Week 3 Beyond Blazers Podcast topic suggestions

[Dan Marang]

Recording the Meyers Leonard podcast in the studio tomorrow morning, but I'm already looking forward to next week.

There's been a fair amount of chatter on a couple of topics here and on other forums- yes I'm from one of those other places - but I wanted to run a few ideas by everyone here and see where the interest was more focused.

Lately there's been a lot of chirping about CJ-Dame, comparing their games, what CJ's ceiling is, should he be traded, etc. That's A LOT to write/talk about. What to you is the most interesting angle when it comes to CJ and/or Dame?

Beyond that, I'm looking at doing a piece on Allen Crabbe and his evolution. Not actual crab evolution, that'd be interesting but totally irrelevant. See what I did there? I'll show myself out. But seriously, what would you like me to dive into? For those of you that have seen/heard my work, you know I can dig pretty deep - so let me know!

 

[PtldPlatypus]

The most interesting aspect of all of those to me is how the various pairings of the 3 perform on court together; are the Blazers better when all three are on the floor together, or with one of them sitting? Also, how big is the difference defensively when Dame/CJ are at 1-2 vs when Crabbe or Henderson are in at SG? And the most controversial topic of all--is it possible that the team actually better overall when CJ is at point and Dame is sitting?

 

[Eastoff]

The most interesting aspect of all of those to me is how the various pairings of the 3 perform on court together; are the Blazers better when all three are on the floor together, or with one of them sitting? Also, how big is the difference defensively when Dame/CJ are at 1-2 vs when Crabbe or Henderson are in at SG? And the most controversial topic of all--is it possible that the team actually better overall when CJ is at point and Dame is sitting?

This. This is the holy grail.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

I would like to see a focus on Defense in the podcast with CJ and Dame on the court at the same time. We know they produce on O. Is their D as bad (as a pair) as some people think? And would their D be better with both playing with Crabbe instead (You would have to think so - at least a little better)?

I think the only way that POR breaks this group up is if they can't get at least a little better at D (individually and as a group).

 

[BlazerWookee]

How about: The Reprehensibility of Rooting To Lose

 

[Dan Marang]

I would like to see a focus on Defense in the podcast with CJ and Dame on the court at the same time. We know they produce on O. Is their D as bad (as a pair) as some people think? And would their D be better with both playing with Crabbe instead (You would have to think so - at least a little better)?

I think the only way that POR breaks this group up is if they can't get at least a little better at D (individually and as a group).

One way or another- if a CJ-Dame profile happens this will be one of the things that tops the list. On other sites I've gone into detail about both of their defensive problems- so that will be highlighted again, albeit with more data this time. Be interesting to see the changes in trends over time as well.

 

[riverman]

I think it is worth visiting the idea of matchups where against some teams, you start CJ at the point and others you bring him off the bench. Also defense. Why CJ shoots our tech free throws? What trade value a guy like CJ would have around the league with teams that need his skillset..if traded, what would be a good fit for him?

 

[HailBlazers]

How about: The Reprehensibility of Rooting To Lose

AKA Rooting to Win a Championship

 

[BlazerWookee]

AKA Rooting to Win a Championship

AKA Hoping To Retire Comfortably By Winning at Powerball

 

[illmatic99]

AKA Hoping To Retire Comfortably By Winning at Powerball

Show me a powerball that has a 25% chance of winning the jackpot (probability of getting #1 if we had the worst record), and I'll: 1) buy that ticket this instant, 2) agree with your notion of reprehensibility .

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Show me a powerball that has a 25% chance of winning the jackpot (probability of getting #1 if we had the worst record), and I'll: 1) buy that ticket this instant, 2) agree with your notion of reprehensibility .

Though I know it was Wook who brought it up, I'd say that powerball is a bad comparison. To me, tanking for draft picks is more like quitting your job so you can have more time to go out and look for a better job.

 

[BlazerWookee]

Show me a powerball that has a 25% chance of winning the jackpot (probability of getting #1 if we had the worst record), and I'll: 1) buy that ticket this instant, 2) agree with your notion of reprehensibility .

Show me how getting the #1 draft pick gives us a 100% chance of winning the championship and I'll: 1) buy season tickets tomorrow and 2)give you my seats at no charge for ten games per season for the rest of your life.

 

[riverman]

Show me how getting the #1 draft pick gives us a 100% chance of winning the championship and I'll: 1) buy season tickets tomorrow and 2)give you my seats at no charge for ten games per season for the rest of your life.

Greg Oden...my god you're onto something Wook!

 

[riverman]

Then there's Anthony Davis...brought a ring to the big easy?...nope

 

[Dan Marang]

Then there's Anthony Davis...brought a ring to the big easy?...nope

This argument is disingenuous at best.

First of all... a #1 overall pick brought THIS team a title. Bill Walton says hi folks! Then, let's take a look at title teams in recent history '85+ with a top 2 pick on them.

Tim Duncan
Lebron James
Shaquille O'Neal
Andrew Bogut
David Robinson
Hakeem Olajuwon
James Worthy
Magic Johnson
Alonzo Mourning
Jason Kidd
Isiah Thomas
Tyson Chandler

Bump it to the 3rd pick and you get:

Michael Jordan
Kevin McHale
Chauncey Billups
Pau Gasol

These are guys I'm just rattling off the top of my head- and they're not just All Stars- most are HoF level players- but they're all title winners. While a #1 pick doesn't guarantee anyone a title it is historically proven that if you add a player from the Top 3 your odds of success is drastically higher than without it. It's something around a 15% chance that a player drafted in the Top 3 becomes an All Star- there is literally no better odds in the NBA that produce those results.

