We're 2-3 weeks from deciding on President

[Denny Crane]

I think Obama's ahead. He SHOULD be ahead since he's the incumbent and he won with 53% of the vote in 2008 - that's what has made the polls saying the election is close interesting.

What remains to be seen is whether Obama's convention bounce lasts and whether there's enough voter intensity on the Democrat side to actually elect him.

At a similar point in time, Carter was up against Reagan and Dukakis was up against GHW Bush.

I referred to likely voters (intensity) above.

The polls say...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/.../11/National-Politics/Polling/release_126.xml

Registered Voters: Obama 50, Romney 44
LIKELY Voters: Obama 49, Romney 48

Swing States:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...dministration/daily_swing_state_tracking_poll

In the 11 swing states, the president now attracts 47% of the vote, while Mitt Romney earns 45%. Three percent (3%) plan to vote for some other candidate, while 5% are not sure.

In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.

TIPP Poll:

http://www.tipponline.com/presidenc...ghtens-as-obama-advantage-narrows-to-2-points

Obama 46 Romney 44

 

[Denny Crane]

Nate SilverVerified
‏@fivethirtyeight

Looks like our model has now fully priced in Obama's bounce -- he actually declined slightly in our forecast tonight. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

 

[The_Lillard_King]

Intersting take on the election (southern whites troubled with Romney). Personally I don't think this is just a "south" kind of thinking but nationally this is what many are thinking:

LYNCHBURG, Virginia (Reuters) - Sheryl Harris, a voluble 52-year-old with a Virginia drawl, voted twice for George W. Bush. Raised Baptist, she is convinced -- despite all evidence to the contrary -- that President Barack Obama, a practicing Christian, is Muslim.

So in this year's presidential election, will she support Mitt Romney? Not a chance.

"Romney's going to help the upper class," said Harris, who earns $28,000 a year as activities director of a Lynchburg senior center. "He doesn't know everyday people, except maybe the person who cleans his house."

She'll vote for Obama, she said: "At least he wasn't brought up filthy rich."

White lower- and middle-income voters such as Harris are wild cards in this vituperative presidential campaign. With only a sliver of the electorate in play nationwide, they could be a deciding factor in two southern swing states, Virginia and North Carolina

http://news.yahoo.com/southern-whites-troubled-romneys-wealth-religion-050312040.html



I notice that Oregon is not a taget for either canidate when it comes to campaigning. Is it because Oregon is already a lock for Obama?

 

[Mediocre Man]

Intersting take on the election (southern whites troubled with Romney). Personally I don't think this is just a "south" kind of thinking but nationally this is what many are thinking:

LYNCHBURG, Virginia (Reuters) - Sheryl Harris, a voluble 52-year-old with a Virginia drawl, voted twice for George W. Bush. Raised Baptist, she is convinced -- despite all evidence to the contrary -- that President Barack Obama, a practicing Christian, is Muslim.

So in this year's presidential election, will she support Mitt Romney? Not a chance.

"Romney's going to help the upper class," said Harris, who earns $28,000 a year as activities director of a Lynchburg senior center. "He doesn't know everyday people, except maybe the person who cleans his house."

She'll vote for Obama, she said: "At least he wasn't brought up filthy rich."

White lower- and middle-income voters such as Harris are wild cards in this vituperative presidential campaign. With only a sliver of the electorate in play nationwide, they could be a deciding factor in two southern swing states, Virginia and North Carolina

http://news.yahoo.com/southern-whites-troubled-romneys-wealth-religion-050312040.html



I notice that Oregon is not a taget for either canidate when it comes to campaigning. Is it because Oregon is already a lock for Obama?

I hate thinking like this. We need to pick the best person to get the economy, healthcare and the deficit under control, regardless of their background. Obama has failed miserably at doing those things, so it's time for a new direction.

 

[barfo]

I notice that Oregon is not a taget for either canidate when it comes to campaigning. Is it because Oregon is already a lock for Obama?

Yes. The only way Romney wins Oregon is if he wins in a giant landslide nationally. Either way, Oregon doesn't matter.

barfo

 

[barfo]

I hate thinking like this. We need to pick the best person to get the economy, healthcare and the deficit under control, regardless of their background. Obama has failed miserably at doing those things, so it's time for a new direction.

