Wallace
Batum
Matthews

at one time? Literally not exagerating, but that might be the best defensive unit other teams will ever play against

 

[B-Roy]

Do I dare dream about

Oden
Camby
Wallace
Batum
Matthews

at one time? Literally not exagerating, but that might be the best defensive unit other teams will ever play against

Ball handling on offense would be down right embarrassing...

 

[Run BJM]

Other important pieces of information are whether the picks were protected, and where the teams were projected to finish in the standings. In your Jefferson example, the Timberwolves' picks were likely to be much better picks than the picks the Blazers gave up.

The Jazz sent the picks not the T'Wolves. lol those Jazz picks all of a sudden look better now (which is what I mean about how you never know where the picks will end up).

 

[Minstrel]

http://www.hoopsworld.com/NBATrades.asp
http://backseatfan.com/2010/07/2010-2011-nba-trades/

Those are all the ones I can find dating back to 2006. Hard to compare most of them. The Vujacic one stands out as being particularly worthless. LeBron and Bosh are outliers on the opposite end. The last one listed is technically a "swap" and a pick so it probably really doesn't count since they probably won't be swapping. Deron trade had a pretty decent starting PG and young prospect in it to balance it. The Al Jefferson trade seems like the closest true value and its a pretty recent example.

Jefferson was definitely a big value for first round draft picks.

LeBron and Bosh obviously don't count. They were leaving as free agents essentially, so it was just a concession to get something in order for Miami to have the Bird rights. If James and Bosh weren't pushing their way out of town as free agents, they would never have been dealt for picks.

And the draft picks in the Williams trade were just sweeteners...throws-ins, as I said before. It seems clear that the centerpiece values of that deal were Devin Harris and Derrick Favors.

So I'll definitely give you that Utah got a high-level player for two first round picks, but one trade in the last 5 years doesn't exactly validate that the general value of first round picks is a player better than Wallace. It seems like landing a player of Wallace's caliber for essentially just non-lottery picks is pretty rare. In fact, if Wallace gets back to his level of play of last year (All-Star, 18.3 PER, first team All-Defense), I think he's at least as good as Jefferson and probably better.

 

[Run BJM]

Its hard to compare the two. Al Jeff is a 20/10 PF on a crappy team. Hes now a 17/9 PF on a fairly good team but everyone in Utah seems to agree Boozer was better for them. I like Wallace more as a player (defense + rebounding = drool) but I value big men more than swingmen and bigmen who are go-to options are quite rare. IMO Al is more valuable and especially at the time of the trade his value was better, Gerald Wallace isn't that far off though.

Agree that the Bron/Bosh trades should be discarded but it is interesting that they pried two first round picks. They had zero leverage apparently so why didn't Miami lowball them harder? Pat Riley sure as hell seems like the guy who would tell them to take one first round pick and like it.

Anyway this debate seems to be getting off topic a bit. I like Crash and I think hes a good fit in PDX but I kind of expect his numbers to take a dip. I'd be a bit worried that hes having a down year. Hes only 28 but hes also a guy who has a history of injuries (at least one concussion) and seems to be banged up a lot. You certainly improved your team but I wonder how Wallace performs outside of Charlotte where he was always near the top of the pecking order and a big part of the offense. Dunno if playing off of Miller/Aldridge will help him or hurt him. Only time will tell.

Also it was very weird that pretty much no trades from 06 to about 09 had two first round picks going to one team and then after the first one there's been about 5 in a year or two.

 

[Minstrel]

Agree that the Bron/Bosh trades should be discarded but it is interesting that they pried two first round picks. They had zero leverage apparently so why didn't Miami lowball them harder? Pat Riley sure as hell seems like the guy who would tell them to take one first round pick and like it.

My guess is that Riley wanted their Bird Rights to make it easier to manage the cap. But since I didn't really pay a ton of attention to how they structured the deals with respect to the cap, it's just a theory.

Anyway this debate seems to be getting off topic a bit. I like Crash and I think hes a good fit in PDX but I kind of expect his numbers to take a dip. I'd be a bit worried that hes having a down year. Hes only 28 but hes also a guy who has a history of injuries (at least one concussion) and seems to be banged up a lot. You certainly improved your team but I wonder how Wallace performs outside of Charlotte where he was always near the top of the pecking order and a big part of the offense. Dunno if playing off of Miller/Aldridge will help him or hurt him. Only time will tell.

I'm a little concerned about the dip this year, but not too much. If the dip is permanent, it's still a solid deal. Even this year, his production is that of an average starter and I still love his defense. He can play without the ball and he's very versatile defensively, plus he rebounds. If there's such a thing as a perfect complimentary player, it's Wallace. Last year, he was "star complimentary player" IMO. The main thing is, he'll pretty much fit into any team.

If this is just a temporary dip and he gets back to past production levels, it's a big steal. So while I hope the dip isn't permanent, whether this was a good deal doesn't really hinge on it, IMO (unless he totally collapses from here, and his potential for injury is concerning).

I do think he's a natural fit with Miller. Miller is arguably the best alley-oop point guard in the league and Wallace is great at going and getting it and finishing. I think he'll thrive with Miller.

 

[Run BJM]

Is he going to have to play PF for long stretches? After LMA and Camby I'm blanking on who else you guys have down low.

 

[HailBlazers]

Do I dare dream about

Oden
Camby
Wallace
Batum
Matthews

at one time? Literally not exagerating, but that might be the best defensive unit other teams will ever play against

Ball handling on offense would be down right embarrassing...

Swap LMA for Camby and it wouldn't matter, Dump it in the post to either big!

 

[B-Roy]

Swap LMA for Camby and it wouldn't matter, Dump it in the post to either big!

Sorry, running an offense isn't as simple as "dump it into the post".