[quote name='Teaneck_Armory_Guy']</p>
[quote name='ghoti']</p>
[quote name='jarkid']</p>
[quote name='lukewarmplay']</p>
[quote name='jarkid']</p>
But Collins helped theopponents guards to score so much.</p>
He can't stop the guards or SFs who are running to the paint, he is not intimidating at all. No blocking ability, slow.</p>
The only thing he can do is slipping down, and let them make a three point play.</p>
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So is your argument that when Collins is in the game, the Nets are outscored? Or that another player, taking his place with the starters, would do better?</p>
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when he is in the game, he doesn't help the team big,</p>
I don't like to say when who is in the game, this team is always ..blah blah blah.</p>
Because maybe he sucks, but the other teammates could make over the decifit, then you can see why he starts with the big four.</p>
Against the mediocre team, it seesm ok, but when we are playing the elite team just like Heat, Cavs, or Celtics, he just sucks.</p>
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Dumpy is killing your argument with his pesky facts.</p>
His point is that the Nets are best with Collins and Williams in the game - and the other big men are all terrible - which is pretty obvious for those watching the game without an agenda.</p>
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Sorry. Look, I'm a pretty analytical guy and stats can enlighten you to things you may have missed in the game. So, I'm all for Dumpy going for it. But his understanding of statistical analysis are really lacking imho. Nets only down 6 (or whatever) in 9 minutes of Collins play? Geez...what's that over a 48 minute game? A 33 point loss, no. You've got to have at least a basic understanding of things like, oh, the law of large numbers, cause and effect, correlation coeficients, Bayesian statistics and a whole lot of other things before you put out this latest fad as any kind of meaningful measure. It becomes just that much more misinformation after a while. And, well, it seems to me that you're just reinforcing it.</p>
Looking at these *#&$@ silly plus/minus. Jarkid has actually hit on it many times. Here's the deal. 1st: you need to look at any stat in the long run. So. We've got a good sampling over the course of the year for each player. Individual +/-. Fair enough. But then ask yourself what it's correlated against. Well, how are you going to deny it's dependent on the play of 4 other guys? Perform a simple thought experiment. Take a mediocre player. Put him in a lineup with good players. Take him out when the good players are seeding the second units. Watch as the good players get worse +/- as a result of playing with 2, 3 scrubs at a time. Watch the mediocre player ...in the long run...racking up good +/-. The truly good players get their plusses dampened by the lower proportion of quality that they have around them. Meanwhile, other mediocre players truly suffer by comparison. Not only don't they get the benefit of player with the same % of quality players; they lag behind because of things like lake of confidence, undefined roles, and the like. Who sits at the top or near the top of the plus/minus game? Mr. Mediocre.</p>
O.K. Now let's take a peek at the 2,3,4,5 player combos. I've done a little looking at some of ol' "Professor" Leveno, lenevo or whatever the bejesus his name is. Most of the combos are pretty damn statistically insignificant. Random fluctuations rear their ugly heads. (Example: a team plays it's starting lineup in the 1st game of a playoff series. They get blown out. But next game they win in a rout. Things like that can only balance in the long run.) Worse yet, these combo stats are relative to the competition.</p>
You can prove almost anything with statistics. Just ask any politician.</p>
Not trying to get on your case or Dumpys but please....</p>
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You are completely misstating my position on Collins and the value of the plus-minus figures. But because it seems to be on topic, I'm going to paste in a portion of an e-mail I sent to a friend the other day:</p>
I'm actually more interested in a different sort of problem. I personally think that measuring plus-minus of individual players incorporates too many variables to have much value. I do, however, really like looking at plus-minus of three, four, and five-man combinations. For instance, you could look at the Kidd-Carter-Jefferson-Krstic-Collins lineup and see that they are plus-ten in 150 minutes. I think THAT number needs adjustment, though, to account for the level of the opposition. What I'd do is look at the plus-minus per minute of each five-man unit they face on the court to see how effective they are. For instance, if the Celtics' lineup of Rondo-Allen-Pierce-Garnett-Perkins is plus-600 in 600 minutes over the course of the year, or plus-one per minute, and they outscore the Nets' starting five by 10 points in twenty minutes, I'd award the Nets' unit a plus-ten even though they are losing. Over the course of the year, you'd have a relative value of which five-man units are most effective.</p>
Does that answer your question? It is something no one has ever done. You'd need a heck of a lot of data and some pretty good programming skills, which I don't have.</p>
My point with Collins is more that of logical analysis. Collins is on the team; he does some things well, and some things terrible. Given that he will play 15-25 minutes a night, when should he be used to be most effective, and with which teammates? I personally believe that a Kidd-Carter-Jefferson-Sean-Collins unit would utilize Collins the best. When either Carter or RJ is out of the game, I'd replace Collins with a big man who could score. It's that simple. I've NEVER argued that Collins should play 30 or 35 minutes a game. That would be silly. I don't care whether a player is starting or not. The key question is how to use your assets most effectively. You don't use a hammer to paint a wall even if it is a $100 hammer, and your favorite tool. You have to use your tools in the way that they'd be the most effective. I feel that if Collins played on a unit with the reserves, that unit would be terrible . . . but if Krstic played with the reserves, both the starting unit and the reserve unit would be improved. </p>
and as for my understanding of statistical analysis . . . do you want to see my resume? I'm not going to spend all week on this stuff, you know.</p>