Romney is not a new direction.

barfo

 

[Eastoff]

I notice that Oregon is not a taget for either canidate when it comes to campaigning. Is it because Oregon is already a lock for Obama?

Yes, the candidates are almost exclusively campaigning in the 11 swing states.

 

[crandc]

So, you are claiming that debates really don't matter?

 

[Eastoff]

I hate thinking like this. We need to pick the best person to get the economy, healthcare and the deficit under control, regardless of their background. Obama has failed miserably at doing those things, so it's time for a new direction.

piggy backing on what barfo said, do you think Romney will run government much different than Bush did? I'm not trying to talk about Bush is evil, I'm just trying to say I think Bush is a proto-typical republican for economic policies, and it didn't (in my opinion) make for a great country.

 

[crandc]

Westnob, IMO, Bush, while I disagreed with him on everything, did seem to have some firm ideas. Romney has 20 positions on everything to the point where some are cynically suggesting a debate between Romney and Romney. I think he'd be a tool. Grover Norquist, to whom many in Congress have literally pledged allegience, said all the president needs is a hand to sign whatever legislation he's given - not exact words but close. I do think he'd be like Bush in the idea that if you keep giving to the rich, somehow the whole country gets better.

 

[Haakzilla]

 

[Mediocre Man]

piggy backing on what barfo said, do you think Romney will run government much different than Bush did? I'm not trying to talk about Bush is evil, I'm just trying to say I think Bush is a proto-typical republican for economic policies, and it didn't (in my opinion) make for a great country.

I'm not saying Romney is necessarily the right guy, but Obama has proved he is not the right guy. At least to me.

 

[Eastoff]

I'm not saying Romney is necessarily the right guy, but Obama has proved he is not the right guy. At least to me.

Yeah, I understand the logic that "This seems bad; I don't think I should keep trying bad."

 

[MickZagger]

Well that's depressing. Whoever it is I hope they have a different plan than the one utilized in the last 4 years

Yeah, they can go back to the strategy of the 8 years prior to that. Ya know, how the mess all started?

 

[maxiep]

Intersting take on the election (southern whites troubled with Romney). Personally I don't think this is just a "south" kind of thinking but nationally this is what many are thinking:

LYNCHBURG, Virginia (Reuters) - Sheryl Harris, a voluble 52-year-old with a Virginia drawl, voted twice for George W. Bush. Raised Baptist, she is convinced -- despite all evidence to the contrary -- that President Barack Obama, a practicing Christian, is Muslim.

So in this year's presidential election, will she support Mitt Romney? Not a chance.

"Romney's going to help the upper class," said Harris, who earns $28,000 a year as activities director of a Lynchburg senior center. "He doesn't know everyday people, except maybe the person who cleans his house."

She'll vote for Obama, she said: "At least he wasn't brought up filthy rich."

White lower- and middle-income voters such as Harris are wild cards in this vituperative presidential campaign. With only a sliver of the electorate in play nationwide, they could be a deciding factor in two southern swing states, Virginia and North Carolina

http://news.yahoo.com/southern-whites-troubled-romneys-wealth-religion-050312040.html



I notice that Oregon is not a taget for either canidate when it comes to campaigning. Is it because Oregon is already a lock for Obama?

Here is where the campaigning will occur: Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida. All other states have been decided.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Many of my clients and neighbors are conservative Christian Republicans who pretty much abhor Obama. That said, several have expressed serious resentment that their party is forcing them to vote for Obama as the lesser evil since they regard the Mormon religion as blasphemous and a direct attack on their beliefs. God before country.

Without getting into a religious debate here (and I, too, know people like you're describing) Obama's public comments on his particular beliefs are pretty abhorrent and heretical to a bible-believing Christian. Not that that should stop anyone who doesn't believe in the Spaghetti Monster from voting for him (or bypassing "religion" and voting on the guy you think will do best for the country), but that's another take on what "conservative Christians" believe. And for some (not me), they're planning on sitting this vote out, which I think is also pretty bad.

EDIT: I'll amend (without deleting) to say that his comments up to 2010 were such, and maybe they were colored by his involvement for so many years with Rev. Wright, Social Justice, "Black" Theology and the like. His prayers at the Last National Easter breakfast (?) were in keeping what I'm ok with from a President saying: acknowledging his faith, what Easter means to him and letting it go from there. I don't need a prophet for President.