I get that folks are against tanking for this, that or another reason. But going out and winning without any plan beyond this season is about the most asinine thing the Blazers could do. The stand to gain absolutely nothing tangible. Beyond that- the players who would gain this coveted "playoff experience" - (Dame, CJ, Meyers, Crabbe, etc) have already HAD it. I don't want to go down this one too far because inevitably I'll end up doing a podcast on all the numbers since 1980 whatever- bottom line, forfeiting assets for no damn good reason is a good way to get your ass fired. Banking on a playoff push to help fuel future success is just as bad- say hi to this years Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns!! Everything is a crap shoot in the NBA, but if you're smart you play the long game and the odds- and the odds side strongly with assets over chest pounding rhetoric of "we did it the right way?!" One of those you can take to the bank, the other... well I'll let you guess where you can take it.

My 2 cents- take it as such.

 

[BBert]

... Banking on a playoff push to help fuel future success is just as bad- say hi to this years Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns!! Everything is a crap shoot in the NBA, but if you're smart you play the long game and the odds- and the odds side strongly with assets over chest pounding rhetoric of "we did it the right way?!" One of those you can take to the bank, the other... well I'll let you guess where you can take it.

I'd say, worse. It is rather funny when those who think a high lottery pick will improve the Blazers chances in future playoffs, are blasted by people who think a one and done in the playoffs will automatically mean all star free agents will flock to Portland, putting us over the top. How many years in a row were the Blazers in the playoffs again? And how many top free agents did they sign?

 

[Dan Marang]

I'd say, worse. It is rather funny when those who think a high lottery pick will improve the Blazers chances in future playoffs, are blasted by people who think a one and done in the playoffs will automatically mean all star free agents will flock to Portland, putting us over the top. How many years in a row were the Blazers in the playoffs again? And how many top free agents did they sign?

Before the anti-tank squad comes out of the woodwork to shoot me down let me just say this: I'm not a proponent of "TANKING" the way the 76ers have gone about it. I'm about playing your roster, getting the players who show growth opportunities, developing players/assets and seeing what you have to work with. Olshey did this last year when he made the move for Afflalo. It blew up when Wes went down but it was tactical. Those are the kind of risks you have to take- calculated and dangerous. But in order to take those risks you need one thing... ASSETS!!!! If you are not a title contender you should have 2 goals in mind- talent development and asset acquisition- those are tantamount to future success. Without those 2 objectives there is no championship, ever.

 

[riverman]

This argument is disingenuous at best.

First of all... a #1 overall pick brought THIS team a title. Bill Walton says hi folks! Then, let's take a look at title teams in recent history '85+ with a top 2 pick on them.

Tim Duncan
Lebron James
Shaquille O'Neal
Andrew Bogut
David Robinson
Hakeem Olajuwon
James Worthy
Magic Johnson
Alonzo Mourning
Jason Kidd
Isiah Thomas
Tyson Chandler

Bump it to the 3rd pick and you get:

Michael Jordan
Kevin McHale
Chauncey Billups
Pau Gasol

These are guys I'm just rattling off the top of my head- and they're not just All Stars- most are HoF level players- but they're all title winners. While a #1 pick doesn't guarantee anyone a title it is historically proven that if you add a player from the Top 3 your odds of success is drastically higher than without it. It's something around a 15% chance that a player drafted in the Top 3 becomes an All Star- there is literally no better odds in the NBA that produce those results.

I get that folks are against tanking for this, that or another reason. But going out and winning without any plan beyond this season is about the most asinine thing the Blazers could do. The stand to gain absolutely nothing tangible. Beyond that- the players who would gain this coveted "playoff experience" - (Dame, CJ, Meyers, Crabbe, etc) have already HAD it. I don't want to go down this one too far because inevitably I'll end up doing a podcast on all the numbers since 1980 whatever- bottom line, forfeiting assets for no damn good reason is a good way to get your ass fired. Banking on a playoff push to help fuel future success is just as bad- say hi to this years Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns!! Everything is a crap shoot in the NBA, but if you're smart you play the long game and the odds- and the odds side strongly with assets over chest pounding rhetoric of "we did it the right way?!" One of those you can take to the bank, the other... well I'll let you guess where you can take it.

My 2 cents- take it as such.

You make a good case for high draft picks panning out here but then there's the Olshey method of getting those top picks after they've played a year or two in the league without missing out on the invaluable development tool of playoff experience for the emerging young keepers on the roster. I want a team fighting for the playoffs every season. It comes down to believing history does not have to repeat itself for me.

 

[riverman]

Just wanted to add a shout out to Dan for these threads..I learn something from all of them. Adds a ton of info to the forum for guys like me who are stat challenged. Well done

 

[BonesJones]

Discuss potential trade targets if Olshey goes into full blown buyers mode and what it'd take to acquire them.

 

[Dan Marang]

Just wanted to add a shout out to Dan for these threads..I learn something from all of them. Adds a ton of info to the forum for guys like me who are stat challenged. Well done

Much appreciated! I confess it's something I love to do- and honestly I learn even more in the process. I hold my own beliefs/biases that are, from time to time, completely blown to pieces by irrefutable evidence- and a lot of long held fan dogma falls apart very quickly when you dig deeper. So it's a really fun, albeit sometimes humbling experience to dig so deep into this stuff.

To be completely honest, knowing that people enjoy reading this and get even the littlest bit of enjoyment out of it is really quite rewarding- so thank you very much for the feedback!