 

[barfo]

Without getting into a religious debate here (and I, too, know people like you're describing) Obama's public comments on his particular beliefs are pretty abhorrent and heretical to a bible-believing Christian.

I probably wasn't paying attention, since when politicians talk about religion I hear "blah blah blah", but what did he say that was abhorrent/heretical to you?

barfo

 

[crandc]

As I see it, Romney's problem is that he originally stated the election as a referendum on Obama and said to vote for him because he isn't Obama. Saying "vote for me because I'm not the other person" almost never works. Because unless everyone absolutely hates the other person, they want to know "how are you better?" There are some people who absolutely hate Obama, ironically based on a caricature rather than his actual policies, but they are not enough to win. So then Romney picked Ryan and we hear that now it's an issues election. Trouble is Ryan's positions on issues are very unpopular: the Ryan budget that would replace Medicare with vouchers for private insurance, drastically cut taxes on the very wealthy, and drastically cut every program from public safety to highways to education that most people like; the "personhood" amendment that Ryan cosponsored that would outlaw all abortion without exception, most forms of birth control and in vitro fertilization, the attempt by Ryan to redefine rape in a way that would make the majority of rapes "not rape". Then when asked about these issues Romney keeps saying they are side issues. The real issue is Barack Obama. So it's back to vote for me because I'm not the other guy.

I think "likeability" is crap, a person can be affable and make a crummy president or dour and make a good one - would anyone claim the affable George W Bush was a better president than the dour Abraham Lincoln? (That being said, it's not true McCain was more likeable than Obama. McCain was respected but never drew the crowds or the rapturous enthusiasm Obama did, and it wasn't just "first black president". Charisma is something you have or don't. Obama does, Bill Clinton does, McCain does not, Sarah Palin does but it could not overcome her obvious lack of qualification). What DOES matter is if people think the candidate can relate to them. Over and over Romney comes off as not just rich but totally out of touch. Ridiculing the cookies a supporter made, ridiculing the rain ponchos worn by NASCAR fans, talking about his wife's two Cadillacs and his car elevator. No one minds a rich person with the "common touch" but Romney totally lacks that. Poll after poll show that when it comes to rating who "shares your values" or "understands your problems" Obama is way ahead.

 

[maxiep]

I think the election can be both a choice and a referendum election. I have never understood why pundits claim it has to be one or the other.

 

[maxiep]

By the way, I understand why people don't like Paul Ryan's policies because of their perceived penury, but what's the alternative? As was written by David Burge, "Do you know what will end Medicare as we know it? Medicare as we know it."

Herbert Stein, the famous economist (and father of Ben Stein), postulated that: "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop". He presented the idea in the vein that oftentimes if there are objectionable and unsustainable policies, you don't need to do anything because they will die on their own. However, we all want to see Medicare continue to exist. The problem is that Medicare as it is currently constructed cannot continue. Changes will have to be made, and we will have to live with the idea that the younger generations will have to pay more. It sucks, but the people we elected have overpromised.

 

[jlprk]

By the way, I understand why people don't like Paul Ryan's policies because of their perceived penury, but what's the alternative? As was written by David Burge, "Do you know what will end Medicare as we know it? Medicare as we know it."

Herbert Stein, the famous economist (and father of Ben Stein), postulated that: "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop". He presented the idea in the vein that oftentimes if there are objectionable and unsustainable policies, you don't need to do anything because they will die on their own. However, we all want to see Medicare continue to exist. The problem is that Medicare as it is currently constructed cannot continue. Changes will have to be made, and we will have to live with the idea that the younger generations will have to pay more. It sucks, but the people we elected have overpromised.

It's vague criticism like that that loses Republicans respect as the "No" Party. Democrats put out long, detailed programs. Republican frauds like Ryan respond with criticism, but say that they don't have time to run the numbers and be specific.

Why aren't Republican think tanks like Cato publishing papers full of budget numbers, advocating a return to the living structures prevalent before FDR--the non-nuclear family, the ad hoc work group commune, and the large orphanage? This is what's coming up in the 2030s. Start planning now for the death of Social Security.

The cliff is when the country owes so much interest, that it is of no help anymore to return rich people's taxes to where they were before Reagan. That's when we're really out of options, and it's coming up around 2020.

 

[maxiep]

It's vague criticism like that that loses Republicans respect as the "No" Party. Democrats put out long, detailed programs. Republican frauds like Ryan respond with criticism, but say that they don't have time to run the numbers and be specific.

Why aren't Republican think tanks like Cato publishing papers full of budget numbers, advocating a return to the living structures prevalent before FDR--the non-nuclear family, the ad hoc work group commune, and the large orphanage? This is what's coming up in the 2030s. Start planning now for the death of Social Security.

The cliff is when the country owes so much interest, that it is of no help anymore to return rich people's taxes to where they were before Reagan. That's when we're really out of options, and it's coming up around 2020.

Yeah, you're right. Neither Romney nor Ryan have ever put out detailed plans. Oops.

http://www.mittromney.com/sites/def...America-PlanForJobsAndEconomicGrowth-Full.pdf

http://budget.house.gov/uploadedfiles/pathtoprosperity2013.pdf

It must be our Dear Leaders Obama and Reid that are supplying the ones with all the numbers. I can't believe those obstructionist Republicans are keeping President Obama's budget from being passed. Oh, wait, his budget didn't receive a single Democrat vote either. And those terrible Republicans are keeping Harry Reid from passing a budget in the Senate. Oh, wait. Harry Reid hasn't even allowed a budget to be voted upon for the past three years.

Of course, it's all the Republicans fault.

 

[jlprk]

I didn't know...Well this is great! You can tell me how much, in the Republican plan, the average recipient will lose in his Social Security check, and how much in his average Medicare benefits. I'm all ears.

 

[Eastoff]

Yeah, you're right. Neither Romney nor Ryan have ever put out detailed plans. Oops.

http://www.mittromney.com/sites/def...America-PlanForJobsAndEconomicGrowth-Full.pdf

http://budget.house.gov/uploadedfiles/pathtoprosperity2013.pdf

It must be our Dear Leaders Obama and Reid that are supplying the ones with all the numbers. I can't believe those obstructionist Republicans are keeping President Obama's budget from being passed. Oh, wait, his budget didn't receive a single Democrat vote either. And those terrible Republicans are keeping Harry Reid from passing a budget in the Senate. Oh, wait. Harry Reid hasn't even allowed a budget to be voted upon for the past three years.

Of course, it's all the Republicans fault.

From what I understand, Romney and Ryan have repeatedly distanced themselves from the "Path to Prosperity" as not the budget they would use. Mostly because it has stuff they don't want to deal with on a national level.

 

[maxiep]

I didn't know...Well this is great! You can tell me how much, in the Republican plan, the average recipient will lose in his Social Security check, and how much in his average Medicare benefits. I'm all ears.

At some point we have to pay for what we promise. If we can't pay the tab, we have to do with less. Sorry, honey, but you're just going to have to order the chicken instead of the foie gras.

 

[maxiep]

From what I understand, Romney and Ryan have repeatedly distanced themselves from the "Path to Prosperity" as not the budget they would use. Mostly because it has stuff they don't want to deal with on a national level.

It's a presidential campaign, not a vice presidential one. Romney has his own plan, and Ryan is now beholden to Romney to support it.

The point I was trying to make is you couldn't have a clearer choice when it comes to detailing their positions. One side has an actual plan where they actually bothered to do some math and accounting, and the other presents a plan of rainbows, lollypops and unicorns and pretends that hoping, wishing and praying we had an endless supply of money is a strategy.

 

[jlprk]

At some point we have to pay for what we promise. If we can't pay the tab, we have to do with less. Sorry, honey, but you're just going to have to order the chicken instead of the foie gras.

It's vague criticism like that that loses Republicans respect as the "No" Party. Democrats put out long, detailed programs. Republican frauds like Ryan respond with criticism, but say that they don't have time to run the numbers and be specific.

...

 

[maxiep]

...

I'm reminded of the woman who goes to the butcher to purchase a chicken. She asks the butcher if she could examine the chicken and the butcher complies. She tears off the skin, splits it open, rips off the wings and the legs and pulls out the backbone. She then recoils in horror, "This chicken isn't satisfactory! There's a small spot inside the carcass!" She throws the mutilated chicken back at the butcher. The butcher calmly replies, "Madam, could you pass the same test?"

In this case, the Republican side has presented so much more specificity and willingness to actually try to tackle the fiscal issues facing us that the Democrats need to at least make an attempt before they can criticize what the GOP has done.